Georgia O'Keeffe Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 It was certainly an interesting evening. Lots of technicals to indicate still falling however price of course indicates potnetial retest 1112. If breaks and holds above 1118 then possible retest 1150. Exactly as I wrote some days ago - 1112 a good short with stop 1123. yep, yesterday was interesting, lots of the rallies into early morning reached neat fib retraces. Personally i am of the same opinion as early Jan of a 15 % ABC correction on most indices and see the rallies of the last couple of weeks as countertrend consolidations, particularly good counts on the Dax and Honk Kong, im sticking with the original shorts open at this point but i get a sense that today is quite important Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 I'll stick with my previous call until I've reason to change. Testing highs within 3 weeks possibly? What is that 'reason to change' in your plan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 What is that 'reason to change' in your plan? Essentially if price strength fails to keep up with market internals strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 (edited) You've been had... http://ftalphaville....shall-collapse/ EDIT: more here...could model yourself on him? http://ftalphaville....e/?inprogress=1 The septic bow-tie wearing snake oil salesman or the travels between Milton Keynes and Monaco going thin on top seminar selling snake oil salesman? Did I not mention my Monaco connections before? Edit: Your dollar adjusted SPX does look interesting DJIA - Thanks for posting! Edited February 26, 2010 by Red Kharma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 since when he has been involved in mobile communications, premium rate telephony, interactive gaming, publishing and television and financial trading Translation: since when he has bought a mobile phone, rung 0898 chat lines, played COD on his PS3, blogged, watched SKY and opened an IG index account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Critical Insight on Where to Invest and How to Protect Assets Offered (MMD Newswire) August 12, 2009 – - Multi-millionaire trader, Vince Stanzione, predicts a lot more doom before the next boom. This veteran trader is warning stock market investors that the worst is yet to come and now is the time to start getting out of stocks not in. His proprietary trading model calls for a fall of at least 20% in the S&P 500 within the next 4weeks and for a sharp up move in the US Dollar and T Bonds. http://vince777.wordpress.com/2009/08/16/stock-market-rally-on-borrowed-time-warns-multi-millionaire-trader/ He's sh1t then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 (edited) we'll see after that overweight female pumps out a tune I s'pose. I hope he's sh1t - but that's not the same as he is. But on the balance of probability I would guess he is. Even if he's right, it'll be luck. Whereas if we're right, then then clearly that will be a matter of skill - especially given these tremendous headwinds. Not feeling all that comfortable today tbh. Better make another cup of tea. The article was 12th August 2009. Shall we have a snowy scene from Chamonix ? Check out the campervan half buried in the foreground......... Edited February 26, 2010 by Red Kharma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 (edited) more headwinds - existing home sales about 0.5m down EDIT: I can't believe what is being thrown at the market and it just won't shift down.Thus far - but do we reach a point where enough is enough? Perhaps so. But the signs are still saying 'buy' weakness to me. Maybe there's an expectation of a denouement to the Greek tragedy in the pipeline? Maybe it's waiting on a dollar retracement? Edited February 26, 2010 by Red Kharma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonguest Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 (edited) Perhaps so. But the signs are still saying 'buy' weakness to me. Maybe there's an expectation of a denouement to the Greek tragedy in the pipeline? Maybe it's waiting on a dollar retracement? presumably (throwing in my amateur opinion).... SOME of the 'support' for the FTSE is coming on the back of the decline in the pound over last month or so? PLUS, it is last day of the month as well? Edited February 26, 2010 by anonguest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Master - please send me your address so I can send you a cheque. My usual seminar fee is £3,995 but since it's you I can give you my 'gold' client discount so that's a remarkable £2,995 (cash preferred, used notes, low denomination). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 The 6 phases that define a Bear and a Bull Market Bear: Warning Phase: Close below the 50-period MA. Close above the 200-period MA. The 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA. Distribution Phase: Close below the 50-period MA. Close below the 200-period MA. The 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA. Bearish Phase: Close below the 50-period MA. Close below the 200-perod MA. The 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA. Bull: Recovery Phase : Close above the 50-period MA. Close below the 200-period MA. The 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA Accumulation Phase: Close above the 50-period MA. Close above the 200-period MA. The 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA. Bullish Phase: Close above the 50-period MA. Close above the 200-perod MA. The 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted February 28, 2010 Share Posted February 28, 2010 (edited) Mmm, we've had one hell of a ~21 day warning phase and a little slip will put many indexes back there. ADX still indicates a down trend just below 20, currently getting more shallow though. Guess we'll probably know next week, either I'll be blown out of my small short position or not . Any more indicators to consider? Edited February 28, 2010 by DarkHorseWaits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 28, 2010 Share Posted February 28, 2010 I'm hoping Merv's got a plan.......... Oil in sterlings is now getting into the zone it was in Spring '08 just before the world fell apart. How does demand destruction work in an economy with no growth and an insolvent bankstering system? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC:$XBP&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p73525179715 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Germany vs. Greece To be is to do - Aristotle To do is to be - Jean Paul Sartre Do be do be do - Frank Sinatra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 FTSE may be up but banking and insurance shares are very down. Financials often lead. Also, $ on very good bid. I can't see the bull picture at all. We are very strongly in Bear Warning and rapidly moving to Bear Distribution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Pru cash call for mega acquisition Yeah, that'll be the reason why $ is up 0.75% as I type. Yep, that's it. USD index chart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headrow Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Pru cash call for mega acquisition Why can't i trade my Prudential shares? I've got 5000 which i bought at 257 . I'd rather not fund their take-over , how long will the shares be suspended and will they tank as soon as the market is opened for them again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 (edited) The FT has just received an email from Jim Rogers retracting his retraction that sterling will crash within two weeks (not really - I made that up). Edited March 1, 2010 by Red Kharma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 (edited) The FT has just received an email from Jim Rogers retracting his retraction that sterling will crash within two weeks (not really - I made that up). hmmm, well its reached the 8 month double top target and with all the negativity on sterling now in the media and also on this site, i certainly wouldnt want to be short of it. I think this site might be a good contrarian indicator, whenever there are at least 4 threads on main page on a market be it currency , gold or stock its best to get out or on the other side Edited March 1, 2010 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 The pound represents 11.9% of the dollar basket. The Euro is 57.6% I think you'll find that the bulk of the change in the value of the dollar index is from the Euro-dollar exchange rate with an above normal contribution from the pound's fall. But the dollar rising does not explain the bulk of the move down in the £ versus the dollar. Yes I was aware of the %ages. Your point was that the financials were down because of Pru. My point was that fins lead the market and $ appears to be 100% confirming this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 hmmm, well its reached the 8 month double top target and with all the negativity on sterling now in the media and also on this site, i certainly wouldnt want to be short of it. I think this site might be a good contrarian indicator, whenever there are at least 4 threads on main page on a market be it currency , gold or stock its best to get out or on the other side MACD, Histogram and Stochs indicate further to go down v $. All through last year every other day or week there was a 'Black Monday, Tuesday etc' thread. Good calls, every single one of them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 A strong move up for most of next week? Honorary 'guru' status pending................ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 The FT has just received an email from Jim Rogers retracting his retraction that sterling will crash within two weeks (not really - I made that up). but it turns out I was amusingly close http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/02/162521/vince-stanzione-sterling-showman/ Stanzione has seen fit to issue FT Alphaville with another press release on the imminent collapse of sterling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/02/162041/gbk-watch-flatlining/ IMO the election factor is simply a convenient story for Soros or whoever one may want to blame (evil speculators). However it's plausible and easily understood, and that's what's helping make it work. Surely this is going to remain a factor until at least the election, presumably in May. I'm expecting a Tory majority - the UK electoral system does not deliver hung parliaments very often - it's designed to provide clear majorities, even on low vote shares e.g. 2005. Under this scenario, one would expect the usual post-election rally in shares and greater confidence in GBP, at least in the short term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Big reversal last night. If red bar this evening then retest of minor low 1105/6. If follow through past 1123 (remember I said about a stop there some days ago) then retest of 1150. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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