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About kagiso

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  1. With QE ended and IR's starting to edge upwards, unpayable government debts will change from economic issues to popular revolts. Time to dust off this thread I think: Italian capital flight confirmed for May https://www.capitalandconflict.com/end-of-europe/italian-capital-flight-confirmed-for-may/ The good news for Capital & Conflict readers is that I can speak German. The bad news is what I found in the German papers. There are no Gothic headlines to report just yet. But the Germans are perfectly aware of what’s going on. And they don’t like it...
  2. When something has gone on for decades, like the concentration of people in London, it is easy to imagine the trend is inevitable, and will continue forever. However, those of us with long memories will remember the 60's and 70's, when London was shrinking, as industry fled, and areas like the docklands and swathes of South London were urban wastelands similar to the industrial North. The Jubilee line extension was repeatedly postponed due to lack of demand. A couple of items that suggest to me that the depopulation is about to begin again. https://www.ft.com/content/86845750-b4
  3. Greece has public debt of 180% of GDP. This is because Greece was forced to convert private debt of French and German banks to public debt, an act of great wickedness. The IMF staff have long noted that this is unsustainable, and needs to be written off, it is a great dishonour to Christine Lagarde that she has ignored the views of her staffers to support the political and banking elite of Europe. The very, very interesting thing is that Greece has managed, by extraordinary efforts, to move their primary government budget (ie. ignoring debt payments) in to surplus; they have managed
  4. I appreciate this isn't London, but I think it is very, very relevant to the London hyper bubble: http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/investors-protest-hong-kong-over-11661261 Foreign investors have been investing in London property because they know that the UK has robust laws about private property and that, for example, they don't risk arbitrary confiscation by the state. What they haven't appreciated is that in an advanced state, robust laws about private property include fast effective bankruptcy laws. Once these investors realise that their 'deposits' on 'apartments' only give the
  5. ahhh....the difference an interest rate rise makes: http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-bonds-idUSL2N1540UK http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html Commodities...tick Shares...tick Emerging debt...tick Houses next
  6. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/02/dubai-debt-storm-clouds-gathering-150201075605951.html
  7. As QE winds down, and the commodities boom finally comes to an end, it seems like a good time to dust down this old thread. And Reinhart & Rogoff - a year and a half ago: And Reinhart & Rogoff - a year and a half ago: Greece, did of course default, but only got a partial write off. The EU refused to reduce debts below Italian levels for political reasons. This still left Greece in a debtor's prison, where they could not possibly pay off their debts. There is a point in all sovereign debt episodes where, if the lenders refuse to be reasonable, the problem morphs from the eco
  8. http://www.gizmag.com/london-skyline-skyscrapers-town-planning/31610/ Worth looking through the article. Given the absolute aversion of most brits to living in flats, the scale of these proposals suggests a London based housing bubble driven almost entirely by foreign investors.
  9. Well, it has taken four years for the commodities boom to end, in the meantime we have had defaults in Europe to keep us entertained. The tide is now going out on the developing countries - it will be interesting to see what they are wearing. It will also be intersting to see how much UK, US and euro banks lose in the carnage.
  10. Really?! I can only presume you have never actually read any AEP. Try reading the link below all the way through. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6630117/Greece-tests-the-limit-of-sovereign-debt-as-it-grinds-towards-slump.html It is AEP's prediction of a Greek default in Nov 2009. At the time a lot of commentators such as you treated him like a swivel eyed loon. There is not a word of it that is wrong. He predicted the whole sovereign debt crisis way before any other mainstream pundit. And also prompted me to start the soveriegn default watch thread: htt
  11. I thought this was interesting as I see Vietnam as a mini-me for China; all the problems described in the article are mirrored in China's economy: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9501953/Run-on-Vietnams-biggest-bank-highlights-threat-to-economy.html
  12. The detailed mechanisms for wealth and income distributions forming into power laws (Pareto distributions) can be easily explained as a consequence of payments to capital. This can be interest, dividends, etc as well as rent on land or housing. See 'Why Money Trickles Up' for the explanation: http://www.econodynamics.org/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/bullets.pdf'>http://www.econodynamics.org/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/bullets.pdf http://www.econodynamics.org/
  13. Looks like it is going to be official: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/greek-debt-deal-might-trigger-3-billion-of-default-swaps-under-isda-rules.html Somehow I don't think it is going to be good for anybody, especially not Spain or Italy. Even if Greece is a small economy, paying out the CDS's is going to take a lot of money, and with banks around the world already stressed this could push some over the edge. More importantly, like sub-prime mortgages, nobody ever expected this to happen, and nobody knows exactly which banks are at risk, nor for that matter which countries. We a
  14. The last crash started on exactly the day after double tax relief was ended for people buying houses together. I remember a wave of hysteria as people rushed to complete on time, two friends of mine actually paid and organised for their vendors furniture removal. This gave a final upward blip to the market. This was then followed by a completely dead market that precipitated the crash and didn't end for another eight years. The behaviour over the last few months looks exactly the same, the last few suckers who still believe in getting on to the bottom rung artificially bumping the market up.
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