The Kiwi's Face Their Demons

[ExiledMatty]

Have some good friends in Aucks, most of which have decent jobs but cat in hells chance of getting on the ladder. Even far away suburbs that were once untouchable (snobbery wise) are out of reach now.

The sad thing is I cannot see things improving for the ordinary worker. It would take some extreme taxes to put off the hoards of small investors. Then you have seemingly limitless Chinese money.

Very frustrating and a major reason why I wouldn't settle in NZ.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 minutes ago, ExiledMatty said:

Have some good friends in Aucks, most of which have decent jobs but cat in hells chance of getting on the ladder. Even far away suburbs that were once untouchable (snobbery wise) are out of reach now.

The sad thing is I cannot see things improving for the ordinary worker. It would take some extreme taxes to put off the hoards of small investors. Then you have seemingly limitless Chinese money.

Very frustrating and a major reason why I wouldn't settle in NZ.

Is that the seemingly limitless chinese money that's now subject to capital controls ?

 

[ExiledMatty]

3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is that the seemingly limitless chinese money that's now subject to capital controls ?

 

Let's hope so, but I still think money from Asia will find it's way into safe havens, unless the safe havens act.

If the Chinese are restricted then there are always Singaporean, Malaysian etc. Oh, and huge Indian middle class too.

[Sancho Panza]

Good video.

1/9/17

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11914654

1) LVR restrictions

2) Activity down to 30% of previous levels-not just valuations but sales too

3) less money coming from China

4) Nervousness ahead of election

 

'Winter, bank lending limits, the election and China's crackdown on capital flows have all been blamed for national house value growth being the slowest in five years and Auckland values hitting their most glacial pace since 2011.

The QV House Price Index out this morning showed that nationally values only rose at 4.8 per cent over the past year to hit $641,648.

Auckland values only rose at 2.8 per cent to an average $1,041,957, the slowest growth rate in six years. National values rose 1.2 per cent in the three months to August, while Auckland values fell 0.2 per cent in that time.

National QV spokesperson Andrea Rush said that a lack of listings over winter, LVR restrictions and stricter lending criteria by retail banks had led to a 30 per cent drop in market activity and sales volumes compared to the same time last year.

"General elections also traditionally compound any annual winter slow-down in the housing market due to uncertainty caused by potential policy changes so it's likely this is also a factor in the subdued sales activity," she said.

"In Auckland new sub-divisions previously popular with speculators including those from China have also recently seen lower demand and discounted sales prices."

"It's possible the crack-down by the Chinese Government on the amount of capital allowed to leave the country may be a factor as it's now much harder for new migrants or foreign buyers from China to get their cash out to purchase property," Rush said.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hamilton values rose 5 per cent in the last year and 1.4 per cent in the last three months to hit $544,469.

QV Hamilton valuer Stephen Hare said the market remained relatively subdued in the past month with listings staying on the market for a longer period, fewer properties going at auction and some properties selling for under the listing price.

Tauranga values rose 9.6 per cent annually and 1.7 per cent in the last quarter to reach $694,361.

QV Tauranga registered valuer David Hume said the market was stable, with the panic buying of 2015 and 2016 giving way to a more subdued approach from buyers.

"Investors are definitely much less active in the market than they were during the previous two years and we are also in a traditionally flat period in the market, at the end of winter with an upcoming general election," Hume said.

Napier was a stand-out, values there were up 18.8 per cent annually to $459,393. Values rose 5.3 per cent in the last quarter alone. QV homevalue Hawkes Bay registered valuer Michelle Drinkrow said out of town buyers, first home buyers and investors were active.

"We are noticing that buyers are now taking a bit more time and doing their due diligence some are also accepting faults or issues that may have previously put them off a property as they have been searching for so long. There is still a lack of listings with many taking a wait and see approach in regards to the election and the colder months," she said.

Wellington values were up 12.6 per cent annually to hit $724,511 while Christchurch rose 0.1 per cent annually to hit $493,069.

Rush said values might rise more early next year.

"It's likely the annual spring upturn in the market may be slower to arrive given the pending election but with the underlying drivers of a lack of supply and high net migration particularly in Auckland still remaining, it's possible that values may begin to rise again more steadily in the new year," she said.'

[Si1]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/09/housing-market-slumps-around-new-zealand.html

 

Housing market slumps around New Zealand

The number of houses being sold has dropped a whopping 20 percent compared to this time last year - and it's also not just in Auckland - the slump is happening all over the country

Edited September 16, 2017 by Si1

[Noallegiance]

46 minutes ago, Si1 said:

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/09/housing-market-slumps-around-new-zealand.html

 

Housing market slumps around New Zealand

The number of houses being sold has dropped a whopping 20 percent compared to this time last year - and it's also not just in Auckland - the slump is happening all over the WORLD....hopefully

Edited....just cos

[Si1]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

Edited....just cos

Fingers crossed. 

[Sancho Panza]

3 hours ago, Si1 said:

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2017/09/housing-market-slumps-around-new-zealand.html

 

Housing market slumps around New Zealand

The number of houses being sold has dropped a whopping 20 percent compared to this time last year - and it's also not just in Auckland - the slump is happening all over the country

Worth noting the South Island is down 35% in terms of transactions.Eeeek!

[Toast]

17 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Worth noting the South Island is down 35% in terms of transactions.Eeeek!

Similar to some regional property markets here, I think? The big question is when and how that impacts price. So far, demand seems to be neck-and-neck with supply in the race downwards.

[Sancho Panza]

4 hours ago, Toast said:

Similar to some regional property markets here, I think? The big question is when and how that impacts price. So far, demand seems to be neck-and-neck with supply in the race downwards.

That's the issue isn't it.Volume's dropping,prices are holding for now,but significant volume changes normally precede significant pricing changes,both up/down.

[Sancho Panza]

Volumes down across all price bands

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/09/nz-house-prices-rose-august-volumes-cratered/

[Sancho Panza]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/96755666/housing-crisis-documentary-pulls-no-punches-on-eve-of-election

'OPINION: Who owns New Zealand now? The NZ On Air-funded documentary that screened on Three on Tuesday, September 12 confronts the housing crisis head on and it's an eye-opener.

This doco doesn't just ask why house prices have soared while our home ownership rate is falling – it also wants to know why we have people sleeping in cars and "rental refugees" in Whangarei.

Today, we have a low-wage economy. Since the 1960s wages have increased 59 per cent, but housing has gone up a massive 280 per cent. As Bruce says: "Our market-driven economic system has created huge income inequalities that didn't exist 30 years ago."

But there's another factor that has contributed to the housing crisis, and, you guessed it, it's immigration.

But just how much of an impact does this have? The figures are all over the place, so Bruce seeks advice from independent Treasury, Reserve Bank and IMF advisor Michael Reddell, who "advises" Bruce to listen to the people who are making policy in Treasury, IMF and the Reserve Bank. What? You are the advisor Mr Reddell. If you can't tell us, who can?

And that seems to be the point. There is no data, just a heck of a lot of anecdotal evidence.

And this is where it gets really interesting. There is no register of foreign buyers.

Bruce also points out that fast-track investor visas to wealthy immigrants have not resulted in expected economic growth and job creation. Same thing happened in Australia and the UK, but those countries have toughened up on their fast-track programmes as a result. And in Canada, the scheme has been described as a "sham", with immigrants coming through the investor programme declaring a lower income in Canada than any other group, including refugees. '

 

[Sawitcoming]

The comments on that article are illuminating. Sounds like ordinary people and even boomers really see the problem more than they do here. These people don't sound like HPCers yet they seem to recognise the problem. This chap is clearly a home-owner so will lose value on his place but he understands that his children have been denied the same experience. 

Quote

bought my first home in 1983 under Post Office first home ownership system.  Great incentive with savings tax deductible and after 3 years had enough for 20% deposit, then purchased with Post Office mortgage at low interest rate available to first home buyers.

Just so sad that my children don't have the same opportunity.  Home start grant is a joke (even with National promise to double it).  works out to 1%.  Also, you can't buy a house in wellington worth buying that is under the $500,000 cap!

I would vote for the party that gets serious about supporting 1st home buyers into affordable homes by:  upping the Grant to 5% of purchase price (with realistic caps), providing below market interest rates (ie subsidy) for first 5 years (to first home buyers only).  They could this easily through the bank they own!

Next, get realistic and apply a capital gains tax on residential rental properties sold within 10 years of purchase.  This used to be done in the 1970-1980's, and was achieved by making the capital gain on sale taxable to the extent of interest cost previously claimed as a deduction against rental income.