rantnrave Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Our September #HPI shows a monthly increase in England & Wales of 1.0%. Full HPI out 9.30am on 28 October http://ow.ly/TqBXM... ...The average September #houseprice in England and Wales is £186,553 http://ow.ly/TqCj1... ...The average price of property in England and Wales has gone up £9,393 since September 2014 http://ow.ly/TqCGL Full report at the end of the month. How much does Rightmove say Asking Prices have increased by over the last 12 months I wonder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 (edited) so land reg says annual is £9393 to £186553, therefore annual increase = 5.3% monthly as stated 1.0% http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/september-2015 monthly 0.9% annual 6.4% average 294,834 Edited October 17, 2015 by pipllman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Seriously!! How the f*** is this happening Prices are set at the margin with an ever dwindling number of transactions probably. Would be good to see the volume figure. Basically for now there's still a bunch of idiots getting into buy to let intermingled with a smattering of young couples convincing themselves that a 300k 1 bed flat is their forever home. Which its very likely to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Prices are set at the margin with an ever dwindling number of transactions probably. Would be good to see the volume figure. Basically for now there's still a bunch of idiots getting into buy to let intermingled with a smattering of young couples convincing themselves that a 300k 1 bed flat is their forever home. Which its very likely to be. volume depends on which part of government you ask - and neither can give a satisfactory reason for the differences in the data sets land reg Pages 12 - 13 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/463599/HPIReport20150924.pdf "In the months March 2015 to June 2015, sales volumes averaged 65,550 transactions per month. This is a decrease from the same period a year earlier, when sales volumes averaged 73,985 per month. " hmrc https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/461354/UK_Tables_Sep_2015__cir_.pdf The provisional seasonally adjusted UK property transaction count for August 2015 was 106,480 residential and 10,880 non-residential transactions. Residential transactions The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential property transactions increased by 3.1% between July 2015 and August 2015. This month’s seasonally adjusted figure is 5.7% higher compared with the same month last year. Chart 1A shows the historic time series for residential property transactions. For August 2015 the number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 7.4% lower compared with July 2015. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 1.9% lower than in August 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 volume depends on which part of government you ask - and neither can give a satisfactory reason for the differences in the data sets land reg Pages 12 - 13 of https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/463599/HPIReport20150924.pdf "In the months March 2015 to June 2015, sales volumes averaged 65,550 transactions per month. This is a decrease from the same period a year earlier, when sales volumes averaged 73,985 per month. " hmrc https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/461354/UK_Tables_Sep_2015__cir_.pdf The provisional seasonally adjusted UK property transaction count for August 2015 was 106,480 residential and 10,880 non-residential transactions. Residential transactions The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential property transactions increased by 3.1% between July 2015 and August 2015. This months seasonally adjusted figure is 5.7% higher compared with the same month last year. Chart 1A shows the historic time series for residential property transactions. For August 2015 the number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 7.4% lower compared with July 2015. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 1.9% lower than in August 2014. Thanks - was walking home so didnt check the site myself. 'Seasonally adjusting' data sounds like a lovely was to massage a statistic whichever way is required. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Thanks - was walking home so didnt check the site myself. 'Seasonally adjusting' data sounds like a lovely was to massage a statistic whichever way is required. indeed to be fair though, they do also quote the non adjusted numbers - but they take a bit of finding Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 And if you can also 'correct' last months figure then you can actually have price rises every month even when prices are falling every month. Eg. Last month reported as 100, corrected this month to be 98 ... this month is 99 so a rise from 98 to 99 even though last month was 100, rinse and repeat and/or do some 'seasonal' adjusting. Haha - yes indeed. I pointed an example of this out to someone i work with who didn't believe that the land reg, rightmove etc would ever do such a thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Prices are set at the margin with an ever dwindling number of transactions probably. Would be good to see the volume figure. Basically for now there's still a bunch of idiots getting into buy to let intermingled with a smattering of young couples convincing themselves that a 300k 1 bed flat is their forever home. Which its very likely to be. How did we get from average house prices costing £186,553 to a one bedroomed flat costing 300k? Why don't we discuss a 10 bedroomed mansion costing 50p or any other price I can imagine? If an average price house costs £186,553 I would expect a first time buyer house to cost slightly less no? Not saying the world isn't f**k up just saying lets look at the figures. And yes I have been drinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 How did we get from average house prices costing £186,553 to a one bedroomed flat costing 300k? Why don't we discuss a 10 bedroomed mansion costing 50p or any other price I can imagine? If an average price house costs £186,553 I would expect a first time buyer house to cost slightly less no? Not saying the world isn't f**k up just saying lets look at the figures. And yes I have been drinking Easy now. Just making an observation about my local market and the reality for the ftbs transacting in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 some might point out that there are regional variations in prices so a 1 bed flat in an expensive part of London can cost more than a castle in a cheap part of Scotland http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48113410.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46863553.html hence the average is just that, an average Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Easy now. Just making an observation about my local market and the reality for the ftbs transacting in it. Yes you must live in the south east all prices down there are crazy. I live in Gloucester and the prices are about average. Just some times when I hear about some youngster saying they cant afford a £400,000 house I think. I cant afford a £400,000 house too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 some might point out that there are regional variations in prices so a 1 bed flat in an expensive part of London can cost more than a castle in a cheap part of Scotland http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-48113410.html http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46863553.html hence the average is just that, an average Very good example. Unbelievable difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Seriously!! How the f*** is this happening +10000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
65243 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Relax - they use "seasonal" adjustments and "mix" adjustments, and I absolutely guarantee they only ever adjust upwards. They "revise" figures after the event - that's always downwards, in other words they grab headlines with high numbers, and then quietly bring them a bit closer to reality when no one is looking. And anyway, the LR figures are hopelessly out of date by the time they're published. in other words relying on those stats is like driving by looking in a rear-view mirror which is made from fairground distorting glass through the wrong end of a poor quality telescope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 No 65243 I can guarantee that property prices in my areas of choice are going up and have being doing so for the past couple of years. Nothing would make me happier than a good old conspiracy where prices are being fiddled, but that is not the case. There's no reason to believe prices are being fiddled. AFAIK transacations peaked Q2 2014. Transaction volumes always peak before prices do. Generally, a year or so of rising prices after the peak in transactions is unexceptional. More so given the range of market-rigging subsidies Gidiot has laid out for purchasers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Prices are set at the margin with an ever dwindling number of transactions probably. Would be good to see the volume figure. Basically for now there's still a bunch of idiots getting into buy to let intermingled with a smattering of young couples convincing themselves that a 300k 1 bed flat is their forever home. Which its very likely to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 No 65243 I can guarantee that property prices in my areas of choice are going up and have being doing so for the past couple of years. Nothing would make me happier than a good old conspiracy where prices are being fiddled, but that is not the case. Just because muppets are asking silly numbers for their four walls, so what? You need to consider sold prices and sales volumes as well for a more realistic picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) Just because muppets are asking silly numbers for their four walls, so what? You need to consider sold prices and sales volumes as well for a more realistic picture.best forget houses for a while.something will give sooner rather than later and the 2 nd collapse will happen.it's exactly like the railway mania and the tulip madness. I can't wait to see them make am example out of some of the fraudsters and those in government who are supporting them. wake me up when the headline is, house prices collapse until then sales volumes will keep dropping. the figures are meaningless now if the sales volumes are collapsing. just hope your granny's not cashed in her pension to invest in this lunacy. Edited October 18, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.