The Rise Of The East

[Bemused]

For millennia the East was a predominant region in terms of medicinal advancements, economics, philosophy, mathematics and cultural and artistic development.

Whilst much of Europe was floundering in the Dark ages, the East was flourishing. Could this situation be about to repeat itself?

China and India are gearing up to be economic powerhouses and have been steadily laying solid foundations for decades (OK the IT side of things in India was unprecedented as it by-passed the usual Government red tape). However on the surface it appears as if the speed of change in the West and a very short term mentality has sown the seeds of a decline that will be difficult to reverse.

Ok this is a bit of a sweeping statement so I will attempt to back it up briefly.

With the change from an economy based on engineering and production and the rise of a globalised "service based" economy we have witnessed rapid change. For me some of the noticeable "side effects" of this change have been:

1. A rapid rise in the amount of liquid cash flow, resulting in unprecidented debt levels, asset bubbles and a rise in the standard and crucially the COST of living.

2.Businesses that have expanded rapidly often with working practices which seem to defy long term sustainability (Enron)

3. Corporate monsters (Monopolies) which consume each other (bear with me I'm no economist)

For example company A has a record profits year - expands - pays for more premises - increases turner- increases staffing levels - buys up rival - increases staff - increases premises - needs another record year and so on.

As a result of the rise in the cost of living workers demand more money - putting businesses in a dilemma - staff is becoming an expensive commodity - what can they do? "Offshore" or "Mechanise" not sure what the electronic equivalent of this is but the end result is a "streamlined" workforce that become cheaper as they are gradually deskilled.

This creates several problems:

1. A workforce that does not receive adequate investment in training for the job NOW let alone the job in the future

2. Rising costs of production though wages and rents as well as taxes

3. The rise of monopolies with increased buying power that swallow up their rivals blunting the competitive edge and create large unwieldy companies.

To compound these problems we have an aging infrastructure, huge levels of debt (both personal and national), a workforce that has never known any really lean times and is not as hungry as their competitors abroad.

On the Flip side we have the East with rapidly improving infrastructure, great leaps in technological progress - such as bypassing landlines to make the leap to digital broadcasting and telephony - a workforce that in many areas is highly educated and a large pool of surplus labour hungry to improve their own conditions.

Watch the scales tip - House Prices are just one of the symptoms of our perilous economy.

[right_freds_dead]

5. pestilence in the form of a mutating flu virus.

[adamUK]

China and India are gearing up to be economic powerhouses and have been steadily laying solid foundations for decades (OK the IT side of things in India was unprecedented as it by-passed the usual Government red tape).

Look at it from China's point of view. It pretty much ruled the world up until the early 1400s when it collapsed in on itself. What's to come is only China re-establishing itself as the world leader.

The West (well, everybody, actually) will be back to the Tribute System of the Ming dynasty where in order to conduct trade we will have to cede submission and proclaim China's leaders as overlord.

[zorn]

Look at it from China's point of view. It pretty much ruled the world up until the early 1400s when it collapsed in on itself. What's to come is only China re-establishing itself as the world leader.

China never ruled the world, because it's never taken much interest in what happened outside China. At the time you're talking about, the Mongols ruled most of Asia, including China, but it wasn't a Chinese empire, ot was a Mongol one.

[right_freds_dead]

The West will be back to the Tribute System of the Ming dynasty where in order to conduct trade we will have to cede submission and proclaim China's leaders as overlord.

...you point being ???

[FollowTheBear]

I shouldn't worry too much. Yes, we need to adjust to the fact that China and India will be economic superpowers but why will that make it worse for us? Eventually it will not be cost effective to offshore jobs to these countries (I think Indian call centres are past their peak right now), and the richer they get then the more stuff we can sell them. And don't forget, China too has a seriously ageing population. I look forward to the day when the UK no longer tries to punch above its weight, withdraws from the UN security council, stops wasting money on nuclear weapons and just tries to be a nice place to live in and do business.

[29929BlackTuesday]

Ni Hao! Hey, watched Kung-Foo Hustle last night - ace. Xiexie. Laoshi 29929Black Tuesday.

[Bemused]

I shouldn't worry too much. Yes, we need to adjust to the fact that China and India will be economic superpowers but why will that make it worse for us? Eventually it will not be cost effective to offshore jobs to these countries (I think Indian call centres are past their peak right now), and the richer they get then the more stuff we can sell them. And don't forget, China too has a seriously ageing population. I look forward to the day when the UK no longer tries to punch above its weight, withdraws from the UN security council, stops wasting money on nuclear weapons and just tries to be a nice place to live in and do business.

I would be very worried. We are a debt based economy with an overreliance of imports (including energy). The present economy appears to have 3 major supports (consumer spending, house price "wealth" and a whole host of "service" sector and tech based jobs).

Current indicators of the cracks within this fragile economy are

Insolvancies of several major companies

Record bankrupsy levels

Fuel crisis warnings

Offshoring

On top of this we have a pensions time bomb.

Unless some careful long term planning is caried out by politicians a(s well as members of the general public sorting out their lifestyle aspirations and debt levels) the future could be very bleak.

[Fancypants]

China never ruled the world, because it's never taken much interest in what happened outside China. At the time you're talking about, the Mongols ruled most of Asia, including China, but it wasn't a Chinese empire, ot was a Mongol one.

try this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_...he_Great_Powers

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0...6637024-0743031

particularly good on why the Europeans superceded the Chinese in the 15th century - and some interesting thoughts on the future.

my failure to read this book at the age of 17 cost me a place at Cambridge University. Aged 22 and signing on, it proved to be a doddle!