Realistbear Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 A.M. today: Another 1000+ added since yesterday: Search 257,585 properties for sale and rent from 5,169 estate agents P.M. today: Search 258,021 properties for sale and rent from 5,187 estate agents These numbers are picking up quite a bit and do point to the fact that there are plenty of properties available. The key is in the acceleration trend since 17th January when the doom and gloom news hit the tabloid press and the BBC. These are large numbers whether seasonal or not and it stands to reason that significant numbers are wanting out of the market in view of higher IR, perhaps pending insolvency and BTLers chucking their hand in due to 5 year record low yields and pending expense in connection with government legislation etc. IF you are a "Neither" or open Bull its definately bearish news. The EAs have been on about how tight supply is forcing prices up whereas the reality is that there are plenty opf houses available and thousands being added every day. These kinds of numbers could well be a record. Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents 17th Jan 07 Search 246,341 properties for sale and rent from 4,994 estate agents 18th January Search 246,693 properties for sale and rent from 5,010 estate agents 19th January Search 247,236 properties for sale and rent from 5,012 estate agents 20th January Search 248,243 properties for sale and rent from 5,012 estate agents 22nd January Search 249,925 properties for sale and rent from 5,061 estate agents 24th January Search 250,896 properties for sale and rent from 5,076 estate agents 25th January Search 252,993 properties for sale and rent from 5,108 estate agents 26th January Search 255,088 properties for sale and rent from 5,141 estate agents 27th January Search 256,582 properties for sale and rent 30th January Search 258,021 properties for sale and rent from 5,187 estate agents 1st February Could the extraordinary number of EAs that seem to grow along with the availability of property be a way for the VI to show that the real numbers are just new EAs signing on? I emailed FaP and they said they had signed up A new EA recently, not a couple of hundred or more of them. To sign up this many in a few days is not realistic. Grin and bear it--it looks like a rush for the exits folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 (edited) Search 258,672 properties for sale and rent from 5,193 estate agents Big bump in the last few minutes and also in the number of EAs--are they signing a dozen new EAs every few minutes? Very much doubt it. This is 2000 new properties in the last 24 hours. Edited February 1, 2007 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Just spoken to a local EA - indicated that they weren't doing any valuations at the moment. ie no new properties coming on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Just spoken to a local EA - indicated that they weren't doing any valuations at the moment. ie no new properties coming on Where on earth are these 2000 new listings in 24 hours coming from then? Must be just the SE and London? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Just spoken to a local EA - indicated that they weren't doing any valuations at the moment. ie no new properties coming on Speaking to estate agents should any be done while they are hooked up to a Polygraph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Speaking to estate agents should any be done while they are hooked up to a Polygraph. I work with a number of EAs in my professional capacity so they know it's pointless b*llsh*tt*ng me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Where on earth are these 2000 new listings in 24 hours coming from then? Must be just the SE and London? It's certainly not Warwickshire as I am checking Rightmove daily and very little is coming on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 I work with a number of EAs in my professional capacity so they know it's pointless b*llsh*tt*ng me What would you charge them with if they did ? Realistbear Posted Today, 05:14 PM Where on earth are these 2000 new listings in 24 hours coming from then? Must be just the SE and London? Well I can help you out here for my area. Two weeks back I foundmore than 100 properties found matching your search options. Save this search to receive automatic email updates. Today I now have more than 200 properties found matching your search options. Save this search to receive automatic email updates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shouter Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Where on earth are these 2000 new listings in 24 hours coming from then? Must be just the SE and London? No it's happening in Manchester as well. I live in a suburb about 7 miles from the city centre and the estate agents here are full of 'new instructions'. I'd say about 50% of their advertising space at present. They also have around 20% of 'stock' with 'reduced' labels. But these reductions are about £5K on a house previously priced at £185K - that would have changed hands for £90-100K 6 years ago. I have to admit that they seem to be pricing the properties even higher despite the influx of instructions. However I have been told 'off the record' by an EA acquaintance that the prices are pushed unreasonably high by the vendors! Apparently they want X amount to finance their dream overseas home &/or retirement and won't settle for 'reasonable' prices. Sounds like they are trying to pass the buck really - after all, who are the professionals? Perhaps it also reflects that they have overpaid and are in so much debt that they need to ensure they have little or no mortgage when they buy their next property, but a VI wouldn't admit to even more bearish theories would they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 Its just breached 259k: Search 259,023 properties for sale and rent from 5,196 estate agents If we are going to see 3000 new listings in 24 hours there is no doubt whatsoever that a rush is on. As the poster above says, its not just the SE but up North too! Our local rags here in the W Midlands are chockers with new listings and many appear to be typical BTL stuff with "no chain." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 1, 2007 Author Share Posted February 1, 2007 What would you charge them with if they did ? Well I can help you out here for my area. Two weeks back I found Today I now have Nice 100% rise in available properties in 14 days. Something big is happening. The herd are twitching and starting to jostle ready to break for the exits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sam Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Its just breached 259k:Search 259,023 properties for sale and rent from 5,196 estate agents If we are going to see 3000 new listings in 24 hours there is no doubt whatsoever that a rush is on. As the poster above says, its not just the SE but up North too! Our local rags here in the W Midlands are chockers with new listings and many appear to be typical BTL stuff with "no chain." RB i want the implication of your posts to be correct, BUT, i am going to remain a little scepital for a little while longer. I remember the excitement with the Hart thread, and that came to nothing. I do like a lot of yourself RB, but you do build things up far to quickly. I have seen a few signs myself that stuff is happening, it really could be it this time, but i am still holding back the bubbly for a while longer. Can anyone else give a reason why findaproperty might be getting so many propertys on their site apart from a rush to the exit, if not i then might start having a little more faith in RB's opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest d23 Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 (edited) Nice 100% rise in available properties in 14 days. Something big is happening. The herd are twitching and starting to jostle ready to break for the exits. i actually like your florid purple prose RB but find your hype and spin annoying i was looking through the haart reductions thread and found people getting equally excited over another EA's website and their figures, you more than most actually (surprise surprise) 1174 The pace quickens. Seems to be like a roller coaster, creaks its way to the top of the big dip, starts to gather a little momentum as the top is reached, then a quiet patch at the crest, then the clicking sound of the wheels begins to speed up as the vehicle starts its stomach turning ride to the bottom of the dip. I think we can just start to feel a little wind in our faces? 1250. The acceleration co-efficient for the level of reductions is reaching that point where panic will follow and all homes listed will be reduced and reductions will feed on reductions and we have lift off Houston! 1266.The rate at which house prices are being reduced leads me to the inescapable conclusion that we have a house price crash on our hands. this was 2 years ago RB, do we have a crash on our hands yet? I'm guessing you're going to mention the interest rate drop that was made a good few months after you made your comments but I didn't see the crash you mention happening in between your proclamation and then. crying wolf on weak data makes you look foolish RB and undermines any (occasionally) sensible input you have Edited February 1, 2007 by d23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seen It Before Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 Nice 100% rise in available properties in 14 days. Something big is happening. The herd are twitching and starting to jostle ready to break for the exits. Almost as remarkable as the various % rates of return on your diverse investment portfolio you are quoting this week, started at 15, then jumped to 22 and the last one on offer today was 24%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 A.M. today:Another 1000+ added since yesterday: Search 257,585 properties for sale and rent from 5,169 estate agents P.M. today: Search 258,021 properties for sale and rent from 5,187 estate agents These numbers are picking up quite a bit and do point to the fact that there are plenty of properties available. The key is in the acceleration trend since 17th January when the doom and gloom news hit the tabloid press and the BBC. These are large numbers whether seasonal or not and it stands to reason that significant numbers are wanting out of the market in view of higher IR, perhaps pending insolvency and BTLers chucking their hand in due to 5 year record low yields and pending expense in connection with government legislation etc. IF you are a "Neither" or open Bull its definately bearish news. The EAs have been on about how tight supply is forcing prices up whereas the reality is that there are plenty opf houses available and thousands being added every day. These kinds of numbers could well be a record. Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents 17th Jan 07 Search 246,341 properties for sale and rent from 4,994 estate agents 18th January Search 246,693 properties for sale and rent from 5,010 estate agents 19th January Search 247,236 properties for sale and rent from 5,012 estate agents 20th January Search 248,243 properties for sale and rent from 5,012 estate agents 22nd January Search 249,925 properties for sale and rent from 5,061 estate agents 24th January Search 250,896 properties for sale and rent from 5,076 estate agents 25th January Search 252,993 properties for sale and rent from 5,108 estate agents 26th January Search 255,088 properties for sale and rent from 5,141 estate agents 27th January Search 256,582 properties for sale and rent 30th January Search 258,021 properties for sale and rent from 5,187 estate agents 1st February Could the extraordinary number of EAs that seem to grow along with the availability of property be a way for the VI to show that the real numbers are just new EAs signing on? I emailed FaP and they said they had signed up A new EA recently, not a couple of hundred or more of them. To sign up this many in a few days is not realistic. Grin and bear it--it looks like a rush for the exits folks. This is desperate, desperate spin on your part RB. All those figures point to about 50 properties per estate agent. eg 245,319 / 4957 = 49.5 properties per EA 258,021 / 5,187 = 49.7 properties per EA. How do you know how many of these properties are listed with more than one EA? The data is MEANINGLESS as a guide to the rising/falling number of properties on sale in the UK market. Will you ditch this data if it shows a fall? What if 200 EAs decide to deregister from using the services of FaP? According to your logic that would imply there is a shortage of supply (and we know what that does to prices...) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 (edited) Almost as remarkable as the various % rates of return on your diverse investment portfolio you are quoting this week, started at 15, then jumped to 22 and the last one on offer today was 24%. Here's one of RB's posts from a year ago... The real return for my area is about 9% (4% on savings +5% on house price depreciation) as house prices in Stratford-upon-Avon district are down by about 5% for 2005 if Nationwide is to be believed. I personally see houses dropping more like 10% which gives me a real return of 14% assuming I am going to get back into the market at some stage.here's another from 1 year ago...Paper profits? You only realise gains when you SELL. Time to sell was in mid 2005 before the downturn began. The bulk of my STR funds have been earning over 4% (and rising as IR rise) and that cash is in my hands and not on paper. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry288020 here's another RB post from Jan2006... I think I am beginning the share this sentiment. I STR (job move) in 2003 and have been renting ever since. Didn't like it at first because I have been an OO since 1977. Now that I realise that "owning" is no different to renting as ownership is also conditional upon paying taxes, mortgage interest (dead money) and other bills in much the same way renting is. By renting I have greater flexibility and live in a much nicer house (as rents are stuck at market affordability levels) for the money and have much more discretionary income as the proceeds from the sale of my last house are paying 4.08% interest in short term cash accounts. Thus, I live virtually rent free in an expensive house and can save twice as much for the day when I might buy a home again. Bottom line: renting can be better than owning if you adjust your thinking. I'm sorry, i just can't help it.... I STR (job move) in late 2003 and am renting an upscale "boongalow" as it is called around here, for 750 a month. Market value about 350k. The proceeds of sale are safely tucked away in a savings account paying over 4% which are enough to pay my rent. Not only am I living effectively rent free but I am watching prices around here drop by about 10% last year (West Midlands) with every hope of another 10% this year unless there is a crash in which case there will be bargains galore. I have never been so well off not owning a depreciating house! .... ....... from 2 years ago... I received an unsolicited letter from my Brokerage Firm (Fidelity Investments--world's largest mutual fund company) simply stating that they did not recommend leveraging accounts to buy stocks. Normally, brokerage firms encourage the buying of stocks, even on "margin," because of commissions. This is the third warning that I have received on this point in as many months. A very senior Merrill Lynch advisor told me not to invest with his company but to keep cash. Warren Buffett was asked early last year what investments would be safe going ahead and said three came to mind: cash, cash and cash (I cannot find the link anymore).When the big VIs tell you to go to cash something is brewing and it is not further increases in house prices. The housing market will be the sacrifial lamb to placate the distortions in the economy. Higher interest rates will reduce the US deficit and correct the distortions in currency markets. That Realistbear.... he really loves those dollar bills... 24% returns on the STR fund...? MY @RSE... (just do a forum search under realistbear for posts over a year old and use cash as a keyword... you then find these old posts easily!) Edited February 1, 2007 by Without_a_Paddle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Popalot Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 It's always interesting to see which threads get the bulls really wound up - it is always the ones which get nearest to the hard facts of the coming HPC. Seriously, how else can you guys explain the flood of properties onto the market? Give RB a break. He is one of the lynchpins of this forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest d23 Posted February 1, 2007 Share Posted February 1, 2007 It's always interesting to see which threads get the bulls really wound up - it is always the ones which get nearest to the hard facts of the coming HPC. Seriously, how else can you guys explain the flood of properties onto the market? Give RB a break. He is one of the lynchpins of this forum. I agree RB is getting a bit of grief here and I (and others) have been fairly harsh; I also agree he is a lynchpin / mascot of this forum but he does seem to lose it quite frequently and talk a fair amount of unecassary hyped up b0llox. To be fair he has also referred to this thread as a bull / neither baiting one; which seems a touch childish and i'd imagine he would have a few harsh words to say if it was a 'bear baiting' thread. "It's always interesting to see which threads get the bulls really wound up - it is always the ones which get nearest to the hard facts of the coming HPC." i would have thought the ones that got the 'bulls' really wound up were ones that actually had some significance and for which they had no reasonable answer to Several people on this thread, bulls, bears and neithers have explained the 'Flood' of properties onto a website (not the market) and how it's not significant (yet). If you still fail to see it then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree There is a lot of bearish data out there and a lot of valid arguments; this is not one of them and imo it does RB no good to keep on resurecting it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 2, 2007 Share Posted February 2, 2007 I agree RB is getting a bit of grief here and I (and others) have been fairly harsh; I also agree he is a lynchpin / mascot of this forum but he does seem to lose it quite frequently and talk a fair amount of unecassary hyped up b0llox.To be fair he has also referred to this thread as a bull / neither baiting one; which seems a touch childish and i'd imagine he would have a few harsh words to say if it was a 'bear baiting' thread. "It's always interesting to see which threads get the bulls really wound up - it is always the ones which get nearest to the hard facts of the coming HPC." i would have thought the ones that got the 'bulls' really wound up were ones that actually had some significance and for which they had no reasonable answer to Several people on this thread, bulls, bears and neithers have explained the 'Flood' of properties onto a website (not the market) and how it's not significant (yet). If you still fail to see it then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree There is a lot of bearish data out there and a lot of valid arguments; this is not one of them and imo it does RB no good to keep on resurecting it Since when has the validity of an argument got in the way of RB? he'll spin any data to make it look bearish... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 2, 2007 Author Share Posted February 2, 2007 (edited) Here's one of RB's posts from a year ago... here's another from 1 year ago... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry288020 here's another RB post from Jan2006... I'm sorry, i just can't help it.... .... ....... from 2 years ago... That Realistbear.... he really loves those dollar bills... 24% returns on the STR fund...? MY @RSE... (just do a forum search under realistbear for posts over a year old and use cash as a keyword... you then find these old posts easily!) Any good investor has to chnage strategies to follow the market. Whilst I am not a day trader I do keep up with the financial news and place bets accordingly. For svereal months now I have felt it safe to be back in Diversified Stock funds that have performed extremely well: I recommended this one awhile back and it forms what I saw at the time as being the safest bet given the global imbalances and ongoing pressure on the dollar: http://www.oakmark.com/funds/single/sf_p.asp?fund_id=24 Fund Name Last 3 Months YTD (date) Oakmark Global 9.19% 24.18% My second largest investment is with this one with Fidelity: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundnet/S...mp;Symbol=FDIVX I year 22.6% Following Warren Buffet's advise I ploughed most of my US retirement funds into this one: http://finance.google.com/finance?q=FIUIX Up 30.52% with most of that return coming in the 2nd H after Warren sent buyers scurrying. For the best "tip" of 2006 go to the Investment section of HPC.com and click on "Black Gold." There you will find my tip on UKCoal which I invested in back in February 2006 at 1,41. I sold 80% of my stake recently for 4.11. Bet none of the "Neithers" or bulls saw that much return, even on a BTL with crashing yields? http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UKC.L&t=1y It is important to remember that last month's buy maybe this month's sell as investing conditions are treacherous as we saw last May-June when many thought we were going into a serious correction. But following the golden rule paid off: go away in May and return in the Fall. For cash investments I tend to stay with Money Market fund or short term bonds that returned about 5.05% since the 2nd H of 2006. Meanwhile, here is the latest from FaP: Search 259,616 properties for sale and rent from 5,203 estate agents It would be interesting if the "Neithers" and bulls have any investments or recommendations???? Bottom line here is that by investing conservatively and with a diversified portfolio you can easily beat property and more so now than ever given the direction of house prices. Edited February 2, 2007 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 2, 2007 Author Share Posted February 2, 2007 Since when has the validity of an argument got in the way of RB? he'll spin any data to make it look bearish... I just noticed that you are not a "Neither" or a Bull? Do you have a position on anything? Any recommendations or points of view on houses, the economy, if you have any investments at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 2, 2007 Author Share Posted February 2, 2007 (edited) This is desperate, desperate spin on your part RB.All those figures point to about 50 properties per estate agent. eg 245,319 / 4957 = 49.5 properties per EA 258,021 / 5,187 = 49.7 properties per EA. How do you know how many of these properties are listed with more than one EA? The data is MEANINGLESS as a guide to the rising/falling number of properties on sale in the UK market. Will you ditch this data if it shows a fall? What if 200 EAs decide to deregister from using the services of FaP? According to your logic that would imply there is a shortage of supply (and we know what that does to prices...) The number of EAs is obviously an error on FaP's part. I emailed them on this point and they said that they had added one major EA in the last couple of weeks. There was no explanation for the huge variances from hour to hour in the number of EAs as they were not signing 100 new EAs a day! Anyone know how many EAs are in the country? Perhaps not as many as FaP show? 5000+ seems a bit high to me. The point of this thread is about supply. The sheer numbers of properties coming to market. The addition of 3000 or so in a couple of days is clear evidence that 3000 new properties had come to market in a couple of days. That is, with just one listing site. It is not rocket science although it is bad news for bulls. If you are a stealth "Neither" you shouldn't worry about the coming flood as presumably you have no stake in the market? It will be interesting to see if the psychologically important 275k barrier is broken this week. Here is a thought: If, as you say, the properties are being listed with more than one agent what does that tell you? The first agent is not doing so well. I can recall trying to unload a property during the early stages of GC1 and decided to go with a 2nd agent after nothing happened with the first. Around here the multiple agency signs are starting to spread and that is a clear indication IMO that supply is building at the same time as demand is diminshing. People are priced out. Edited February 2, 2007 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 4, 2007 Author Share Posted February 4, 2007 Search 260,011 properties for sale and rent from 5,189 estate agents I think we can switch to a weekly review (much to the relief of the bulls and "neithers") from this point on as the numbers are growing too fast and big leaps add a little drama rather than the Chines torture method of a little at a time but non-stop. By way of review, here is the the data from 17 days ago: Search 245,319 properties for sale and rent from 4,957 estate agents 17th Jan 07 Quite a bump of 15,000 in just over 2 weeks. BTW, the number of EAs is to be ignored as FaP emailed to say that they had signed up a large EA about a week or so ago which may account for a few out of the 15,000 new listings. Their subscribers do not fluctuate by 100s each day. The bottom line: there is no shortage as the EAs like to claim. Better buy now or someone else will get it.............. How many by next Sunday? Will the important 275k barrier be smashed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Can anyone else give a reason why findaproperty might be getting so many propertys on their site apart from a rush to the exit, if not i then might start having a little more faith in RB's opinion Hi Sam. I'm afraid this thread is just the usual RBsh1t. If you check the FaP data, you will notice that the number of estate agents is growing at almost exactly the same rate as the number of properties. These are not new listings, they are simply new agents registering with FaP. In fact, the number of properties per agent is actually dropping slightly - not a bearish sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Without_a_Paddle Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 How many by next Sunday? Will the important 275k barrier be smashed? RB, please explain what is so important about the 275k 'barrier'? Why is 275k seen as a barrier? Who else is seeing 275k as a barrier? (besides you) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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