When Did You Call The Crash?

[Guest barebear]

The first time I called it was 1999 then re-bought in 2001 and called it again in 2004 but still haven't re-bought.

I was wrong big time on both counts and have watched mates buying up BTL and making shed loads.Bitter ? You bet I am.

There are so many VI's determined to stop a crash that I think the best we can hope for is below 5% increases yoy.

Dont matter anyway to me now,I'm priced out even though Ive got a huge deposit,I refuse to get a 150k mortgage when the most Ive ever had has been 40k.

For the life of me I can't see how people are affording these huge mortgages on 30k salaries for the most part.I thought a 40k mortgage @ 6% was too much now I know a hospital worker with a 229k mortgage and a mini cab drive with a 180k mortgage.Now I've been the latter in the past and there is no way in gods earth can you afford a 180k mortgage as a mini cab driver.So w.t.f's going on I feel I'm living in a nightmare where everything is skewed and everything that doesn't work does.

[Confounded]

I bought in 2001 at the earliest time I could after saving a deposit and securing a good job, by this point I was thinking a crash was possible but I faced that fear and bought.

I guess the time I called the crash first was 2005, we had made equity but a crash was need for us to climb the ladder from our 2 bed starter home and I was at this point hoping our equity (HPI not our over payments!) would be wiped out so we could make this next move. All was going to plan then we all know what has happened.

I tried to buy a few homes beggining of 2006 only to be outbid in sealed bids which has led to me throwing the towel in and STR in Feb this year (needed a bigger house because of new family arrival and will be changing jobs and location imminently)

Having said this 2 of my best friends are buying now after long periods of renting, they feel they have to buy especially as they are getting married this summer. One of them is buying the house they are renting now which if they put the same money in savings after tax would return them enough money to pay the rent and leave them the same amount again spare (they have the money because they have just inherited it!).

With this still going on it causes me to doubt my view, but only briefly, I am 100% certain we are in the closing stages with what is happening round the World currently.

[crashmonitor]

Called it for Q1 2005,and that was the case for the East Midlands.Couldn't get out in time though because of the illiquid nature of property and sold 18 months too late in June 2006.Since the Autumn of 2006I have believed we will not get a Nationwide correction until 2008 because of the accommodative interest rate policy.

[insidetrack]

I'm calling the top now. I've thought prices were too high for several years but the conditions for bringing them down weren't there. Those conditions are now in place and cannot be wished away by the BoE, the MPC or Gordon Brown. The housing market has run out of steam, hundreds of thousands are over committed and there will be no way out for them. The property boom is dead and buried.

[mbga9pgf]

I'm calling the top now. I've thought prices were too high for several years but the conditions for bringing them down weren't there. Those conditions are now in place and cannot be wished away by the BoE, the MPC or Gordon Brown. The housing market has run out of steam, hundreds of thousands are over committed and there will be no way out for them. The property boom is dead and buried.

Called it for the first time Q1 2007. And if I am wrong, i am convinced I am not too wrong. we wont have to wait long now. Forecasting

1) dropping house prices

2) oversupply as BTL brigade drop properties like hot potatoes

3) US recession to kick in sometime next year around the same time

4) 30% down I reckon over 6-7 years. Taking in account of inflation.

[bob monkhouse]

The first time I called it was 1999 then re-bought in 2001 and called it again in 2004 but still haven't re-bought.

I was wrong big time on both counts and have watched mates buying up BTL and making shed loads.Bitter ? You bet I am.

There are so many VI's determined to stop a crash that I think the best we can hope for is below 5% increases yoy.

Dont matter anyway to me now,I'm priced out even though Ive got a huge deposit,I refuse to get a 150k mortgage when the most Ive ever had has been 40k.

For the life of me I can't see how people are affording these huge mortgages on 30k salaries for the most part.I thought a 40k mortgage @ 6% was too much now I know a hospital worker with a 229k mortgage and a mini cab drive with a 180k mortgage.Now I've been the latter in the past and there is no way in gods earth can you afford a 180k mortgage as a mini cab driver.So w.t.f's going on I feel I'm living in a nightmare where everything is skewed and everything that doesn't work does.

A refreshingly honest post!

Called it 2004. Was fully bearish until mid 2006. Now I think there's still a bit of life left in the old girl.

[@contradevian]

I'm calling the top now. I've thought prices were too high for several years but the conditions for bringing them down weren't there. Those conditions are now in place and cannot be wished away by the BoE, the MPC or Gordon Brown. The housing market has run out of steam, hundreds of thousands are over committed and there will be no way out for them. The property boom is dead and buried.

I'm calling the top now too, because unless you are in Prime London, property is stagnant/falling and most first time buyers have twigged that buying at the top isn't a good idea.

I last called the top back in 1989/90 when I just got out in the nick of time and sold a property for £100k (bought for £27500k five years earlier). I'd have easily lost £20-30 in the subsequent crash of 1990. (I hasten to add that same property now would be worth well over £250k-£300k)

I tried to buy again in 2001/2 in the West Midlands with rapidly rising prices I was almost priced out then can called the top (incorrectly). Bearing in mind I recall a lot of my friends getting badly burned with the house price crash of 1990 with negitive equity. However I didn't reckon on 9/11, the BoE and another inflationary splurge, to stop world recession. I was also largely ignorant of "cheap" asian money, the carry trade etc which has kept the asset balloon in Western economies going.

I don't entirely trust the MPC and the Government to engineer more inflation to magic away the massive amount of consumer and mortgage debt. As for how these people on £30k are going to pay their horrendous mortgages they will really, really struggle, unless the govenment magically inflates the debt away for them. There are however better economists on this forum than me that might be able to explain why the Government this time, might not be able to do this.

[ae589]

I called the peak Nov 06... but I've thought houses were overpriced since 2002!

[defweb]

i called the top in the summer of 04 but i guess the reduction of interest rates in August put my estimation to bed. I will be a FTB when houses seem value for money and have said 60-70k since i began employment in 04. Hopefully cash will be king in the downturn. i.e no 100% mortgages etc.

think we are in the midst of a mild slowdown but im not sure we will see falls in real terms unless rates go up to 6% soon.

[Scott]

I called it Q1 2008. And I still believe this to be the case. The sheeple have not even realised there is a problem.

BTL'ers are still out there buying, although quite why I do not know.

I may be proved wrong as it could be 2007 what with all the goings on at the moment.

I think the tipping point will be when BoE rate is 6%, which is not far off now. Inflation is what will tip the edge as it will force rates up.

Us bears will get our honey soon enough. And I've changed my mind on how long the bottom of the drop will take. Originally I thought five years, now I'm thinking it will be quicker. This global economy is gonna make it quick.

[tenroom]

Called it for the first time Q1 2007. And if I am wrong, i am convinced I am not too wrong. we wont have to wait long now. Forecasting

1) dropping house prices

2) oversupply as BTL brigade drop properties like hot potatoes

3) US recession to kick in sometime next year around the same time

4) 30% down I reckon over 6-7 years. Taking in account of inflation.

I don't think the US is going to go into recession . . .. well not a deep and prolonged one at any rate. Any damage as a result of their housing bust has been largely limited to people who - for lack of a better description - simply don't matter. They still have very low unemployment and there doesn't appear to be any major single catalyst in sight. It does appear that we are in a "Golden age for capitalism" and time-honoured, reliable signs of impending doom are no longer relevant.

We have full employment, the crowing on this site at the prospect of inflation busting pay deals has proven to be embarrassingly premature and the financial sector is still seeing no abatement in M&A activity. It all looks rosy . . . but . . . I've got this feeling. Can't quite place it but something is definitely going to blow up and it's going to start with the hedge funds and PE. Watch this space . . .

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

question: when did you call the crash ??

I presume this rules out the following posters (in no particular order ):

RB

Kagiso

PG

Shedfish

GOM

Q1 2007.

ps - I think I would have also called it for 2005 if I had been on this site a couple of years earlier to be honest.

[sortofsilver]

2001....then....2002....then....2003....then....2004....

Hang on i see a pattern developing! Every year i called it nothing happened, so by this logic i dont call the last quarter of 2007. Which means it will happen. So i call the last quarter of 2007! Doh!

[HOwner]

According to RealistBear, it has been going on since the beginning of 2005, if not sooner!

[Dr Doom]

Called it 2003/2004, and have been consistently bearish since then.

Didn't quite anticipate how insane things were going to get.

[red]

Mid-2005. Who knows what would have happened had the BoE not rescued the ailing market with that Aug 05 rate cut... :angry:

However, by doing this I believe they have engineered the climate for a bigger crash - my current estimate for YoY negative figures is May 08.

[stevie1969]

By 'Crash' - If you mean when will HPI go negative then that will be this autumn Q3 2007. If you mean when did sentiment turn and the rate of increase of HPI start to fall, then I called that January 2007 after the chock 0.25% january rise.

Up until January the media covergae of house prices was up and up. Now the media coverage is much more level headed and talks openly of a downturn.

Prices will drop Q3 and Q4 this year. Lenders will tighten their lending criteria Q1 08 and then there will be a significant fall to Q3 08.

A total correction in only one year of 30/40% in the south east - less depending on location in the country.

Then HPI at 6/7% annual Q4 08 onwards.

[redwing]

I was worried in 1999. Bought a house that was being used as a student shared house. Property had already nearly doubled in the space of 3 years from when I first bought in 1996. (bought for £102K in '96 and sold for £190K in '99.)

I thought the landlord was really canny to get out in time.

Looking back at 1999 it was 10 years since the previous correction and there was a lot of pre-millennial tension around.

[Guest xeouialp]

I first called it in 1936 but then Hitler invaded the Rhineland which gave a temporary boost to the defence industry and prices up here in the Midlands started rising. STR'd in 1939 to go and work as a plumber in Danzig and to get a bit of practice with my Polish. That was a mistake. After my rescue in 1945 I managed to get back to England but found my deposit had been used by the Government so I had to start again. Got allocated a Council house in 1951 and stayed there till I bought again in 1964. Made a killing during the last year of the Heath Government and bought a small flat in Peckham. Sold that to a stockbroker in 1989 and decided to put the proceeds in the bank and go to East Germany to team up with some old mates and to live in a State-sponsored commune. It was The "Big Idea" at the time. Then the State collapsed. It was a bit of a blow, we were all made homeless for a while. So I got allocated another flat in Peckham and managed to buy it off the Council in 1994 on a 20-year mortgage. Now looking for a penthouse retirement flat in Gdansk again, I fancy the sea air, might get round to polishing up my Polish. I mean I would call top but on past experience other things seem to get in the way.

[redwing]

I first called it in 1936 but then Hitler invaded the Rhineland which gave a temporary boost to the defence industry and prices up here in the Midlands started rising. STR'd in 1939 to go and work as a plumber in Danzig and to get a bit of practice with my Polish. That was a mistake...... I mean I would call top but on past experience other things seem to get in the way.

lmfao. quality post.

[headmelter]

I've thought prices have been high since 2002. I eventually sold Aug 04 moved back to the north of Ireland and bought again in Feb 05.

I called the top of the market Q2 this year but don't think there will be any serious falls until Q1, Q2 of 2008. I would love to STR but we are in a good area near schools and work and my missus thinks it would be too much hassle. We may be able to move up when the downturn comes as we have a reasonable cash deposit.

As previous posters have said all the indicators are here it's just a matter of time now.

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

I first called it in 1936 but then Hitler invaded the Rhineland which gave a temporary boost to the defence industry and prices up here in the Midlands started rising. STR'd in 1939 to go and work as a plumber in Danzig and to get a bit of practice with my Polish. That was a mistake. After my rescue in 1945 I managed to get back to England but found my deposit had been used by the Government so I had to start again. Got allocated a Council house in 1951 and stayed there till I bought again in 1964. Made a killing during the last year of the Heath Government and bought a small flat in Peckham. Sold that to a stockbroker in 1989 and decided to put the proceeds in the bank and go to East Germany to team up with some old mates and to live in a State-sponsored commune. It was The "Big Idea" at the time. Then the State collapsed. It was a bit of a blow, we were all made homeless for a while. So I got allocated another flat in Peckham and managed to buy it off the Council in 1994 on a 20-year mortgage. Now looking for a penthouse retirement flat in Gdansk again, I fancy the sea air, might get round to polishing up my Polish. I mean I would call top but on past experience other things seem to get in the way.

I've finally found someone worse at predicting things than me (and that takes some doing).

[@contradevian]

Indeed, it is sobering to reflect that over the last 35 years, each period of real house-price inflation, however long it was, was followed by an almost identically long period of real house depreciation. On that count, the fact that we have enjoyed nearly a decade of uninterrupted real price growth might suggest that the coming period of deflation won’t look so much like the UK 1990-1996 ‘crash’, but more like Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ of deflationary recession, which actually lasted 15 years.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/7067/whats-r...rty-market.html

(that was written 20.01.2006 btw)

the question is even if this the start of the crash, are you prepared to wait 10-15 years for house prices to finally bottom out?

[Guest barebear]

I was worried in 1999. Bought a house that was being used as a student shared house. Property had already nearly doubled in the space of 3 years from when I first bought in 1996. (bought for £102K in '96 and sold for £190K in '99.)

I thought the landlord was really canny to get out in time.

Looking back at 1999 it was 10 years since the previous correction and there was a lot of pre-millennial tension around.

Well theres 2 of us then that thought 1999 would crash,I cant see anyone else admitting to it though,I was working on a 10 year cycle,I wonder if because there was no crash in 99 there will be a double one in 2009.

[scoobydo]

I called the crash in early 05, put the house on the market in september of that year, sold it six months later in march 06. On the site where i was working in 05, prospective buyers were few and far between and 'talk on the tools' was of a slow down on the way. Then August came and the rate cut. This seemed to breed buyers like rabbits, all of a sudden everything was moving again. Fine for the pay packet but what about selling the house, why had we only had three viewings in four months, things just didn't stack up, and before anyone quips, no it wasn,t a sh!t hole on the Bronx, more like the benchmark street for the town, even the estate agent said if houses are not selling on this street, they're not selling. So, where I live, I am sticking with 05, a very slow start, and for any 'chartists' out there a double top thrown in for good measure, 05 it is.

Edited June 10, 2007 by scoobydo