Anne Ashworth Of The Times Reads Hpc

[crashmonitor]

My main issue with this article is the belief the Bears on this forum somehow got their forecasts wrong.Well scanning back to 28 December 2006 on Jason's prognosticator my predictions for 2007 were for the FT index to register plus 7.5%(the outcome was plus 7.9%)and 7.0% for the land registry(the outcome was plus 6.7%).

Admitted I was wrong with the Haliwide,but for being too bullish,8% as opposed to 5%;I didn't really expect things to detoriorate as quickly as they did and was looking for 2008 to start the ball rolling;though again housepricecrash was the only forum that foresaw the meltdown in the banking system.Indeed the only google result to Northern Rock and bankruptcy on google back in July was from a certain crashmonitor of housepricecrash so I was going round in circles, now there are thousands of results.At the time I thought well NR must be alright then seeing the internet is void of any discussion other than HPC.Not sure what Ashcroft was doing but journo's are f**king crap at foreseeing the obvious.

Quite pleased with progress so far.The -0.8% between Q3 and Q4 2007 is far better than the -0.3% start of the 1989-1996 35% correction between Q2 and Q3 1989.Secondly the slight bounce between mid-November 2007 to now,which is likely to see growth flat or a small rise between Q4 and Q1 spookily replicates the Bull traps of Q4 1989-Q1 1990 and Q4 1990-Q1 1991(both recorded positive growth on Halifax). Ashcroft's memory is poor,but I remember that on both occasions the journos were churping in February 1990 and 1991,that the new paradigm was safe and a housing bust had been averted.

[miccage]

I added this little ditty:

Are you insane? or really that selfish. This rant is easily the poorest attempt at journalism I have ever had the misfortune to read.

Can you not grasp the simple concept that because houses are too expensive a whole generation of people can not afford to buy a house?

Of course Btl has increased the amount of private rented accomodation. It has also massively increased the number of potential tenants by denying them the chance to ever own their own home.

I wouldn't mind so much if the government put in place laws to protect tenants from this new overclass of amateur landlords who seem more than happy to rip-off/make homeless/shaft (delete as appropriate) tennants at every available opportunity without a second thought to the consequences of their actions.

Now who does that sound like?

Go on Anne , you know you want to post it...

[thedebtisreal]

It's over the place at the moment. Alistair Darling, Grant Bovey, Ray Boulger, British Land and now Anne Ashworth. It's fair to say we are still in denial phase.

HPC and the entire financial system

vs

A few petty journalists and scared BTLers.

Book your place in the bankruptcy line, Anne, it's going to be busy.

[0q0]

Everyone has a btl portfolio now, even my doctor. When I asked my doctor what she thought about the current situation she said "property only ever goes up" I sh1t you not. A doctor ffs.

And the doctor wasn't being ironic? Beggars belief! I know the "bricks & mortar" mentality is hard to shake, but...really!

In the crash of 1990's, My house was going down like a stone, but every time the haliwide stuff came on, me and the missus wer STUNNED that they NEVER reflected the losses we were seeing.

We lived in a very desirable house, a dream house, it has never been empty since is was sold for 45% less than we bought it for.

I dont recall seeing 45% drop in ANY figures published by Haliwide.

It will be the same this time.

Oh, and they base their figures on ASKING PRICES.

Same with mine in that they were saying "demand picked up, shortage" etc and mine was hardly getting any viewers.

Celebrity Big Brother 2011, the ex-property commentators special.

lol

I stopped buying the times ages ago - its a comic book - in fact the SUN is better grounded!

Torygraph rules tho.

HAL

Anecdotal from years back: friend of acquaintance etc - Times biz office did or do read The Sun themselves, gets dropped in their office.

[Converted Lurker]

How did that paperweight Anne Ashworth ever get and keep that job? I know people don't read the times for financial commentary but nonetheless deserve more than the wisdom of what may as well be the twelve year old offspring of the local insurance salesman.

there is more literary talent on display on this thread than in some of the editorial spat out by Anne and her team at times. She's also forgotten the seventh rule of fight club - never get personal when writing 'stuff'. Unless you are doing it from the platform of championing a cause it just comes across as bitter. However what with, for example, Rosie Millard and David Smith defending their 'positions' through the medium of their articles/rants perhaps it's now acceptable editorial behaviour

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

In the end it was always going to be difficult for a large demographic cohort to be succeeded by a smaller one. The nature of debt money and fractional reserve banking requiring continuous expansionary growth to function. It was always going to fall down. Could have been avoided if the immorality of deliberately causing rapid housing inflation had been killed in the bud. As it is, I fear that a large number of the 'boomer' generation are either going to be subject to massive erosion of savings by wage and subsequent general inflation, or the path of deflation of housing assets will produce mass bankruptcy.

I'll just stick with being disadvantaged by my own lack of purchasing power, it's just a waiting game.

And I reckon I can afford to wait just a little bit longer than the likes of Anne Ashworth.

Sometimes it pays not to eat all of your pies at once.

Edited February 8, 2008 by DissipatedYouthIsValuable

[Optobear]

It seems that the most nauseating (in my opinion) of the property columnists has been browsing these pages......

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle3325824.ece

I'll slightly defend her. We probably are a little keen to see things fall in terms of house prices, and with such a sluggish entity as the housing market we probably can't expect to see things falling off very fast.

But in our defence the statistics are a bit questionable, for example Nationwide is mortgage applications and they admit that some may not proceed.

We also ought to expect a factor for a few months where falling sales volumes and difficulties in getting mortgages for any but the most credit worthy will cause a distortion to more "quality" houses and higher sale prices.

I think this is like any maxima - like when you chuck a ball in the air, it decelerates, stops, almost seems to hang, then accelarates at an alarming rate and plummets back down. Stock markets are different as they are liquid markets, and prices reflect purchasing and selling intent minute by minute.

But, mortgages are harder to get, the papers are full of negative housing sentiment, repossesions reach a 19 year high, the lagging data shows stagnation, anecdotals are bearish, Soros and Merrill Lynch predict falls, and, and...

Isn't there an expression about "if it looks like a duck...."

[eric pebble]

ANY FTB can afford their new home.

All they need to do is go to their Dogbox broker, lie on their mortgage application about their salary, take a fixed term Interest only loan of 8 times their real combined salaries, and bobs you uncle.

Oh and get their parents to guaranteee the loan.

Yup -- As I have said time and time again --

The ONLY way to get onto the "housing ladder" is to take out a LIAR LOAN

and suffer the consequences..........

[Disillusioned]

She sounds a bit scared about house price falls.

I wonder if her daughter/son or someone close to her has just bought.

Probably as a result of her advice. :angry:

Just a thought but is someone making a list of all the people who write these articles and there email addresses because when this tidal wave does hit, It might be nice to send a mass email out to each one and ask them what they think now!...

BUMP! I think this is a great plan.

My main issue with this article is the belief the Bears on this forum somehow got their forecasts wrong.

Well, that is true to a certain extent. Clearly, your forcasts were quite accurate, but there have been some howlers from us bears over the last 3 years...

[Leonard Hatred]

Ashworth can only succeed if a whole generation are locked out of ever owning a home. Basically, she's just another property parasite.

[sossij]

Only one (very good, mind) comment has been passed for sanctioned viewing so far. Scared of a little constructive criticsim perhaps?

[Paddles]

I had a girlfriend with this perceptive disorder once.

She liked the radio blaring in the morning; I didn't. She thought that my wanting the radio off was "selfish".

She couldn't see that we were both selfishly wanting what we each wanted, and needed to compromise. According to her, only I was selfish. No amount of discussion could get her to see the obvious fact that we both were.

Stupid, maybe, but I would say wilfully stupid for selfish reasons. (Needless to say we are not together .)

On a similar note, did anyone read the article in the FT yesterday about the crisis in Spain? Hilarious quotes from the Spanish Prime Minister, absolute and total denial of reality. And in the same paper, Darling is wheeling out the "supply and demand", "USA only problem" arguments.

I guess if you're in either of those jobs you can't just stand up and say "it's looking really bad" but surely some mild warning is the least you can do?

[Edit - link to the FT article here http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f05fcca6-d51f-11...?nclick_check=1]

Edited February 8, 2008 by Paddles

[OurDayWillCome]

She sounds a bit scared about house price falls.

I wonder if her daughter/son or someone close to her has just bought.

I am really pleased by her article as it shows just how angry and scared she is - why else would she write such drivel. If she is reading this my advice is to sit down love, have a biscuit, take a deep breath... high blood pressure can be a dangerous thing.

Anyone posted a comment yet? Don't TimesOnline show most of them (unlike the BBC).

Edited February 8, 2008 by OurDayWillCome

[OurDayWillCome]

Only one (very good, mind) comment has been passed for sanctioned viewing so far. Scared of a little constructive criticsim perhaps?

Usually they put most of the comments up.

[Paddles]

I am really pleased by her article as it shows just how angry and scared she is - why else would she write such drivel. If she is reading this my advice is to sit down love, have a biscuit, take a deep breath... high blood pressure can be a dangerous thing.

Anyone posted a comment yet? Don't TimesOnline show most of them (unlike the BBC).

I posted one at 9am. It isn't the one that's appeared, surprise surprise.

[Bearback Mountain]

I had a girlfriend with this perceptive disorder once.

She liked the radio blaring in the morning; I didn't. She thought that my wanting the radio off was "selfish".

She couldn't see that we were both selfishly wanting what we each wanted, and needed to compromise. According to her, only I was selfish. No amount of discussion could get her to see the obvious fact that we both were.

Stupid, maybe, but I would say wilfully stupid for selfish reasons. (Needless to say we are not together .)

Welcome to my world.....

[SMAC67]

Before we start foaming at the mouth about journalists, please remember that newspapers in particular and the media in general are simply mouthpieces for their rich owners. As a result they are no more likely to find the truth than I am likely to find Elvis working in a chip shop. Journalists are a combination of sales people, PR people, and writers of fiction. The only thing that is accurate in a newspaper is the date, and occasionally the price.

The whole establishment is running scared, and the media as their mouthpiece is trying to delay the inevitable. It doesn't matter what Anne Ashworth believes, odious though it is, the simple fact is that a recession including HPC is happening now as we type.

She will be believe it when she is made redundant and cannot sell her property.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

And the doctor wasn't being ironic? Beggars belief! I know the "bricks & mortar" mentality is hard to shake, but...really!

I kid you not.

there is more literary talent on display on this thread than in some of the editorial spat out by Anne and her team at times. She's also forgotten the seventh rule of fight club - never get personal when writing 'stuff'. Unless you are doing it from the platform of championing a cause it just comes across as bitter. However what with, for example, Rosie Millard and David Smith defending their 'positions' through the medium of their articles/rants perhaps it's now acceptable editorial behaviour

there are a few posters on here that keep breaking this rule also imo. I am a true realist, regardless of whether I will be better or worse off with the outcome, I just want to know what will really happen, not what I think should happen.

[Bearback Mountain]

Before we start foaming at the mouth about journalists, please remember that newspapers in particular and the media in general are simply mouthpieces for their rich owners. As a result they are no more likely to find the truth than I am likely to find Elvis working in a chip shop. Journalists are a combination of sales people, PR people, and writers of fiction. The only thing that is accurate in a newspaper is the date, and occasionally the price.

The whole establishment is running scared, and the media as their mouthpiece is trying to delay the inevitable. It doesn't matter what Anne Ashworth believes, odious though it is, the simple fact is that a recession including HPC is happening now as we type.

She will be believe it when she is made redundant and cannot sell her property.

Hi Anne.

[Converted Lurker]

Before we start foaming at the mouth about journalists, please remember that newspapers in particular and the media in general are simply mouthpieces for their rich owners. As a result they are no more likely to find the truth than I am likely to find Elvis working in a chip shop. Journalists are a combination of sales people, PR people, and writers of fiction. The only thing that is accurate in a newspaper is the date, and occasionally the price.

The whole establishment is running scared, and the media as their mouthpiece is trying to delay the inevitable. It doesn't matter what Anne Ashworth believes, odious though it is, the simple fact is that a recession including HPC is happening now as we type.

She will be believe it when she is made redundant and cannot sell her property.

good post, I've noticed a bitterness creeping into publications such as mortgage strategy and the group of publications that include mortgage introducer. I suspect there will be carnage in the publishing 'stuff about the mortgage industry' as choice is for the most part eradicated, similarly I can't see much point in; Fool, Moneyexpert or Moneysupermarket etc when no one's got any spare money to move around etc.

[yellerkat]

She will be believe it when she is made redundant and cannot sell her property.

You're not saying she gets paid for that drivel, are you?

[Yoss]

I don't think we revel in Human Misery! Infact most people I know would probably be a shed load happier if 58% of thier take home pay didn't go on paying for the roof over thier head.

So if house prices crash, the only losers are those that have over extended or speculated.

Everyone else is a winner, if you could buy a house outright for a fiver then just think of the holidays/cars/parties/food/nights out etc you could afford with what was left of your disposable income.

Hell you might even start paying into a pension to provide for your old age or save some cash so you could retrian you skills. Take some years off work to look after your kids.

High house prices != Quality of life...It does equal bigger borrowing, higher wage costs (making UK less competitive) less jobs, higher unemployement, bigger wealfare state, higher taxes etc etc etc.

So Ann is either

a) Over extended

A Speculator

c) Sitting on a large pile of equity (That us scary doom mongers might talk away... like it never existed....Poof)

d) Employee by a VI

Equity is worth a thousand posts..

[debt_scared]

"There is, for example, very little similarity between the economic conditions today and the sorry situation that precipitated the housing crash of the early Nineties."

Large balance of trade deficit, surging inflation, jittery stockmarkets? Nope, she's right none of those.

If the economists at mortgage lenders were only cheerleaders driven by the desire to boost the sales of home loans, they would not have voiced their concerns early in 2007 that the sector was set to weaken. These commentators can also claim that their past forecasts have been accurate - unlike those of their online detractors.

She's right again, mortgage lenders' strategic policies haven't lost them billions, by failing to predict the crash in America and Spain.

Regarding the thread title, I doubt she reads anything other than press releases.

[Levy process]

You're not saying she gets paid for that drivel, are you?

Sure! Look how much attention it's got on here! That's gonna sell papers, get viewers etc. Journalists only don't get paid if nobody cares what they write.

[miccage]

Only one (very good, mind) comment has been passed for sanctioned viewing so far. Scared of a little constructive criticsim perhaps?

Spoke too soon.

This has now been removed.