billybong Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) From the mail/thisismoney link above (leading thinktank etc). The price of the average home will more than triple to a staggering £780,000 by 2040, according to a leading think tank. The Policy Exchange calculated that the average first-time buyer, currently aged 32, will be paying nearly £800,000 for a home in 26 years time, based on the current average house price of £244,000. Sounds like a typical thinktank stuffed chock full of VI corporate/political types etc - so unbiased analysis won't be its middle name. https:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_Exchange The average home might or might not be £800,000 by then but for sure it will most likely feel like it to the average person the way the country is being run these days (by all the main parties). Edited August 13, 2015 by billybong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Do you say the same for someone who moved from London to the provinces? Life goes on. it does don`t you feel sold out though , look what the system did to you made you move thousands of miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nnails Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 last looked at house 6months ago. brought the house for 3k less than 2005 with all furniture and new fitted kitchen. Its also in town i want to live in. I know i was very lucky and if i missed this one i would not have brought. i own 50% and i am on course to pay 10% off in first year. hopefully i will have nice cushion before world gets finanical sticky again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) That can change very very quickly, when an event occurs, when the music stops. Safehaven buyers paying silly prices may run dry. Then what? Values are set at the margin, between buyers and sellers - not those just living in £1m valued houses.. houses not even on the market. Houses rose in value on the way up for Kilo Charlie and Sam, Bucks. They didn't do a thing for the value gain. Other buyers and sellers transacted at higher prices over the months and years. They will fall in exactly the same way - and perhaps the most frothyness of the high value falling very quickly in any slight change in he market. Very few cash out at 90% peak in a market. It can be a cascade value fall between very few buyers and sellers. just because i state it does not mean i believe it , a clever man will run with the sheep and then do a runner just before the slaughter house put it this way would you feel safer having 1 million quid in a property in london or a greek bank , greek bank fails £1 mill gone , london drops a few quid lost but still owns an asset , i wonder if any syrian cash arrived in london ? governement are not stupid how ever much we give them credit for , they penned in the sheep BTL crowd ready for slaughter who`s to say they wont do the same with foreign money coming in , and actually do it. hmrc was investigating accounts 7-8 years ago for british nationals with accounts abroad , i wonder where that cash ended up. Edited August 13, 2015 by longgone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 i don`t rent , and don`t own special protected status ?? I did post, 'If I'm understanding you correctly.' i would only class members looking for year 2000 prices and lower idiots saying that there are many members who can read a graph and quote averages , not sure where they sit lets hope there expiry date does not creep up sooner than later while waiting . i think the old timers are blinded by there past probably the memories of paying 15% interest rates and having john major as PM i think many underestimate how far the system will go to keep going, not that it is a system just a overload of information presented to you in a manor to keep certain members rich and others poor . a bit like an abacus for a toddler Who is doing the underestimating from your point-of-view? HPCers who think <2000 prices (or selective opportunities for such value) in prime are possible? Or are you suggesting HPCers underestimate how far the system will keep going to protect the asset wealth of the asset rich? Things can change - suddenly - and it can come as a shock to those who owned the high value assets and those who had days before, been paying ridic prices to keep them going even higher in value. I'm just open to that possibility, rather than believing authorities/system/market can keep things going one way forever and ever. By 1929, the Connecticut suburbs of New York were already so jammed with commuters who had grown rich in the bull market that choice properties were selling for as much as a million dollars. As Jim Grant points out, this was actually the top of the market for that type of suburban property. The million-dollar houses in Greenwich of 1929 "changed hands for as little as $75,000 in the 1930s." Suburbia began with a migration of the rich. Throughout the entire migration period, ending with the recession of 1958, new suburbanites tended to have higher incomes than those left behind within the city boundaries.- James Dale Davidson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 don`t you feel sold out though , look what the system did to you made you move thousands of miles away I'm back to my rental accommodation in Northampton in early September - maybe you'll think higher of me now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) I did post, 'If I'm understanding you correctly.' Who is doing the underestimating from your point-of-view? HPCers who think <2000 prices (or selective opportunities for such value) in prime are possible? Or are you suggesting HPCers underestimate how far the system will keep going to protect the asset wealth of the asset rich? Things can change - suddenly - and it can come as a shock to those who owned the high value assets and those who had days before, been paying ridic prices to keep them going even higher in value. I'm just open to that possibility, rather than believing authorities/system/market can keep things going one way forever and ever. assets have proven to always go up over specific timelines track prices from 1970 to now omitting the rubbish purchased by idiots who have no respect for money and just see monthly payments. if the correct ones are purchased they will always go up the same rule does not apply to everything , we seem to be getting confused on that all i know is there are members who are expecting an all out crash back to 1990 levels , good luck them while they wait, Edited August 13, 2015 by longgone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) I'm back to my rental accommodation in Northampton in early September - maybe you'll think higher of me now! rent is dead money so was just a holiday then , did not really turn your back on the system Edited August 13, 2015 by longgone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) all i know is there are members who are expecting an all out crash back to 1990 levels , good luck them while they wait, For us non-'old-timers' it's not an expectation, it's a desperate hope. Because if it doesn't happen, then my generation will be locked out of decent housing. Far from things getting better, living standards are much worse than in my parents' day. In one, maybe two generations we've gone from the age of council housing and a single wage buying a decent family home, to requiring two high earners just to get a look-in for a flat. I couldn't care less about how people's assets and investments are doing. Housing is a far wider issue than that. Everyone needs a decent, secure place to sleep. The fact all our money and all our hard work can't provide that is shameful. If people want investments they should buy shares. Leave housing for people to live in. Edited August 13, 2015 by irrationalactor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 assets have proven to always go up over specific timelines track prices from 1970 to now omitting the rubbish purchased by idiots who have no respect for money and just see monthly payments. if the correct ones are purchased they will always go up the same rule does not apply to everything , we seem to be getting confused on that all i know is there are members who are expecting an all out crash back to 1990 levels , good luck them while they wait, There could be a lot of cold-war inflation + other rounds of tech/Brown/QE inflation thereafter, to be given back by the markets, from house price inflation, and the house values around us now, including in prime. Values are set at the margin between sellers and buyers, and prices they transact at, affect wider market, setting values there "If the correct ones are purchased they will always go up" ?" My entire point is real estate runs on money, and a time could come when money is tighter and hyperinflated house values, from the old bubble world (NOW) are left under siege. "If the correct ones are purchased" ?" London is up some 50% since 2011 on buyers and sellers paying ever higher prices, month after month, year after year, at the margin. Can fall on same principles, at the margin.. if buying side tightens for money, and other sellers realise they have to accept lower prices... and that could be a cascade. Include me in the members who believe 1990 value for housing, is possible. Perhaps not reflected in wider indices, but for selective opportunities.. a land plot etc. Having money to take advantage of a distressed opportunity. All depends on the money situation globally, and how long London remains attractive to slushy money (tightening now with Stamp Duty at higher end, ATED, BTL tax-changes etc.). Markets can change, and it's complacency to believe it's all locked in now. I would rather wait, comfortable in position, for an opportunity - waiting is not wasting your life as a non-owner. I have bought several plots of land over the years for development. I purchased an old shack with no permission on the south coast for 40K in 1989 and gained permission for a pair of semi-detached chalet bungalows. 15months later having completed that project and sold them on and made a tidy sum I purchased a very similar plot same size but with outline for 115,000 and used the same drawings for the detailed application that was passed immediately using the other sites permission as a precedence. The recession hit, and the bank revalued the site I had paid 115,000 for at 25,000 During the recession, you could not give a plot of land away, it would cost more to build a house than the house was worth on the open market, and that did not include the land prices. Therefore land was essentially worthless. I had seven days notice to repay 400k in the last recession, which comes as a bit of a shock. But business is business, and the banks will tell you, that if you cant sell it, they are only too happy to sell it for you. Another property I was building at the time was valued off plan at 300K that was valued by the bank at 150K which is less than the cost of the build let alone the land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveinHope Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 (edited) I expect the average house price to fall back to 2003 prices around 2018-2020. About a 40% fall from the peak. I might be wrong. If prices do as I anticipate, I may or may not buy. It will still depend upon what is the best strategy at the time. Edited August 13, 2015 by LiveinHope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandwiches33 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 For us non-'old-timers' it's not an expectation, it's a desperate hope. Because if it doesn't happen, then my generation will be locked out of decent housing. Far from things getting better, living standards are much worse than in my parents' day. In one, maybe two generations we've gone from the age of council housing and a single wage buying a decent family home, to requiring two high earners just to get a look-in for a flat. I couldn't care less about how people's assets and investments are doing. Housing is a far wider issue than that. Everyone needs a decent, secure place to sleep. The fact all our money and all our hard work can't provide that is shameful. If people want investments they should buy shares. Leave housing for people to live in. Yes this! Great post. Adam Smith said something similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 For us non-'old-timers' it's not an expectation, it's a desperate hope. Because if it doesn't happen, then my generation will be locked out of decent housing. Far from things getting better, living standards are much worse than in my parents' day. In one, maybe two generations we've gone from the age of council housing and a single wage buying a decent family home, to requiring two high earners just to get a look-in for a flat. I couldn't care less about how people's assets and investments are doing. Housing is a far wider issue than that. Everyone needs a decent, secure place to sleep. The fact all our money and all our hard work can't provide that is shameful. If people want investments they should buy shares. Leave housing for people to live in. i`m not an old timer if you call 37 old i agree living standards are dire really compared with wages , what i am hoping is land can be released to self builders for a decent price , this would suit me down to the ground , i have the cash to build a nice house but no good without the land , round my way you need to be a millionaire for a basic 4 bed place , years ago this type of house was available for someone on a decent but not overly achievable wage , now you would need to be pulling in 6k a month just for the mortgage after tax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 so was just a holiday then , did not really turn your back on the system I seem to be turning my back on the system regularly. I don't mind it being where it is - if it doesn't mind me turning my back on it regularly (no offence intended to the system, just the way it goes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I seem to be turning my back on the system regularly. I don't mind it being where it is - if it doesn't mind me turning my back on it regularly (no offence intended to the system, just the way it goes). you have migrants to feed , the system needs you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 you have migrants to feed , the system needs you I've probably spent half of the last 7 years in Thailand. Sorry to disappoint you. What's your situation? You say you don't rent and don't own? Must mean you're at home with mum and dad? Or.....? Do tell, don't be shy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted August 14, 2015 Author Share Posted August 14, 2015 So, to recapp, no feckers viewing. Thread closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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