All These Threads Are Making Me Sad

[nohpc]

Hey, you're right! Let's just keep printing money, live off debt, and keep HPI running at 15% a year. That sounds really healthy to me!

Did I say that?

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

In 1982 under Thatcher unemployment was over 3 million, the economy in the doldrums, but we had rising inflation.

Hence interest rates were:

1982 18 Jan 14.3125

19 Jan 14.2500

20 Jan 14.1250

21 Jan 14.0000

22 Jan 13.8750

22 Feb 13.8125

25 Feb 13.6250

10 Mar 13.2500

16 Apr 13.1250

19 Apr 13.0000

20 Apr 13.1250

8 Jun 12.6250

9 Jul 12.5000

12 Jul 12.2500

13 Jul 12.1250

21 Jul 12.0625

26 Jul 11.9375

28 Jul 11.8125

29 Jul 11.7500

30 Jul 11.6250

2 Aug 11.5625

4 Aug 11.5000

16 Aug 11.3750

17 Aug 11.2500

24 Aug 11.1250

25 Aug 11.0000

26 Aug 10.8750

Now that is worth thinking about.

Recessions followed by unemployment and inflation ( today it will be global inflation ) do not make a nice mix.

Doom mongering, no, realism, yes.

[laurejon]

Are you suggesting that Margarett Thatcher used interest rates to manage the economy, and despite giving the party bad press did the right thing in raising rates, so the the public didnt get themselves into the mess we are in today.

Sounds to me like the Tories are the party of home ownership, the party that will ensure hard working British Families can afford to put a roof over their heads, a roof of their own, independent of state handouts.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

Are you suggesting that Margarett Thatcher used interest rates to manage the economy, and despite giving the party bad press did the right thing in raising rates

Well she did not have much choice with her three year inflation problem, any Government would have been forced to do the same as they did regardless of political colour.

1982 8.6%

1981 11.9%

1980 18.0%

[laurejon]

Couldnt she have thrown out some of the inflationary products from the shopping basket, sold off everything, privatised everything, and borrowed trillions of pounds?.

She could also, disregard the trade deficit, and offshore British Jobs, or would that be too radical ?.

[homeless]

<janesaved> our finances are kindof up in the air at this moment but nothing at crisis level

<Katerina> I wonder if she misses irc.. lol

<Katerina> janesaved, you are not alone believe me.. many are going through that

<janesaved> i miss seeing her here because i dont get to see her irl as often as i used to

<janesaved> one day at a time, sweet Jesus

<Katerina> I had my house appraised friday cause I am selling it and the Appriaser told me that so far this year alone there are more forclosures then in the history of the usa

<janesaved> yep and most of them are gonna be in ohio

<Katerina> lol

<janesaved> we are not foreclosing but our house value has plummeted

<janesaved> and we are having trouble getting refinancing

<Katerina> well we are only through one quarter of the year. Imagine what's to come

<janesaved> and our payments have been jacked and will be jacked even more

<Katerina> bad neighborhood?

<Katerina> yup.. rolling interest rate

<janesaved> well thats a given but its mostly because so many ppl are walking out on their houses

<janesaved> if theyre not boarded up houses theyre for sale

<Katerina> well the mortgage companies are forcing people to do that

<janesaved> yeah we're one of the sub primers

<janesaved> i guess the state is supposed to be helping bail ppl out

<Katerina> my friend started out paying $525 and now pays $738

<janesaved> yeah we were paying 589 now we're paying 697

<Katerina> yes

<janesaved> and we live in the ghetto

<Katerina> and she was told that her payment will top at $972

<Katerina> time to sell

<janesaved> yeah lol so will mine probably by the end of the year if we dont get a re fi

<Katerina> and that will cost you

<Katerina> that's the game plan.. jack up the mortgage payment so you have to re fi

<Katerina> then they get 5,000 for the closing

<janesaved> well i guess ohio is about to start some high 6 to low 7 30 year mortgages for ppl like us

<Katerina> I hope you can too

<Katerina> I will never have another mortgage again

<janesaved> we'll never be able to sell

<Katerina> awww

<janesaved> yeah same here dean is the one who wanted to own, i was content to rent and keep my options open

<Katerina> renting will be big you'll see

<Katerina> more and more people will rent

<janesaved> we're so different he and i...hes a root planter and im a rollin stone

<Katerina> lol

<janesaved> yeah and for canton renting is bad because we need ppl to pay some property tax and get the burden off the rest of us

<Katerina> property taxes are rising

<janesaved> crime is out of control around here too

<Katerina> gas prices are going up

<Katerina> it will be here too

<Katerina> our Democratic govenor is taxing gas at the pumps now to add to the rising prices and he's building casino's

<Katerina> here in pennsylvania

<Katerina> casino's mean crime

<janesaved> i heard you guys got a new one in PA right over the border from ohio

<Katerina> yes and they are building one in Gettysburg

<Katerina> Gettysburg is sacred ground

<Katerina> now it'll be a dump

<janesaved> wonder what the theme will be

<Katerina> and there will be one beside Penn National Race Track

<Katerina> everyone elects him then they complain about him

<janesaved> we are thinking of waiting to re fi and having some work done to the house first

<janesaved> even tho we'll have to take out a loan to do it

<Katerina> sure

* tj_c0oL has quit IRC (Quit: akim!)

<janesaved> i hate going into debt...we need a car really bad too

<janesaved> and im credit phobic

<Katerina> well anyone who has anything is in debt

<janesaved> i know and i dont want nothin

<roofe> that dont make sense ...you are already over your head in debt and you want to borrow more ...

<janesaved> the problem is dean took a job far away and took a cut in pay..so now hes making less and spending a fortune in gas

<Katerina> wow

<Katerina> the mortgage company is raising the interest rate

<Katerina> re fi keeps the interest rate down but then you have to pay the closing

<Katerina> that's what they want

<janesaved> well all i can say is praise the Lord for my job because without wed be in a bad way

<Katerina> but what they are getting is people walking out on mortgages

<janesaved> im the breadwinner around here now

<MrDaw> my wife makes almost as much as i do

just thought i would post a convo from an irc chan i go in, ive been doing the usual hpc mantra in there for a couple years, but this is the first time i have seen this kinda convo going on.

[ChinaReader]

Are you completely oblivious to the fact the house price crash would occur in the setting of UK recession? Many priced out first time buyers will become unemployed priced out first time buyers. Instead of being able to stay in their nice rental properties they will have to move to worse areas just to survive.

Please tell me a scenario where a house price crash would occur in healthy economy?

The last HPC didn't result in majority unemployment did it? Some unemployment in a recession, yes, but not queues for the soup kitchens - at least not last time.

Maybe it's different this time.

[ChinaReader]

Sounds to me like the Tories are the party of home ownership, the party that will ensure hard working British Families can afford to put a roof over their heads, a roof of their own, independent of state handouts.

Sounds to me like you're wearing a Tory party lapel pin as you type, and you've got that out of the manifesto waffle.

Surname Cameron? Honoured to have you with us guv.

[Adam]

The goverment don't work for us, they are beholding to the central bank, and we all work for the owners of the BoE ultimately. It is irrelevant who is in power, until those in power reform the monetary system and bring control of money back to the government (us) where it belongs. They've even given control of the interest rates to the BoE now, sigh.

If its any consolation, this will all be irrelevant once the ice caps melt

[South Lorne]

Well she did not have much choice with her three year inflation problem, any Government would have been forced to do the same as they did regardless of political colour.

1982 8.6%

1981 11.9%

1980 18.0%

In the US the Prime rate charged by banks during these years reflected inflation as an issue there also .

1982 14.85%

1981 18.87%

1980 15.26%

US Discount rate was:

1982 11.01%

1981 13.42%

1980 11.77%

These were annual averages

[evictee]

Are you completely oblivious to the fact the house price crash would occur in the setting of UK recession? Many priced out first time buyers will become unemployed priced out first time buyers. Instead of being able to stay in their nice rental properties they will have to move to worse areas just to survive.

Please tell me a scenario where a house price crash would occur in healthy economy?

You've got this the wrong way round. The economy is already sick, a recession is the cure. Bring it on. The sooner we get it over and done with the better for everyone.

[South Lorne]

You've got this the wrong way round. The economy is already sick, a recession is the cure. Bring it on. The sooner we get it over and done with the better for everyone.

Agreed "the economy is sick", if the current young generation cannot afford housing or a family.

This government is trying to bring this nation to an end to satisfy their own greed for power. Talk about the extermination of the species or global warming!........New Labour will do nicely to finish us all off!

[laurejon]

In Tony Blairs younger days, he and his friends would rampage across the universities, smashing them up, would take to the streets and throw a few rocks and bottles at police if they wished to win a political solution.

What on earth has happened to the younger generation today, they appear to be lacking bolox, could it be that they deserve the politics they voted for ?.

Lets face it, the younger generation have been sold the Global Warming, Stop Seal Bashing, Save the Whale, from Birth.

[LargelyIgnorant]

You've got this the wrong way round. The economy is already sick, a recession is the cure. Bring it on. The sooner we get it over and done with the better for everyone.

Absolutely right. Noone's going to die of starvation and the economy will end up much healthier. Far cheaper house prices will allow UK subjects to compete in a globalised economy. As you say, Bring it on.

[labarte]

Anyone aware of any work by economists who have modelled what would have happened if the BoE had used rpi instead of cpi over the last few years? I expect we'd be in a much better situation.

[South Lorne]

In Tony Blairs younger days, he and his friends would rampage across the universities, smashing them up, would take to the streets and throw a few rocks and bottles at police if they wished to win a political solution.

What on earth has happened to the younger generation today, they appear to be lacking bolox, could it be that they deserve the politics they voted for ?.

Lets face it, the younger generation have been sold the Global Warming, Stop Seal Bashing, Save the Whale, from Birth.

When the trendy Blair went to 'Uni', it was free. Today most students are struggling to survive! When they leave they are saddled with debt and then have to think about a mortgage and a pension. I think Mr Blair and his henchmen have destroyed these elements of life for them, also

[ChinaReader]

In Tony Blairs younger days, he and his friends would rampage across the universities, smashing them up, would take to the streets and throw a few rocks and bottles at police if they wished to win a political solution.

What on earth has happened to the younger generation today, they appear to be lacking bolox, could it be that they deserve the politics they voted for ?.

Lets face it, the younger generation have been sold the Global Warming, Stop Seal Bashing, Save the Whale, from Birth.

Give it a rest! Who have we to thank for our education, our cultural upbringing, our understanding of society, and the provision of vast quantities of distractions and red herrings? Oh yeah, "you" lot.

No generation is solely responsible for any of the mess.

I blame the Tories and the Daily Mail readers. In the good old days they would've <rant, mumble, grumble,...>

[laurejon]

I blame the Guardianstan/Sun Reading Labour Supporters that voted in a war criminal who is responsible for the deaths of innocent women and children in Iraq, the same bunch of miscreants are responsible for decimating the education system for the young generations, heaping huge taxes on hard working british families, helping themselves to huge pensions, and bonus's. Allowing their wives to bring shame on the workings of the british democratic system............need I go on.

Thank god the Daily Mail print it like it is, along with the Daily Express.

[kagiso]

The last HPC didn't result in majority unemployment did it? Some unemployment in a recession, yes, but not queues for the soup kitchens - at least not last time.

Maybe it's different this time.

Made redundant from an engineering job in early 91 (if I remember correctly). Next full time salaried position was in 1998 (if I remeber correctly).

Between those dates I worked as a temporary part time teacher, did an MSc, spent six months on the dole in a converted chapel in Cumbria, went to work as a volunteer in Botswana for two years, and had three temporary contract jobs.

Why? Because through most of the nineties finding work was very difficult indeed.

I missed out on most of a decade's pension payments, and most of a decade's house ladder mortgage payments.

To catch up I have been saving minimum 25% of my income every month for the last ten years, while living in a fairly grim area, which has been a bit annoying.

Sold two houses in the last six months, so now sitting on my cashpile STRing, determined to get it right this time.

There was a dreadful recession last time, there will be a dreadful recession this time. Although housing stock is a relatively small part of total capital stock, the housing market has two very big effects on the economy.

Firstly in a boom the construction industry expands enormously, in a crash it drops dramatically. A lot of people who were flush become unemployed, withdrawing a lot of cash from the economy at short notice.

Secondly the housing boom in general, and MEWing in particular, provides a lot of additional growth. EAs, solicitors, furniture removal, DIY stores, carpet shops, curtain shops, etc. MEWing boosts almost all consumer expenditure, cars, holidays, clothes, etc. Again all this stops almost over night, and a lot of shopworkers lose their jobs.

(The only unreservedly joyful part of an HPC is seeing EAs being sacked, with such intolerably smug people it is impossible to feel sorry. At the steepest part of the crash, it is always fun to go in and pretend you want to buy something, at this point in the cycle they are actually meek and humble.)

I think the coming recession will be different in two ways.

On the bad side I think the BTLers will drive things down much faster, making the recession much deeper than last time.

On the good side, we are going in with relatively low unemployment, and relatively low interest rates (at least compared to the nineties), this means the BoE will be able to drop interest rates much more quickly, so at least the recession will not be so prolonged.

If you are not already, please try to get employment in a permanent job in a company that does not work in either the construction or retail sectors. Stay there with your head down until unemployment stops rising.

[laurejon]

On paper unemployment is low, however who is going to pay for the 40% of Public Service Workers when the work dries up in private industry, or do you think the Government still has room to borrow?.

The stark reality is that we are all tied up in a house of cards, when it tumbles no matter what hand you play you will tumble with it.

Its going to be a back to basics excercise, benefits will be withdrawn, you can forget the stories of people getting 2k per month in benefits, the country is going to be an economic wasteland. The British Public will be begging to join the Euro, and gagging for a European Government to take the reigns.

Maybe that is all part of the gameplan, who knows, will Blair be found in a years time heading up the new Government of the European Union?.

[Meditating Hamster]

I blame the Guardianstan/Sun Reading Labour Supporters that voted in a war criminal who is responsible for the deaths of innocent women and children in Iraq, the same bunch of miscreants are responsible for decimating the education system for the young generations, heaping huge taxes on hard working british families, helping themselves to huge pensions, and bonus's. Allowing their wives to bring shame on the workings of the british democratic system............need I go on.

Thank god the Daily Mail print it like it is, along with the Daily Express.

It does still disharten me that so many people voted back in a mass murderer (sounds harsh, but that is what it amounts to).

A collection of harsh facts for you if you want to get into government politics are.

a) The conservative squandered the north sea oil windfall they got.

Didn't the conservatives privatise our gas/electricity/rail/telecoms? If you believe this was a good thing, then you must also agree to New Labour privatising our post office/hospitals(by stealth)/schools(by stealth)/councils(by stealth) is also a good thing? Hmm?

c) They were involved in countless sleaze and corruption scandals.

d) They did nothing to eliminate cardboard city, a monument to our 'civilised society'

e) Started a war over some island that no one really cared about.

f) Maintained an archaic system of monarchy that live in luxury and get the best education and healthcare while half a mile domn the road, people were sleeping homeless and dying in gutters.

Before you carry on promoting your 'my party is holier than yours', would you please go out and buy a kilo of coffee beans, and eat them.

I havn't seen one newspaper that prints a balanced view of things. Every media owner gets something from a particular government party and therefore has a slant when presenting things to the public. Every party seems to have it's sleaze, corruption, bad judgement etc.. Each opposing party's supporting 'media' will be quick to jump on any mistake, and any benifit as having been 'proposed by their party years ago'. Every party that comes to power will say it either inherited a bad situation from the previous party, or that it's reason the countries coming out of a bad situation.

My advice to you would be to stop reading newspapers altogether, stop watching the news for a while, and get yourself educated about media brainwashing, neurolinguistical programming, manipulation tactics used throughout history. You wear your party like a 'club badge'.

[hopefulhousewife]

I think anything approaching a crash is a few years off. The system is propelled by propaganda, people living in fear of being priced out, and a mass belief that bricks and mortar are a good investment. Inheritance and MEW fuels it, as does fear of old age poverty (ironically), together with IO deals and 50 year mortgages etc. The show will run for a few more years yet until there is simply no more money left to spend. I posted this on another thread. We have a way to go yet folks until the games begin.

Err hello?

You evidently haven't realised yet, people don't have anymore money to spend - RIGHT NOW!

That's why the housing market has reached gridlock in many areas, and will in the majority of areas by the second half of this year.

Edited April 1, 2007 by hopefulhousewife

[Furby]

I particulalry like the old anarchist adage - "it doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets in"

F

[ChinaReader]

I blame the <snip rant> ...need I go on.

No-no, your opinion is perfectly clear.

Of course, the populace just woke up on election day and thought "well, the Tories have done an excellent job, really improved the country in every way imaginable; but let's be fair and give Labour a chance, for no particular reason".

Or was it more like "please, no more atrocious Tory government - who else might win? Ok, Labour it is then"??

Let's not pretend the Tories didn't deserve to (and need to) get voted out last time.

It's just a shame what filled the gap.

Thank god the Daily Mail print it like it is, along with the Daily Express.

Of course. Completely unbiased. Bastion of truth.

Maybe that is all part of the gameplan, who knows, will Blair be found in a years time heading up the new Government of the European Union?.

Yeah - because the Tories are anti-Europe

So much sarcasm - so little time.

[Meditating Hamster]

I particulalry like the old anarchist adage - "it doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets in"

F

I'll have to remember that one for when I'm in one of my really cynical moods.

Edited April 1, 2007 by Meditating Hamster