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House Price Crash Forum

Max Power

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About Max Power

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  1. i was speaking to a colleague who'se looking to buy in Islington: apparently she's having trouble with viewings because houses go so fast they're gone by the time she goes to see them, often gone in a matter of hours. I can't believe how house prices have defied trends for so long, and like many others face pressure to invest. A friend of mine told me he can hold up for another year, but then his girlfriend won't allow longer. He's desperate to see prices slip by then. It's a speculative market which means it must be a bubble, it's just so frustrating to see that it's propped up unlike ordin
  2. Bulls think prices will rise and bears don't, which is why on wall street there's a famous bronze bull: http://www.organfocus.com/deadprogrammer/w...street-bull.jpg Sometimes the bull is all bo**ocks
  3. Well, does anyone have any counter examples? I've no reason to trust the Halifacts numbers particularly, but is there anyone with a set of numbers showing a housing bust or recession for a country hosting the olympics? Or the host city prices rising whilst the country's went down?
  4. Barcelona, Sydney and Athens all saw house prices rise by more than 50% in the five years before the games. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4656927.stm 1992: Barcelona +131% (Spain +83%) 1996: Atlanta +19% (USA +13%) 2000: Sydney +50% (Australia +39%) 2004: Athens +63% (Greece +55%) Source: Halifax (Rises over the five years prior to the games) I see a trend.
  5. Been mulling over the Land Reg figures which seem to indicate that in the main, despite the stagnation in the market, there's enough buyers with the will and the money and wage expectations to keep the market alive. And then I remembered that we've got the Olympics coming for 2012. There'll be cash flowing into london for years before-hand, people coming here to build and work, it'll all be good. Except for house prices. The market looks like it's going to stagnate for a bit longer, and once the current low IR period draws to a close there'll be the Olympics to keep London, and by extension
  6. How irritating. At least interest rates will presumably go up, which should nip similar rises in later quarters. I guess I'm not surprised. All annecdotal evidence I have is of ftb's who are willing to stretch to current prices because they are frightened of future rises and believe it's the best investment of their money. That makes it a seller's market. My brother and wife want to buy in Oxford, and his wife is convinced after watching Kirsty that they have to do it soon as prices will keep rising. They will do anything to get on the market. My friend who'se convinced there's a crash arou
  7. Is there a difference in how the figures are seasonally adjusted?
  8. given past years more likely 10th or 11th.
  9. I wonder how much massaging that took? :-) Nominal falls set for next month?
  10. Well, the least we can do is sign in and recommend some of the more sensible posts, like: [VoiceofStratford], London- I've just bought my first home for £111,000. The previous owners bought it 3 years ago for £65,000 and they bought it two year prior to that for £40,000. Thats almost 200% rise in 5 years. What on earth can justify that rise? Our population hasn't doubled and half our housing stock hasn't be demolished. Homes are incredibly overpriced as a result of buy-to-letters. When the bottom drops out of that market it'll hit us all. [Peter_Sym], Nottingham RECOMMENDED Recommended by
  11. I'm a hearty bear. I'm making decent returns on shares, cranking out my maxi-ISAs each year, doing my best to ignore colleagues who got on the property ladder at an absurdly young age and live in huge amazing houses and drive fancy cars as soon as they come to market. I understand many of the arguments for a crash: housing purchase demand/prices are based greatly on speculative investment, one of the biggest signs of a bubble. House purchases have been funded by households vastly decreasing the amount they save and by cheap borrowing. Emerging markets can pin down interest rates only so long,
  12. Another interesting figure which may have a little less noise is the amount of money first time buyers are putting into the market . According to the report, once the weightings for 2006 are put in, FTB's are putting in less money in than any time since June 2004. Whereas there has been no change for former owner occupiers between december/january/feb. The FTB figures for Feb is slightly lower than Jan. Now I just need to figure out what the mix-adjustment weighting means... There's plenty more to say about these figures. A4: Mix-adjusted house price FTB Former Owner Occupier ...
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