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Scott

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  1. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1271126/Bond-market-traders-poised-unprecedented-1am-sell-gilts-ahead-hung-parliament.html "Traders will be able to buy and sell government bonds at 1am on Friday morning for the first time so that they can react to the outcome of the general election. The London futures market (LIFFE) will open just three hours after polls close so that traders will have the chance to dump gilts if a hung parliament is looking likely. It is the first time that the LIFFE futures exchange has opened during the night and all eyes will be on the gilt market as investors give an instant verdict on the poll results. If either party looks like they have taken an outright majority then traders will be expected to buy up government bonds as quickly as they can. The move by LIFFE to open at 1am was prompted by London traders who did not want to be caught out by an unexpected result which might leave their gilt-holdings at a loss when they came in for work on Friday morning. One trader told the FT: 'This is going to be an all-nighter for a lot of traders. 'No-one wants to leave at 6pm as we normally would, only to be back at your desk at 7am with the market selling like crazy. 'A trader wants to be the first to sell, not the last when the price has gone against then.' Market players will want to make money either by selling gilts if the results are seen as bad for Britain, or buying them, if the outcome is thought to be good. But heavy selling would cause huge problems for the new government, which would have to offer much higher interest rates on new gilts in order to finance the State's borrowings. Liffe said it had taken the step to let market users react to the results. Along with gilt futures, trading will be allowed also in sterling interest-rate derivatives and FTSE 100 futures contracts. However, Liffe warned market members that the Election could 'give rise to uncertainty and/or volatility'. Last month giant Deutsche Bank warned that an outright Tory victory would be the best outcome for the British economy, because of the Conservative commitment to take action faster on reducing the budget deficit. In a note to investors, the firm's equity strategist Jim Reid said: 'The best result for UK equities is likely to be an outright victory for the Conservative party. 'Although an outright Labour victory would help create certainty, the lack of urgency in their deficit reduction plans may be negative for gilt yields and may alert the rating agencies'. A gilt is a UK Government liability in sterling, issued by the Treasury and listed on the London Stock Exchange. The term 'gilt' or 'gilt-edged security' is a reference to what is regarded as one of the most secure forms of investment as the British government has never defaulted on its interest payments."
  2. Yes, but £38,400 for every full-time working person in the country!!!!
  3. Looking at the UK National Debt clock on The Times Business page - http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/ - at the date/time of this topic being posted it is over £928 billion. At the rate of growth it currently has the £1 trillion figure will be hit on June 13th 2010. Too late for the elections but a massive milestone for whoever gets into power!!!
  4. It's ironic that Gruffyd tried to post this as a doubling of sales, not properties for sale. I suppose the article may have confused him a little as it is trying to hoodwink people into believing it is sales. But alas, it is only properties for sale. Crash now at def con 4.
  5. No, they would have 100% more to lend. And that would sort their balance sheets out pronto!!!
  6. So in one brief interview he has pretty much admitted that interest rates will stay low and QE will carry on. Gilts up, pound down and our credit rating shot to pieces.
  7. One of the news people on Radio 2 said the pound had gone up against the dollar and said this was due to the 'Bank of England hinting of rate rises'. Anyone else hear this?
  8. Scott

    Unemployment Will Peak At 2.8M

    Just put my comment in the Have Your Say. Something along the lines of - "Unemployment will peak higher than 2.8 million purely for the simple reason that the public sector will have to take a hit once the election is done. This will also affect the private sector. You have been warned!!!!". Doubt the BBC will put that up though as it's far too negative for Gordo's propaganda.
  9. Scott

    Our Deficit

    Yeah, but unfortunately it's £35k for every full time working person!!
  10. In 1979/1980 we were nowhere near in the trouble globally that we are now and yet gold was triple then. So $2,400 would be bare minimum at present. So a long way to go yet!!! This latest drop is just a small blip to take out the weakest holders. Watch it go up massively from this point forward. I'm not pulling out til it gets to £1,700. Yes it dropped on less than expected bad unemployment figures from the US. But don't forget the figures were still negative and I don't see anything to prove that the US is going to improve anytime soon.
  11. Add this list to that too:- Stamp duty reversed (although they may extend this one). VAT back to 17.5% at least. Election in May - whoever gets in will have to reign in government debt by increasing taxes and cutting public sector jobs by around 15%. Private sector jobs cut due to lack of public spending. Fear when all this happens.
  12. We've been printing money via Quantitative Easing at the rate of £960 per month for every full-time working person in the UK. No wonder there are some small signs of recovery (like manufacturing). But what happens when QE stops? Even though we've spent this money we're still in recession. Take this out of the equation and GDP is gonna drop like a stone. Has QE created a new remedy for the old ways? A friend of mine seems to think so. I have very serious doubts. Doing the equivalent of introducing £960 for every full time working person to spend that doesn't get us out of recession is absolutely mad!
  13. Er, no we're not yet. And we've spent £25billion a month just to keep in that recession. What happens when the printing of money stops? GDP will sink like a stone. Yes, and after the elections there will be massive public sector redundancies. Do you think this will help too?
  14. Scott

    Times Online Poll

    85.9%. Get your votes in.
  15. Scott

    Times Online Poll

    Now 85.2% say NO.
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