DoctorJ Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 (edited) Was listening to radio 5 Live this morning at about 7.30am and heard some guy saying that US was likely to go into recession, UK would keep rates relatively high and narrowly avoid a recession....and then he predicted that house prices would drop but only by 10% The media and financial pundits all seem to be calling a relatively modest bear market for UK property. Some seem to be prediciting a 5% drop at the start of 2008 followed by continued growth in the second half of the year, others going up to 10% drops for 2008 followed by a rebound in 2009. This guy on 5Live this morning seemed to know what he was talking about so why shouldn't we trust his judgement? Are we expecting too much from this HPC? Personally, I am expecting 25-30% drops over 2008-2010. Edited January 29, 2008 by DoctorJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 and then he predicted that house prices would drop but only by 10% Considering that we've only recently seen a switch from predictions of prices only ever going up, then to prices staying flat, and now to 10% falls, I think we can safely double or triple that figure out here in what the economics boffins call (with their charming love of jargon) "reality". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Hatred Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Considering that we've only recently seen a switch from predictions of prices only ever going up, then to prices staying flat, and now to 10% falls, I think we can safely double or triple that figure out here in what the economics boffins call (with their charming love of jargon) "reality". My thoughts, too! When even the biggest rampers are saying "prices will remain flat", expect decent falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gremlin Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Maybe they mean 10 per cent this year followed by similar declines Y/Y for the period of financial instability ( at least 3 years ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KingCharles1st Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 well its to be doubled- so thats 20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otters Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Considering that we've only recently seen a switch from predictions of prices only ever going up, then to prices staying flat, and now to 10% falls, I think we can safely double or triple that figure out here in what the economics boffins call (with their charming love of jargon) "reality". Take your pick of this lot. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/wiki/1991...icted_this_year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Considering that we've only recently seen a switch from predictions of prices only ever going up, then to prices staying flat, and now to 10% falls, I think we can safely double or triple that figure out here in what the economics boffins call (with their charming love of jargon) "reality". Agreed. "There's more chance of finding Elvis etc..." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxD Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Parents just sold a flat. 225 asking price, sold for 218. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 10% will do for starters, .. once the downward curve starts people will be very wary about going near it, thus momentum will gather.. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou..._id=57&ct=5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babesagainstmachines Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Parents just sold a flat. 225 asking price, sold for 218. There ya go then chaps. 3% right there already I'm sure GOM will come along and post his stages of denial for us. Personally, I think we are going to see 15% over 18 months then a protracted bear market for 7 or 8 years. Simply because that's how long it will take for banks to repair there balance sheets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 (edited) 10%? Wishful thinking from the VIs. Whenever anyone predicts the drop to be so little I ask them if they'd have predicted 10 years ago that we'd have had such a monumental boom. That's when they go quiet. Of course, 10% coming down is more that 10% going up but I'd be surprised to see less that 30% drops. Edited January 29, 2008 by red Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkyB Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 my neighbours have just moved into place next door to me, they brought in sept, and now are selling and put up for 5 k more than they brought. I expect, looking at the other marketed properties, that they haven't a hope of getting the price they are expecting... but time will certainly tell... kitchen is far too small, only now having experienced this do I actually think this now, where as before, I was of the opinion "it will do". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muggle Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Last time round AVERAGE property prices around the UK droppedby around 10% when adjusted for (relatively high) levels of inflation. In reality some areas lost very little (some even gained) whereas proerties in East London dropped by as much as 50%. Put it this way, if you have just bought a new-build property in an 'up-and-comming' area then you may be in trouble! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adren Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Ha ha. 2006: House prices only ever go up. There's never been a better time to buy! 2007: Actually what we said in 2006 was b0110x. But we are expecting a soft landing. Prices won't drop. No siree. There's never been a better time to buy! 2008: Actually what we said in 2007 was b0110x as well. But declines will only by about 10% at the most which is bugger all after the rises of the last 10 years*. Actually, OK it's not bugger all if you are the poor knut that believed what we said last year but hey ho. And with interest rates falling there's never been a better time to buy! 2009: Actually what we said in 2008 was also a pile of unmitigated b0ll0x. But decline this year will only be about 20% which is nothing if you think about it, especially if you bought in 1999. OK So everyone who bought after 2005 is up sh1t cr33k but what can you do. And the new cheaper prices mean houses are affordable again. There's never been a better time to buy! 2010: Well, OK everything we have said since 2006 has been b0ll0x and 10% of the population is contemplating taking their own lives because now they live in cardboard boxes next to the M1, broke, destitute and without hope. But with unemployment so high those carboard boxes could be made of gold! There's never been a better time to buy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted January 29, 2008 Author Share Posted January 29, 2008 There ya go then chaps. 3% right there already I'm sure GOM will come along and post his stages of denial for us. Personally, I think we are going to see 15% over 18 months then a protracted bear market for 7 or 8 years. Simply because that's how long it will take for banks to repair there balance sheets. I think next up is 'capitulation' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lepista Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 (edited) ....and then he predicted that house prices would drop but only by 10% Maybe he was talking per quarter? Edited January 29, 2008 by Lepista Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxD Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 There ya go then chaps. 3% right there already I'm sure GOM will come along and post his stages of denial for us. Personally, I think we are going to see 15% over 18 months then a protracted bear market for 7 or 8 years. Simply because that's how long it will take for banks to repair there balance sheets. You know what, they bought 3 properties together in 95 for 220k. This is the last of them, all 3 gone for 800k. Not bad 580k profit in 12 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 All these total W@NKERS now trying to tell us "it's only going to be 5/10%" -- TO$$ERS.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Places that had silly growth last year will have larger immediate drops because 2007 was basically all froth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted January 29, 2008 Author Share Posted January 29, 2008 Places that had silly growth last year will have larger immediate drops because 2007 was basically all froth. Belfast. I'm keen to see what happens here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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