F0ul Thought

I can't see it actually happen myself. He is not an apologist for anything yet - except slavery - I can't see him having the belief that he needs to resign. With the amount of money he has already stacked, I can't see him being motivated to put himself in a position where he can't blame other people if it goes wrong. The other issue is that the G20 was really just a talking shop where all the talking was preplanned. The idea might have been mentioned, but these things can easily end up on the cutting room floor before anything is actually done - other countries have already pointed out how stupid Brown's ideas are - they are not going to put themselves in a position where they have to listen to him after the next election! of course, I may be wrong!

I think all Celebrities are just as bad - they hate capitalism, for the masses, but love the benefit it brings them. Billy Bragg is a great example - this is his house - DT6 4RB - It must be worth a million at least! This is only possible in a capitalistic system - under the socialist dream he publicly aspires to, he would still be living in the poor part of Barking, where he was born. Russell Brand is possibly not as bad as Bragg in that his interview on TV at the G20 just showed him up to be an idiot and not worthy of taking seriously!

The daft thing is that it isn't even new news. I blogged about this 10 days ago! G20 Will Be about Tax Havens http://*******.com/ch8j59 I guess the BBC would hate us to realise that the whole G20 is just a show to hide the fact that most deals are always made in back rooms out of sight!

Yes, there is a possibility that Labour could get in again - but that is not what they want to happen - why do you think they are spending like nobody's business? They know they are out in May 2010. The problem in the UK is that we are so used to the idea that things can only get better if the government spend more money, and they can only do that if they raise taxes. There is an idea called the Lafer curve. This is where if the government asks for too much tax, people find ways of not paying it - either through creative accounting, or through just not working - so there is a maximum figure that tax can be set at - I think its around 38% of total income in an average capitalistic economy. If I was running the economy, I would start by cutting the public sector bill by removing all the quangos. I would then remove the budgets for supporting fake charities and 'third sector' companies. Obviously, the ones funded by the Eu can stay - its not UK money! I would finally, freeze the budgets for all education and health - letting them to work out what is essential, and what is a frivolous expense (there are hundreds of examples of councils and hospitals spending thousands on daft ideas!) Granted, none of these measures would sort out the problems of giving money to the banks. One solution could be to rework their contracts so that they pay it all back within a fixed term, and if they don't, the debt is called in and they go bust - this would concentrate their will to get the job done! Luckily, I will never get the chance to do this, but I think it could be done!

I have a very similar political viewpoint as Guido - he's a Libertarian or anarcho-capitalist - also known as a classic liberal. This is so far away from a fascist that only a political imbecile could mistake them. There is a either an ignorance or a deliberate campaign to confuse the term fascist with the right. There is nothing Right about them. the BNP, the UK's main fascist party is exceptionally similar to Labour. The BBC know this as do most Lefties. Run through their manifesto, and see for yourself. About the only difference is that fascists are more protectionist and tend to be very xenophobic. Guido on the other hand believes in as little rules as possible. Basically this means property rights and that is about it. You don't mess with others unless they want you to - other than that, do as you want, (set up your own charity if you want) but remember that you are totally responsible for your own actions - does that sound like a fascist to you?

Regardless of how you are measuring the ratio, historically, the figure that we see as normal seems to change every boom, 3:1 might be the norm now, but it didn't used to be, back in the 70's it was nearer 2.4 - all that seems to happen is the bar is raised on every boom, If the banks decide that 4:1 is the safe figure, then the bottom will be reached quicker, because prices won't have to drop so far. Personally, I can't see the average house price going any lower that £120K That is still a hell of a drop from the peak of 2007 but to rely too much on historical data without taking into consideration more modern attitudes could mean that you will always be waiting for the figure that you forecast as the bottom. That figure will never happen and then where will you be? The problem with all recessions is that people always use the previous one as a guide of how to get out of the next one - so you end up with a solution and target figures for the wrong problem! All recessions are different, but they all have similarities. They are all caused by politicians and made worse by politicians. They all come to an end. They generally don't last much longer than 8 - 9 years, peak to peak. Other than that, the semantics of looking at historical figures and trying to join the dots is a pointless waste of time. However, if it keeps you off the street, then I guess its not all bad!

I think the term Credit Crunch has been misused by the media - because its easy. The reality is - low risk lending is possible - high risk is banned and the only problem is that many banks have lost sight of what a high risk actually is - and that is where some business is loosing out. The banks are locking out industries rather than looking at the books first. Having said that, many of the businesses which are going bust are blaming the credit crunch because it sounds better than miss management - and the press, being the economic illiterates that they are, are going along with it!

My gut feeling - and that is the best sort of forecasting (!) I wouldn't consider buying anything until Summer 2011. Why? Because it takes ages for all the action of panicking politicians to make things worse, and it takes longer for the market to feel that things can't get any worse! Add in an election in May 2010 and the action of new politicians trying to show they know what they are doing, and you have another period of distrust. By the summer of 2011 - it should have reached rock bottom! Hope this guess helps!

as I understand it - Affordable Housing is a SubPrime Mortgage. What the councils are doing here is two fold, they are being seen to be helping the poor which is good politically. Secondly, they are removing their housing maintenance costs, which is good for their budget requirements - but done in a way where they can hide the reduced budget requirements from the auditors - at least for 12 months. Interesting idea though - I guess its possibly good for the benefits budget as well to make sure housing benefits are kept lower for a while It might seem a little consipiritorial, but that's not to say that it's not true!

It is the inflation wiping out debt model Im going for. maybe ocean finance debt consolidation is the way out of this hole!

I'm looking at this from the generational prespective and years of people telling me we are richer now than ever - its obviously not true. Wealth is a product of disposable income. If you are spending all your money just to survive, then we are self imprisoned slaves.

Tata hadn't actually paid for Land Rover / Jaguar last I looked - they still owed a billion or so to Ford. However, in the grand scheme of things, it would be better if some of these companies actually got on with it and closed down. The whole point of a recession is to remove the deadwood - the longer you fool them with a few extra injections of cash, the longer it is before the inevatable happens and the man with the money pulls the plug. Its exactly because that current thinking says we should be saving these pre bust companies that we are going to be in a bigger mess in 2 years time than we could be. Free market? It would be a nice idea!

Fantastic leacture - thank god for Youtube - second great not available on TV viewing I've had this week! It does highlight one of my biggest worries - Generation X - me - is going to be the first generation in history to be poorer than the one that came before. That really sux! I already knew my pension was worthless, but to find that I have less disposable income than my father had when he was my age - even though I thought I had done better than him career wise really is a kick where it hurts! The answer is - ... I have no idea but the thought of a caravan and a menial job comes to mind - at least I might be happier!

I so agree with the original post - I have spent my life listening to the double standards of people a generation older than me. We all know that the current system is a ponzi scheme - pensions are being paid with my taxes - Who will pay my pension? No one, they will have been abolished by then, by the people who's pension I will be funding! Yes, this is an American view of the generations, but it is just as true in the UK - even if the dates are a little out. All I can hope for is that I will get a chance to sh17 on the younger generation like these boomers did to me - but unfortunately, we were brought up with an idea that being fair and nice to people was a good idea, so it isn't going to happen. - again, the hypocrisy of the older generation was obvious to us. They were the racists, they were the sexists, they were the lazy, unionised strikers who spent most of their careers avoiding work! They were the ones who told us that pensions were a good idea, but went for early retirements, cruises and properties in the sun. Yes, the gen X's will be the first poorer generation in history, but only because the previous generation spent money they didn't earn! The worst thing is that these boomers have influenced their grand kids to do the same. Gen Y will also go for the easy life - it will be up to Gen X, when they finally get into power to make sure that we all live within our means!

I am aware of people quoting in April 2007 that it was time to sell to avoid the problems in early 2008 I guess the answer is that it isn't a case of one event which breaks the camels back - even if it can look like that in hindsight. In fact it could be said that forecasting cycles is more important that forecasting individual events. With that in mind, if you think its bad now, wait until April 2009, its going to take until then for the banks and the government to realize that you can't keep throwing good money after bad for ever! - how do I know? Because all cycles have harmonics which revolve around the results of governments trying to warp the original cycle!

The internet won't make a blind bit of difference! What the internet has done is to create group think. Sites like this one have been talking about a HPC for years - this domain was bought in 2003 - a crash always happens every few years - its like predicting rain in a desert - it is going to happen sometime! Internet users are much more focused than the man in the street. They do reading, they do learning, they are easily led - because they can self select any information that confirms their world view. Years ago, these same type of people were buying books called 'How to survive the slump' or whatever written by pre internet webmaster types!

Don't you think maybe the reason the Dow is down is because it is catching up with business? It was closed yesterday, so it needs time to catch up. You are also looking at a different rate of figures. 200 points is only 1.5%, which is a reasonable number after a day off!

After all that panicing, the figures currently show that the FTSE has only dropped by less than 10% over 12 months - which isn't bad considering the current morale. Day to day figures are a bit of a sham though - you need to look at the overall story. As for percentage, the great crash of 29 took three years to lose 89% of its value - that isn't going to happen this time, so at least that is something to be happy about!

You want proof that the trickle down effect is true? Look at how far people are willing to travel to work in London? The whole of the country is wealther due to these extra mega rich coming in and paying a little more for their property. The ones who couldn't afford a £10m flat buy one for £8M and all the way down! The ones who lose out at the street cleaners exactly because they don't create wealth! A street cleaner costs the tax payer for a service that was never asked for. In a proper capitalistic world, the roads would get cleaned for a fee from the people who would benefit from it the most. It is at this point that the street cleaner would be adding wealth! Finally, we are beyond the point economically when we need manufacturing - that is so 20th century! Sensibly speaking, the big money is in the information industries - such as finance, data management etc. Again the people who lose out are the ones with so little brain power that the only thing they have to sell are their muscles. Unfortunately, muscle is cheaper in the far east. Interestingly though, we've not heard much about the brain drain - That is where our long term wealth is stored!

I found this interesting little Gem - http://oll.libertyfund.org/index.php?optio...7&Itemid=27 Its basically the first mention of peak coal - written in 1865. Unsurprisingly, he was intimately wrong in his assertion. Not only because coal didn't run out as he predicted, but because he was unwilling to see how technology changes energy needs. He was arguing that coal was a requirement of industry, so industry would stop as soon as the coal ran out - however, industry no longer uses coal, it uses oil. Coal is still with us, as is industry. Unfortunately, Oil and gas is being lined up for the same treatment. Oil and gas is running out, industry is going to crash. In a hundred years, we will be using some form of safe nuclear or fuel cell technology and industry will be doing well without oil. We will however still have plenty of oil and gas!

I live in a house which is just over 100 years old. It is likely to be around for another 100 if not more. It was designed and built by the Victorians who knew a thing or two about over engineering. Today's houses are barely designed to last longer than the mortgage. Anyway - this is going OT! Retail - the companies which go bust will be those who are not offering people something of value. Halfords will survive because where else can you get over priced stuff for your car on a Sunday, or after 6pm at night? Clinton Cards and most card shops do well in recessions - people buy cards when they can't afford presents. However, retail will see loads of companies failing because the market is just too full of me too companies!

I remember the last recession and it was hard work. Like today, a lot of the figures were masked and unemployment was something everyone did at some time! The thing is, they are technically quite healthy for the economy. A quick, 6 month recession helps remove the deadwood from various industries and makes trading better for the stronger companies. The problem is that this government have been fiddling the books for so long that we really can't compare like for like.

Before you all get too carried away, check this out: This address was one of those quoted: http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=L3+9BD However, notice that these addresses show that the main address is a collection of apartments - so, it isn't the same flat that is going for sale - and so it is not the same flat price going up and down. Evidence is more than just a headline!!

There is only one place the blame lies at - its the general public. Who voted Labour into power? Who watches DIY porn on TV? Who was getting remortgage after remortgage to fund a livestyle they couldn't afford? Everything comes down to you and me. We knew that we were being ripped off, and we should have talked about this with others five years ago. Its all very well posting on here, but all on this site are already converted - its the ones still shopping in Next on the red hot capital one card who need to be told that its their fault. However, Schools have been teaching the last generation of kids that where there's blame, there is someone else who is responsible -and it is much easier to blame someone else - its time to face up to some self responsibility!

Not everyone is screaming bear A& L are quite happy - Bank statement a relief to A&L’s jittery investorsNov 30 2007 by Alistair Houghton, Liverpool Daily PostSHARES in Alliance & Leicester soared after the bank reassured investors over its prospects despite the impact of the credit crunch.In a trading statement the bank said it would take a £55m hit from losses on Treasury investments, meaning its 2007 profit would be below analysts’ forecasts.But it said that excluding those losses its underlying profit would be ahead of market forecasts of £598m and said it had maintained strong assets and growth despite “unprecedented conditions”.