Loving The Crash

House prices were massively overvalued and already in a bubble in 2004.

"This has lifted the annual rate of house price growth to -2.7%, from -3.1% in March" 🤣

This wording troubled me - It doesn't make it clear enough to the average person that real interest rates are negative... Over what time period have real rates even increased? The wording seems to imply that financial repression will be ongoing. Has the recent loosening around pension contributions been a ploy to draw people in as future forced buyers of government paper? I will not be taking advantage of the new rules. Just look what happened to BTLers. Private pensions must be looking ripe to the government right now - they just need to get the sheep into the pen first...

It's only money, right? Can't put a price on happiness...

Real house prices are now around their 2004 levels and are now approaching what they were when you started viewing this site. Any home owner without a mortgage over this period has taken a loss but would probably need to Google "money illusion" to begin to understand why...

+1 Maybe it means you won't be able to afford to go out after you've lumbered yourself with so much debt?

Thank you for this info. With the war in Ukraine, the announcement of this test has made many people feel frightened. You only have to read a lot of the posts in this thread to see that. Any idea why the government has not been more open and forthcoming about the reasons for the test? The civil service can also see the fear in the media. Why do you think it is not doing more to issue statements to counter this?

+1 Yes, this remainer even projected theirs onto the side of a lorry FFS...

+1 Peter Schiff for president.

London will crash the most - just like it did in the last crash in 1989.

The UK is 6 months into a recession. Q4 2022 will be revised downwards in time...

🤣 Historical datasets show that mean reversion in housing can take 30+ years. I would say we're about 20 years into a giant bubble. I honestly reckon that with interest rates and unemployment now starting to revert to mean, that the period 2023-2028 is when the bulk of this bubble, if not all of it, will deflate. Low rental yields, higher interest rates, and tax changes have essentially boxed BTLers in. The period of deflationary tailwinds from China has ended and 5% average bank rates are here to stay. The UK government can't afford any more largesse. We're in a recession. It's over. 2025 will probably be the best time to buy the nominal low (18 years after 2007, 36 years after 1989) - but the real low probably won't be hit until around 2032. So if you're looking to buy cash, that would be the time to do it. For all those for whom this timescale hasn't suited them psychologically, all I can say is life is unfair, quit whining, and man up. All the cretins who have being paying off their mortgages at record low interest rates for the last 15 years, when they could have been putting that money into other asset classes with much higher returns, will still be stupid once the crash is over, and will probably sit in their shitboxes, as they halve in value, believing they made a shrewd move in becoming mortgage free. The smart money which has been taking advantage of low rates to accumulate wealth over the same period, and which will be buying housing at multi-generational lows, will meanwhile be looked on by those same such people as idiots that missed out. But money is money. Housing is an asset class whether you believe it should be or not, debt is debt, and stupid is stupid. Enjoy the next 5 years - I'm sure you deserve to 🙂

The literal sense.

“while house prices are likely to see a modest decline in 2023 (perhaps of c.5%), a significant deterioration in the labour market or more elevated mortgage rates would probably be required to generate the double-digit declines suggested by some forecasters. While the risks are skewed in that direction, it doesn’t appear to be the most likely outcome." A significant deterioration in the labour market and more elevated mortgage rates are certain.

TerryBoi, May I ask what service/product you provide to your clients?

Easier for now. Let's hope they've factored in a doubling in the price of everything they'll spend their money on over the next 5-10 years - plus large decreases in the value of their assets. There's no need for the government to do anything other than get out of the way - inflation will do the heavy lifting in getting these entitled snowflakes back to work.

Wilko? https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/29/wilko-owners-dividends-losses-emergency-funding-sales

Mr Grinch, is that you?

Puritanism at its finest. Thanks for the chuckle 🤣

Yes, it is solved. I have been an employee, self-employed, and a business owner. Everyone has the opportunity to fill any one of these roles. If an employee would prefer to be a business owner, then they can be. Anyone choosing one role and then moaning about their choice is a victim of their own childlike mentality.

Quite right. If people don't like PAYE they can stop moaning like little bitches and set up a business.

Yes

+1 Such a shame she wobbled - maybe she was forced to?

+1 UK well down the road to serfdom.

Agreed - they should have doubled down and slashed the state.