IMupNorth Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Well, that Nationwide graph you all love so much on the home page is out of date again. The one on the Nationwide website is showing a lovely flat top, which just seems to keep extending. I thought you said that this was impossible - its two years now and still not a crash in sight. That trend line is getting much closely to prices line ..... perhaps its not going to crash ......... I think for the sake of credibility and honesty someone should update it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasket37 Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 whilst you are waiting perhaps you would care to peruse this thread which you seem to have conveniently ignored http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c=28986&hl=imup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
membrane Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 IUN seeing as you will read this how about an answer to the post a coule of days ago.......................................................................................................................................... "you all know who I'm talking about, the jerk who comes on here bear baiting, calling us all mentalists etc.. its funny he didn't want to comment on yesterdays Halifax HP index showing prices in his area (Harrogate) are down a whopping 9% YOY and strangely, he appears to have deleted his location of "nr Harrogate" from his profile (I'm sure the mods can back me up on this?) egg, face ??? " whilst you are waiting perhaps you would care to peruse this thread which you seem to have conveniently ignored http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c=28986&hl=imup Damn beat me to it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cupidstunt Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Well, that Nationwide graph you all love so much on the home page is out of date again. The one on the Nationwide website is showing a lovely flat top, which just seems to keep extending. It's not the only thing thats got a flat top - you must have - you've got no bleedin brains! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Darker Law Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 whilst you are waiting perhaps you would care to peruse this thread which you seem to have conveniently ignored http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c=28986&hl=imup I think you probably beat about 100 people to that! NDL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BandWagon Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 I think for the sake of credibility and honesty someone should update it. He does have a good point. This crash hasn't seen the sudden fall that we saw in the 80's. Worth keeping it updated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onionpie Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 He does have a good point. This crash hasn't seen the sudden fall that we saw in the 80's. Worth keeping it updated. The crash at the end of the 80s wasn't sudden IIRC - prices in the north were still rising a couple of years (1990/1) after they had topped out in the SE (1989). I believe the trend wasn't any clearer then than it is now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted May 2, 2006 Author Share Posted May 2, 2006 whilst you are waiting perhaps you would care to peruse this thread which you seem to have conveniently ignored http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...c=28986&hl=imup Will reply later - off to watch the matrix reloaded ......... I don't spend enough time glued to this thing to pick up all the garbage spouted on here. This one definitely needs a reply though !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onionpie Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Will reply later - off to watch the matrix reloaded ......... I don't spend enough time glued to this thing to pick up all the garbage spouted on here. This one definitely needs a reply though !!!! Try renting the DVD - unless you REALLY want to see the adverts. OOps, I forgot - renting is dead money, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Will reply later - off to watch the matrix reloaded ......... I don't spend enough time glued to this thing to pick up all the garbage spouted on here. You read it at least twice on the day that it was posted though. I happened to be reading it at the same time and noticed your name in the list of those reading the thread (and was anticipating some sort of reply, which never came). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winners and Losers Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 You read it at least twice on the day that it was posted though. I happened to be reading it at the same time and noticed your name in the list of those reading the thread (and was anticipating some sort of reply, which never came). I just love another HPC detective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Will reply later - off to watch the matrix reloaded ......... I don't spend enough time glued to this thing to pick up all the garbage spouted on here. This one definitely needs a reply though !!!! Hmm Matrix finished over 20 mins ago. IUN must be popping in soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Hmm Matrix finished over 20 mins ago. IUN must be popping in soon. Don't forget to allow him time to have a w@nk over Trinty (or maybe Neo if that's what floats his boat) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 Well, that Nationwide graph you all love so much on the home page is out of date again. The one on the Nationwide website is showing a lovely flat top, which just seems to keep extending. I thought you said that this was impossible - its two years now and still not a crash in sight. That trend line is getting much closely to prices line ..... perhaps its not going to crash ......... I think for the sake of credibility and honesty someone should update it. Yeah, update the graph to show the flat top...that will prove....errrrr.....well.......nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 The flat top looks very scary, it shows houses are a bad investment if your looking for capital gains, and prices for some reason are struggling to go higher, there bouncing against a ceiling level and cant get through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleBubbleTrouble Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 Well, that Nationwide graph you all love so much on the home page is out of date again. The one on the Nationwide website is showing a lovely flat top, which just seems to keep extending. I thought you said that this was impossible - its two years now and still not a crash in sight. That trend line is getting much closely to prices line ..... perhaps its not going to crash ......... I think for the sake of credibility and honesty someone should update it. What's your point, that it's a soft landing? Or do you seriously think prices will take off again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zag2me Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 His point is that there has been no house price crash yet, as predicted by everyone on this site 2 years ago. The graph appeared to show a peak, and now it shows a flat top, there is a big difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 Is he still having a w@nk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyShears Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 The flat top looks very scary, it shows houses are a bad investment if your looking for capital gains, and prices for some reason are struggling to go higher, there bouncing against a ceiling level and cant get through. That's my impression too. I think sentiment is still such that if the banks suddenly decided that 6x mortgages were affordable with 75% of income going on an IO mortgage being acceptable, and loosened credit still further, that prices would go up. Billy Shears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonewer Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 The flat top looks very scary, it shows houses are a bad investment if your looking for capital gains, and prices for some reason are struggling to go higher, there bouncing against a ceiling level and cant get through. No. they're bouncing against a ceiling level and cant get through. You see "there" is as in "over there" "their" is as in "it belongs to them" "They're" is an abbreviation for "They are" Why carnt the English teech there kids two speek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted May 3, 2006 Author Share Posted May 3, 2006 Hmm Matrix finished over 20 mins ago. IUN must be popping in soon. By popular request, I have returned to reply to this thread ..... in fact I think I am probably now getting popular acclaim for being roughly right about predicting a soft landing. Anyway, back to the point in hand. Having read SOTTs thread about Harrogate declining 9% and his 'in yer face' statement ..... well I mean, I discredited the guy on another thread where he tried the same thing. Unfortunately he misses out the facts that the rest of Yorkshire as a whole has gone up, as has most of the country and it looks like we have another boom kicking off in the South East. So having been made to look a complete berk, he tries it on in another thread. The guy is an imbecile, who chooses to ignore the whole data and finds a bit (Harrogate) that fits his chosen outcome. He also, imbecile like, tries to make out I 'used' to come from Harrogate. Now my own stance is that there is no point in trying to debate anything with imbeciles who don't have sufficient intelligence to fully understand the argument in the first place. SOTT falls into this camp I'm afraid. So I'll tend to ignore his posts. Even as a wind up merchant he's out of his depth, because I have been trained by experts in this - boy against man I'm afraid ....... Personally, and I can't prove this I don't believe Harrogate has dropped 9% in prices like for like ..... the only reason I have this opinion is that all the other previous posts of anecdotal evidence suggest prices are not dropping in Harrogate. I can only assume the price has dropped based on the mix of properties. I am more than happy to accept, if you insist, that Harrogate has dropped in price - but on the same basis you have to accept the entire bigger picture about house prices on a regional and national level still increasing slowly in price. Just to reiterate for the umpteenth time, I do not go around saying prices will rise rapidly forever - my stance is that prices are based on affordability at any particular time. At the moment houses are affordable for a lot of people, thats why prices remain at this level. Prices can and may fall, but it will need serious recession and or significantly higher IRs. Neither of these are on the horizon - hence my belief that house prices will roughly stagnate, they may go up a few % in line with wages, they may even drop a few %, but they won't crash anytime in the forseeable future. The most likely outcome is a continued soft landing with occasional upwards and perhaps downwards adjustments around a fairly flat mean level. And by the way, when it gets to midnight, don't expect me to rush back to the computer just so I can entertain you insomniacs ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleBubbleTrouble Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 His point is that there has been no house price crash yet, as predicted by everyone on this site 2 years ago. The graph appeared to show a peak, and now it shows a flat top, there is a big difference. It's a bit early to be calling a safe soft landing. Indeed most of the soft landing protagonists in the press haven't mentioned it of late... my stance is that prices are based on affordability at any particular time. At the moment houses are affordable for a lot of people, thats why prices remain at this level. Except for the people at the bottom of the ladder (those who can't get on) who happen to face the worst affordability levels ever. Do you seriously think this can continue without repercussions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 No soft landing around the West Midlands. ODPM says we are down 7% in my area (Wychavon district near Stratford). The only soft landing exists in the minds of VIs who report wishfully thinking "asking prices". With IR headed up, employment down, and confiodence sagging (Nationwide) the trend begun in 2005 should pick up nicely this summer. http://nationwide.co.uk/consumer_confidence/default.htm * The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index fell by 2 points to 93 in April, and is 14 points down on a year ago * Confidence in the Present Situation fell to a new low as consumers' concerns heightened * Confidence in the current employment situation and in future employment prospects fell to an all time low With the sheeple turning so negative there is not much prospect for a soft landing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 That's my impression too. I think sentiment is still such that if the banks suddenly decided that 6x mortgages were affordable with 75% of income going on an IO mortgage being acceptable, and loosened credit still further, that prices would go up. Billy Shears I don’t believe it matters now either way. The economy’s eating itself, no more money circulating around, just paying off the debts people have amassed . Retail’s struggling, shops closing around where I live. Industry tanked years ago. Less money being spent on commodities. Unemployment rising More redundancy’s to come Business closures increasing Economic climate change is here! (what a difference a year makes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geneer Posted May 3, 2006 Share Posted May 3, 2006 By popular request, I have returned to reply to this thread ..... in fact I think I am probably now getting popular acclaim for being roughly right about predicting a soft landing. /quote] Soft landing eh. With a flatlining graph, at least you will be right until your wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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