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Foreverblowingbubbles

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  1. Foreverblowingbubbles

    LSL July Report annual +1.6%, monthly -0.2%

    Just being devil's advocate, as i do agree that falls in PCL will eventually feed through to the rest of London, however... PCL contains a lot of trophy asset places that are insanely expensive. Apartments on hyde park / park lane with a cost in 2015 of 75million. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3116377/Five-bedroom-One-Hyde-Park-apartment-costing-75MILLION-expensive-market.html There's a few trophy asset type places around central London that were at those types of prices - Regents Crescent, Nottinghill, Knightsbridge, St James's Park. The prices of these places are truly divorced from the reality of the rest of the market, and set by the money coming out of Russia, the middle east, China and Africa. These could cost 100million or 30million and they would still be disconnected from the rest of the market - and the difference of 1 or 2 houses selling at 30 million rather than 100 million will be enough to show up in the overall stats for PCL, because the total transaction volume is quite low in that area (I can't remember exactly the annual sales, but i think in the low thousands per year) Just back of a fag packet, but a thousand houses selling in a year at an average of 1.5million each, with a single house previously selling at 100million that now sells for 50million would impact the overall average prices by about 3% So, overall whilst i do think it is clear that the "real" market that does affect the rest of London is suffering - by which i mean places in PCL costing about 1-5million, there is a portion of the PCL market that really is pretty detatched from the prices in the rest of the market, and this is where really big moves in prices have happened
  2. Foreverblowingbubbles

    HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    Lovely but of banner ad serendipity on this one
  3. Foreverblowingbubbles

    £700M Welcome Boost For Build-To-Let Homes

    This. Glad I'm not the only one thinking this
  4. Foreverblowingbubbles

    Young people’s happiness hits lowest in a decade!

    That's a pretty callous view. People running businesses intrinsically have something to give a shit about, and a project they are focused on. That's at least something to be motivated by and feel a sense of achievement that can translate to happiness. Admittedly it can cause stress, but it's a good kind of stress Do you think 'young people' = children, so their lives are so simple by comparison? The idea that so many of our young adults feel hopeless is a terrible reflection on the society that has been created. it's generally the most go getting and optimistic period of life, if a house feels so totally out of reach that its not even worth working toward anymore, something has gone very very badly wrong. I'm not really sure how you can find that amusing. The house price crisis disproportionately affects the young, but yet I didn't detect an ounce of sarcasm in your post?
  5. Foreverblowingbubbles

    £700M Welcome Boost For Build-To-Let Homes

    I don't think self build is likely to become a big % of houses in the uk. In Europe people build kit houses, they're not genuine self build in the sense we think of here, and British style of brick housing doesn't really suit those kit houses. I agree self build tends to be best quality, but not sure we have the number of niche builders in the uk capable of scaling up to make a dent in the numbers, unless people start desiring to live in wood and panel houses. I've not researched it, that's purely gut feel but we don't have the brickies from what I can tell. Agree that market is more about debt than it is supply and demand, however btl debt is and has been the major driving force behind the market over last 10 years. Remove a chunk of btl demamd through replacing them with build to rent supply, and I think prices have to adjust to what genuine buyers can support as there will be no btl bid.
  6. Foreverblowingbubbles

    £700M Welcome Boost For Build-To-Let Homes

    There's only a finite supply of renters, so I would expect that for every build to rent unit that becomes occupied, it will (eventually, after some voids somewhere in the btl system) free an existing buy to let property to be released back to the owner occupied market. You see this already happening in student towns, btr has the potential to do that to large parts of the btl market I don't really see why people on here have a problem with build to rent. Genuine social housing construction would be preferable, but this is as close as we're likely to get. Sure it would be great if individuals also got incentives to build their own place, but that's not likely to bring on a new flood of supply in the way build to rent will. individuals would build detached homes, not blocks of units
  7. Foreverblowingbubbles

    £700M Welcome Boost For Build-To-Let Homes

    Something that's not been mentioned in the comments so far that is important here - the secret is in the name. BUILD to rent. The government does see the bigger picture. It seems they see it perfectly. If you think they are making a mistake, you're missing the point that the policies they have implemented are specifically to discourage the use (ie monopolising) of pre-existing housing stock as rental units via btl, because they want it going back into owner occupied hands. Instead they're encouraging new rental units to be added - specifically for the purpose of being rented out, so not monopolising or reducing owner occupied stock - by build to rent funds. If you parents (or whoever) want to invest in a build to rent fund, they are free to do so. They are also free to continue to try to create 'their pension' through buy to let... but they should have read the signs a few years ago that the system is no longer being weighted in their favour, and they need to assess whether its worth the effort when they can probably get better yield with no effort in other ways. Buy to letters have been keen to be seen as savvy business people. In that case, whilst I feel sorry for any individual who makes a mistake and find themselves in hard times as a result, they did make their own choices and knowingly go into business extracting rent out of other people. As arpeggio says above, this is a zero sum game - it adds no value, it merely extracts rent from the person who wasn't able to snatch the asset first. The government recognise this, and the danger it poses to society (and their political tenure). This is the 'bigger picture'. These changes are well signalled by the government, with years of warning. If your family are in trouble, I'm afraid they only have themselves to blame
  8. Foreverblowingbubbles

    Where to emigrate to, balancing housing, law, etc?

    Just to say, my experience coming to nz as a Brit is my expectation on the weather was lower than it actually is in reality. Auckland is sub tropical. The average daily high temp in mid winter is 15 degrees, with night average of 8. I have never seen frost in Auckland,and get through the winter with autumn jackets from the uk. If the sun is out in mid winter, you can generally sit outside and enjoy the sun in shorts and a t shirt. The sun is strong enough that it feels like a sunny April day back in the uk, even in mid winter. Admittedly, there are more days of rain than in the se uk (220 here vs only 106 in UK), but the weather is much more changeable from hour to hour (a-la "4 seasons in a day"). In practise, this means that even if it rains, you're likely to also see the sun for a few hours that day. It feels to me like you don't as often get days-and-days of set in grey skies like you do back home. The other few things new zealand has on aus... Security of water supply. They're not going to drain their aquifers. If you're playing tennis or whatever and your ball goes in the bush under a load of leaves, you just stick your hand in there. No snakes, no poisonous spiders. That's a plus! Few wildfires, and in general the summer is a more bearable heat. I was in Adelaide for Christmas 2 years ago, and it was something like 45 degrees. Here it rarely goes above 28 (but is humid, so feels more like 35) The other thing is, fewer Australians. Don't get me wrong, i love aus, but the place is racist as f* compared to here, and Aussie guys in particular are a nightmare in my experience. I have Brit friends in Sydney who've been there 15 years and still only really got a couple of good Aussie mates. They're hard to get past the bravado, and all the criticism of lack of intellectualism, sports interest, tall poppy syndrome that gets levelled at kiwis is just as bad in aus. But the level of racism! The whole country of Australia is founded on a history of racism really. The plight of the aboriginal people of aus is incredibly sad. In many months spent in aus, traveling quite extensively, I can't honestly say as I've ever seen, met or spoken to an aborigine. Maori people may be disadvantaged and in more poverty in nz, but they're a proud people; an integral part of the society, traditions and identity of nz. Though I'm not saying it's perfect, the treaty of waitangi did see that this country at least attempted to be founded on a coming together of people as equals. Nobody was 'conquered' or 'robbed' here at the foundation of this country. Maori retain many highly valuable rents on fishing, forestry, etc. In fact, Britain lost the war for New Zealand to the Maori (probably due to under commitment of troops due to India being more important). I think this contributes to the pride of the Maori people, and the position of them and other islanders in society here
  9. Foreverblowingbubbles

    Where to emigrate to, balancing housing, law, etc?

    Castle in transylvania for sale http://m.mondinion.com/Real_Estate_Listings/adid/106186/Romania--Alba--Zlatna--Castle_for_Sale/
  10. Foreverblowingbubbles

    Where to emigrate to, balancing housing, law, etc?

    Now that is an interesting choice! What are you doing? I spent some time in Tanzania and Zambia 15 years ago, and they seemed wonderful places. Didn't do business - I guess corruption is an issue, have you found it impacts everyday life? What is the cost of living, how much are you able to save?
  11. Foreverblowingbubbles

    New Zealand bans foreign buyers

    Hey, yeah and I think all the points made are completely valid legit criticisms. Luckily I move here reasonably wealthy, live in a good part of town and have choices/flexibility. Being stone broke is bad, which ever country you call home Having said which, if you made a blog just criticising the uk as not a great place to live, there are myriad criticisms that are as bad. There's no utopia, everywhere is what you make it I made a new thread for 'where to emigrate to', as I felt like a lot of this convo is going off topic from nz banning foreign buyers and how that's impacting house prices. Some discussions are of other country options. Apologies if there's already one, I searched briefly but didn't find one
  12. There's been a lively discussion on the nz banning foreign buyers thread about the best places, and pros and cons of moving over seas. People fleeing the uk are probably looking for some balance of: affordable and good quality housing, good education, reliable healthcare, rule of law/lack of corruption, job prospects, native language spoken, lifestyle, cultural stimulation, agreeable climate, political and natural stability, favourable tax laws, pre existing personal or cultural connections to the country, location relative to home. Where do people, on balance think are the best countries to emigrate to, and why? Or, is staying put in the uk actually the lesser of 2 evils?!
  13. Foreverblowingbubbles

    New Zealand bans foreign buyers

    I looked up the youth suicide rate, which was stated as 5 times that in the uk at 15 per 100k between the ages of 15-19, here https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-40284130 However I looked up uk suicide rate, and found that nz is not 5 times higher unless the 2 data sets aren't comparable. The ons states here https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/suicidebyoccupation/england2011to2015 that the suicide rate of men and women 20-65 is 12 per 100k, so that puts young adults in nz about 25% higher than all adults in the uk. If you look at farmers and other labourer type jobs in the uk, the suicide rate is much higher than average - and more % of jobs over here are that kind of nature Looking at the kiwi stats, 15 per 100k means between 15-19 years old, an individual has a 60/100k chance of committing suicide, which is 0.06%, or 1 in 1666 across a 4 year period. If you imagine this as a school of people going from gcse through to completing a levels, its about 1 suicide per 4 year cycle, with an intake across the 4 year period of 1666. The average secondary school in the uk is about 1000 students across 7 years, so essentially this would translate to 1 suicide amongst 15-19 year olds per 3 average sized secondary schools Clearly the rate being higher than the uk shows there's an issue (especially if it were 5 times, but I think that statement is wrong in the article posted). Child abuse, bullying, poverty, drugs, culture etc all must come in to the problem. Suicide is the biggest killer of young men here (higher than car crime), but however tragic it is for those families affected, the actual rate of suicide is still low when you look at the pure odds of it happening to your family. Actually, as this is quite off of the thread topic, I'm just wondering if we should start a 'where to emigrate to' thread, or similar, or is there one already?
  14. Foreverblowingbubbles

    New Zealand bans foreign buyers

    Sorry, my ex partner was a psychiatrist. I don't work in that field. Yes, early days. I agree fully with sentiment expressed, kiwis from what I can tell are unfriendly and passive aggressive. I have made some friends here, but they're from India, Taiwan, China, Brazil, columbia, UK, US, etc. The one kiwi I became friends with stabbed me in the back the worst that I've ever experienced... Don't want to go into it Youth suicide, I'm no expert at all. I would guess this is because there are a lot of terribly isolated small towns here, and this is a very conservative place. As a small society where everyone knows everyone, it's more conformist than I'm used to from the uk. My guess from seeing a bit of this society and the 'tall poppy' syndrome is that they pick on difference to weed out the non conformists and the people who stand out. If you're different, maybe a nerd, an emo kid, or just awkward or not sporty, or picked on for whatever reason, I imagine that the bullying is bad, and the small towns could mean that there's fewer people like you to connect with and be supported through becoming comfortable in your own skin
  15. Foreverblowingbubbles

    New Zealand bans foreign buyers

    The carribean is also pretty damned boring unless you want to spend the rest of life diving or fishing. I've been to cayman 3 times as I have a friend who works there so can stay at his (no hotel to pay). After you've done the few main tourist activities, there's nothing left to do but get pissed. No culture at all
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