Dreamcasting Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 3 minutes ago, nero120 said: He's also confusing HPI as a result of "inflation" when actually it's classic speculation driving increased asset prices as a result of the declining cost of credit. He's just clutching at whatever straw he can grab hold of, just like some of the other VIs/trolls on this forum. And to be honest, this crap has gone on so long that you can't really blame them! However, it doesn't change the fact that they will be dragged down to oblivion as they have tied themselves to the mast (physically and emotionally) of a rapidly sinking ship. See my other posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 (edited) 1 minute ago, Dreamcasting said: See my other posts. Sorry, just to be clear I wasn't calling you a VI/troll, I don't think you are. Just disagree with you on this issue. Edited April 25 by nero120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, nero120 said: He's also confusing HPI as a result of "inflation" when actually it's classic speculation driving increased asset prices as a result of the declining cost of credit. He's just clutching at whatever straw he can grab hold of, just like some of the other VIs/trolls on this forum. And to be honest, this crap has gone on so long that you can't really blame them! However, it doesn't change the fact that they will be dragged down to oblivion as they have tied themselves to the mast (physically and emotionally) of a rapidly sinking ship. As you say the crap has gone on for so long, folk just don't see anything other than for it to continue.... In the UK I came. to realise with the lack of for term fixes in this country you don;t even know what the price will ultimately be for the property you buy over 25/30 years because the cost of the borrowing will fluctuate.. In the last 20 years folk have benefitted from asset price inflation and reducing borrowing costs...lovely jubbly that's been... Now we have peak inflated asset prices, higher borrowing costs with potentially even higher poss into double digits over the loan term....your 500k house...well you will prob pay over the term what now 1 million...1.5 million and the kick in the trousers is your asset price goes serious south for what the next 10/15/20 years ? Not looking so great now from this starting point is it property in the UK ? Most folk never think along these lines though, they really know nothing about property or property finance or the wider economic landscape.... To be fair back in the boomers hey days...you bought a house with a repayment loan....the house rose in value and you paid down the mortgage...that's all you really needed to understand.... Where we are now with all the shennanigans the last 20 years, a first time buyer is grabbing a tiger by the tail as is anyone with serious heavy mortgage leverage..... In an inflationary environment it's going to be a sight to see real estate assets heading into a deflationary environment.....but its precisely the inflation that has upset the apple cart ending the pyramid scheme housing market... Seems to me this country has destroyed itself all to inflate a housing market to the moon, I don;t see much other than a bleak outlook for the UK, we're busted....and a few wrong steps away from getting a currency crisis at some point.....they'd better keep ahead of that game or else IR's will jump into double figures.....and then you will. get an instant housing crash better to manage a slow correction....and focus elsewhere rather than obsessing about making real estate the be all and end all of the UK....it's mostly pretty grubby real estate stock as well.....most of it way beyond when it should have been knocked down and rebuilt..... It's like the schools witht the aero bar concrete in them....or the houses built quickly out of concrete and such in a hurry after ww2...the planners and builders thought there would be a concerted replacment plan and strategy in the future....well that didn't happen.... 120 year old cottages with no foundations and basically shared party walls just a mess of bricks, bit of wood and some slate on the roof.....whats that in Richmond 900k ? In ww2 you didnt even need a direct hit...the blast from a bomb would knock these things down  Edited April 25 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 13 minutes ago, staintunerider said: Most folk never think along these lines though, they really know nothing about property or property finance or the wider economic landscape.... Is this opposed to all the financial "experts" on this forum who have consistently been wrong about most things, year upon year upon year? You do realise that if this forum represented a real company, it would have gone bust long ago, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 (edited) Just saw something yesterday in the rag(DM)on a coffee table in the finance section about some bank seeing green shoots in the UK real estate property market..... What the actual **** ? An overpriced pyramid scheme that the bankers want to continue to make money lending into ? Is this our economy ? Because if it is we are finished.... Personally i think they are seein g what they want to see and know as little about where we've been, how we got here and where we are at as a drunk boomer down the pub! A jacked up property market the last 20 years by every trick and then some, starts faltering on normalising rates and these jerks thing they see green shoots ? What the heck is a green shoot anyway in terms of property ? A sign that the market is going to go off on another upwards trajectory ? Really an overpriced property market built on props and low rates is going to go on and upwards in a time of normalising rates.... They are just debt pushers and addicts and their understanding would leave room on the back of a postage stamp....a lot of room Edited April 26 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 The only plants we are seeing in the property market around here is tumbleweed. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 (edited) On 25/04/2024 at 11:01, nero120 said: Sorry, just to be clear I wasn't calling you a VI/troll, I don't think you are. Just disagree with you on this issue. Maybe not Troll but I reckon definitely VI, in the city they call talking your own book or investment bias. It's not uncommon but it's a form of blinkers folk suffer including politically. Folk never want to face facts until facts stare them in the face...as General Melchet said in Blackadder, "a total unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through" The housing market has for the last 20 years or more been such a rigged game even the blip after 08 was quickly rigged again by doing the extraordinary that had never been done before that noone had dared to do, reduce borrowing to really or near zero. They went even more bonkers rather than let the madness abate.... The prices on houses today are out of this world compared with the fundamentals like salaries many of which are unchanged in 20 years....in number terms not even inflation adjusted.... It's clear the clowns in govt and the BoE are out of tricks to prop this up so it's just a matter of time how this plays out. The country for all this is a worse one to live in than in the early noughties as we exited the last housing slump.....but not for all....the working population and the young definitely not getting the best cards dealt to them in fact they are the ones propping all this up as tax mules...while the old and the boomers are on gravy street.... If i were 20/30 I'd stick 2 fingers up to this country but many have not learned enough to really understand the landscape.....they do kind of understand they are the disadvantaged but what they dont know is without the tax dollars from them and all the working poulation this country would collapse....Brexit mostly voted for by the old and boomers is another kick in the plums to snatch away the options on legging it out of the place.... I was always on the fence on Brexit if I'm honest because i dont like the out of control EU that has gotten way to big an powerful and full of unelected power hungry types but something i was always against was the old and retired boomers getting a say in the country's future that didnt belong to them. If they hadnt been able to vote then there would have been no brexit in truth....and there would have been no brexit if the power crazed loons in the Eu hadn't admitted all the Eastern European countries and Bliar hadn't thrown our doors open with no quota caps like m,ost other EU states had....oh and of course they all wanted to come here as the only English speaking country in Europe....what's the first language you learn after your own in this world ? ENGLISH...it's akin to latin back in Roman times...The real architects of Brexit were the EU themselves and Bliar.... And as i have said even if we get the worst crash in history its the young who have mortgaged themselves up to the eyeballs who will suffer and the rest of the heavily indebted and thats not the old mostly...they mostly have no debt on personal residences or rentals they own.....they will get away scot free in a crash alll they will lost is their bragging rights on the values.... What a country! But then we're only an illusion of a country anyway, just a vassal of our former colony is really who we are! Edited April 28 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 (edited) 17 minutes ago, staintunerider said: Maybe not Troll but I reckon definitely VI, in the city they call talking your own book or investment bias. Classic HPC forum. If someone holds a different opinion to you they are definitely a troll or have VI bias. This is despite no evidence whatsoever. Edited April 27 by Dreamcasting edit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 34 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: Classic HPC forum. If someone holds a different opinion to you they are definitely a troll or have VI bias. This is despite no evidence whatsoever. He also keeps harping on about how salaries are unchanged in nominal terms from decades ago, when actual hard data shows that on average of course they aren't. And he's blocked me because I have the temerity to say things that are demonstrably true but that he doesn't like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 I am still seeing deflation in the system albeit very small amounts. I notice that diesel has come down over the last week or so and generally a softness in prices. I am expecting another fall in the next CPI figure. Although I think it will be the wrong move this could put enough pressure on the BOE to make a cut in the base rate. Would it be possible they could make a symbolic 0.1% cut to keep certain groups happy and for political reasons? Would they be ridiculed for such a pathetic gesture? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 6 minutes ago, Flat Bear said: I am still seeing deflation in the system albeit very small amounts. I notice that diesel has come down over the last week or so and generally a softness in prices. I am expecting another fall in the next CPI figure. Although I think it will be the wrong move this could put enough pressure on the BOE to make a cut in the base rate. Would it be possible they could make a symbolic 0.1% cut to keep certain groups happy and for political reasons? Would they be ridiculed for such a pathetic gesture? The pressure following 22nd May will be extreme IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 36 minutes ago, Stewy said: The pressure following 22nd May will be extreme IMO. Britain Trump will be back running the show, mark my words. Telling us how great we are at everything and promising to win WWIII against the 'Axis of Evil'.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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