hezzaa Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 So we have the news which bulls wanted and bears didnt? Or will bears just say it is all made up?! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6355979.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sala Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 13th Feb - Todays Inflation report at 2.7% Well that was no surprise! I think the latest inflation figure is way too low and should be around the 3.0% mark at least - plus we should be looking at another interest rate rise in march - im hoping for at least .5% to get inflation back on target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hezzaa Posted February 13, 2007 Author Share Posted February 13, 2007 (edited) So we have the news which bulls wanted and bears didnt? Or will bears just say it is all made up?!http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6355979.stm 'U.K. inflation slowed in January as prices fell the most on the month in four years, lessening the case for another interest-rate increase to cool the economy.' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Much better report with a breakdown. Edited February 13, 2007 by hezzaa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 So we have the news which bulls wanted and bears didnt? Or will bears just say it is all made up?!http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6355979.stm HPC Rule No.1: Bear news is accurate, honest and spot-on. Bull news is fabricated VI spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sign_of_the_times Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 still 0.7 over target interest rates up to 5.5% next month regardless oil nearer $50 per barrel in Jan, now $60 since feb, this "dip" will be short-lived Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hezzaa Posted February 13, 2007 Author Share Posted February 13, 2007 te name='Casual Observer' date='Feb 13 2007, 09:51 AM' post='551844'] HPC Rule No.1: Bear news is accurate, honest and spot-on. Bull news is fabricated VI spin. That did entertain me! You cant have any news being accurate without it being VI SPIN! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 still 0.7 over target interest rates up to 5.5% next month regardless oil nearer $50 per barrel in Jan, now $60 since feb, this "dip" will be short-lived Utility bills coming down. Plus last years utility bills coming out of the equation. A double whammy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 So we have the news which bulls wanted and bears didnt? Or will bears just say it is all made up?!http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6355979.stm The bears will be sobbing over this one. The frustration of it all! You're right, there will be a load of "my personal inflation is really 20% la la la" and "it's all lies" type angry stuff on here today. On the face of it, inflation is coming back under control. And with the last rate rise so recent, will it even have fed through yet? I.e. could inflation be about to be squashed hard down with the IRs we currently have? How long will it be until the talk of possible rate cuts by the commentators return I wonder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hezzaa Posted February 13, 2007 Author Share Posted February 13, 2007 still 0.7 over target interest rates up to 5.5% next month regardless oil nearer $50 per barrel in Jan, now $60 since feb, this "dip" will be short-lived You add up like my wife! $57.8 is not $60. Oil prices were $78 during the middle of last year so inflation will come down as long as oil doesnt spring back up. Wholesale gas at 50% of last years price so its all looking good for inflation/dammed VI spin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Well that has put the damper on wage negotiations, strange that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dog Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 So we have the news which bulls wanted and bears didnt? Or will bears just say it is all made up?!http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6355979.stm I'm a bear and I want low inflation. What concerns me though is that 2.7% is not the true rate of inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 How long will it be until the talk of possible rate cuts by the commentators return I wonder? Next IR cut not until late 2008 IMO. Slowly rising wage rises (3-4% pa) will improve affordability over the next 5 years, providing house prices don't rise, which I don't expect them to do. Hey presto, a soft landing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HousePriceLottery Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 My what short memories everyone has. Last months 3% was in large part self inflicted by the Chancellors one off tax increases. So to state that inflation is on its merry way down now is a bit of a leap isn't it. We've had this sort of reporting going on in the states for a while now, inflation has been on its way down from the second the Fed stopped raising the rates (if you believe the tripe on Bloomberg) yet it isn't and rates aren't on their way down. Quit obsessing over monthly stats, they mean nothing it's the trend that is important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Next IR cut not until late 2008 IMO.Slowly rising wage rises (3-4% pa) will improve affordability over the next 5 years, providing house prices don't rise, which I don't expect them to do. Hey presto, a soft landing. I think you could well be right. I was just thinking too, the graph on the front page is looking more and more like a soft landing every month. It won't be long before it's pretty close to the long term curve, at least the one taken "by eye". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Hmm, this IS geting interesting They need to increase money supply and inflation to lower living standards without the general population causing a riot I wonder how long they can keep this up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Quit obsessing over monthly stats, they mean nothing it's the trend that is important. You're so right. Take a look at the long term trend on the graph on the front page for example.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Levy process Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Hmm, this IS geting interestingThey need to increase money supply and inflation to lower living standards without the general population causing a riot I wonder how long they can keep this up? Ages, I reckon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talksalot81 Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 The major concern is that the figure is not calculated the same as it was last month. So the arbitrary figure (whose actual definition has changed) has gone down. From my scientific viewpoint, the number is meaningless. They need to use the same calculation each time otherwise the results are statistically useless! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 (edited) Utility bills coming down. Plus last years utility bills coming out of the equation.A double whammy. The utility Bills don't come in until March and next month's CPI is likely to see another close shave with 3.1%.I do not dispute the accuracy of the figures ,what I do dispute is the fairness of the MPC to shadow 2.0% as it is supposed to.The National Institute for Economic and Social Research does not see the target being achieved for the foreseeable future. At a time of fuel deflation and a strong pound, all importing low inflation ,it is a scandal if the CPI is still above 2% by the Summer,when all the deflationary effects have worked through.But by then the current wage round will have also worked through and no doubt we will still have the most shameful record on inflation of the entire developed world because of an MPC with a permanent Dove bias. Edited February 13, 2007 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lulu Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 The bears will be sobbing over this one. The frustration of it all! You're right, there will be a load of "my personal inflation is really 20% la la la" and "it's all lies" type angry stuff on here today. On the face of it, inflation is coming back under control. And with the last rate rise so recent, will it even have fed through yet? I.e. could inflation be about to be squashed hard down with the IRs we currently have? How long will it be until the talk of possible rate cuts by the commentators return I wonder? Well hooray!!!! Lets call for a cut in rates and then house prices can go up x million % in the next few months! To be honest all this pissing about quibbiling over small percentages (of both inflation and IR's) is arguably pointless as it does not remove the fact that houses are over priced and one day the "value" will drop. How this comes about I dont really care and I would prefer it to be sooner than later but whatever this country is screwed - how can we rely on an economy that seems to primarily revolve around people borrowing money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Well hooray!!!!Lets call for a cut in rates and then house prices can go up x million % in the next few months! Seems to me that the only people who talk about house price increases are the so-called Bears. Who else mentions them, in all honesty? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Objective Developer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 The bears will be sobbing over this one. The frustration of it all! You're right, there will be a load of "my personal inflation is really 20% la la la" and "it's all lies" type angry stuff on here today. On the face of it, inflation is coming back under control. And with the last rate rise so recent, will it even have fed through yet? I.e. could inflation be about to be squashed hard down with the IRs we currently have? How long will it be until the talk of possible rate cuts by the commentators return I wonder? I just don’t get it. Low inflation means low pay increases but high lending multiples – the ultimate workers trap. Basically, we have been hood-winked by flashing lights (on electronic products) and cheap flights. Bugger this, I think I’ll get in to a life of crime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Don't forget the weightings change in Jan, so this would have a bearing. If someone does some analysis that would be great, else i'll have a look tonight. Jan CPI: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpi0207.pdf Dec CPI: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpi0107.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 I just don’t get it.Low inflation means low pay increases but high lending multiples – the ultimate workers trap. Don't wish for high inflation. It does have its downsides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 I just don’t get it. Simple really - they are trying to lower your standard of living (through inflation/money supply) to bring us into line with the rest of the world - the aim being a global workforce... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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