azogar Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) Well peeps it's nearly time for Nationwides first 08 quarterly report, what will be the latest average nominal cost of a house in NI? So my question is what percentage change can we expect to this average house price cost? Please note the following: - I will work out the correct % change when the data is available. - The poll focuses on the change in average nominal price and not hpi (indexed data); hence this is 'real'* data (or as real as possible - there is some seasonal adjustment). - There is generally a delay between this data and other NI HP reports based on 'index' data. - The data is nominal and not adjusted for inflation. I am going for -5 to -10% (remember it is three months data change were talking here) The last three nationwide quarterly average nominal NI HPs were: Q2 2007 - 225447 Q3 2007 - 227970 Q4 2007 - 224816 *For more info on this data go here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=68017 Edited March 28, 2008 by prophet-profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 If Nationwide have stopped giving people mortgages, how are they going to continue compiling this report? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted March 28, 2008 Author Share Posted March 28, 2008 If Nationwide have stopped giving people mortgages, how are they going to continue compiling this report? good question! although I think it's a case of Nationwide becoming less competitive with their current mortgage deals; but this may have an impact on their number of new mortgage transactions as well of course, so the data sample size may be reduced in the future. It would be good to get data on NI Mortgage transactions (number) only - anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
championmongo1 Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 I voted for 0-5% rise because there were no bigger rise percentages! lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul65 Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) I voted for 0-5% rise because there were no bigger rise percentages! lol! Cheeky! Nice one championmongo. Good to see you back here. Your post gave me a chuckle! Good banter. Anyhoo for those that haven't/can't decide which way to vote in this poll I thought that the following attached graph might help you make your minds up. Looks like the big dipper at Barry's in Portrush .... or maybe the Pepsi Max Big One in Blackpool? Actually on a serious note did I just spot a bull trap in the Nationwide graph between October and November 2007? Edited March 28, 2008 by paul65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
championmongo1 Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 Cheeky! Nice one championmongo. Good to see you back here. Your post gave me a chuckle! Good banter. Anyhoo for those that haven't/can't decide which way to vote in this poll I thought that the following attached graph might help you make your minds up. Looks like the big dipper at Barry's in Portrush .... or maybe the Pepsi Max Big One in Blackpool? Actually on a serious note did I just spot a bull trap in the Nationwide graph between October and November 2007? It's funny, your picture says reduced by 64%, now is that referring to the picture size or house prices??? lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravedave Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in March, bringing the annual rate of increase to its lowest in 12 years, a key survey showed on Friday. So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises. 5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported. Opinions... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
championmongo1 Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported. Opinions... According to Nationwide, although house prices have fallen for five consecutive months, prices are still 1.1% higher than at this point last year. However I suspect when the next figures are out it will an annual rate of decrease will shine through! 5 out of 144 does look like a blip but if that becomes say 15 in a row out of 154 maybe sentiment will be completely negative? However if we get to say 10 out of 149 and a rise in month 150 maybe positive sentiment will return once more!?! Edited March 28, 2008 by championmongo1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted March 28, 2008 Author Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported. Opinions... The great thing about the Nationwide Quarterly releases is that you can get NI data only - The overall 'UK' picture masks what has been going on here in NI. We (NI) are at the forefront of the 'correction' - see the last RICS survey for instance edit - remember this poll is for the % change of the last quarter for NI only Edited March 28, 2008 by prophet-profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
championmongo1 Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 (edited) The great thing about the Nationwide Quarterly releases is that you can get NI data only - The overall 'UK' picture masks what has been going on here in NI.We (NI) are at the forefront of the 'correction' - see the last RICS survey for instance edit - remember this poll is for the % change of the last quarter for NI only I was talking about NI only! Seriously though, when the whole UK market has negative annual growth, will the VI's starting talking about growth over the past decade??? Edited March 28, 2008 by championmongo1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported. Opinions... I think it depends what time boundaries you use - instead of going back 10 years, why not go back 20? I'm sure it would paint quite a different story. When viewing trends, it's very dangerous to make predictions based on a period which is too short to reflect the overall trend appropriately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmca22gr Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported. Opinions... If they don't rise broadly in line with inflation, then surely it must be seen as a fall? 11 plus question: Peter gets paid 10 apples in year one, but a house costs 100 apples. In year two he gets 12 apples and in year 3 he gets 15 apples, but houses still cost 100 apples. Has the relative price of houses risen or fallen during the three years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S S Posted March 28, 2008 Share Posted March 28, 2008 If Nationwide have stopped giving people mortgages, how are they going to continue compiling this report? Good point. Although I though you would have kept that one to discredit a positive report if it comes. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Q1 2007 203815 Q2 2007 225447 Q3 2007 227970 Q4 2007 224816 Q1 2008 196892 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 approx. 12.5% drop quarter on quarter (nominal data of course) well done the 2 of you who guessed right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 Is the NI nominal price graph available including the latest figures? Ta very much... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 (edited) Is the NI nominal price graph available including the latest figures?Ta very much... my own take... edit - that's quite a steep decline for 1 quarter IMHO Edited April 4, 2008 by prophet-profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 In future economic circles that'll probably be known as a Northern Ireland curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 In future economic circles that'll probably be known as a Northern Ireland curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sogy Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 In future economic circles that'll probably be known as a Northern Ireland curve. Looks very similar to NASDAQ some 7 years ago... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Given the illiquid nature of house prices, the rate of decline there is probably more than was expected by most. Revision of forecast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 edit - that's quite a steep decline for 1 quarter IMHO Quite? Very more like! That's a huge drop! Are those official figures then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted April 4, 2008 Author Share Posted April 4, 2008 Quite? Very more like! That's a huge drop! Are those official figures then? yep - natwide data download (nominal averaged regional quarterly post 73) ps - my quite is your very Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 yep - natwide data download (nominal averaged regional quarterly post 73)ps - my quite is your very Staggering! BTW, what's your very? A vertical drop?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeDavola Posted April 4, 2008 Share Posted April 4, 2008 (edited) I think it'll be between 5 and 10%. I'd be surprised if it were less than 5. We have a long, long way to fall. Edited April 4, 2008 by JoeDavola Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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