Ireland housing crisis

[Sackboii]

I was over in Ireland for a few days this week and the topic amongst many of the locals is the housing crisis. Not exactly the same circumstances as some of the other threads here about issues in other countries, but the theme is a common one. Houses are too expensive because there are not enough of them and people can no longer afford them.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/06/irelands-housing-crisis-millennials-a-generation-sacrificed

In recent years, Ireland has seen a continued trend in emigration: young graduates and working millennials are leaving the Emerald Isle for greener pastures. But this time they are leaving on account of a housing crisis exacerbated by inflation, which is destroying their future prospects

The housing crisis in Ireland has worsened since the economic crash of 2008. 

Despite near-full employment, homelessness is at an all-time high, exceeding the figures recorded during the Great Hunger (Irish Famine) in the mid-19th century.

[Jinxed]

They should put this man in charge. 

Filmed in 2010. I completely agree with everything this chap says. Unfortunately our MSM are as bent as a nine bob note, and told everyone over the last twenty years, that millions of middle income earners have been priced out of housing, 'because they didnt build enough houses' instead of the real reasons which this gentleman kindly points out for us.

Quote

"I’m disgusted, as you can appreciate, growing up in that country and seeing what’s happened to it," Ryan told CBC. He said members of his  family back in Ireland are deeply suffering, he stated, "all because of the stupidity and greed of a few people, particularly the bankers,"

But he says he won’t do any more media. “I won’t do any more interviews,” he told CBC. “I don’t mean to be a pompous son of a gun, but I’m not an economist, and I’ve made my statement.”

 

[Sackboii]

LOL.

Not seen that before. Is it a send-up ? Or real ?

Either way, totally agree too.

[hurlerontheditch]

It is a mess.

 

I was there twice last month seeing family. Prices are insane, and agents obnoxious when I called to enquire.

[Sackboii]

14 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

It is a mess.

Most were seriously concerned about the population growth in recent times. I think one mentioned 3.5m to over 5m people in 20 odd years.

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Sackboii

[captainb]

4 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

Most were seriously concerned about the population growth in recent times. I think one mentioned 3.5m to over 5m people in 20 odd years.

 

Think more like 4 to 5m. Still 25% 

Doesn't matter though apparently demand for housing has no impact on its price 

[Sackboii]

12 minutes ago, captainb said:

Doesn't matter though apparently demand for housing has no impact on its price 

Not sure about that, didn't Ireland have practically zero interest rates for 15 years too ?

Edit: Indeed it did..

Edited August 11, 2023 by Sackboii

[captainb]

5 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

Not sure about that, didn't Ireland have practically zero interest rates for 15 years too ?

Edit: Indeed it did..

Indeed although if demand was irrelevant you would expect prices to be collapsing now, rather than agents being booked up round the clock 

[Sackboii]

1 minute ago, captainb said:

Indeed although if demand was irrelevant you would expect prices to be collapsing now, rather than agents being booked up round the clock 

Fair point. Are you saying prices in Ireland are not falling like they are here in the UK because demand is still huge ? Or are sellers even more stubborn than here in the UK and are still thinking prices only go up ?

[captainb]

4 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

Fair point. Are you saying prices in Ireland are not falling like they are here in the UK because demand is still huge ? Or are sellers even more stubborn than here in the UK and are still thinking prices only go up ?

I'm saying price of housing is both a function of credit and demand for it.

Both have little relevance without the other. 

Prices have not collapsed here or in Ireland (we are still above pre pandemic levels) despite rates going from 0.5 to 5.25 as demand is so high. If there wasn't the demand people would rent over buying in these circumstances however the demand has allowed landlords/HMO Barron's etc to simply up the prices for new let's and rebase the market.

 

Still if you want to buy where there is no demand, some northern towns properties are still available for less than sum of the bricks involved. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by captainb

[Sackboii]

3 minutes ago, captainb said:

Prices have not collapsed here or in Ireland (we are still above pre pandemic levels) despite rates going from 0.5 to 5.25 as demand is so high

I think prices haven't 'collapsed' in the UK because the general masses still refuse to believe there's a problem. Demand may be less to do with it than first meets the eye. As far as I see there is almost no demand in the UK at current prices/interest rates. There have been a large number of properties entering the market over the past 3+ months and there is a HUGE number being added daily right now compared to past years in my search areas.

The fact is that practically nothing is selling now or for the last 6 months.

Even ones I am not personally interested in, that 'sold' months ago, I am seeing re-enter the market some months later at reduced prices because obviously it fell through. This never happened on this scale in the last 15 years.

There is no doubt that prices are falling in the UK (I agree it may not yet be enough to be considered a 'collapse'). I have no doubt this will continue until, in typical Dutch Auction fashion, the right price for a particular property is found to make it actually sell.

I am trying to gauge if Ireland is in the same boat or is lagging behind.

[captainb]

10 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

I think prices haven't 'collapsed' in the UK because the general masses still refuse to believe there's a problem. Demand may be less to do with it than first meets the eye. As far as I see there is almost no demand in the UK at current prices/interest rates. There have been a large number of properties entering the market over the past 3+ months and there is a HUGE number being added daily right now compared to past years in my search areas.

The fact is that practically nothing is selling now or for the last 6 months.

Even ones I am not personally interested in, that 'sold' months ago, I am seeing re-enter the market some months later at reduced prices because obviously it fell through. This never happened on this scale in the last 15 years.

There is no doubt that prices are falling in the UK (I agree it may not yet be enough to be considered a 'collapse'). I have no doubt this will continue until, in typical Dutch Auction fashion, the right price for a particular property is found to make it actually sell.

I am trying to gauge if Ireland is in the same boat or is lagging behind.

I agree and I think prices will fall further over the next year or 2. 

Personally id guage around 10% or so further.

And the reason not 30% etc is the demand. Rent prices which follow far quicker have gone crazy in London (and Dublin from what I hear).

If someone is paying 2.5k a month on a flat in rent there's price support there at quite a high level. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by captainb

[Insane]

15 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

I think prices haven't 'collapsed' in the UK because the general masses still refuse to believe there's a problem. Demand may be less to do with it than first meets the eye. As far as I see there is almost no demand in the UK at current prices/interest rates. There have been a large number of properties entering the market over the past 3+ months and there is a HUGE number being added daily right now compared to past years in my search areas.

But there are two prices. The price to buy a property and a price to buy time in a property i.e. renting. As the price to buy has stopped people buying they have switched to buying time renting , the price to rent is rising fast. 

18 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

There is no doubt that prices are falling in the UK (I agree it may not yet be enough to be considered a 'collapse'). I have no doubt this will continue until, in typical Dutch Auction fashion, the right price for a particular property is found to make it actually sell.

The right price will find itself in time whether it be to buy or buy time. 

20 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

I am trying to gauge if Ireland is in the same boat or is lagging behind.

It has often been said that what happens in America then happens in the UK. Maybe where property is concerned we should be looking at what is happening in Ireland to judge where the UK will be property wise in the future. I think Ireland are ahead of the UK when it comes to housing their shortage is more acute than ours while their population pro rata is increasing faster than ours. I with we are lagging Ireland.

[Sackboii]

5 minutes ago, Insane said:

we are lagging Ireland.

Quite plausible.

So, anyone know what's happening to prices/sales(/lack thereof) in Ireland ?

[Insane]

Just now, Sackboii said:

So, anyone know what's happening to prices/sales(/lack thereof) in Ireland ?

I have watched a few youtube vids on the Irish Housing Crisis. Cannot remember which ones as it was a while back but if you pop on there you will find plenty. Again cannot remember the actual numbers but one guy gave out the figures for the number of houses up for rent they were almost non existent. 

[Sackboii]

10 minutes ago, Insane said:

I have watched a few youtube vids on the Irish Housing Crisis. Cannot remember which ones as it was a while back but if you pop on there you will find plenty. Again cannot remember the actual numbers but one guy gave out the figures for the number of houses up for rent they were almost non existent. 

Yes, many days/weeks worth of material on Youtube about Ireland's housing..

[hurlerontheditch]

32 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

Quite plausible.

So, anyone know what's happening to prices/sales(/lack thereof) in Ireland ?

well priced properties are selling. ones which are kite flying are not. Its regional too. Houses prices around Dublin are a lot higher than the west

[Sackboii]

18 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

well priced properties are selling. ones which are kite flying are not.

So for clarity, is a currently ‘well priced’ property priced lower than it was say during or towards the end of the pandemic ?

[hurlerontheditch]

3 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

So for clarity, is a currently ‘well priced’ property priced lower than it was say during or towards the end of the pandemic ?

for example i saw a house for sale which looked under priced. i enquired and they have an offer 15% in excess. this price is inexcess of pre pandemic. 

[Sour Mash]

No problem - Ireland is supposedly one of the richest countries in the World so no trouble for the public to afford high house prices  ... and the Irish government seems to think that there should be no limits on anyone flooding into the country, so there are no pre-existing issues with lack of existing housing either, clearly. 🤣

🤡

If the Irish electorate keep voting for a bunch of crooked globalist chumps to run the country, they have only themselves to blame frankly.

[MARTINX9]

1 hour ago, Sour Mash said:

No problem - Ireland is supposedly one of the richest countries in the World so no trouble for the public to afford high house prices  ... and the Irish government seems to think that there should be no limits on anyone flooding into the country, so there are no pre-existing issues with lack of existing housing either, clearly. 🤣

🤡

If the Irish electorate keep voting for a bunch of crooked globalist chumps to run the country, they have only themselves to blame frankly.

There is a new Farmers party being created similar to the one in the Netherlands. Rural areas and small towns are being forced to deal with the consequences of disastrous policies thought up by politicians who live in leafy south Dublin. But it looks like on current polling Irish voters will vote for more of the same again.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2023/0809/1398973-farming-party-survey/

The current Irish government certainly has a strong case for being considered the worst government in the history of the Irish state. And there is still two years left before the election - although it looks like the same FG/FF/Green shower could end up back in power again to keep Sinn - Brits out everyone else in - Fein.

Housing isn’t the only disaster - the health service is falling apart and the infrastructure especially in terms of public transport is woeful. Where does all the money go given Ireland’s supposed GDP wealth?!

Edited August 11, 2023 by MARTINX9

[captainb]

26 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

There is a new Farmers party being created similar to the one in the Netherlands. Rural areas and small towns are being forced to deal with the consequences of disastrous policies thought up by politicians who live in leafy south Dublin. But it looks like on current polling Irish voters will vote for more of the same again.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2023/0809/1398973-farming-party-survey/

The current Irish government certainly has a strong case for being considered the worst government in the history of the Irish state. And there is still two years left before the election - although it looks like the same FG/FF/Green shower could end up back in power again to keep Sinn - Brits out everyone else in - Fein.

Housing isn’t the only disaster - the health service is falling apart and the infrastructure especially in terms of public transport is woeful. Where does all the money go given Ireland’s supposed GDP wealth?!

We all know that's fictional GDP just on profit allocation by multinationals...

Irish employees don't actually generate all European value nor are remunerated for Pfizer, apple etc but the books say they do.

Not sure what the "real" Irish GDP per capita is, but at a guess would be close to the French/German levels rather than swiss.

 

Fav impact was the 25% Irish GDP growth in 2015... Which is war rebound impressive... In reality Apple just restructured their Irish Sub to hold more IP.

Edited August 11, 2023 by captainb

[Trampa501]

What's (wage) inflation like in Ireland?. If it's like here, then house prices can remain high.

[iamnumerate]

4 hours ago, captainb said:

I'm saying price of housing is both a function of credit and demand for it.

Both have little relevance without the other. 

Prices have not collapsed here or in Ireland (we are still above pre pandemic levels) despite rates going from 0.5 to 5.25 as demand is so high. If there wasn't the demand people would rent over buying in these circumstances however the demand has allowed landlords/HMO Barron's etc to simply up the prices for new let's and rebase the market.

 

Still if you want to buy where there is no demand, some northern towns properties are still available for less than sum of the bricks involved. 

+1

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Prices seem to be falling everywhere, after heavy rises over the last few years. Including in Dublin. 

Immigration is heavier than ever I can remember - much higher than the UK, which inevitably puts pressure on housing - from all over - very international. In my grandfather's town there is no butcher other than E European now - which goes to show how much things have shifted. 

Health service = disaster zone, north and south of the border - N Ireland has the worst performing NHS in the UK. 

Ireland is more corporate and neoliberal than any other country I can think of outside the USA... pretty vile social impacts. Build to rent is far stronger there than here in Britain, for example... which restricts supply further. 

It's a disaster zone, politically - the sooner they stop voting Fianna Fail/Fine Gael, the better... and that is starting to happen (unlike here in the UK, where people still seem wedded to the tired old Tories and Labour). People have had enough of it all. 

I've been considering moving home for a couple of years, but have decided not to... there are too many problems for my liking. 

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz