Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
p.p.

Poll - Next Nationwide Quarterly Data Release Average Ni House Price % Change

Recommended Posts

Well peeps it's nearly time for Nationwides first 08 quarterly report, what will be the latest average nominal cost of a house in NI?

So my question is what percentage change can we expect to this average house price cost?

Please note the following:

- I will work out the correct % change when the data is available.

- The poll focuses on the change in average nominal price and not hpi (indexed data); hence this is 'real'* data (or as real as possible - there is some seasonal adjustment).

- There is generally a delay between this data and other NI HP reports based on 'index' data.

- The data is nominal and not adjusted for inflation.

I am going for -5 to -10% (remember it is three months data change were talking here)

The last three nationwide quarterly average nominal NI HPs were:

Q2 2007 - 225447

Q3 2007 - 227970

Q4 2007 - 224816

*For more info on this data go here: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=68017

Edited by prophet-profit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Nationwide have stopped giving people mortgages, how are they going to continue compiling this report? :unsure:

:lol: good question!

although I think it's a case of Nationwide becoming less competitive with their current mortgage deals; but this may have an impact on their number of new mortgage transactions as well of course, so the data sample size may be reduced in the future. It would be good to get data on NI Mortgage transactions (number) only - anyone?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I voted for 0-5% rise because there were no bigger rise percentages! lol!

Cheeky!

Nice one championmongo. Good to see you back here. Your post gave me a chuckle! :lol: Good banter.

Anyhoo for those that haven't/can't decide which way to vote in this poll I thought that the following attached graph might help you make your minds up.

house_price_mar08.gif

Looks like the big dipper at Barry's in Portrush .... or maybe the Pepsi Max Big One in Blackpool?

Actually on a serious note did I just spot a bull trap in the Nationwide graph between October and November 2007?

post-11694-1206703817_thumb.png

Edited by paul65

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cheeky!

Nice one championmongo. Good to see you back here. Your post gave me a chuckle! :lol: Good banter.

Anyhoo for those that haven't/can't decide which way to vote in this poll I thought that the following attached graph might help you make your minds up.

house_price_mar08.gif

Looks like the big dipper at Barry's in Portrush .... or maybe the Pepsi Max Big One in Blackpool?

Actually on a serious note did I just spot a bull trap in the Nationwide graph between October and November 2007?

It's funny, your picture says reduced by 64%, now is that referring to the picture size or house prices??? lol!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
LONDON (Reuters) - House prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in March, bringing the annual rate of increase to its lowest in 12 years, a key survey showed on Friday.

So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.

5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported.

Opinions...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.

5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported.

Opinions...

According to Nationwide, although house prices have fallen for five consecutive months, prices are still 1.1% higher than at this point last year. However I suspect when the next figures are out it will an annual rate of decrease will shine through!

5 out of 144 does look like a blip but if that becomes say 15 in a row out of 154 maybe sentiment will be completely negative? However if we get to say 10 out of 149 and a rise in month 150 maybe positive sentiment will return once more!?!

Edited by championmongo1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.

5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported.

Opinions...

The great thing about the Nationwide Quarterly releases is that you can get NI data only - The overall 'UK' picture masks what has been going on here in NI.

We (NI) are at the forefront of the 'correction' - see the last RICS survey for instance

edit - remember this poll is for the % change of the last quarter for NI only

Edited by prophet-profit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The great thing about the Nationwide Quarterly releases is that you can get NI data only - The overall 'UK' picture masks what has been going on here in NI.

We (NI) are at the forefront of the 'correction' - see the last RICS survey for instance

edit - remember this poll is for the % change of the last quarter for NI only

I was talking about NI only! :P Seriously though, when the whole UK market has negative annual growth, will the VI's starting talking about growth over the past decade??? :lol::lol::lol:

Edited by championmongo1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.

5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported.

Opinions...

I think it depends what time boundaries you use - instead of going back 10 years, why not go back 20? I'm sure it would paint quite a different story. When viewing trends, it's very dangerous to make predictions based on a period which is too short to reflect the overall trend appropriately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.

5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported.

Opinions...

If they don't rise broadly in line with inflation, then surely it must be seen as a fall?

11 plus question:

Peter gets paid 10 apples in year one, but a house costs 100 apples.

In year two he gets 12 apples and in year 3 he gets 15 apples, but houses still cost 100 apples.

Has the relative price of houses risen or fallen during the three years?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Nationwide have stopped giving people mortgages, how are they going to continue compiling this report? :unsure:

Good point. Although I though you would have kept that one to discredit a positive report if it comes. lol ;):blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

approx. 12.5% drop quarter on quarter (nominal data of course)

well done the 2 of you who guessed right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the NI nominal price graph available including the latest figures?

Ta very much...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Is the NI nominal price graph available including the latest figures?

Ta very much...

my own take...

nat-latest.jpg

edit - that's quite a steep decline for 1 quarter IMHO

Edited by prophet-profit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In future economic circles that'll probably be known as a Northern Ireland curve.

Looks very similar to NASDAQ some 7 years ago...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the illiquid nature of house prices, the rate of decline there is probably more than was expected by most.

Revision of forecast?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
edit - that's quite a steep decline for 1 quarter IMHO

Quite? Very more like! That's a huge drop! Are those official figures then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quite? Very more like! That's a huge drop! Are those official figures then?

yep - natwide data download (nominal averaged regional quarterly post 73)

ps - my quite is your very ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
yep - natwide data download (nominal averaged regional quarterly post 73)

ps - my quite is your very ;)

Staggering!

BTW, what's your very? A vertical drop?! :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it'll be between 5 and 10%.

I'd be surprised if it were less than 5. We have a long, long way to fall.

Edited by JoeDavola

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.