Crowed

This - in my part of east of England, nearly all the buyers are either retiring here with a good pension and selling a nice house somewhere to fund the move and the renovation they plan, are 2nd homes either to let or just own and visit a few times a year, or they are out of towners (like us) who were able to get a nice house here for less than elsewhere and keep a relatively higher salary. Most local people I know struggle to buy here - I'm sad to be part of the problem, but we love being here. If it wasn't for all the old people...

We got an I/O on the 2nd house we bought - we were selling a flat and had a decent deposit, but rates were up from 4.25% when we got the first place to 5.42% (which was 0.08% less then the BoE base rate - tracker mortgage). I didn't want an i/o but the lady in Halifax 'suggested' we open an isa - put in the required amount on month one and then once the mortgage was granted, we could do what we wanted/cancel the isa... 2 months after we moved in the rates went up to 5.63% and I was glad we were interest only - 3 months later they crashed down and we were paying about £180 a month on a mortgage of £200k ish. For a while were just enjoyed the money, but after about 8 years I started significantly over paying, and though when we came to sell I needn't have bothered - I would have been better off investing all that money, and the savings were tiny on the little interest we paid, and the value of the house would have cleared the mortgage and left us with a huge deposit. So i/o isn't always bonkers - but now in my 40s there is no way I'd do it without a clear plan to get rid of the debt. Friends at work are going i/o as they can't afford the new rates - which u understand - but it's going to hurt them later. They are hoping wage inflation helps them clear the debt.

This - if the other option is not having a car, where they live I can imagine that means not getting to work/losing your job. Alt 3 hours each way on public transport. Being poor sucks. I chose to live in a car for 3 months as a teenager in Australia. But that was easy - I had nothing (pressing) to do. Being in the car meant I didn't need to work, just surf and hang out. I just used to park in a hostel car park, and use the facilities. It was warm so didn't have to worry about damp, and towards the end I just slept on the beach quite a bit as I go board of being cramped, even though it was a car with two huge bench seats. I can't imagine living in a car in the UK or another cold climate. Especially when working and trying to 'fit in'.

Interesting article about the American rental market https://nypost.com/2023/10/23/it-now-costs-52-more-to-buy-a-home-than-rent-one-report/ Now, this doesn't seem to follow with any of my friends renting in London or out here in the countryside, yet. But these things will follow I guess? And if they don't, what is it about the American market that is so different?

I lived in London for 20 years (and loved it - we are still a little gutted to have left). In the last three months I've been back a few times for work, staying in east London or in central. I've not been there on the weekends so I can't comment on them. One thing I noticed is the tube is quieter - I got a seat from Leytonstone to Oxford Circus at morning rush hour and the same on the way home - thst never would have happened. But all the bars I went to (mid week) in east London and in central were heaving after work - I was a mild time which gets people out but the bars I used to go to looked no different. I've not been out there on a weekend for over a year, but when I did I could not have told you what was different to 10 years ago - reports of London demise are largely over rated - if you like cosmopolitan living, art, fashion and media then it is a great place. If you don't, then you won't like it for sure.

With a sub 80 year lease, buying an extension becomes expensive - the price now seems high given that.

Yeah rightmove has some wonky data on it for sure. I was checking a place I used to live and it showed it as having sold 4 times since we left it, which I know is not true. Land Registry has the correct data, but zoopla is wrong. I wasn't sure if it was to do with it being flats and sharing a house number and postcode, but the prices didn't even seem to reflect the sale of other flats at the address, so they must have an additional data source?

Don't get me wrong, I think pb is doomed in the long run - I was more calling out the risks of shorting. Shorts are essentially loans - where you borrow a share from someone, sell it then hope to buy it back cheaper at some point in the future. All the while paying some level of interest to the original share owner (which is what stops you waiting indefinitely for the share price to fall). So your two risks are 1. That due to some information you are not privy too, the shares will increase in value soon or 2. That you will end up paying more in interest in the share loan, that you've made by shorting a stock that does fall. Shorting is not for most people, and most of the shares apps let you short for just the cost of the interest, not the share itself, so it is easy to take on a very big position and be on the hook for a lot of money. I think these shares will drop - but in theory that risk is already baked into the current share price.

Hoping you didn't short them... https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12129339/amp/Top-shareholder-sparks-bidding-war-beleaguered-Purplebric.html

If it is a scam, why aren't British Gas cashing in? Surely as VIs go they'd be ripe for rinsing this for all it's worth, but they are not. But I do agree, heat pumps are only really suitable for passive houses or those with great (not just good) insulation. The current pumps just don't give out enough heat for our leaky old houses.

Etoro or Plus500 and you should be able to get set up today. If you haven't shorted before, be sure to do some reading about the risks and costs.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12064285/amp/Purplebricks-shares-crash-65-amid-race-buyer.html 😬

This feels far more likely to me! (but I've been wrong so many times before...)

Some interesting discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35795975

Interesting graph to play with: https://observablehq.com/@mbostock/bank-failures

Good blog post on where next for interest rate rises - obviously if house prices do increase then that piles pressure on BoE to raise interest rates https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/predicting-the-short-term-outlook-for-uk-interest-rates/

No this is the Nationwide mortgage data, so based on sold prices that they are loaning against.

Dead cat bounce? https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/may/02/uk-house-prices-pick-up-nationwide-bp-hsbc-profits-eurozone-inflation-business-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other Quote: UK house price growth stabilised in April, building society Nationwide reports this morning, with the first monthly increase in seven month. Average house prices rose by 0.5% last month, Nationwide’s data shows, following seven consecutive falls going back to last September. The average price increased to £260,441, up from £257,122 in Ma rch.

This is it! A few of these in each area, and a new price is set. Had three nice £500k houses near me all come back in the market - one is a probate so I bet they will be first to drop. Then the other two will have to follow suit if they actually want to sell. As this happens across the country, a new normal will emerge. It will take time, but as this thread, it is already happening - led by death/divorce and other forced sellers. Once these sales are in the system prices will follow.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/apr/28/i-was-really-shocked-would-be-uk-homebuyers-describe-their-mortgage-battles?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other Quote: Despite the much lower mortgage request for the cheaper property, and although all the family’s other incomings and outgoings remained the same, their bank reduced the amount they were prepared to lend by £250,000. When pressed, Barclays explained that the bank’s affordability algorithm had changed. “They said basically, ‘Because of everything that’s gone on in the economy, we’ve pretty much doubled the amount needed for the average cost of living per per son’. ---- Article describes people on pretty great salaries being turned down for what seem affordable mortgages. What hope do the rest of us/them have. For those of you hoping to buy in the crash with a mortgage, what is your plan to make it work? Those with all cash will be fine I assume, but if that isn't your position I'd like to understand the best options.

The BoE base rate is the 'worst' thing the bank can do with your money, really they should be offering that as an interest rate (minus their fees) at a minimum - but they can do plenty with their money to earn more than that. The base rate is just the rate the BoE will lend at, many other lenders can and will charge very different rates, as the swap rates show. Swap rates will have a look no to the base rate, but they are not the same thing.

A place I used to live just sold at auction, the seller had tried for about 4 years to sell it at various prices - it just sold by auction (after the 3rd or 4th attempt as failed to meet reserve) - at a v low price, but it wasn't a great place. Really wanted to know the story, did the owner fall into difficulty? Was it a forced sale? Was it just liquidising part of an 'empire'.? But yes seen more of these auctions in my old area (London zone 3) and out here in Norfolk. Usually got something 'wrong' with the houses though.

Totally aware, and very angry about it, and the rest of the fleecing of the British public this govt and party have done for the last 13 years. Sickening.

The end has been a long time coming! Worry is now that they are bunging ever more of our cash to friends, and leaving a huge mess of kneejerk laws and policies to unpick for whoever comes next.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4789501-house-buyer-pulled-out Our buyer pulled out after sending a letter stating they wanted to reconsider their price, having a second viewing during the Easter holidays (so we cancelled activities with our kids and tidied like mad) and then made us wait for five days for feedback. We were close to exchange. Our mortgage expires shortly so we will.be on 7.25% temporarily. Feel sick and stressed. I know it will all be okay but just feel dreadful. Sharing so others can share their experiences. Thread with others in a similar situation...