Converted Lurker Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 (edited) House prices up 5% in last quarter YoY, volume of sales up 37% YoY Residential UK house prices in England and Wales grew at a faster pace in the first three months of this year, with the number of sales up by over a third on a year ago, official figures showed on Tuesday. The Land Registry, a government agency which records details of all property transactions, said house prices rose 5.05 percent in January to March compared with the same period a year earlier. That was up from a 4.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005 and took the average house price in England and Wales to 192,745 pounds. The rise in house prices in the first three months of this year was less than half the 10.27 percent recorded in January-March 2005, while sales volumes were up more than 37 percent on the year. Surveys have shown house price inflation picking up since the Bank of England cut interest rates last August, although it is still a long way off the heady double-digit growth rates of two years ago when the property market was at its peak. http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...1914&cat=47-0-0 Edited May 9, 2006 by Converted Lurker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 This is not good news for me as a wannabe FTB, but can we finally see the end of this "but transactions are down" BS ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted May 8, 2006 Author Share Posted May 8, 2006 This is not good news for me as a wannabe FTB, but can we finally see the end of this "but transactions are down" BS ? There`s the old chestnut of the "data lag" argument..but quite frankly I`m stunned at this news. I`ve just done my usual trick of putting my own area in their comparison tool and sure enough my area is up significantly both in volumes and prices.... I did not expect this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 (edited) There`s the old chestnut of the "data lag" argument..but quite frankly I`m stunned at this news. I`ve just done my usual trick of putting my own area in their comparison tool and sure enough my area is up significantly both in volumes and prices.... I did not expect this... Check out this thread CL http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...33&hl=approvals This was all foretold in the tea leaves, or rather the mortgage approvals for house purchase excluding MEW and remortgaging. Demand is currently strong and rising, and consistent with double digit HPI in the coming few months. Sad and scary, but not surprising. Edited May 8, 2006 by wrongmove Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted May 8, 2006 Share Posted May 8, 2006 Sad and scary, but not surprising. I quite agree, this is of course purely driven by debt, the broad money supply has been rising 13.1% YoY in the UK. We may well be 'going Irish', I place us in a mid-1999 timeframe in comparison to the dotcom bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted May 9, 2006 Author Share Posted May 9, 2006 I quite agree, this is of course purely driven by debt, the broad money supply has been rising 13.1% YoY in the UK. We may well be 'going Irish', I place us in a mid-1999 timeframe in comparison to the dotcom bubble. Its the volume of sales that freaks me out, not nec. the prices. For all of the past twelve months it`s felt and looked to me as though the market had stalled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 This is bad, bad news. Can't someone spin it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairlocks Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 The tranaction volume up 37% YoY is on a low volume in Jan-Mar 2005 of 159116 which would make it around 218000 this time. Although not great but expected with the pre-christmas activity, where it goes from here will be more telling. (current signs don't look good) I still believe the fundamentals are wrong, so a correction will have to occur, but it will probably require higher interest rates to cause a crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teddyboy Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 (edited) Well I can only report Liverpool JAN-MAR 2006 Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flat/Maisonette Overall Region/Area Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales LIVERPOOL 255227 88 141475 308 89841 802 150147 206 120382 1404 JAN-MAR 2005 Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flat/Maisonette Overall Region/Area Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales LIVERPOOL 241418 92 128822 308 77610 961 144623 365 109651 1726 Its quite clear that the massive rise is in FLATS this accounts for 159 of the 322 sales rise. Terraced up 159 sales. So its only really FLATs and TERRACES. Is the FTB back? However, total sales were Q1 2006 = 1404 Q4 2005 = 2130 Q3 2005 = 2259 Q2 2005 = 2064 Q1 2005 = 1726 Q4 2004 = 2447 Q3 2004 = 2966 Q2 2004 = 2959 Q1 2004 = 2651 So I realise there will be a bit of lag but its actually quite low the volumes. Hmm - think this needs further investigation Right the house in Toxteth is going on the market for £1.2 million!!! TB This is bad, bad news. Can't someone spin it? THE BIGGER THEY ARE THE HARDER THEY FALL! Edited May 9, 2006 by teddyboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 THE BIGGER THEY ARE THE HARDER THEY FALL! That will do! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 (edited) I had more or less been expecting a figure like this, it's yet another kick in the teeth for FTBs like me. There's only so much I can say to myself "the higher they go, the harder they fall" without starting to feel really rather despondent, which is how I am at the moment. Edited May 9, 2006 by Warwickshire Lad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 How irritating. At least interest rates will presumably go up, which should nip similar rises in later quarters. I guess I'm not surprised. All annecdotal evidence I have is of ftb's who are willing to stretch to current prices because they are frightened of future rises and believe it's the best investment of their money. That makes it a seller's market. My brother and wife want to buy in Oxford, and his wife is convinced after watching Kirsty that they have to do it soon as prices will keep rising. They will do anything to get on the market. My friend who'se convinced there's a crash around the corner says he can only hold out one more year, and then his girlfriend won't acccept any further delays. He buys second hand clothes to save up for the deposit. My colleague just tried to buy a house in Oxford for 295 000. Once they had put in their offer, the house price went up to 300 000. I don't know to what extent the fundamentals underly the prices, but the fundamentals aren't changing much and people are blind to sacrifices and desperate to get on the market. The herd factor is as strong as ever, and there is no arbitrage in the market or ways of encouraging an early correction. Until house prices become truly unaffordable (rather than just painful) or there is some external shock it looks like they'll just keep on rising... It just beggars belief that people are willing to drive this market on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 fuel to the fire Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 (edited) The BBC house price page is updated: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/houses.stm Edit: So prices in the south east has fallen 0.14% over the last 6 months. In Hampshire prices have fallen 2.59% over the last 6 months. One of the main reasons is prices were subdued this time last year. Edited May 9, 2006 by Jason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 Not good news for perma bears. I think what the stats indicate is that there isn't the squeeze on EAs that bears think there is happening and money supply is still abundant. In other words no sign of the HPC yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nimmmm Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 (edited) I believe that this article is simply the Spring Bounce measured. Land Registry shows Annual Rate at 5% odd, which is down 50% on the previous year for the same period (10.2%), albeit that volumes were up. The Halfifax shows UK as a whole for Q1 2006 at 6.2%, down from 9.1% the year before. Nationwide shows Q1 2006 at 4.8%, down from 7%. At the end of the year, the figures were as follows: Land Registry 3.9%, Halifax 5.1%, Nationwide 2.4%. If these figures simply extrapolate for the rest of the year, we are looking at an average of inflation or less for the calendar year, or a drop in real terms. Chill people. Edited May 9, 2006 by nimmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sign_of_the_times Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 (edited) fuel to the fire wonder which property company has the express by the gonads ? I was expecting a big jump on last year, as with any suckers rally there's always a jump upwards. prices well down in my area (harrogate) which has brought out some buyers but will have to rise 10% this year just to get back where they were in 2004 (harrogate) Edited May 9, 2006 by sign_of_the_times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1st time renter Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 The BBC house price page is updated: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/houses.stm Edit: So prices in the south east has fallen 0.14% over the last 6 months. In Hampshire prices have fallen 2.59% over the last 6 months. Thank you for posting this link, what started as a 'bad news' morning for me, has turned out to be rather good news morning: Test Valley (Hampshire) -7.2%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erd Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 For south somerset: Q1 2004 173436 878 Q1 2005 193755 460 Q1 2006 184994 721 Recovery in the number of sales, but prices down 4.5%, although still up 6.6% over 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 Some very nice figures for my area! NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162 They are crashing harder than last Q when houses plunged by 7.8%! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StainlessSteelCat Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 (edited) OK now I'm confused. Check out Cardiff: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county13.stm The top bit reckons it has gone up by 4.6% yet the breakdown underneath reckons it has gone down by 0.9% in the last quarter. And Barking -2% in the last quarter! Edited May 9, 2006 by greencat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nimmmm Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 Some very nice figures for my area! NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162 They are crashing harder than last Q when houses plunged by 7.8%! Yeh, but that's only for detached houses RB, you spin meister. Stratford-On-Avon £240,614 -6.8% Last Quarter, -1.9% Annual - the overall picture - far more rosy! Birmingham took a pounding too last quarter: £148,835 -1.3% Last Quarter 7% Annual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 Interesting to see that Harrogate is +5.7% on the year. Is ImUpNorth going to get his own back today? I don't follow LR prices too close, I think the volume is what matters most. Incidentally my local area is up 4.9% on the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 Yeh, but that's only for detached houses RB, you spin meister. Stratford-On-Avon £240,614 -6.8% Last Quarter, -1.9% Annual - the overall picture - far more rosy! Birmingham took a pounding too last quarter: £148,835 -1.3% Last Quarter 7% Annual Yes, I am in the market for a detached house so use these as a bellweather! But what a nice drop at over 8%! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted May 9, 2006 Share Posted May 9, 2006 Look, all that has happened is that mortgage companies last (and this year) again relaxed their lending criteria - 10 to let, £1 million to let, parent guarantor, etc etc and the BOE obliged with a rate cut and hints of further cuts from "economists". All that has happened is that another £100Bn has been stuffed down UK PLC's Y fronts, well UK PLC is shipping abroad, it cannot and will not take any more of this, largely it cannot afford to attract staff to jobs bacause staff cannot afford to take the jobs at global rates (migrant workers excepted, as their ultimate purchase basket is in their home country). Vauxhall, Pru, NTL, Orange is just the latest batch - the genie is out of the bottle and rather than popping the cork back in the champagne bottle certain parties seem intent on smashing it on the sides of what remains of the manufacturing hulk of the UK until something breaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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