Global Real Narrow and Broad Money Cratering

[macca13]

I have started to park on a rough estate to avoid paying for parking. Luckily my crap car fits right in.. What I noticed as I walk through the estate is cars parked up full of blankets and pillows with steamed up windows.. This economy is a travesty! There was no recovery, just more wealth transfer.. 

Things are the worst I have ever seen them in my lifetime. 

[chronyx]

What area are you in macca? 

[Si1]

7 minutes ago, macca13 said:

I have started to park on a rough estate to avoid paying for parking. Luckily my crap car fits right in.. What I noticed as I walk through the estate is cars parked up full of blankets and pillows with steamed up windows.. This economy is a travesty! There was no recovery, just more wealth transfer.. 

Things are the worst I have ever seen them in my lifetime. 

It's scary and obscene.

[macca13]

14 hours ago, TonyJ said:

It may have been the LibDems that stopped them, but in that case the Tories should have pushed for it much harder.

The rich have never made so much money, why would they have wanted to stop the bubbles? I think you are looking at the CONservatives through rose tinted spectacles.. They are pure evil.. 6 Jobs Osborn, one of his jobs was £650’000 from black rock.. what you think they were paying him for? His personality.. ? 2nd jobs are just legalised brown envelopes.. 

[macca13]

10 minutes ago, chronyx said:

What area are you in macca? 

Kingston upon Thames Cambridge estate, used to hang out in Croydon.. I’ve seen and experienced many things.. 

Edited April 15, 2018 by macca13

[chronyx]

Just now, macca13 said:

Kingston upon Thames Cambridge estate 

Blimey, I'm up the A3 in Hampshire and haven't seen anything on that level...yet

[onlooker]

22 minutes ago, macca13 said:

I have started to park on a rough estate to avoid paying for parking. Luckily my crap car fits right in.. What I noticed as I walk through the estate is cars parked up full of blankets and pillows with steamed up windows.. This economy is a travesty! There was no recovery, just more wealth transfer.. 

Things are the worst I have ever seen them in my lifetime. 

Which group of immigrants are kipping there?

[macca13]

5 minutes ago, onlooker said:

Which group of immigrants are kipping there?

The cars were British plates.. unsure of the occupants 

Edited April 15, 2018 by macca13

[macca13]

17 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Blimey, I'm up the A3 in Hampshire and haven't seen anything on that level...yet

Cambridge estate is a bit rough.. had a murder outside my house, seen 2 gangs throwing each other over car bonnets, been threatened with a knife.. got locked in a club in Croydon (Atlantis) years ago as there was a gun fight in the car park.. 

Had 1 new bonnet, 1 new rear glass window and 3 wing mirrors.. lovely place.. ?

[adarmo]

22 hours ago, Lurkerbelow said:

They didn't because they f*cked up in a major way in their decision to sell austerity to the public and thereafter implement it.

The economy doesn't work like people think it does because they base it on their own household experiences.   Thus if they spend too much then the answer is invariably and always to spend less.   However when you look at an economy overall, that economy is a function of the cumulative spending of all the participants.  Thus if households and businesses are spending less causing the economy to shrink, if gov then comes along and does the same under the mantle of austerity all that happens is the economy shrinks faster.   This is why we were verging a double dip recession as austerity policies started to bite.

What was needed was offsetting gov spending on pro-growth polices while they allowed the private sector bubble to deflate.  So for example spending heavily on university R&D, rebuilding our dilapidated infrastructure, a mass council house building program, etc, etc.   But because they'd got everyone (or way too many people at any rate) believing that gov debt was the problem, they couldn't do that.   Hence under the arguments they'd been publicly making, if they had allowed the bubble to deflate wayyy harsher austerity would have had to occur, because of the resultant decline in tax revenues because of the bursting bubble (think of the deficit!!!).   The end result would have been an overall highly contractionary macro-economic environment, that would have rapidly pushed us into permanent depression (20%+ unemployment, etc), where they couldn't even implement offsetting pro-growth policy because of the lies they'd told earlier.

So instead of that, instead of admitting to their lies and getting torn to bits politically, they decided to reinflate our private sector economy via our housing bubble, then claim that it was actually a result of their long term economic policies actually working, when it was nothing of the sort.

What austerity?

Govt debt wasn't the problem, it was the rate of borrowing that was the concern if I recall.

But regardless of all that yes they missed a golden opportunity to fix pretty much everything barring the crazies borrowing 125% and screw them. 

[ccc]

On 15/04/2018 at 8:22 AM, TonyJ said:

You'll always get large parts of the electorate, big or small, who don't understand economics. People generally knew something had gone badly wrong in 2008, even if they didn't understand the causes. A lot of people will always vote out of habit, and maybe habitually lazy assumptions of where their self interest lies.  But what i am saying is that if ever there was a time to let the debt bubble just deflate naturally, and get forgiven for it, it was 2010. Instead the Tories chose to re-inflate it furiously and make it worse, when they could instead have sorted out the mess back then. Alas, that opportunity has now passed. 

I personally don't think most economists understand economics. 

[adarmo]

23 hours ago, TJHooker said:

Osborne who hired property bubble blower extraordinaire namely Mark Carney and came up with Help to Buy 1/2/3 along with the rest of it. Prices in 2013 were about to fall dramatically then he created his "nice little property boom".

And Cameron who is a poor mans Tony Blair with absolutely no idea whats going on in the country as he's posher than the Queen and is only in politics to line his chums pockets. FFS he created the mess in  Libya which has seen boat loads of Africans drown and Europe get swamped with unwanted immigrants.

Those 2 have created the current mess we are in to suggest they are anything other than utterly useless would be inaccurate.

Whilst many on here salivate about S24, since it was announced property prices have continued to rise pretty much everywhere apart from prime central London and it was pathetically only aimed at higher rate tax payers along with being implemented over a period of 6 bleedin years. No tax in history has been implemented over such a long period but the Tories have to give their own parasitic kind dont they.

 

By 2013 the crash was history. It was the intervention in 2009 that stopped the 20% correction becoming at 50% correction. Granted Carney and all the other ramping stoked another boom though. 

I would challenge that no tax in history has been implemented over such a long period. Income tax started at 1% and slowly increased over a much longer period. Corporation tax rates are forward guided and are falling, and have been over a much longer period.

Not sure that anyone becomes PM to make their mates rich? This is tired old dross puked out by Socialist Worker waving cretins. One could describe socialism as a parasite, specifically the Labour party and it's merry band of govt workers (to play devil's advocate). Let us not forget which party was in power that got us into this fine mess in the first place. Let us not forget which party was in power when the wheels came off and it would have corrected but instead of letting it work itself out they intervened. *slow clap*.

[TJHooker]

On 16/04/2018 at 10:07 PM, adarmo said:

By 2013 the crash was history. It was the intervention in 2009 that stopped the 20% correction becoming at 50% correction. Granted Carney and all the other ramping stoked another boom though. 

I would challenge that no tax in history has been implemented over such a long period. Income tax started at 1% and slowly increased over a much longer period. Corporation tax rates are forward guided and are falling, and have been over a much longer period.

Not sure that anyone becomes PM to make their mates rich? This is tired old dross puked out by Socialist Worker waving cretins. One could describe socialism as a parasite, specifically the Labour party and it's merry band of govt workers (to play devil's advocate). Let us not forget which party was in power that got us into this fine mess in the first place. Let us not forget which party was in power when the wheels came off and it would have corrected but instead of letting it work itself out they intervened. *slow clap*.

Income tax rose over hundreds of years your comparison it utter nonsense.

 Prices were dropping in 2013 but your beloved Tory party stopped that.

Your response isn't even a good strawman

 

 

[onlooker]

8 hours ago, TJHooker said:

 Prices were dropping in 2013 but your beloved Tory party 300,000+ net arrivals in 2014 & 2015 stopped that (https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics).

 

 

Corrected for you.

[TJHooker]

7 hours ago, onlooker said:

Corrected for you.

Nah it was Help to Buy and Funding for Lending that reinflated the bubble.

[TJHooker]

3 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

I think it's a combination of lots of policies that enormously re-inflated the housing bubble, particularly:

QE

Zirp 

Help to buy

TLS 

FLS 

Immigration

Tax relief for BTL 

Not sorting out the planning system

 

 

Im purely talking about 2013, they introduced FFL and HTB 1 then 2 and after HTB 2 prices went insane within months.

0.25 and TFS poured fuel onto the fire.

[adarmo]

21 hours ago, TJHooker said:

Income tax rose over hundreds of years your comparison it utter nonsense.

 Prices were dropping in 2013 but your beloved Tory party stopped that.

Your response isn't even a good strawman

OK then. But S.24 higher rate income tax relief is falling over 4 years. Perhaps you'd clarify what you meant by implemented?

Why do you think the Tory party is dear to me? 

It's not a good straw man because it's not a straw man. 

[adarmo]

5 hours ago, TJHooker said:

Nah it was Help to Buy and Funding for Lending that reinflated the bubble.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/jan2017

You sure it wasn't ZIRP and Labour agreeing to pay the interest on people's mortgages?

[TJHooker]

2 hours ago, adarmo said:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/jan2017

You sure it wasn't ZIRP and Labour agreeing to pay the interest on people's mortgages?

I know exacly what Labour have done. But your beloved Tory party have been in control since 2010 and have gone out of their way to recreate Browns bubble.

FFS it was leaked that your darling Osborne  said " “Hopefully we will get a little housing boom and everyone will be happy as property values go up,”

https://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/inside-westminster-george-osborne-s-housing-boom-will-echo-into-the-future-8869835.html

But yes clearly Help to Buy and Funding For Lending were Labours fault.

[TJHooker]

2 hours ago, adarmo said:

OK then. But S.24 higher rate income tax relief is falling over 4 years. Perhaps you'd clarify what you meant by implemented?

Why do you think the Tory party is dear to me? 

It's not a good straw man because it's not a straw man. 

Definition of a strawman argument - https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=straw+man+definition&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB715GB715&oq=straw+man+&aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0l5.4435j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Quite obviously i mean S24 was announced in 2015 and does not fully come in until 2021.

And you are defending the Tory party by passing the buck to a party that have not been in govt for 8 years, thats why i think the Tory party are dear to you. Besides havent you got lots of debt you need to be kept as cheap as possible.

 

[TJHooker]

7 hours ago, TonyJ said:

All those policies, except TLS, were in play in 2013. For the housing market zirp has probably been the most powerful inflator, and the others poured fuel on that fire, but I don't know enough to attribute degrees of blame to each individual policy.

TFS was announced in 2012, that along with Help to Sell created a nice little property boom as the then Chancellor wanted.

"Hopefully we will get a little housing boom and everyone will be happy as property values go up," the Chancellor reportedly told the cabinet
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/10/osborne-reveals-true-aim-help-buy-inflate-house-prices

Are you just pretending that you don't think the current property bubble is Tory policy? It hasn;t happened by accident and Labour havent been in power for 8 years to be held responsible.

[TJHooker]

4 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

Of course the housing bubble is Tory policy. I never said it wasn't.

Apologies 

[adarmo]

19 minutes ago, TJHooker said:

Definition of a strawman argument - https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=straw+man+definition&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB715GB715&oq=straw+man+&aqs=chrome.2.69i57j0l5.4435j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Quite obviously i mean S24 was announced in 2015 and does not fully come in until 2021.

And you are defending the Tory party by passing the buck to a party that have not been in govt for 8 years, thats why i think the Tory party are dear to you. Besides havent you got lots of debt you need to be kept as cheap as possible.

 

So talk me through then how rebutting your point that S24 is the most lengthy implementation of a tax ever is a straw man (it's actually two words since we're now patronising each other) argument? It was more a 'look buddy perhaps you're being a bit hysterical'.

Yes - that's four years like I said but not the most lengthy implementation of a tax ever. Pretty much every year they cut corporation tax rates... for example. But then if you're right, what is the second most lengthy implemented tax? 

Blaming Labour for engineering the boom in the first place (what happened to prices from 1997 to 2010 and that includes the GFC), and then blaming them for throwing everything at the housing market to stop it correcting in 2008 (prices were well and truly back from crashing well before 2010 - see the link I sent you from the ONS) is not making out with Teresa May behind the bike sheds is it? It is laying blame where blame is due. In fairness to you though HTB has no doubt had an impact. 

Are you now suggesting that because I may have a mortgage I should vote for the Tory party because the Tory party will keep it cheap for me? Again, under which government did interest rates plummet to bail out the really over indebted? Was it Labour? Why yes! I think it was.

Perhaps if I have loads of debt I should vote for Corby since he'll have an aspiration to wipe student loans and buy up loads of houses to house the homeless and will somehow magic up a million organic diverse vegan council houses.What I hear from Corby is what I hear from Tory. Stoke demand today and address supply tomorrow. 

Good to see you're all over it though.