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Margret Thatcher

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About Margret Thatcher

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  1. Land reg for last quarter (July-Sep 2007) shows your county town (Warwick) up 7.5%
  2. You need to work it out as a ratio of the total number of properties for it to mean anything. So far its not done much over the last two months it has only increased 0.5%, that was until the last two days when it has spiked up a nearly 1%. That said its still only running at 8% reduced and historically that means prices are still rising. I have attached a graph.
  3. Nationwide predicted a 3% rise in 2006 and it ended up around 10%. So if they are 200% out again for this year then we will see hpi of 15-24%. It's just a guessing game really.
  4. I live in herts and monitor the market very closely and have not seen any evidence of a slowdown yet.
  5. Have you considered buying abroad? You could probably afford a nice detached house overlooking this "estate" and feel good about your lot everytime you look out the window.
  6. Not sure how +0.8% MOM and 6.7% YOY is a crash. Q1 crash has not happened, only an idiot could suggest otherwise.
  7. I believe a more reliable measure than findaproperty is the Haart website which has been tracked on HPC for over 2 years. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=550521 So far this year there hasn't been a dramatic increase in supply and currently they have 6.5% reduced compared to 8.5% at the same time in Feb 06. When we were in a stagnent/falling market in Feb 2005 the reductions were running at 12-14%. Historically Haart has been an accurate leading indicator so I would say there is no evidence of a slide in the south east and all signs point to HPI for the time being. Until we see reductions of 11+% we won't see HPI reversing in the southeast. I'm confident this will be reflected in the land registry figures for Jan and Feb assuming nothing has changed in Haarts reductions policy to drastically change these numbers. I've also been watching the St Albans area on rightmove for over a year, in my opinion the number of properties on the market is at a low and the speed at which they are selling is the fastest I've witnessed which re-enforces my confidence in Haarts numbers.
  8. Japan is probably a safer bet than the UK but it seems your investments largest exposure to Japan is as sensitive to events in China as the UK. Japanese stocks continued falling on Wednesday, still reeling from the impact of a sharp drop in Chinese shares a day earlier. The benchmark Nikkei 225 ended 515.80 points or 2.85% lower at 17,604.12. The benchmark TOPIX fell or 58.59 points, or 3.2% to 1,752.74.
  9. http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=62197 Meet the Bubble Bloggers: Patrick Killelea of Patrick.net Part 2: Patrick.net is among bubble blog leaders Wednesday, February 14, 2007 Inman News Editor's note: Talk of a real estate bubble, brewing for many years, has spawned an assortment of real estate blogs devoted to bubble talk and statistical analyses. These bubble sites offer a counterpoint to industry data and mainstream media coverage, and have gained a following among consumers and industry analysts alike. Several "bubble bloggers" -- some named and some choosing to remain anonymous -- have shared their views with Inman News. (Read the intro to this series, "The rise of real estate bubble blogs.") Name: Patrick Killelea Occupation: Engineer/programmer Blog site: http://patrick.net/wp/ Audience: About 5,000 readers per day Q: What makes you a real estate bubble believer, a bubble debunker, or bubble neutral? A: Owners and real estate businesses have a large vested interest in downplaying the bubble, no matter how real. Most renters are neutral, since they would probably rent anyway and don't really win or lose regardless of what happens to owners. But there is a small contingent of renters-by-choice who are adamant bubble believers and have made a big bet on it by renting. I'm one of them. Q: How do you define a housing bubble? A: Easy: when the monthly loss in interest, property tax, insurance and maintenance is larger than the monthly loss from renting, there is a housing bubble. Historically, it has been cheaper to own. That's how landlords can make a profit (duh). That's no longer the case in the San Francisco Bay Area. Since it's not only cheaper to rent now, but a whopping two to three times cheaper to rent the exact same thing than to own it, we clearly have the mother of all bubbles on our hands. Q: How does this definition fit (or not fit) the national housing market? Which regional or local housing markets have exhibited the most bubble characteristics? A: The national housing market does seem bubbly, but I don't know national average rents compared to owning. In the San Francisco Bay Area, where I live, it's clearly an extreme bubble. Other bubbly places now deflating are Boston, New York, Florida, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Places with no bubble are generally those away from the coasts, where house-price inflation did not really take hold. Q: Which bubbles burst? Which ones have deflated? Which ones are inflating? Which are about to pop? A: I would say Boston has certainly burst now, but may continue to decline for years. New York, not so much yet. Florida is bursting, as are Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Diego. The San Francisco Bay Area has declined only a little over the last year, but I think prices will continue downward for five years or more. Remember that prices fell for 14 years straight in Japan. So much for "real estate always goes up." I don't think there are any areas that are still inflating, especially now that there is a lot of attention in Washington focused on lending standards. The Bay Area is at very high risk for major declines. There was no reason for prices to double, so there is no reason they cannot fall right back down. Population actually declined, jobs went away, salaries went down and yet prices went up -- excellent illustration of a bubble. Q: Are there any common traits among the bubble markets? A: Yes, in general the bubble markets are more affluent and on the coasts. The feeling was that it must be safe to buy on the coasts because they are wealthier, but the reality is that buyers were not looking at very simple predictor ratios, like percentage of vacant houses, the ratio of salaries to house prices, the fraction of ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) loans that are about to adjust dramatically upward and so on. Even though the populations in these areas should know better, they are running purely on gut feeling and not on the numbers. The numbers are now overpowering gut feeling. Foreclosures are rising exponentially. Q: What is your best evidence for or against a housing bubble? A: I can rent a million-dollar house for a little over 2 percent per year, but I cannot borrow $1 million in cash for 2 percent. It would cost more like 6 percent to rent (i.e., borrow) $1 million in cash. This proves that buyers are overpaying for houses by about a factor of three in the Bay Area. And this does not even consider the property taxes, insurance, maintenance and broker fees. Q: Is it possible to accurately identify the existence of a bubble before it is gone? Explain. A: Of course. When prices are extremely high by every measure ever used, it's a bubble. Price to salary ratio, price taking inflation into account, price compared to renting, etc., (are) all very high. Q: How are bubbles born and how do they die? A: Low interest rates have a nonlinear effect. That is, when interest rates go down from 5 percent to 4 percent, prices increase 20 percent (one-fifth). When rates go down from 4 percent to 3 percent, prices increase 25 percent. When interest rates hit zero, anyone can borrow an infinite amount of money. Once these crazy loans affect the market prices, the bubble takes on momentum and prices rise for a while just because everyone expects them to keep rising. And then interest rates go up and it all runs in reverse. Q: Why do people get so fired up about the concept of a housing bubble? A: There is huge psychological tension around the massive amounts of money involved. Buyers want to believe they did the right thing and will believe it no matter what the numbers in front of their eyes are. Renters-by-choice also want to believe they did the right thing, but most renters don't give a hoot about the whole affair. Q: Will there ever be an explanation for bubbles that we can all agree upon? A: Sure, my explanation is correct. We should all agree on it. Q: Will there ever be a time when the discussion about bubbles goes away? Is this just a passing fancy? A: When all the local bubbles deflate, the discussion will go away. The reason the discussions happen is because there is cognitive dissonance between wanting to believe there is no bubble and knowing for a fact that there is. Q: What has motivated you to participate in the bubble discussion and what have you learned? A: The sheer irrationality of the loans and relentless spin on the part of Realtors motivated me to write the things I could not find in the mainstream press. Q: What has happened with traffic volume at your blog site as the U.S. housing market has slowed? A: It's consistently increased. See http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html#hitlog. The large decrease in the middle is when I started charging for the latest month of news links. Q: What is your background in real estate/economics? A: None. I'm an engineer doing programming at a large bank. I used to work at a brokerage. I guess I learned a lot from my work for financial institutions, but it wasn't formal training -- just simple math anyone can do.
  10. The most viewed thread on HPC is the Haart price reductions so there most be some value in it. Compare Jan 2007 reductions and growth in listing with Janauary 2006 and it dosn't shout HPC yet with 2% less reductions than last year when we had 10% HPI. Graph for 2007 Graph for 2006
  11. Actually the UK share of this fund has increased recently As of April 30 2006 Japan 18.2 United Kingdom 11.2 So investment Japan is down 17% and up 18% in the UK in 6 months RB Keep up
  12. I tipped them here in September 2004 when they were less than a £1 (closed today at £2.43), some think it unethical though. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p?showtopic=989
  13. Graph of Haart reductions this year since rate rise Graph for 2006 So 2007 not looking as good as 2006 so far..
  14. Yes schoolboy error, but been here so long can't be bothered to change it.
  15. Who do you believe? House price confidence hits a high Homebuyer confidence in rising house prices hit a 20-month high as the year ended, figures show. Yorkshire Bank says that in December, 71% of consumers believed property prices would continue to rise during 2007 - the highest level of confidence since April 2004. It compares with just 55% who believed hikes would continue when asked during the same period last year. http://www.guardian.co.uk/uklatest/story/0,,-6406682,00.html
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