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House Price Crash Forum


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About walktothewater

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  1. Broadly agree. Though Id say peak was summer 06. And to put a very point on it August 06 appears to be the precise moment. People were sleeping in their cars overnight to put down deposits on properties in the giant Adamstown development in west Dublin spring of 06. The developer was increasing prices as the queue progressed through the door! Supply of rentals has skyrocketed in recent months as the “traditional autumn selling season” flopped. It has all of a sudden become a renters dream. Developers are apparently colluding to keep whole blocks of new apartments from flooding the marke
  2. I don’t know the situation in Stoneybatter. But I do know rents vary little across the city centre, e.g. the same 1-bed apt is probably €100-150/mth more in Ranelagh than compared to say Phibsboro, whereas asking prices can be up to 50% different between those two locations. Make no mistake though, the market here is very quickly unravelling. It’s fascinating to watch.
  3. I can assure you actual prices are falling faster than the ESRI/PTSB index – that index measures asking prices. And rents are coming under pressure as supply swamps the market. You can now rent a small 2-bed house in the city centre for <€1000/mth. http://www.daft.ie/searchrental.daft?search=Search+%BB&s[cc_id]=ct1&s[a_id][0]=ga3&s[mnp]=&s[mxp]=1200&s[bd_no]=&s[pt_id]=2&s[move_in_date]=0&s[lease]=&s[furn]=0&s[search_type]=rental&s[transport]=&s[advanced]=&s[price_per_room]=&s[refreshmap]=1&limit=10&id=512275 This was unhear
  4. Three words: market - clearing - prices. The vast majority of people simply do not understand that value is determined by the price that the marginal buyer is willing to pay. Market clearing prices for some properties, today in commuterland Dublin, are probably 66% of what they were Summer '06. Without those massive discounts there are NO BUYERS. I have made this point endless number of times and so many still dont grasp it. We are getting a real world demonstration of what economists (proper ones) call a Liquidity Trap...
  5. Agree. The peculiarities of Ireland suggest that a complete freeze up of the market, a la the CDO debacle of July/August is possible. That is, there are simply no buyers for particular properties. If there’s no buyer for what you’re selling the market value is zero. I really don’t see why we can’t see catastrophic drops in market clearing prices in some areas, Adamstown, the scene of last Springs panic “must get on ladder at any cost”, is one location that comes to mind.
  6. There is no moment of being “right”. It’s a slope, with much historical revisionism along the way (“everyone knew” etc.) If you havent bought and are waiting to buy, the “being right” bit is having avoided massive debt and bought in 2009/2010 at a knock-down price with your large downpayment.
  7. "House prices fall 100k" This was the headline in last Fridays Evening Herald – the No.1 Dublin daily tabloid (scroll to end of 1st page) http://www.thepropertypin.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3227 It is getting gruesome very very quickly here – sentiment that is. Prices are probably off 10-15% since Summer 06 peak, but the psychology has done a 180. The intense herd mentality of us Irish that saw the boom morph into a genuine panic buying spree Spring ’06 is shifting the opposite direction. This can happen in a small population of 4.2m where everyone is intensely watching everyone elses mo
  8. “But is wage inflation going up at the same or even greater rate?” For private sector not for about 2 years now. For the public sector yes, for now. I wouldn’t bet on this continuing much longer though. “Doesn't wage inflation and regular inflation (CPI/RPI) have to increase by the same amount in order for you to just break even on your spending power?” Yes. Wage inflation > price inflation is what made property such a run away success for the 50+ generation. The Chinese will ensure that doesnt happen again.
  9. First things first. What’s inflation? Official Irish CPI is running ~5%. I’d reckon for Joe Punter it’s closer to Eurozone M3 growth, say ~10%. At rates of paper printing such as these it wouldn’t take very long for the real price to come down by 40%, even if nominal prices stay constant. Speaking of prices: We’re seeing an immediate gapping down of the market right now – UK observers would do well to learn from the implosion happening here, “right before your eyes” as it were. Today’s market clearing prices are perhaps an average of 15% off those of June 2006. Granted these prices are
  10. Good Lord, wonders will never cease… Kelly’s report now makes RTE headlines! http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0703/houses.html
  11. “Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years.” http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/...um_SA_Kelly.pdf
  12. Wait a second, fairs fair, PG did indeed call Q1 2007. I remember his technical analysis “proving” it. And if I remember correctly he was widely poo poo’d
  13. even with a mediocre return off of £200k, securing a roof over your head aint no problem.. anywhere...
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