Rightmove.

[Harry Monk]

When I buy a house it will be in CT11, Ramsgate. Prob 2011, I think, in time for the high-speed rail link to London which opens in 2012 because I think the crash will be over by then and the rail link will improve Ramsgate as a place as well as causing localised HPI- my next purchase and subsequent sale at the next peak will be my pension when I retire in 2024.

For about 6 months I have checked Rightmove every week for houses under £100,000 in the CT11 postcode area.

There were none until about November, when the first one arrived. At Chrismas there were six, last week there were thirteen and this week there are twenty.

This tends to suggest that prices are falling and that the rate of fall is accelerating.

I know I'm not the only person here who does this- I almost certainly got the idea from here- and I wonder what the experience of others is?

[Y-QUERK]

Yeah, Rightmove lies to me too.

[bazzer]

I believe they work out their statistics in an... "interesting" way. I assumed they get all of their houses, add up the prices, and divide by the amount of houses there are. I'm pretty certain that the average price they give is only for new instructions. It ignores any reductions that may arise later.

Infact, here's a quote:

The March edition of the Rightmove.co.uk House Price Index is now available. Based on circa 90% of newly marketed property

More:

The index differs from other house price indicators in that it reflects asking prices when properties first come onto the market, rather than those recorded by lenders during the mortgage application process or final sales prices reported to the Land Registry.

So... It's useless.

[piece of paper]

When I buy a house it will be in CT11, Ramsgate. Prob 2011, I think, in time for the high-speed rail link to London which opens in 2012 because I think the crash will be over by then and the rail link will improve Ramsgate as a place as well as causing localised HPI- my next purchase and subsequent sale at the next peak will be my pension when I retire in 2024.

For about 6 months I have checked Rightmove every week for houses under £100,000 in the CT11 postcode area.

There were none until about November, when the first one arrived. At Chrismas there were six, last week there were thirteen and this week there are twenty.

This tends to suggest that prices are falling and that the rate of fall is accelerating.

I know I'm not the only person here who does this- I almost certainly got the idea from here- and I wonder what the experience of others is?

There is a big storm due around January 2011. Ramsgate will be washed away.

p-o-p

[alwightchav!]

When I buy a house it will be in CT11, Ramsgate. Prob 2011, I think, in time for the high-speed rail link to London which opens in 2012 because I think the crash will be over by then and the rail link will improve Ramsgate as a place as well as causing localised HPI- my next purchase and subsequent sale at the next peak will be my pension when I retire in 2024.

For about 6 months I have checked Rightmove every week for houses under £100,000 in the CT11 postcode area.

There were none until about November, when the first one arrived. At Chrismas there were six, last week there were thirteen and this week there are twenty.

This tends to suggest that prices are falling and that the rate of fall is accelerating.

I know I'm not the only person here who does this- I almost certainly got the idea from here- and I wonder what the experience of others is?

Try Gillingham or Chatham if you dare

[Mixle]

Property bee is spotting some 50% falls

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-22670183.html

Unfortunately, there is ages yet until this happens to houses around me.

[VacantPossession]

When I buy a house it will be in CT11, Ramsgate. Prob 2011, I think, in time for the high-speed rail link to London which opens in 2012 because I think the crash will be over by then and the rail link will improve Ramsgate as a place as well as causing localised HPI- my next purchase and subsequent sale at the next peak will be my pension when I retire in 2024.

For about 6 months I have checked Rightmove every week for houses under £100,000 in the CT11 postcode area.

There were none until about November, when the first one arrived. At Chrismas there were six, last week there were thirteen and this week there are twenty.

This tends to suggest that prices are falling and that the rate of fall is accelerating.

I know I'm not the only person here who does this- I almost certainly got the idea from here- and I wonder what the experience of others is?

Since you are already planning for 2024, (personally I cannot possibly predict anything beyond next Friday) you are clearly someone who is either deeply cautious or frightened, or both. Join the club. If you feel insecure extrapolating then this is the last place you should visit. This is not a Which-magazine-type consumer advice service for little men and women seeking personal security about the future. It is a full blooded discussion forum about the current house price crash and banking meltdown, and it is highly critical.

Why not write to some nice magazine and ask for some comforting advice?

VP

[alwightchav!]

Since you are already planning for 2024, (personally I cannot possibly predict anything beyond next Friday) you are clearly someone who is either deeply cautious or frightened, or both. Join the club. If you feel insecure extrapolating then this is the last place you should visit. This is not a Which-magazine-type consumer advice service for little men and women seeking personal security about the future. It is a full blooded discussion forum about the current house price crash and banking meltdown, and it is highly critical.

Why not write to some nice magazine and ask for some comforting advice?

VP

harsh

[XswampyX]

115000 to 95000 int the space of 6 months. nearly 20% off.

'tis a shithole though!

The right move index increasing just means that more expensive properties are coming to the market, not that the old ones have a greater price? If so then the people further up the ladder/snake are starting to feel the pinch, and want to get off.

Prices are falling......

[VacantPossession]

harsh

I thought so too. But this is a thin ended wedge. The last thing anyone should wish for HPC.co.uk is that it becomes the Vincent Dugelby (or however his name is spelled) Money Box Live repository of consumer advice. There are thousands of mainstream places (who already are sycophantic to the government/banking line) which comfort those who really think they can predict a retirement 16 years hence and want to be assured of this and that.

His questions were absurd and deserved to be zapped in the bud. Sorry.

VP

[porca misèria]

115000 to 95000 int the space of 6 months. nearly 20% off.

Hey, that's local, and I could afford it for cash

Let me guess: that's the (horrible) main road it's on. And is it safe from contamination, subsidence and flooding that afflict some Gunny properties?

might have to buy something like that just to qualify for benefits if I get kicked out of a job

Mind you, that's a very modest reduction. The initial price looks good for the area: in 2005-7 it would likely have been 150k even on that main road.

[edit] I don't need to repeat the whole image in quoting swampy's post.

Edited March 18, 2009 by niq

[redwing]

Refering back to the OP.

I have been logging my local area since January 2007; checking the total inventory and median price each week.

It's been an interesting exercise and I have seen some movement in these asking prices this last month or so.

I think you have to keep in the back of your mind always:

1. the prices are asking prices and there it takes a long time before the actual prices are published. I can't be ar5ed to match asking to selling prices for individual houses.

2. the search is only as good as the data. I wonder if agents are putting all their properties onto Rightmove or if all agents in my area are always represented.

3. my measure of average price is the median (because this is pretty easy to calculate as the properties are listed in price order). So the fall I've seen recently could be down to a mix change rather than a real fall in asking prices. - although remembering what similar houses were asking at peak in summer 2007 confirms that asking prices really are falling.

4. So, use Rightmove as one of your indicators of how your local market is performing.

[Harry Monk]

Since you are already planning for 2024, (personally I cannot possibly predict anything beyond next Friday) you are clearly someone who is either deeply cautious or frightened, or both. Join the club. If you feel insecure extrapolating then this is the last place you should visit. This is not a Which-magazine-type consumer advice service for little men and women seeking personal security about the future. It is a full blooded discussion forum about the current house price crash and banking meltdown, and it is highly critical.

Why not write to some nice magazine and ask for some comforting advice?

VP

No, I can just see things in advance of them happening. I thought everybody here could?

Edit... missed the bit where you said you couldn't see beyond next Friday.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Harry Monk

[deeplyblue]

I believe they work out their statistics in an... "interesting" way. I assumed they get all of their houses, add up the prices, and divide by the amount of houses there are. I'm pretty certain that the average price they give is only for new instructions. It ignores any reductions that may arise later.

In fact, here's a quote:

The March edition of the Rightmove.co.uk House Price Index is now available. Based on circa 90% of newly marketed property

More:

The index differs from other house price indicators in that it reflects asking prices when properties first come onto the market, rather than those recorded by lenders during the mortgage application process or final sales prices reported to the Land Registry.

So... It's useless.

No, not useless at all.

Firstly your critique is of the monthly summary of RM stats. This gives you a strictly limited view, but that view does have its uses - especially when you add in Property Bee. Also if you read the report that goes with the statistics, that tends to take into account movements in the prices of property after they have been marketed for a while. Amongst other things the RM stats can give you a measure of how sellers view the market initially - usually unrealistically! I find their monthly analysis useful also, for example the February 09 commentary includes:

In spite of 25,000 out of 28,000 potential homemovers in the Rightmove Survey stating it was a bad time to sell, sellers appear to have ignored their fellow homemovers’ assessment of market conditions and put prices up. While sellers have been more conservative in their New Year bullishness than last year, they may regret not pricing more aggressively to capitalise on the spring surge in buyer interest. Sales are being achieved at around 25% below peak prices, yet new sellers coming to market are starting out asking an average of only 10% less. Serious sellers need to set their initial asking price more realistically to get one up on the competition and take advantage of increasing numbers of bargain-hunters who have set their own price floor ahead of the return of mainstream purchasers.

They are, therefore, keen to put their figures into some kind of context - which is very useful, since they tend to have some ideas as to what EAs are actually reporting, without being desperate to put an EA-positive spin (i.e. prices going up!) on it.

RM, in other words, are one of the forces pushing hard for realism is house pricing. They are not trying to force prices up or down, I think. They are a VI, but their best interests are served by a higher volume of sales, which means larger numbers of sellers advertising on their site, and larger numbers of buyers visiting the site. ATM larger volume means sellers pricing to buyers' expectations - or initial prices going down.

Aside from the stats generated by the RM organisation, the individual can also use RM as the OP has, to track the numbers of properties coming into the market - or being sold. You can do this quite efficiently by setting up a saved search and then running the same search, say, once a week, adjusting it for multiple entries and noting the results. It's not completely scientific, because of re-listings etc, but it can give you an idea of what new properties are coming on to the market, or - in the case of the OP - how many properties are in a particular market at a particular point in time and within a particular price bracket. This use of RM has nothing to do with their published monthly statistics, but with the details of the individual properties they advertise. If you are organised enough to sort the stats with Property Bee and download them as a csv file, you can even put them into Excel for analysis.

Horses for courses.

db

[rw42]

As a contingency, how far behind schedule are you anticipating the '2012' high speed rail link will be?

[gilf]

As a contingency, how far behind schedule are you anticipating the '2012' high speed rail link will be?

I assume this is the same one that I emailed Damien Green (Ashford MP) about back in 2003. Which was due to open in 2004?

Basically my letter was asking why the residents of Ashford had endured years of disruption while the high speed rail link was being built and they were thinking of changing their mind and not using it for domestic services.

Now 5 years later there still isn't a domestic service on that line (due to come on line later this year, with a high premium).

[chewy22]

Refering back to the OP.

2. the search is only as good as the data. I wonder if agents are putting all their properties onto Rightmove or if all agents in my area are always represented.

Something I have spotted although not all estate agents use rightmove I have seen an example on my street that has a sold sign outside, the same estate agent have many houses posted on right move but this one example disappears as soon as the sold sign went up.

[dispossessed]

Harry Monk, your signature is priceless. Would make a great live sticky.

[Harry Monk]

I've just re-checked and apparently it starts in 2009. I know the trains are already here and under test. But that's not why I'm buying in Ramsgate, I've lived there before and it's where I want to live.

Certainly seems to me that asking prices are falling there