hezzaa Posted February 13, 2007 Author Share Posted February 13, 2007 'Bulls' become Trolls as a matter of course, 'Bulls' appear are more evident in numbers now than at any time i've read this site.As stated on this thread not many 'bulls' on hear are predicting massive price increases. Bears still predict, however, massive price falls. They have to, there position is such that nothing else will suffice after coming so far down the road. I am one of many bulls who is not predicting massive price rises I just think stagnation will take us back into the long run direction. If the long run is 8% a year HPI which it was until 2003 then 3 years of little or no growth will significantly affect affordability in the positive. I would be more than happy for 5-10 years of stagnant prices as wages rise to make houses more affordability. Trouble with bears is they just want a crash so they can get on the ladder/make a killing and devil may care the consequences in terms of depression/unemployment etc. Depressions rarely have positive consequences for anybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 (edited) So, at the end of the day all these figures are laughable, inflation is around 15% and yes it has dropped from 25%! These low official inflation figures are there to keep IR (relatively) low and increase money supply - that's all - they serve no other purpose Real inflation is high and it's still hurting people - and it will continue until our standard of living is brought into line with the rest of the world It's all a matter of how the Govt/BOE handle the transition... Edited February 13, 2007 by dnd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hezzaa Posted February 13, 2007 Author Share Posted February 13, 2007 Quite obviously, you know nothing about trends.The trend is still up. One swallow does not a summer make. So you think the trend for inflation is up do you? Given all we know about the amount of inflation in the system last year and lower pressure in big areas now. Inflation and IR are linked strongly. If inflation falls in the trend then IR will follow at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 From the BBC article: The main cause of the fall was lower transport costs, while food prices also fell. However, many analysts expect the inflation rate to rise again soon. Lower transport costs...? Hmmm, cheaper rail fares? Nope. A cut in price for air travel or sea freight? Nope. Petrol hasn't come down that much in the last month or two to justify a 10% drop in the rate of inflation, in a single month surely? As for reduced gas and electricity costs, most of the suppliers have not yet cut their rates, so the effect will not be seen until after Q1 this year. So exactly what caused a 10% reduction in the rate of inflation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Next IR cut not until late 2008 IMO.Slowly rising wage rises (3-4% pa) will improve affordability over the next 5 years, providing house prices don't rise, which I don't expect them to do. Hey presto, a soft landing. Hey twit - rising wage rises = more inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 'Bulls' become Trolls as a matter of course, 'Bulls' appear are more evident in numbers now than at any time i've read this site.As stated on this thread not many 'bulls' on hear are predicting massive price increases. Bears still predict, however, massive price falls. They have to, there position is such that nothing else will suffice after coming so far down the road. But you've only been reading since August '06 and anytime there is a lot of bearish news you go and hide under your bridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuma Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Hey twit - rising wage rises = more inflation. no need to resort to name calling , it spoils the discussion for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Hey twit - rising wage rises = more inflation. No need for the insult, son. Wage rises of 3 to 4% won't cause high enough inflation to raise IRs beyond 5.5%. What's twittish about that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hezzaa Posted February 13, 2007 Author Share Posted February 13, 2007 no need to resort to name calling , it spoils the discussion for everyone. If wage rises take place in a moderate way then you can have low inflation and increased affordability. Wage demands have only go up slightly in 2007 from 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Te Mata Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 So you think the trend for inflation is up do you? Given all we know about the amount of inflation in the system last year and lower pressure in big areas now.Inflation and IR are linked strongly. If inflation falls in the trend then IR will follow at some point. It may turn into a new downward trend. As it stands the trend is still up. A trend encompasses more than the last two data points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 If wage rises take place in a moderate way then you can have low inflation and increased affordability. Wage demands have only go up slightly in 2007 from 2006 I'm glad someone can see it! A 4% wage increase is hardly like to warrant 8% IRs! Are we Twits for saying so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 But you've only been reading since August '06 and anytime there is a lot of bearish news you go and hide under your bridge Put him on your ignore list - I have... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Put him on your ignore list - I have... Stock up on Nytol, lads! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teddyboy Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 (edited) HPC Rule No.1:Bear news is accurate, honest and spot-on. Bull news is fabricated VI spin. RULE 1 Nu Labour are the most corrupt government that this country has even seen. I have never been so wary of a government as this one. They can spin like a spinning wheel. Is the figure fact?? Probably not, keep it low whilst wage negotiations are going on and then in April/May I bet it suddenly shoots up again??? TB Edited February 13, 2007 by teddyboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 (edited) RULE 1Nu Labour are the most corrupt government that this country has even seen. I have never been so wary of a government as this one. They can spin like a spinning wheel. Is the figure fact?? Probably not, keep it low whilst wage negotiations are going on and then in April/May I bet i suddenly shoots up again??? TB Worse than Lord Palmerstone's? Seriously, do you think there are no scrutiny audits on these kind of things, and that the opposition party wouldn't have uncovered any conspiracy, and made the government fall because of such impropriety? Edited February 13, 2007 by Casual Observer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 I am one of many bulls who is not predicting massive price rises I just think stagnation will take us back into the long run direction. If the long run is 8% a year HPI which it was until 2003 then 3 years of little or no growth will significantly affect affordability in the positive. I would be more than happy for 5-10 years of stagnant prices as wages rise to make houses more affordability.Trouble with bears is they just want a crash so they can get on the ladder/make a killing and devil may care the consequences in terms of depression/unemployment etc. Depressions rarely have positive consequences for anybody. A pretty Bearish outlook,ten years of stagnation;sure you are Bull?To be honest there are a lot of cash rich Bears who a long period of stagnation would suit just fine. A crash is bound to be the most desirable solution,however,if you are currently priced out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 It can't. It will stop. cool. do you deny that some areas have seen significant drops since 2004? so you disagree with the bE that prices will fallM not all, i think it is still possible to make mony from housing, but you would need balls the size of an elephant.. and to know exactly what to buy.. knowing where to buy will not protect you. its what and where and short term.. for example.. facy a nice two bed flat in portishead marina???? in exeter ????? in... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 cool.do you deny that some areas have seen significant drops since 2004? ... No idea about localised hot and cold spots. They have always been around, at the best and worst of times. But I do believe in the trends shown by the range of indices, i.e. that generally prices are still rising nationally. I'm not a conspiracist that thinks they all get together to fiddle the figures, or that the ONS fiddles the inflation figures. If true, these would all have been seriously exposed by now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 'Bulls' become Trolls as a matter of course, 'Bulls' appear are more evident in numbers now than at any time i've read this site.As stated on this thread not many 'bulls' on hear are predicting massive price increases. Bears still predict, however, massive price falls. They have to, there position is such that nothing else will suffice after coming so far down the road. Your English is appauling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 (edited) A pretty Bearish outlook,ten years of stagnation; Ah, good, I'm a Bear too then. I thought you had to predict a nominal 40% crash to be a Bear. In fact, on that benchmark, I don't think we have many Bulls on this forum, if any. Stand up the Bulls, and make yourselves known. Edited February 13, 2007 by Casual Observer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Your English is appauling. Irony, or poor spelling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Matador Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Weighting changes reflect changes to actual spending patterns. It would be wrong not to apply them IMO. No idea about localised hot and cold spots. They have always been around, at the best and worst of times.But I do believe in the trends shown by the range of indices, i.e. that generally prices are still rising nationally. I'm not a conspiracist that thinks they all get together to fiddle the figures, or that the ONS fiddles the inflation figures. If true, these would all have been seriously exposed by now Worse than Lord Palmerstone's? Seriously, do you think there are no scrutiny audits on these kind of things, and that the opposition party wouldn't have uncovered any conspiracy, and made the government fall because of such impropriety? You sound like a Nu Labour spin doctor. Ole! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 Ah, good, I'm a Bear too then. I thought you had to predict a nominal 40% crash to be a Bear.In fact, on that benchmark, I don't think we have many Bulls on this forum, if any. Stand up the Bulls, and make yourselves known. I agree your sentiment is Bearish,you predict 3% HPI for 2007(half of which has already clocked up in Jan according to the Halifax).We do seem to be stuck between the crash theorists and the soft landing theorists,where prices adjust gradually.I'm not sure about which is most likely,but either way it doesn't look good for BTL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 (edited) I agree your sentiment is Bearish,you predict 3% HPI for 2007(half of which has already clocked up in Jan according to the Halifax).We do seem to be stuck between the crash theorists and the soft landing theorists,where prices adjust gradually.I'm not sure about which is most likely,but either way it doesn't look good for BTL. Yes, the longer we see 8-10% YoY gains, the more chance of a sudden correction ('crash') or the longer the period of a gradual correction ('soft-landing') will need to be. So it's either property suddenly loses a large % of it's value, or it does not appreciate in value over an ever increasing period, a decade or more at the moment with 4% wage inflation. Neither outlook is particulalry bullish and both are a disaster for anyone in BTL for capital gains (which must be quite a large proportion of BTLers now). Edited February 13, 2007 by redalert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zag2me Posted February 13, 2007 Share Posted February 13, 2007 I'm still a bull That means I think prices will go up higher than inflation next year. But I do live just outside London and we get the ripple effect. Inflation will go down, interest rates will remain low, and people will borrow more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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