Selling up Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 BBC loves to talk about how the worst is over (to them that means the pace of decline and not decline per se), but I don't remember them talking about the economy looking a low [sic] worse when growth was slowing a couple of years ago. Funny that. Well observed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 I presume this is the highest annual rolling fall in GDP on record?And we still have Q 2 2008's zero to be replaced by a negative in this quarter to make next times release even worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Hatred Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 No return to boom and bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyscam Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 (edited) DOW tracker?It is quite amazing that the markets have not faltered at all on this figure. Having heard the BBC this morning they were selling the less bad spin and I should imagine that is what people were expecting. it will be a theme of the year that everything is less bad (even though they are still dire) and the markets will be pumped on that type of news. Today we get somthing that is massively worse than expected and the market marches on because of the DOW'S performance last night and the DOW futures. That's because these markets are being engineered higher to suck in the last of the suckers before they collapse the whole thing - we are all being played for fools because most of us are fools - too blind and preoccupied with our own narrow view of the world too see the bigger picture. I could elaborate but I can't be bothered nor do I want to be labelled a crank, the information is out there if you a) can first suspend your disbelief and be bothered to look for it. Mark my words, being worried about being able to buy a house will seem insignificant to what is coming and most of us are mentally completely unprepared. Good luck to us all coz we're going to f*****g need it. Edited April 24, 2009 by moneyscam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Courtesy of the BBC, this is a better graph as it shows the size relative to the 90's recession, which we appear to have beaten already. Proof things atren't as bad as the 90s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 I can't be bothered nor do I want to be labelled a crank, the information is out there if you a) can first suspend your disbelief and be bothered to look for it. Don't worry I am already labelled a crank for my many market manipulation threads. I just try and be a bit more subtle these days. Some peoples faith in the market is so strong they feel insulted when you try to explain the manipulation that goes on at every level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Hatred Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Wait, I've just had an idea! By simply saying the phrase "green shoots" over and over again, it will all go away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Don't worry, before we know it will be time for the Olympics. That will really cheer us all up! oh, trust me I can't wait. It will be HILARIOUS. could be the first one in history, to be cancelled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Courtesy of the BBC, this is a better graph as it shows the size relative to the 90's recession, which we appear to have beaten already. Do you think Darling is basing his estimated 2010 recovery on the fact that there were 5 negative quarters in the 90's recession before the resumption of growth? To be honest, I can imagine that's exactly what he's done. Very basic analysis if so but it really wouldn't surprise me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Don't worry I am already labelled a crank for my many market manipulation threads. I just try and be a bit more subtle these days. Some peoples faith in the market is so strong they feel insulted when you try to explain the manipulation that goes on at every level. I prefer the brutally honest, realist, full TFH approach personally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BalancedBear Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 (edited) And who are the muppets on this forum who a few weeks weeks ago were gloating about Germany predicting a 5% annual decline, compared to a forecast for us of 3%. At the current rate we could end up with close to an 8% decline. These government forecasts are just pure spin. The budget is already out of date, as Darling said he had based this year's decline on the decline in the last quarter, as the decline has now gathered pace, the revised borrowing for this year is bound to be over £200 billion at least rather than the 175 he was on about. Edited April 24, 2009 by BalancedBear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 (edited) Hi "The biggest contributor to the decline was the manufacturing sector, which shrank by 6.2% in the first three months of the year, having decreased by 4.9% in the previous quarter. "The last six months has seen the sharpest fall [in GDP] on record and the manufacturing number... is a record," Jon Beadle from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) told the BBC" Still, they're opening a new coffee shop in town. That makes 5 in all, a 20% increase! I'm telling you, our expertise in skinny-latte-construction will see us through! EDIT splung Edited April 24, 2009 by dryrot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 And who are the muppets on this forum who a few weeks weeks ago were gloating about Germany predicting a 5% annual decline, compared to a forecast for us of 3%. At the current rate we could end up with close to an 8% decline. These government forecasts are just pure spin.The budget is already out of date, as Darling said he had based this year's decline on the decline in the last quarter, as the decline has now gathered pace, the revised borrowing for this year is bound to be over £200 billion at least rather than the 175 he was on about. yup, they keep saying that the UK is better placed. That is of course utter b0ll0x. It's the debt per capita, currency collapse & the fact that we import everything that render the UK absolutely & completely fooked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 can I also just say: muwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Courtesy of the BBC, this is a better graph as it shows the size relative to the 90s recession, which we appear to have beaten already. Let us not forget that a significant part of the quarterly growth during the last decade has been down to MEWing and personal debt (credit card spending), think also the govt (and business) tendency to buy now pay later. Effectively, this 'growth' has been borrowed from the future, with little basis on any 'real' wealth creating. It was always going to end in tears, because it was illusory and unsustainable. This is why attempts to make things better through MORE DEBT - 'trying to get the housing market moving'; 'trying to get the banks lending again... ' - as opposed to genuine wealth creation, will end in failure. The system is broken. The solutions do not deal with the real problem - DEBT and unrealistic growth expectations; and corrupt and incompetent governance. The ridiculous return to growth (3.5%) touted by puppet Darling during the budget has no basis in reality because there is no genuine wealth creation underpinning it. As has been reported in the press and debated here, debt, the interest on that huge debt, the imbalance and dependence on the public (and pseudo-public sector), and the lack of genuine UK based wealth creation will cripple the country for a long time to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 That's because these markets are being engineered higher to suck in the last of the suckers before they collapse the whole thing - we are all being played for fools because most of us are fools - too blind and preoccupied with our own narrow view of the world too see the bigger picture. I could elaborate but I can't be bothered nor do I want to be labelled a crank, the information is out there if you a) can first suspend your disbelief and be bothered to look for it.Mark my words, being worried about being able to buy a house will seem insignificant to what is coming and most of us are mentally completely unprepared. Good luck to us all coz we're going to f*****g need it. Completely agree with this. Indeed, lately I have been asking myself if I am crazy because it seems that everyone else has a much more positive view of the future - stocks, houses, jobs, etc. It just seems to me totally illogical that things are not going to get a lot grimmer, but the stock market and people's behaviour in general seems to be quite the opposite. As we all know on here, it's hard to be a contrarian, but I keep looking at the facts (like the graph above) and can't help concluding this is going to be the worst recession in my lifetime (and I've seen a few), and yet I keep asking myself if I am wrong because people out there still seem to be more interested in trivia than their future economic plight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Completely agree with this. Indeed, lately I have been asking myself if I am crazy because it seems that everyone else has a much more positive view of the future - stocks, houses, jobs, etc. It just seems to me totally illogical that things are not going to get a lot grimmer, but the stock market and people's behaviour in general seems to be quite the opposite. As we all know on here, it's hard to be a contrarian, but I keep looking at the facts (like the graph above) and can't help concluding this is going to be the worst recession in my lifetime (and I've seen a few), and yet I keep asking myself if I am wrong because people out there still seem to be more interested in trivia than their future economic plight. start saying depression & get a head start on the rest. some nice graphs'n'charts on this link, courtesy of p.p. A Tale of 2 depressions It has been posted a few weeks back, but worth a look & a read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BalancedBear Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 yup, they keep saying that the UK is better placed. That is of course utter b0ll0x. It's the debt per capita, currency collapse & the fact that we import everything that render the UK absolutely & completely fooked. Totally agree with that, just wonder how long it will take before the "economists" see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Totally agree with that, just wonder how long it will take before the "economists" see it. from their rear view mirror. words like: shocked unexpected unprecedented global problems useless, VI set of tw4ts the vast majority of them. Some of those economists look about 12 ffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 start saying depression & get a head start on the rest.some nice graphs'n'charts on this link, courtesy of p.p. A Tale of 2 depressions It has been posted a few weeks back, but worth a look & a read. That's what I've been doing, but despite the fact most of my friends now admit I was right about the economy, they think the recession is pretty much at its worst and that my depression terms is just me being a doom-monger. Plus ça change I suppose. Thanks for the link - missed that - interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 from their rear view mirror.words like: shocked unexpected unprecedented global problems useless, VI set of tw4ts the vast majority of them. Some of those economists look about 12 ffs. You forgot "Nobody saw it coming". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BalancedBear Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 You forgot "Nobody saw it coming". That is the classic one really. Perhaps they should view this forum, or read the stuff printed by people who did predict the situation. What they should say is that nobody paid to see it coming by governments saw it coming, everyone else is just a nobody who should never be listened to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 (edited) oh, trust me I can't wait. It will be HILARIOUS. could be the first one in history, to be cancelled. No, it wouldn't (the Olympics are the epitome of tedium); no it isn't. The 1944 Summer Olympic games was cancelled on account of World War II. London was the host - it was re-scheduled for 1948. Edited April 24, 2009 by A.steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Ouch indeed. -1.9% quarterly is 7.38% annualised. If this keeps up this year my prediction of -8% will be correct. 2009 predictions Luckily though our financial genius of a chancellor says it will be over by christmas, so I will have egg on my face by the end of the year and my predictions will look ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 No, it wouldn't (the Olympics are the epitome of tedium); no it isn't. The 1944 Summer Olympic games was cancelled on account of World War II. London was the host - it was re-scheduled for 1948. cheers for that. Actually i did watch a program on tv, last year iirc, that went through the history of this BUT I forgot tbh. I must admit I hadn't realised until I watched that prog that anything like this had happened before. irrc, the UK judged itself & that was our best medal collection so far. so looks like we might repeat history in more ways than one then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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