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House Price Crash Forum

Risk

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About Risk

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    HPC Poster

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    Singapore
  1. Risk

    Edinbugh Latest

    Returning to HPC through frustration (been a long time!) - anyone agree that ESPC is a complete joke?
  2. it was probably an "off the wall" bid anyway
  3. Bids will be submitted by the participants, have a look at the timetable below this sets out what will happen 9:45 a.m.-10 a.m. Auction participants will submit bids and offers for the debt backing the credit default swaps, which will be used to determine the initial recovery rate of the swaps. 10:30 a.m. Auction administrators Creditex and Markit will publish the initial recovery price and the open interest for the contracts will be published. The open interest reflects the amount of bids and offers that have been made, and will show if there are more buyers than sellers, or vice versa. 12:45 p.m. -1 p.m. Participating dealers will submit limit orders for the debt on behalf of themselves and their clients to fill the open interest 2 p.m. The final price of the auction will be published. (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
  4. A number of the main players have signed up to accept the 2pm (US time) auction result. What does this mean? The auction will set the settlement price for these CDS contrats. By way of a simple example: I'm an investor who holds 10m of Lehman debt (bonds), I don't like my exsposure so I buy a 10m CDS contract. As a result I have a net zero position in Lehman. On default I give my 10m Lehman bonds (worth less than 10m) to the insurer in return for 10m cash. However the majority of these contracts are cash settled, therefore rather than return bonds the insurer will pay the difference between the auction price and 100. ie 100 - 9.75
  5. Risk

    Edinbugh Latest

    I didn't mean for this to sound like I have a chip on my shoulder however I think it highlights the fact we're firmly in the denial stage of the cycle. People still expect to make 10% - 20% on 2007 prices. I'm sure many have spent cash on their property however they need to get into the real world.
  6. Risk

    Edinbugh Latest

    I have zero respect, this was purchased in March 2007 for £214,500......
  7. mortgage approvals have historically been a good lead indicator on the state of the hosuing market..... we all know how they are doing
  8. Risk

    Edinbugh Latest

    Muswell, Love the research, keep up the good work! Taking into account the rent on a standard two bedroom, I suppose around 175K / 180K would be fair value? What u think?
  9. Yolande Barnes (Head of research @ Savills) should be sacked for stating "It's not about affordability"
  10. You make a very interesting point and I think this is the paradigm shift the market is experiencing.
  11. Risk

    Edinbugh Latest

    Great spot and interesting post..... have a look at 17 Arden street if 55 can't sell what chance has 17 got?
  12. Risk

    Edinbugh Latest

    Hi roblpm, Notice you have an interest in the Ediburgh market and know this sub forum well. Has anyone picked up on the change to the ESPC publication? More specifically the chance to the front page were they no longer publish the number sold / new to the market? Interested to know if there is a thread on it... Cheers, Risk
  13. no such thing as BMV - the price PAID is the market
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