Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Grayphil]

 

I cannot believe you are still sticking to these views.

Levitt was wrong, his calculations were nonsense. He was just trying to fit the data to his pet theory. I told you when you first posted his prediction that the maths was bad and that a back of a fag packet calculation would show that he was demonstrably wrong.

Ferguson's model used the generally accepted IFR and R number to say that reaching a 75% infection rate would entail 500k deaths. We reached around 7.5% for 50k deaths i.e. the real life outcome showed his maths was good (although the maths is so simple you could have reached the same conclusion with a fag packet or even a bit of mental arithmetic).   

  

I cannot believe that you are! 

Let's do some fag packet calculations shall we. But it wil show why I am, as we are forcing this issue, (well Govt.).

300,000 tests a day average for October, the fpr, ranging from 1% (Matt Hancock, and BMJ) 

To 5% also the BMJ, and Dr Yardley and a load of others, including the guy who ran the human genome project at MIT, who spent 20 years using pcr tests. And has recently broken cover to speak out against this test and the insanity behind it. 

So with 9 million tests, a month we have between 90,000 and 450,000 false positives a month. 

Thos is also skewed towards care homes & hospitals who are tested weekly. 

Its known that the pcr test pulls up dead RNA.. Anywhere over 33 cycles, and it's more likely to give a false positive, if 

A, the person has previously had Covid in the last 3 months, any time the Ct is over 33 (we are using 45)

B, If the subject is, or has been suffering from another Coronavirus. Of the 4 in circulation. 

C, the fpr, will be 0.8% to 1% of none of the above criteria has been met. 

It can range over 5%.

This has already been posted, but I understand the thread is long, and you may miss a day.. 

But the point is with the care home, if 5% of all residents are getting a false positive, its enough to drive the numbers, easily to what we are seeing, and actually explains why average age of death with Covid is 82.4..

Im not saying it doesnt exist, at all, it clearly does, however upon reflection, the things that have changed, is testing capacity has gone up, and more people catching regular colds at this time of year, could also be skewing the results. 

As normal I'm rambling, but this is what makes sense to me. (until tomorrow night!) 

 

[Grayphil]

 

If you saw how much graft the people working in the critical care wards were putting in you wouldn't make such an ignorant and offensive comment. 

The so called clean zones are already having Covid outbreaks, once that happens the patients stop coming in for appointments,  consultants won't carry out procedures on vulnerable patients and the need for full infection control procedures greatly reduces capacity. 

Perhaps you can tell us how they maintain services in such circumstances.    

 

Thet aren't the only people working hard at this time, and if it's offensive to you, it's because. you are personally affected. 

Its a fact, that "saving the NHS" has, and is screwing the country..

Plus the Covid only service (and it 80% is) had killed more than its saved. 

[Grayphil]

 

Just wondering why people keep going on about Sweden, the least successful of the Scandinavian countries.  

Sweden deaths per million 600, Norway 51. 

Sweden's cases now spiking to 1,500 per day.

Sweden's last reported day Oct 22nd was 1255 v Norway at 268

  

Sweden has just had the least deaths reported per million ever.. 

Ever on record.. In a global pandemic. 

it could be argued Norway have it yet to come? 

But right now, they seem protected by geography of a herd immune Sweden and the Sea. 

 

[Grayphil]

 

Why is emulating a country that experienced more than ten times as many deaths per capita than its neighbours without any economic benefit such a good plan exactly?

 

Just to point out.. That Sweden has had its lowest cases of deaths ever on record, for the month of September, in the middle of a global Pandemic. 

 

[24gray24]

Grayphil: do you believe the NHS cannot get overwhelmed by covid any more? 

Preacher man and arpeggio: same question. 

[Grayphil]

 

Why is emulating a country that experienced more than ten times as many deaths per capita than its neighbours without any economic benefit such a good plan exactly?

 

Actually here ya go.. 

I'm not making this up.. 

here is the maths, it may work out it finishes with less overall deaths for the year 

Let's start looking to Sweden not trying to pooh pooh it, because Norway did have a lock down and geography may be assisting now 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

I cannot believe that you are! 

Let's do some fag packet calculations shall we. But it wil show why I am, as we are forcing this issue, (well Govt.).

300,000 tests a day average for October, the fpr, ranging from 1% (Matt Hancock, and BMJ) 

To 5% also the BMJ, and Dr Yardley and a load of others, including the guy who ran the human genome project at MIT, who spent 20 years using pcr tests. And has recently broken cover to speak out against this test and the insanity behind it. 

So with 9 million tests, a month we have between 90,000 and 450,000 false positives a month. 

Thos is also skewed towards care homes & hospitals who are tested weekly. 

Its known that the pcr test pulls up dead RNA.. Anywhere over 33 cycles, and it's more likely to give a false positive, if 

A, the person has previously had Covid in the last 3 months, any time the Ct is over 33 (we are using 45)

B, If the subject is, or has been suffering from another Coronavirus. Of the 4 in circulation. 

C, the fpr, will be 0.8% to 1% of none of the above criteria has been met. 

It can range over 5%.

This has already been posted, but I understand the thread is long, and you may miss a day.. 

But the point is with the care home, if 5% of all residents are getting a false positive, its enough to drive the numbers, easily to what we are seeing, and actually explains why average age of death with Covid is 82.4..

Im not saying it doesnt exist, at all, it clearly does, however upon reflection, the things that have changed, is testing capacity has gone up, and more people catching regular colds at this time of year, could also be skewing the results. 

As normal I'm rambling, but this is what makes sense to me. (until tomorrow night!) 

 

Makes perfect sense to me but clearly not to the statistically challenged in charge. 

As has been said so many time the best measure is excess deaths. At the moment they are in line with previous years. 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

Just to point out.. That Sweden has had its lowest cases of deaths ever on record, for the month of September, in the middle of a global Pandemic. 

 

More good news from Sweden. 

 

 

[Grayphil]

 

Grayphil: do you believe the NHS cannot get overwhelmed by covid any more? 

Preacher man and arpeggio: same question. 

I believe that it can, if you look to the papers from 2018 for example they were saying it got over whelmed by the flu. 

Its comes near to breaking point every winter. 

What is criminal, however, is that we are approaching this winter with 2000 less beds than last year.. 

We have had 6 months to prepare, and a hit TV show, to tell us that "winter is coming"  so please explain, how we can spunk billions on furlough, billions of track and trace, and still enter winter with 2000 less beds than last year? 

If you don't consider that madness. I don't know what would "shake that head" 

[Grayphil]

 

Makes perfect sense to me but clearly not to the statistically challenged in charge. 

As has been said so many time the best measure is excess deaths. At the moment they are in line with previous years. 

 

Ah..yes, but don't forget, that you and I are being painted to be the crazy ones here.! 

I believe this graph is from OCEBR? 

[24gray24]

 

I believe that it can, if you look to the papers from 2018 for example they were saying it got over whelmed by the flu. 

Its comes near to breaking point every winter. 

What is criminal, however, is that we are approaching this winter with 2000 less beds than last year.. 

We have had 6 months to prepare, and a hit TV show, to tell us that "winter is coming"  so please explain, how we can spunk billions on furlough, billions of track and trace, and still enter winter with 2000 less beds than last year? 

If you don't consider that madness. I don't know what would "shake that head" 

So if it can get overwhelmed, how do you stop that happening... with this government in charge? 

You can't just let it rip...

[Grayphil]

 

So if it can get overwhelmed, how do you stop that happening... with this government in charge? 

You can't just let it rip...

Well i have been pondering this for the last couple of days, (maybe more) it's interesting that Flu has taken a nosedive,. It literally doesn't seem to exist as @Clarky Cat pointed out,

And part of the reason, as its less infectious than Covid. 

So normally Flu overwhelms us, and the Govt was scared of Covid and Flu Double whammy 

So I don't think social distancing is terrible for a while, (the notion of it,) better hand washing, and if you are sick, more understanding from your employer, and more support from the goverment. 

Its my views, that we have been seen as brave to battle on through colds & flu, infecting people as we travel and in the office...

So rapid Dr's notes and proper Govt support for those who are clearly sick.  

This is a long term thing proposal. I dunno an app on a phone to check temperature of sick, zoom call GP. APP says high temp, legally you stay off work, and Govt (not work supports you) would have saved a lot more money.

But right now, we need stop community testing, and just test sick people, and double test positives. That needs to happen now. 

[The Preacherman]

 

Grayphil: do you believe the NHS cannot get overwhelmed by covid any more? 

Preacher man and arpeggio: same question. 

The NHS is so fragile that it is constantly at risk of being overwhelmed.

We avoid it being overwhelmed in April by emptying geriatric wards  seeding covid infections in care homes, and by scaring people to stay at home and die at home. Plus some smart thinking by ICU medics to increase the number of ICU beds. 

At the moment the problems are regional North of England and Northern Ireland and the sign are promising although things are stretched the hospitals seem to be coping. 

[24gray24]

 

Well i have been pondering this for the last couple of days, (maybe more) it's interesting that Flu has taken a nosedive,. It literally doesn't seem to exist as @Clarky Cat pointed out,

And part of the reason, as its less infectious than Covid. 

So normally Flu overwhelms us, and the Govt was scared of Covid and Flu Double whammy 

So I don't think social distancing is terrible for a while, (the notion of it,) better hand washing, and if you are sick, more understanding from your employer, and more support from the goverment. 

Its my views, that we have been seen as brave to battle on through colds & flu, infecting people as we travel and in the office...

So rapid Dr's notes and proper Govt support for those who are clearly sick.  

This is a long term thing proposal. I dunno an app on a phone to check temperature of sick, zoom call GP. APP says high temp, legally you stay off work, and Govt (not work supports you) would have saved a lot more money.

But right now, we need stop community testing, and just test sick people, and double test positives. That needs to happen now. 

That will stop the NHS getting overwhelmed?  

covid is more infectious than flu, so if flu nearly overwhelms it each winter, then covid certainly will. 

[Grayphil]

 

So if it can get overwhelmed, how do you stop that happening... with this government in charge? 

You can't just let it rip...

Ahh also as for the let it rip.. I think the posters that you tagged before will probably agree with me, that we have let it rip, as it were in lots of places and we aren't that far away from herd immunity. 

[The Preacherman]

 

More good news from Sweden. 

 

 

And even more good news from Sweden. 

 

 

[Arpeggio]

 

So if it can get overwhelmed, how do you stop that happening... with this government in charge? 

You can't just let it rip...

Already with 2000 less beds than last year but now with the economy decimated, lots of money wasted by government followed by cuts. Would it surprise anyone if they cut even more beds? I suppose would could just keep going like that until something turns up.

[24gray24]

 

The NHS is so fragile that it is constantly at risk of being overwhelmed.

We avoid it being overwhelmed in April by emptying geriatric wards  seeding covid infections in care homes, and by scaring people to stay at home and die at home. Plus some smart thinking by ICU medics to increase the number of ICU beds. 

At the moment the problems are regional North of England and Northern Ireland and the sign are promising although things are stretched the hospitals seem to be coping. 

Institutions seem to be coping until it becomes undeniable usually...

I think you have to have a plan b.

(But the difficult bit is coming up with a plan b this government could actually carry out successfully. ..)

[Grayphil]

 

That will stop the NHS getting overwhelmed?  

covid is more infectious than flu, so if flu nearly overwhelms it each winter, then covid certainly will. 

Ahh I just replied to that point.. I believe we are over the worst of Covid, but not all flus, colds. 

I believe we won't get overwhelmed from Covid, I was talking more long term on how we could do better as well. 

But why 2000 beds less. We should have 20,000 more if the Govt was serious about Covid. 

Thats a scandal there. 

[Grayphil]

 

And even more good news from Sweden. 

 

 

Al the evidence was there for them, but they chose not to look.. 

But as you know l, they won't reply to these charts giving their explanations,, they will resort to Ad Homs. Tomorrow, for unrelated things. 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

Ahh also as for the let it rip.. I think the posters that you tagged before will probably agree with me, that we have let it rip, as it were in lots of places and we aren't that far away from herd immunity. 

This so called second wave has been very regional and a logical conclusion is that it has hit areas that failed to reach herd immunity in March. 

[Grayphil]

 

Institutions seem to be coping until it becomes undeniable usually...

I think you have to have a plan b.

(But the difficult bit is coming up with a plan b this government could actually carry out successfully. ..)

They had 6 months.

Surely the wisdon of SAGE, suggested a few more beds, wouldn't be the crappest idea.?

Instead we get unsustainable, unscientific 2 week circuit breakers 

[Arpeggio]

 

That will stop the NHS getting overwhelmed?  

covid is more infectious than flu, so if flu nearly overwhelms it each winter, then covid certainly will. 

You seem concerned about C19. I know people in their 70s who barely noticed it when they had it. Might be due to how they (used to) have a healthy, active, lifestyle (before lockdown).

[Grayphil]

 

This so called second wave has been very regional and a logical conclusion is that it has hit areas that failed to reach herd immunity in March. 

Yup

[The Preacherman]

 

Institutions seem to be coping until it becomes undeniable usually...

I think you have to have a plan b.

(But the difficult bit is coming up with a plan b this government could actually carry out successfully. ..)

Well we were meant to have a pandemic plan that was deemed to be world beating by WHO. Unfortunately our f**kwit government didn't apply the contents of the plan, although no one knows what is in this plan.