FrozenOut Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 ....recently and I think Marina said that the pound was holding up against most other currencies. Damn, you seen it sink this morning? even against the Euro it's taking a right pasting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Margret Thatcher Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) ....recently and I think Marina said that the pound was holding up against most other currencies. Damn, you seen it sink this morning? even against the Euro it's taking a right pasting! Live prices British Pound Exchange Rates Country Cur.Price Change %Chg GBP - USD 1.7355 -0.0071 -0.4% GBP - EUR 1.4447 -0.0061 -0.4% GBP - CAD 2.0348 -0.0027 -0.1% GBP - AUD 2.4655 -0.0015 -0.1% GBP - SGD 2.8131 -0.0130 -0.5% GBP - JPY 204.5200 -0.7200 -0.4% GBP - CHF 2.2739 -0.0067 -0.3% GBP - NOK 11.4784 -0.0529 -0.5% GBP - SEK 13.5930 -0.0060 0.0% GBP - HKD 13.4650 -0.0570 -0.4% GBP - BRL 3.8630 0.0134 0.3% GBP - CZK 41.4790 -0.0800 -0.2 Edited March 29, 2006 by Margret Thatcher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepwatching Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Is that inflation going up then ?? What can be done to stop this ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Yes, it is taking a savage battering okay. Funny when you think about it though. Previously when we have had parity with US IRs - the pound really has had a battering. Wonder what is different this time? (That is rhetorical) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Yes, it is taking a savage battering okay. Funny when you think about it though. Previously when we have had parity with US IRs - the pound really has had a battering. Wonder what is different this time? (That is rhetorical) ffs BOE raise interest rates. Historically UK IRs are rarely below us levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
befuddled Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 The move today is on the back of a hugely higher than expected current account deficit for Q4, -11bn. Expectation was more like -7bn. Has clearly focused attention on UK plc, especially in the wake of the 25bp from the fed yesterday. So not caused by higher inflation, no, but clearly any sustained tanking will cause inflationary pressure for an importing country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Oh what a surprise the US put up rates and talk about further rises, and guess what the £ starts losing value. I do find it amazing how this has been discussed many times over the last few months and numerous people dismissed it as rediculous, I guess you can't help some people. What will they do next? Oh raise interest rates theres an idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Guess it's time to get my recent savings out of sterling: I'd been hoping it would continue going up against the Canadian dollar for another week or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 ffs BOE raise interest rates. Historically UK IRs are rarely below us levels True - at least relatively recently. Worries me how everyone on here is convinced that nothing ever changes. Used to be 4 bucks to the pound you know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Worries me how everyone on here is convinced that nothing ever changes. Betting that historical trends will reassert themselves is much safer than betting that 'it's all different this time'. Used to be 4 bucks to the pound you know. And we had hard money and ran 25% of the world. I hate to tell you, but that's no longer the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Uk exports in 2005 were $483,700,000,000 Uk imports in 2005 were $347,200,000,000 Thats a gap of $136,500,000,000 A 1% drop on the value of the pound costs the economy an extra $1.3billion (or a millenium dome if you find numbers irrelevent) on our trade gap. The volume of the gap is growing as the North Sea runs dry (production shrinks 7% YOY). Over 2005 sterling fell about 11% vs the dollar (from ~1.94 to ~1.74), the fed is climbing, the BoE is stagnant, simple really. The UK is hemorrhaging capital through our high inflation imports, mainly fuel and energy. The Base Rate needs to start tracking the Fed, soon, very soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Betting that historical trends will reassert themselves is much safer than betting that 'it's all different this time'. I prefer to take note of what is going on at the moment, consider historical trends and make a judgement - not repeat a mantra. And we had hard money and ran 25% of the world. I hate to tell you, but that's no longer the case. Yes, my point exactly. Things change but you keep expecting the same things to keep happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepwatching Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 And we had hard money and ran 25% of the world. I hate to tell you, but that's no longer the case. WE... As in GREAT BRITAIN..... Not the sort of crap excuse for a country we now have the misfortune to bring our children up in.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 I prefer to take note of what is going on at the moment, consider historical trends and make a judgement - not repeat a mantra. And your judgement is? That the BoE can hold or reduce rates when pretty much every other country in the world is raising them, without trashing the pound? Things change but you keep expecting the same things to keep happening. What exactly has changed that would allow the BoE to ignore history? Or are they deliberately trying to destroy the value of the pound and thereby the standard of living in this country? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) Uk exports in 2005 were $483,700,000,000 Uk imports in 2005 were $347,200,000,000 Thats a gap of $136,500,000,000 A 1% drop on the value of the pound costs the economy an extra $1.3billion (or a millenium dome if you find numbers irrelevent) on our trade gap. The volume of the gap is growing as the North Sea runs dry (production shrinks 7% YOY). Over 2005 sterling fell about 11% vs the dollar (from ~1.94 to ~1.74) that's quite a drop - where is the inflation that caused?, the fed is climbing, the BoE is stagnant, simple really. The UK is hemorrhaging capital through our high inflation imports, mainly fuel and energy. The Base Rate needs to start tracking the Fed, soon, very soon. Of course it does - now put yourself in Gordon Brown's shoes. The progression from 3.5% base rates to 4.75% brought the housing market in London and the South East to a grinding halt. People stopped borrowing as much as they used to. Consumer spending slowed down. Everyone went 'AAAAAAAHHHHHHHH BOLLEAUX - we have to drop IRs again' So he did (For Gordon Brown - read BOE and vice versa - anyone who thinks the government has relinquished control of interest rates is simple.) And, like magic, the danger passed - at least for a while. He had a warning shot across the bows - he knows that our economy is so buggered that even reversing last Autumn's 0.25% fall is going to have a huge psychologica impact. He is going to watch the pound fall quite a lot before he acts. The 'battering' it is taking today is nothing. We could go down to 1.60 to 1.65 and the inflation effects will still be masked by the global deflationary pressures. It really is (at least to some extent) different this time. Edited March 29, 2006 by Marina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 "Its different this time" 4 most dangerous words in investment, classic quote from some financial guru, looks like he will be proved right again. Apart from a few blips over the last 50 years UK rates have always been 1% to 2% higher than US, lets just see what happens next or is it different this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 We could go down to 1.60 to 1.65 and the inflation effects will still be masked by the global deflationary pressures. Yes, we'll all stop buying oil, commodities, or anything manufactured using those commodities, and start buying cheap Chinese DVD players instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) Marina, responding inside a quote makes it difficult to quote you. What global deflationary pressures are you refering to? There's more economies competing for fewer resources. Are you refering to wages or prices? After all, the two are esentially opposite in effect. Edited March 29, 2006 by ?...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Peter Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Uk exports in 2005 were $483,700,000,000 Uk imports in 2005 were $347,200,000,000 Thats a gap of $136,500,000,000 I thought that we had a trade deficit, not surplus? Peter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoredTrainBuilder Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 The pound is doing nothing unusual today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 I thought that we had a trade deficit, not surplus? Peter. Yea sorry follow the links got em the wrong way around. CIA website Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 The pound is doing nothing unusual today. Exactly - the number of times I see feverish threads on here about the £ falling a 0.01% or so, but it's been up and down within a pretty narrow band for the last few months. I watch it closely because I have outgoings and incoming bills at my business, and my budget can go up or down significantly if there is a serious shift. It might fall badly at some point, so might the dollar, but so far today it's nothing worth bothering about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoredTrainBuilder Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) Exactly - the number of times I see feverish threads on here about the £ falling a 0.01% or so, but it's been up and down within a pretty narrow band for the last few months. I watch it closely because I have outgoings and incoming bills at my business, and my budget can go up or down significantly if there is a serious shift. It might fall badly at some point, so might the dollar, but so far today it's nothing worth bothering about. Premature ejaculation is messy, anti-social, unhygienic and ultimately unsatisfying. I'm told. I suggest therefore that moderators remove all such mess immediately unless sufficient stimulation and foreplay have taken place, say a 2% intra-day move, or 5% on the week. This should ensure great gratification and less mess. Edited March 29, 2006 by BoredTrainBuilder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphus Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 (edited) Uk exports in 2005 were $483,700,000,000 Uk imports in 2005 were $347,200,000,000 Thats a gap of $136,500,000,000 A 1% drop on the value of the pound costs the economy an extra $1.3billion (or a millenium dome if you find numbers irrelevent) on our trade gap. The volume of the gap is growing as the North Sea runs dry (production shrinks 7% YOY). Over 2005 sterling fell about 11% vs the dollar (from ~1.94 to ~1.74), the fed is climbing, the BoE is stagnant, simple really. The UK is hemorrhaging capital through our high inflation imports, mainly fuel and energy. The Base Rate needs to start tracking the Fed, soon, very soon. very dodgy CIA figures you quote there. Add up the total of EU component nation exports for 2005 and compare them to overall EU exports for 2004. Suppose these are the same people who give Bush his intelligence Edited March 29, 2006 by Sisyphus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magpie Posted March 29, 2006 Share Posted March 29, 2006 Over 2005 sterling fell about 11% vs the dollar (from ~1.94 to ~1.74), the fed is climbing, the BoE is stagnant, simple really. Bit of a slant on the statistics you're using here. $1.94 was about the furthest reach of the £/$ rate (I remember at the time the weakness of the dollar led many to predict it was going to fall to about $2.20 or so, which would have been a different problem). Prior to that it was in the $1.70-1.75 region, a year or so before that it was down in the $1.40s. That makes the figures you are quoting sound a bit more dramatic than they really are, I think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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