Pablo-silver or lead?

In Florida prices are dropping across the board. There are so many properties on the market that have been reduced in price 4 or 5 times and still no interest. If you need to sell and many need to sell due to the vast cost of owning property in Florida (even without a mortgage), the only way you can get interest is reduce the price substantialy. Many top Real Estate Agents are openly saying you can get deals 20 to 25% low than at the Sept 2005 peak. This thing has only just begun there are Billions of $ of adjustable rate mortgages due to go up fron 2 or 3% intoductory rates to 6, 7 or 8% in the comming month, the repos will come in their tens of thousands, 2001 prices will be here again in Florida. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Allme have you ever come into contact with Social Services as a client under Mental Health Legislation. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Missing from village one idiot! Pablo Silver or Lead?

http://realtor.com/Default.asp?poe=realtor got to realtor.com, search Kissimmee, Clermont or any other STR villa area of Polk, Orange, Lake or Oceola counties. How many do you want a thousand? Nothing selling hundres more distressed sales coming onto the market. As I say why buy now and loose a stack of money. Pablo Silver or Lead? PS even withought a mortgage it'll cost $1,300 a month just to pay the running cost. Not smart on a depreciating asset!

The bottom of the Florida Mkt is at least 18 months away. 2005 5 bed villa with pool $320k 2007/8 5 bed villa with pool $200k or less. Pablo Silver or Lead?

June 2008 Pablo Silver or Lead?

If this happens just move to a bigger better property for lower rent. it's a renters market. Pablo Silver or Lead?

As I prediced some time ago .25% rise in July/Aug another one befor Xmas four .25% rises befor end 2007. Sentiment will be affected by the first two rises, the market will implode in 2007 and owning debt linked to the falling 'asset' of property will cease to be fashionable. A lot of people are just about to learn a lot about economics and it's going to be a very expensive lesson. Pablo Silver or Lead?

I feel like a stuck record last time (boom 86 to Aug 88) the boom was led by the South. Many prices subsequently (bust Aug 88 to 94ish) halved. e.g. Studios top 52k ish - bottom unsaleable (they were competing with 2 bedders at 30K. New build Neo georgian 4 bed town houses 100 yards from the sea in a conservation area 1987= 245k 1988= 235k 1989= 200k 1990= 170k 1991= 160 to 120k 1992= 112 to 84k From off plan new build sold at 245k to built new build sold at 92k (the £84k sale was a Halifax repo bought in 1989 for £215k by a flipper who called bottom a bit early, about 3 years). THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT. The North has seen increases that make the south blush with nothing to support these increases now credit is tightening and affordibility drag sentiment down. I make a prediction you can hold me to. Prices of many properties in the North will fall over the next 4 years by up to half e.g. Crappy terraces in crappy areas of the N/W and N/E plus new build lux apartments. The 'top' of the market has been much longer than last time, many, many more people have bought the wrong properties, at the wrong time, for prices which are disconnected from the real fundimentals that support value. Not even the Express headline writer can prevent the Northern led crash that we are about to experiance. Pablo Silver or Lead

B'mouth has always been a town of solicitors and estate agents 'Dream Town' it was called in a 'reality TV show a few years ago. The B'mth Poole experiance of huge real drops (peak to trough) from Aug 1988 to 1994 (up to 60% in extreem cases but certainly -35% across the board) will be repeated. Looking at real properties selling, prices havent risen in the conurbation for arround 2.5 years. Some of the OFF Plan flat developments have proved a financial disaster for the 'investors'. There is a lot of long term kite flying going on i.e. crazy priced properties been on the market for 1 to 2 years without a sniff of a sale. In some cases the owners read the front page of the Express and put em up another 20%, as I said its a dream town about to turn into a nightmare for anyone who has over leveraged to BTL and or bought in the last 3 to 4 years with low deposite/high income multiple. see you at the bottom Pablo Silver or Lead?

She and half a million other Johnny come lately (last 3.5 years) amatuer BTL dreamers are going to flood the market with their failing to perform (yield/cap app) portfolios in the next 2 years. She is just a fool who has been able to borrow too much money, secured on too little assets at the wrong time. Pablo Silver or Lead?

All the data is screeming rise. High st spending, Money supply, Inflation, Headline property prices a-la Daily Express, Mortgage lending. The individuals on the MPC are very exposed they have to make a choice each month and that is a matter of public record. They know how incompetent they are going to look (individually) if they don't do the correct thing. We'll see! Pablo Silver or Lead?

The top of this I/R Cycle will be between 6.5 and 10% some time in 2008/09. However 2 x I/R hikes of .25% by end 2006 will tip sentiment and thefore behaviour into a downward spiral for HPI. The Government and the BOE MPC can't now control the landing. They had an opportunity to facilitate a soft landing over the last two years, they did not recognise it at the time. Now it's a hard landing, how hard? We'll just have to whatch it unfold. One thing is for sure it will all look so obvious in retrospect and then the recriminations will start. Many individuals and businesss will never recover. Gordons not stupid he knows he has no where to hide, certainly not No. 10! Pablo Silver or Lead?

YES I've had two periods as an EA and many years ago ran 2 branches of Connells. There are 2 types of seller discretionary and non discretionary. I am not for a moment suggesting HIPS would have dettered people who wanted/needed to sell their properties from coming to market. Probably 25% of properties that are taken on as instructions in the UK and sell (complete) start as dicretionary "thank's for comming round to do your free valuation but we not acctually going to sell yet" " Of course not, what a lovely home you have here". HIPS would have stopped many of these properties coming on the market or at least delayed them as they bedded in. HIPS would have substantial reduce the volume of property on the market at a time when new builder inventories are climbing and in the areas I'm monotoring the volume of properies for sale and time on the market are both going up. No HIPS, 2x.25% increases in I/R with more to follow and 3 years of price froth will start to blow off the top. Pablo Sliver of Lead?

HIPS by putting a cost/barrier on the seller would have decressed supply of properties coming on the market. The market for property and therfore prices is a sentiment driven supply, demand risk-reward equation being made every day by amatuers. Any withdrawl of HIPS is good for supply therfore it will help dampen demand/price. Pablo Silver or Lead?

The statement that house prices would go up 50% (from today’s prices) in the next 5 years was qualified ‘IF INTEREST RATES AVERAGE 4.5%’ during that period. UK I/R will go up .25% in July/Aug they will go up a further .25% before 2006 is out. Due to the MPC collectively misjudging the global situation and how it impacts UK they will have to play catch up and continue to increase rates through 2007. Rates will finish 2007 at 5.75 to 6.5% will that be the top of the I/R hiking cycle? Don’t know they may stay at that rate for a year or so, they may go up they may come down, they may even average 4.5% during the next 5 years. But that’s for another time. Two I/R increases taking base rates in the UK to 5% with the bank and the markets predicting more ahead, will tip the property market off the edge. It seems everyone around me has made a one way bet on property. Too many people have borrowed silly amounts of money to buy properties at unsustainable prices. They are hoping that the party can go on but it won’t. The market will be flooded with repo’d leveraged BTL properties and second homes. Prices on some properties in some markets will fall to 50% of current prices. Like last time in the markets that fall the most you’ll be able to pick up properties bellow cost. It will be led from the north cities that continued to rise after the south/midlands peaked in 2004. A building society spokesman in the Mail today said it looks like the BOE are going to have to raise rates due to the inflation figures and just a .25% hike will topple a lot of people over the edge because all their bills have gone up also “well you shouldn’t have lent them so much money then should you”. It looks like not just a generation but the whole country is about to learn/re-learn, some lessons on home economics. Pablo Silver or Lead? PS the alternative scenario is that they half interest rates to 2.25%, properties double. Then raise rates to 12% and property prices drop 80%. There is no way of engineering a soft landing from the current position.

Orrible don't tell us you went to Florida and the deal looked so good you bought two? What have you decided? Pablo Silver or Lead?

BE it's been on the market for over 18 months the developer SEVEN is carrying a lot of inventory, where as three years ago most sold 'off plan'. The principle of SEVEN had two previous companies Yellow3 and Keddie both went bust due in part to over trading ahead of a slump in property. There appears to be many top end properties (800k up) that have not sold, some have been of the market for over 3 years (now thats kite flying). Many 'off plan investors' at Dolphin Quays are underwater due to paying too much. I know lots of people that bought houses round Lower P/stone, Liliput, Westbourne and the boaders of B'some park for arround 450 to 480k 5 or so years ago. They all tell me there worth about 800 to 900k now! However realistically most would struggle to realise 650k. Prices arround Poole/B'mouth have dropped a bit in the last 2 years. It'll be interesting to se how 'investor/flippers' get on im the off plan new build flat sector as there are litterally thousands going up.

There's nothing like a good start in life, and leaving Uni in 3 years time with £20k of debt and £30k of negative equity in nothing like a good start. But no worry that 2:2 in media studies will ensure you earn an extre £1.5k pa with which to pile into a pension so you can retire before 85. Pablo Silver or Lead?

House prices will double in the next ten years. But first they'll have to drop. In some cases thoses drops will be 50% (wrong property, in the wrong location, bought for the wrong price at the wrong time). In effect many properties will be selling at similar prices as today in a decade. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Thats the great thing about Forums they're full of dreamers and creamers. I too am highly dyslexic. Having left shool at 16 unable to 'right'. Six of us living in a one bedroom flat, we all have or stories! I've been arround property investment UK/US for 25 years now (as an amature investor) done ok by luck and calling the cycles! Throughout the 80's earnt 15k pa fighting global terrorism befor it came fashionable. Then spent the 90's earning 300k a year in the City. Money? Wealth ? so what! Allme I have no doubt you're a fake it till you make it dreamer, but hey the worlds full of them so you're in good company. Oh and I bet you learn more in the next 2 years than everything so far to date. Good luck. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Whiterabbit mentions retirement relocation to florida. From the Uk there is no retirement visa available. Pablo Silver or Lead?

Allme so you lost a shed full in of the Spanish costas. Come out of denial get over it and stop posting utter rubish. In 2 years time hundreds of thousands of properties on the costas will be costing their 'investor' owners a fortune just for the privilage of them being able to say 'I've got an investment property abroad'. They will (as they allready are) come on to the market in droves. There are many villas currently being offered at between E300k and E500k that in late 2008/09 will be on for E170k to E270k. Nothing is going to keep the Spanish market up, against rising I/R as general inflation takes hold. Spain soon becomes a net contributor to Europe. That why they are going to squeeze absentee overseas owners untill they bail. This time next year Rodney we'll be millionairs! Plonker! Pablo Silver or Lead?

Orrible Did you buy it! Where is it Tierra del Sol, Millbrook Manor, Sandy Ridge, Tuscana, Orange Tree, Solana, Highrove? Whats the price? Do you have any specific questions that the Real Estate sales person will shy away from e.g. How many different licenses and taxes will I be liable for in the State of Florida as an absentee UK owner? Answer 7. Will I need a VISA to vist my own villa? Get a good US lawyer and an accountant befor you do anything. Pablo Silver or Lead.

If its in Surrey £2.6 million but if it's on the outskirts of Liverpool, Manchester or Newcastle £3.8 million as prices up north just keep on going up. The north is the new engine for paper property profits. They've never had it so good, best spend all the new equity before prices come back to 2001 levels, then leg it to Northern Cyprus. You know it makes sense! Eh Zorba Calm Down! Pablo Silver or Lead?