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Digsby

Rightmove HPI +0.4%

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Just out:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-January-FINAL.pdf

Quote

With markedly fewer buy-to-let purchasers than this time a year ago, the number of sales agreed in the typical first-time-buyer sector of two bedrooms and fewer was down 13.2% in December compared to the same month in 2015 (sales agreed in this sector are still up 0.8% when compared to December 2014 which was not distorted by the buy-to-let rush). As a result, available stock for sale in this sector is up 1.9% compared to last year, offering more choice for first-time buyers. This contrasts with the same period a year ago, when available stock fell by 18% as active buy-to-let purchasers reduced choice and limited buyers’ ability to negotiate. Shipside adds: “Those planning to buy their first home in 2017 have more choice of properties and less competition from other buyers than their counterparts a year ago. It’s a possible learning point for aspiring first-time buyers that a year ago buy-to-let purchasers acted more quickly and closed deals at a faster rate, appearing not to take a Christmas break. Admittedly they had the financial incentive of a deadline to motivate them, but first-time buyers still have time to act and currently have the incentive of stronger negotiating power to try and mitigate the upwards trajectory of property prices.” A restraining force on potential first-time buyer activity is increasingly stretched affordability. Their favoured target sector of two bedrooms or fewer has seen the biggest price rises both month-on-month (+2.6%) and year-on-year (+6.4%) of any sector, partly a legacy from last spring’s buy-to-let surge. Shipside advises: “Some sellers of first-time-buyer properties may be being over-optimistic with their pricing, giving an opportunity for budget-strapped first-time buyers to negotiate, especially if they act now while there’s still more choice available.”

 

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Kevin Shaw, national sales director at estate agency Leaders, says: “It is clear that first-time buyers are outnumbering buy-to-let investors right now. We have seen an increasing number of one-bedroom apartments, which historically would attract first-time buyers and investors in equal numbers, snapped up by the former. This is largely because first-time buyers have had numerous offers accepted over the asking price so are obviously determined and able to secure these properties in the current market. Investors are understandably focused on the price as this drives the yield and generally do not want to get into a bidding war to secure these properties. It is a similar story with modest freehold houses in town centre locations, which would typically attract investors. But in recent months the majority of viewers have been private firsttime buyers.”

 

Quote

Mark Manning, Director of Manning Stainton in Leeds, Harrogate, Wetherby and Wakefield said: “As we got off the train onto the 2017 platform it was difficult to know who might be there to greet us. Were we to expect a lonely welcome and a continuation of the subdued market we saw at the end of the year or a swathe of new sellers ready to greet us. Fortunately, the answer appears for now to have been the latter. New seller enquiries are 26% up on the same time last year giving the strongest indication that we may see a slight ease in the lack of supply in the market. Now this will be welcome news amongst first-time buyers who have registered in strong numbers and are waiting for much needed new stock to come to market. Combine this with a comparative reduction in new investors and landlords of 32% over the last quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago and this may well be the year of the first-time buyer.”

It's looking like the recent trends I've been noticing with more stock available and less demand is starting to show through in the figures. The big question for me is whether the loss of competition from more experienced investors will be enough to make up for the inexperience of first time buyers on price negotiation. If not, we could still see prices rising as they continue to act as though the market had not changed.

I also wonder if there won't be an increased incentive to over-value from agents as they scrabble to build a pipeline to counteract the effects of the lettings fees ban in April. 

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I struggle to take their figures seriously - apparently prices are up 16 per cent in a month in Kensington and Chelsea and down 9 per cent in Hammersmith and Fulham next door. Why do they bother publishing such nonsense.

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Similar to my impression of my local market. Stock is increasing, big expensive (but better value) stuff still shifting, but taking longer to SSTC.

FTB/(ex?)-BTL territory is going on at 2013 + 100%, and just stacking up...

We need some fire sales, and a change in sentiment. Hopefully S24 will work its' magic.

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1 minute ago, MARTINX9 said:

I struggle to take their figures seriously - apparently prices are up 16 per cent in a month in Kensington and Chelsea and down 9 per cent in Hammersmith and Fulham next door. Why do they bother publishing such nonsense.

You can take them seriously, but with the understanding that it's an incomplete a flawed picture as far as sold prices go. There could have been a tiny handful of stock coming on the market in K&C at asking prices up 16% in a month - doesn't mean they'll sell at that price and there could have been dozens of existing stock who's asking prices were reduced by 16%. None of that will be reflected in the index.

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2 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

I struggle to take their figures seriously - apparently prices are up 16 per cent in a month in Kensington and Chelsea and down 9 per cent in Hammersmith and Fulham next door. Why do they bother publishing such nonsense.

This might be consistent with a low volume environment, insane volatility at a local level driven by one or two sales.

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2 minutes ago, LittlePig said:

This might be consistent with a low volume environment, insane volatility at a local level driven by one or two sales.

Plus if sold prices are falling, vendors could be upping asking prices in the hope of mitigating expectations from buyers to be able to negotiate a hefty discount. It's the transaction prices that count, asking prices are about psychology.

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15 minutes ago, LittlePig said:

This might be consistent with a low volume environment, insane volatility at a local level driven by one or two sales.

This is an index of (initial) asking prices - but the same theory applies.

I think a Land Reg update is out this morning too?

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1 minute ago, rantnrave said:

This is an index of (initial) asking prices - but the same theory applies.

I think a Land Reg update is out this morning too?

Yeah, sorry I read it as one or two new listings. My response applies in that context.

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2 hours ago, Digsby said:

Just out:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-January-FINAL.pdf

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A little off the subject but I have noticed a lot of we buy any house advertisements on TV over last few days, Have noticed from the past these companies seem to rise their heads when there are desperate sellers in the market. 

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, LittlePig said:

This might be consistent with a low volume environment, insane volatility at a local level driven by one or two sales.

indeed

prices in my yard (newham) up 12.something% in one month on the back of a 6.something% fall last month

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The thing with BTL buyers being replaced with FTB buyers is MMR.
BTL could bid crazy amounts, 20-30% above FTB. Now that the BTL boil has been lanced we should see lower offers getting accepted.
FTB may be keen but they cant offer what they cant borrow.

Of course we will see a few keen FTB jumping straight in, but those will be few and far between. For 2017 its better to wait until the end of the year or even longer while you continue to build up your war chest.

The Volume increase is the exciting thing, i was getting to the point that for months there was hardly anything listed, and what was listed was well above any realistic prices even for BTL morons.

We should see a steady build of volume, a spring bounce as per usual. Then the second half of the year should be very interesting as more BTL actually realise the game is up. In non south-east town towns and cities BTL has been the driving factor since 2007, we now face years of building volumes and falling or stagnating prices. Happy days. 

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1 hour ago, jiltedjen said:

the second half of the year should be very interesting as more BTL actually realise the game is up.

Why?

At least half of BTLers have no idea about what's going to hit them. They'll find out when their 2017-18 tax bill arrives in about 15 months time.

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21 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Why?

At least half of BTLers have no idea about what's going to hit them. They'll find out when their 2017-18 tax bill arrives in about 15 months time.

 

+1 on that one, I was talking to an estate / letting agent the other day who I know also has his own 2 or 3 BTL. I asked him about section 24 and what his thoughts were, he had absolutely no clue what I was talking about. I very quickly changed the subject and pretended I'd got myself in a muddle.

Like f##k was I going to help him in any way shape or form!

 

BF

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i think the media is going to really ramp up with more and more extreme stories.

'The Buy To Let Trap' etc.

Mostly towards the end of the year. I think a log of mugs are going to come around to it. Even if only half the BTL's become aware that will make a big difference to the market. 

We are already getting articles 'the death of BTL'. I think we will start to see real changes to the housing market towards the back end of this year.

At least i really hope so, waiting until summer 2018 is going to be a right ball-ache for me.

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3 hours ago, allornothing said:

This tax change is a drop in the ocean and wont' change a whole nation's general opinion that property is a good and safe investment.

 

 

The tax change wont', but changing the opportunity for BTL to lose money will.  When it becomes a negative, not a retards boast.

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