IMupNorth Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 So it's fait accompli, thank god for that. Maybe you could also give us the lottery results for the next couple of years. Ahh, petty sarcasm from the lunatic fringe - just what I expected I just base my 'best guesses' on the facts and figures around me - thats why I've been saying soft landing for 10 months and why I'm saying it looks like it will be here for another 12 months. Well I've been saying that since Oct anyway - Feb/Mar will be the soonest before I can make an updated guess. You on the otherhand, are just that desperate wishing for a crash that you cannot contemplate any other outcome. Stop being small minded, and get on with your life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walktothewater Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Yes I do know what's going to happen to prices. I am in the process of buying right now & should be exchanging in mid January. go on humour me... whats your view of UK house prices going forward? Ahh, petty sarcasm from the lunatic fringe - just what I expected I just base my 'best guesses' on the facts and figures around me - thats why I've been saying soft landing for 10 months and why I'm saying it looks like it will be here for another 12 months. Well I've been saying that since Oct anyway - Feb/Mar will be the soonest before I can make an updated guess. You on the otherhand, are just that desperate wishing for a crash that you cannot contemplate any other outcome. Stop being small minded, and get on with your life. far enough... whats your view on UK property prices say 2-3 years out, 5yrs out... stagnation as far as the eye can see? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Ah yeah down the the "slope of hope" we go.... theres far superior returns to be had in nat gas, short-term bonds, gold, commodities etc..... have been for months now.... Couldn't agree more about the better returns, but this site seems to be about predicting a house price crash. My stock market investments have been doing very nicely ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Time to raise the rents. Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 go on humour me... whats your view of UK house prices going forward? GROWING. Grow.....Grow......Grow..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boom_and_bust Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 (edited) Hi Sam, I am here. Apologies for the delay, I can't always patricipate instantly, hence why sometimes the voids in posts. I had in no way envisaged that my posts seem to dwell so deeply into your psyche! I hope you will not start stalking me. I can't comment on this story yet. I know you wait for my lead but you must be patient until I can digest this and draw some conclusions on what the author has to say and if I consider these findings to contribute to market trends. I checked your link but it was maybe two sentences quoted on the Halifax website. I have not seen the full article, I don't use capital economics myself so I don't have access to their research myself. I don't know what they have said until I see it myself and have some time to digest it. In the meantime, PM me any other issues you consider relevant and I will include them in my report findings at that time. There are still several issues to grapple with within the economy and one of those that has changed this week is a draft summary circulated in parliment about the real risks and signs of deflation emerging now in sectors of the UK economy. If that is where CE are pointing towards, with government reaction to faltering business and industrial output during next year (think interest rate cuts), that is where I am guessing they are going with that. I will get back to you as soon as is possible, within the limits of time I have. Kind regards, Boomer BTW, just to clarify your Bull-Bear thing you direct at me (as I am neither a present or future buyer or seller of property, at least in the UK), I will remind you of my recent post ; Hi, I would agree with that. Just as I think inflation in the property market per annumn is a pretty healthy thing in broad terms. There is a broader framework of several influences within this basket case we call the uk property market, not just one individual target, we all participate in it one way or another. When hyperinflation hits any sector of an economy, whether that is houses or bread, that is always destructive. History has shown us that, it is the stated (and failed) aim of the BoE. It is difficult to entirely fault one individual who is working within that system of hyperinflation. Boomer Edited December 21, 2005 by boom_and_bust Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 go on humour me... whats your view of UK house prices going forward? far enough... whats your view on UK property prices say 2-3 years out, 5yrs out... stagnation as far as the eye can see? All, I can best guess is the next 12 months - too many things can change 2 or more years out. Its not hard to envisage scenario's where prices crash or equally prices might escalate rapidly. eg lets suppose we converge even more with Europe and we join the Euro. IR's drop to 2.25% - whats most likely to happen - Japan or Ireland ? What happens if Gordon decides we want target inflation to be 3% or more ? Whilst stability exists in the wider economy, house prices are likely to remain where they are - its not rocket science is it ? Look for the events that are likely to change stability, then make your predictions from there. None of the widely held views on here (ie rising IRs, massive increasing unemployment, massive unaffordable debts) are liekly to happen to the extent which is going to trigger a house price crash. The most likely thing to change is that IRs may go down 0.25% in the spring. Unlikely in my judgement to cause a crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
membrane Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 What is all this talk of if house prices crash ? Where I am (Salisbury) average houses have lost about £15,000 in the last year & there's no sign of it stopping. This to me is a crash in progress. I am effectively £15,000 richer this year by doing nothing in the last 12 months. Maybe it's just my area but every week I check the local area on rightmove (with same set of search criteria) & I've seen the same old houses dropping month by month. This is all the proof I need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Hrm, prices are already down more than 5% round here since the summer. Yes indeed-- and didn't the Deputy PM's Office show that Milton Keynes was down 7%? I really wonder if anyone knows what is going on with so many contradictory reports being churned out daily. The only REAL evidence is the anecdotal if it is based on hard facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancypants Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Capital Economics have already proved that they are no dab hand at the whole forecasting game in the past, and I would not expect them to be any better in the future. correct. They were wrong before, so they are likely to be wrong this time. Perhaps constantly destined to be making bad calls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainbow Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 David Smith (Sunday Times) wrote at the weekend that Capital Economics were going to drop their minus 20% prediction. I think this is sensible of CE as they were always going to get poked in the eye by the likes of Smith, who basically just sits on the fence and prattles on about "soft landings" without ever putting a figure on what a "soft landing" is. Is it 10% down, 5% down, no change,5% up, 10%up,etc, etc? No lose situation for the likes of Smith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Time to raise the rents. Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 What is all this talk of if house prices crash ? Where I am (Salisbury) average houses have lost about £15,000 in the last year & there's no sign of it stopping. This to me is a crash in progress. I am effectively £15,000 richer this year by doing nothing in the last 12 months. Maybe it's just my area but every week I check the local area on rightmove (with same set of search criteria) & I've seen the same old houses dropping month by month. This is all the proof I need. Yes indeed-- and didn't the Deputy PM's Office show that Milton Keynes was down 7%? I really wonder if anyone knows what is going on with so many contradictory reports being churned out daily. The only REAL evidence is the anecdotal if it is based on hard facts. Sorry, but I didn't see Salisbury & Milton Keynes mentioned. I thought they meant the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Sorry, but I didn't see Salisbury & Milton Keynes mentioned. I thought they meant the UK. TTRTR I know a buyer in SW12 who recently admitted to me that he has lost at least 5% over the past year. But he's in it for the long term...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
membrane Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 TTRTR I'll try & make it simple enough so that even you can understand. I know you can turn water into wine unfortunatly I can't, so I have to play with the cards i'm dealt, I work & live in Salisbury so that is all i'm worried about. If i'd listened to you I would be a lot worse off than this time 12 months ago (I could of taken my money out of my FTSE tracker & bought & house under your recommendation ..... I didn't & feel a lot better for it) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Time to raise the rents. Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 TTRTR I'll try & make it simple enough so that even you can understand. I know you can turn water into wine unfortunatly I can't, so I have to play with the cards i'm dealt, I work & live in Salisbury so that is all i'm worried about. If i'd listened to you I would be a lot worse off than this time 12 months ago (I could of taken my money out of my FTSE tracker & bought & house under your recommendation ..... I didn't & feel a lot better for it) Well I don't remember recommending you buy. But I do want to point out that had I listened to you lot, I would be about 300k worse off than I am now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
membrane Posted December 21, 2005 Share Posted December 21, 2005 Well I don't remember recommending you buy. But I do want to point out that had I listened to you lot, I would be about 300k worse off than I am now. How EXACTLY ????????????? & If your doing so well why are you living in Sweden, I know I've lived there. There really is more to life than money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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