Nationwide Predictions

[Nicholas Cage]

Date issued: 23 May 2008

NATIONWIDE BUILDING SOCIETY – MAY 2008 MONTHLY HOUSE PRICES

Nationwide Building Society's Monthly Housing Review will be issued at -

7.00AM on Thursday 29 May 2008.

Media information:

Chris Bennett, Media Relations Officer, tel: 01793 656517. [email protected]

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/mediacentre/Pr...his.asp?ID=1208

Oops didn't mean to post yet, anyway, what is everyones precidtions for May 2008?

Edited May 27, 2008 by maxwell

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

Consensus is -0.5% MOM and -2.1% YOY

[crown]

Seasonal adjustment is going to play a big part.

I have a feeling that there is going to be some dodgy adjustments going on.

It should be down 0.5% with SA down around 1.5% but what betting that it is flat 'worst is over'

[Bearfacts]

As I'm on a bit of a roll at the moment i.e I got the Hometrack figures spot on, Im going to stick my neck out here and forecast -1.5% MOM which ought to make YOY close to -3%. I would have thought the big reduction in LTVs should start to hit the data soon so possibly an even bigger fall.

[Son of Taeper]

Consensus is -0.5% MOM and -2.1% YOY

I reckon minus 1.3 month on month

[PropertyAnalyser]

-1.2% MoM

-2.3% YoY

[Zach1965]

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

When does http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf go live, is it a proper timed server event

i.e. appears at 07:00:00 on the 29th?

or does Fionna get her USB memory stick out and upload the file before she goes home the precious evening?

[Disillusioned]

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1131761

[Paddles]

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

When does http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf go live, is it a proper timed server event

i.e. appears at 07:00:00 on the 29th?

or does Fionna get her USB memory stick out and upload the file before she goes home the precious evening?

Nope, the website gets updated once she's done the milk rounds of the Today Programme, Declan and Bloomberg.

To be honest, I wonder how long it's going to take before she gets hacked off with giving bad news. By September it's going to be a thankless task getting up early and taking a taxi round the various studios to tell everyone what they already know; their property wealth was an illusion.

[Paddles]

Bump.

I know YoY drops are getting boring now, but I love it.

[crashmonitor]

May was the month that sentiment finally changed and even the bulls realised that minus7% was the best chance for 2008,though -10% looks likely.Against this backdrop the index has got to tank.Nobody wants to pay more than 90% asking price and it looks like 2009 is going to be even more devastating.It's got to go -2% MOM.

Edited May 28, 2008 by crashmonitor

[tigsrenting]

Nope, the website gets updated once she's done the milk rounds of the Today Programme, Declan and Bloomberg.

To be honest, I wonder how long it's going to take before she gets hacked off with giving bad news. By September it's going to be a thankless task getting up early and taking a taxi round the various studios to tell everyone what they already know; their property wealth was an illusion.

Has she popped up anywhere yet?

[insidetrack]

May was the month that sentiment finally changed and even the bulls realised that minus7% was the best chance for 2008,though -10% looks likely.Against this backdrop the index has got to tank.Nobody wants to pay more than 90% asking price and it looks like 2009 is going to be even more devastating.It's got to go -2% MOM.

Yip, today's bargain price is tomorrow's market price. The only way is down.

[SleepyHead]

Am I right in saying that the land registry figures have the longest lag? i.e. they'll be the last figures to go negative YOY?

If so when is that likely to happen? Couple of months?

We aren't that far from the 1st anniversary of the credit crunch, so I'd imagine all the YOY from every index will be negative soon.

[Paddles]

Am I right in saying that the land registry figures have the longest lag? i.e. they'll be the last figures to go negative YOY?

If so when is that likely to happen? Couple of months?

We aren't that far from the 1st anniversary of the credit crunch, so I'd imagine all the YOY from every index will be negative soon.

The LR figures are so restrictive in their exclusions of data that I'll be surprised if it ever goes negative. Have a read of the list of removed property sales types on their website; it can be summarised as "all property sales excluded apart from Number 37, Acacia Avenue, Slough".

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Is the date for the nationwide tomorrow?

Just been to the CML website and their calendar says the 30th?

Actually the calendar is well worth a look, quite a few revealing events, such as:

25th June - Aftermath of credit crisis: Lessons to be learnt by non-executive directors seminar in Leeds

Edited May 28, 2008 by mikelivingstone

[athe]

The LR figures are so restrictive in their exclusions of data that I'll be surprised if it ever goes negative. Have a read of the list of removed property sales types on their website; it can be summarised as "all property sales excluded apart from Number 37, Acacia Avenue, Slough".

Let's hope for a big drop on Number 37, Acacia Avenue, Slough then

[Paddles]

Is the date for the nationwide tomorrow?

Just been to the CML website and their calendar says the 30th?

Actually the calendar is well worth a look, quite a few revealing events, such as:

25th June - Aftermath of credit crisis: Lessons to be learnt by non-executive directors seminar in Leeds

Could well be right; usually the last Friday of the month, isn't it?

[libspero]

Saw this bumped and thought they must have been leaked early

Back to waiting :angry:

[cartimandua51]

Bump. In case it is today.

[Jason]

down big time!

[BigBlue]

Bump. In case it is today.

Just heard on R4 news 'A report released today stated biggest monthly falls since 1991'.

[garybug]

Declan has just done a trailer for his spot on the BBC saying 'house prices are still falling - and they are falling faster'.

He looked like someone had sh1t in his morning pork pie!

[Bubble_Bobble]

Love the line "Prices are 4.4% lower than this time last year, but remain 5% higher than 2 years ago"

[chalky]

2.5% in May

4.4% YOY

WOW