[Nicholas Cage]

Date issued: 23 May 2008

NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY – MAY 2008 MONTHLY HOUSE PRICES

Nationwide Building Society's Monthly Housing Review will be issued at -
7.00AM on Thursday 29 May 2008.


Media information:
Chris Bennett, Media Relations Officer, tel: 01793 656517. chris.bennett@nationwide.co.uk

http://www.nationwid...his.asp?ID=1208

Oops didn't mean to post yet, anyway, what is everyones precidtions for May 2008?

This post has been edited by maxwell: 27 May 2008 - 08:56 AM

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

Consensus is -0.5% MOM and -2.1% YOY

[crown]

Seasonal adjustment is going to play a big part.

I have a feeling that there is going to be some dodgy adjustments going on.

It should be down 0.5% with SA down around 1.5% but what betting that it is flat 'worst is over'

[Bearfacts]

As I'm on a bit of a roll at the moment i.e I got the Hometrack figures spot on, Im going to stick my neck out here and forecast -1.5% MOM which ought to make YOY close to -3%. I would have thought the big reduction in LTVs should start to hit the data soon so possibly an even bigger fall.

[Son of Taeper]

Noel, on May 27 2008, 10:04 AM, said:

Consensus is -0.5% MOM and -2.1% YOY

I reckon minus 1.3 month on month

[PropertyAnalyser]

-1.2% MoM
-2.3% YoY

[Zach1965]

http://www.nationwid...al/Apr_2008.pdf

When does http://www.nationwid...al/May_2008.pdf go live, is it a proper timed server event
i.e. appears at 07:00:00 on the 29th?
or does Fionna get her USB memory stick out and upload the file before she goes home the precious evening?

[Disillusioned]

http://www.housepric...p;#entry1131761

[Paddles]

Zach1965, on May 27 2008, 04:59 PM, said:

http://www.nationwid...al/Apr_2008.pdf

When does http://www.nationwid...al/May_2008.pdf go live, is it a proper timed server event
i.e. appears at 07:00:00 on the 29th?
or does Fionna get her USB memory stick out and upload the file before she goes home the precious evening?

Nope, the website gets updated once she's done the milk rounds of the Today Programme, Declan and Bloomberg.

To be honest, I wonder how long it's going to take before she gets hacked off with giving bad news. By September it's going to be a thankless task getting up early and taking a taxi round the various studios to tell everyone what they already know; their property wealth was an illusion.

[Paddles]

Bump.

I know YoY drops are getting boring now, but I love it.

[crashmonitor]

May was the month that sentiment finally changed and even the bulls realised that minus7% was the best chance for 2008,though -10% looks likely.Against this backdrop the index has got to tank.Nobody wants to pay more than 90% asking price and it looks like 2009 is going to be even more devastating.It's got to go -2% MOM.

This post has been edited by crashmonitor: 28 May 2008 - 08:17 AM

[tigsrenting]

Paddles, on May 27 2008, 07:19 PM, said:

Nope, the website gets updated once she's done the milk rounds of the Today Programme, Declan and Bloomberg.

To be honest, I wonder how long it's going to take before she gets hacked off with giving bad news. By September it's going to be a thankless task getting up early and taking a taxi round the various studios to tell everyone what they already know; their property wealth was an illusion.

Has she popped up anywhere yet?

[insidetrack]

crashmonitor, on May 28 2008, 09:17 AM, said:

May was the month that sentiment finally changed and even the bulls realised that minus7% was the best chance for 2008,though -10% looks likely.Against this backdrop the index has got to tank.Nobody wants to pay more than 90% asking price and it looks like 2009 is going to be even more devastating.It's got to go -2% MOM.

Yip, today's bargain price is tomorrow's market price. The only way is down.

[worst time buyer]

Am I right in saying that the land registry figures have the longest lag? i.e. they'll be the last figures to go negative YOY?

If so when is that likely to happen? Couple of months?

We aren't that far from the 1st anniversary of the credit crunch, so I'd imagine all the YOY from every index will be negative soon.

[Paddles]

Khayl, on May 28 2008, 09:38 AM, said:

Am I right in saying that the land registry figures have the longest lag? i.e. they'll be the last figures to go negative YOY?

If so when is that likely to happen? Couple of months?

We aren't that far from the 1st anniversary of the credit crunch, so I'd imagine all the YOY from every index will be negative soon.

The LR figures are so restrictive in their exclusions of data that I'll be surprised if it ever goes negative. Have a read of the list of removed property sales types on their website; it can be summarised as "all property sales excluded apart from Number 37, Acacia Avenue, Slough".