Surely All You Renters Wil Fuel Btl?

[dogbox]

Hi, Dogbox. I always like your posts, so full of spite, but missing the big picture.

The big question...

What were the multiples? Nowhere near the 6 or 7 or 8 times salary that is the usual now. Also, you quite sensibly bought when interest rates were above trend. Would you buy now? I seriously doubt it.

The way bearish types view the world is simply a function of thier interpreation and response.

In other words, your minds create calamity when there is none. Its all down to perception.

Look, have you ever met a health & woe munger? I have. She works in the building opposite.

Let me expain; My life is just as hard as hers, yet I do not tell her all my worries and problems. However, every time I see her she fills me in on the latest 'disaster' in her life. She actually beleives she is hard done by. For example someone she vaguely knew died recently. She relayed this to me and went into great depth about the emmotional strain upon her and how hard her life is.

She is always the same. Always her life is a disaster zone, BUT IT IS'NT. It's no different to the life most of us have but unlike her we don't wallow and play the victim.

My aim here is to try and get bears to see thier lot through different eyes and understand that thier personaility is the only real problem.

So the trough was around 1994 and you bought in 1991. With hindsight, was that the best move, albeit you were being optimistic and not whinging, if you could have bought the same thing or somewhere nearer to your home town for rather less two years later? Presumably you held on to it for a good few years and it all worked out but that is not my point.

Why do you measure everthing in ££s?

I just got on and bought. I enjoyed the home and sold it in 2001 for a tidy profit.

I can honestly say I am not at all aware prices in my area wnet down after I bought. I do not recall any property in my road selling for less than the sum I paid. Another bear 'textbook economics' muddle no doubt.

[London Landlady]

People stop owning houses for a bunch of different reasons - death divorce etc but can you see how an FTB would find the situation "cruel and unusual" and the gloating of many of the propertied posters particularly unpleasant?

If you sold to rent and didn't have the success you thought you might (back to backed into TMTs in 2001 for example) then I would take your point.

Alternatively if you STRd 3 years ago in London and dumped your profit on the stock market you would be sitting even prettier than a "smuggy" now.

I am not really referring to the young FTB's but the posters who are 30-40 and say they can't afford to buy now - but clearly most likely could have 10 years ago but chose not to.

Bulls do not come on here to gloat - but they are challenged continuously for facts and therefore, when they give them, the bears get upset.

The bulls don't keep demanding details of people's personal circumstances.

[beenhearingthisforyears]

People crammed into small living spaces is a big issue under discussion for public /environmental health policy both here and in Europe. I'm guessing that there may be legislation to prevent unscrupulous landlords not concerned with basic living standards in the future, and to reduce the burden from this on the NHS. Here's some links

http://www.homeless.org.uk/db/20040514133218/view

http://www.londonhousing.gov.uk/doc.asp?doc=12760&cat=1658

http://www.ehj-online.com/archive/2000/march2005/march9.html

From the last

"The proposed changes to the standard have prompted fresh research into the effects of overcrowding, which have shown links with stomach cancer, meningitis, h. pylori infection, respiratory conditions in children and TB for adults. There is also evidence to suggest that overcrowding in childhood affects aspects of adult health. "

But the Poles i know are happy(ish) with the situation. (i did some research as wanted to know who was renting all the rooms in my local BTl area) Yes they share rooms, but they know it isn't for ever and are happy to save money to send home. And yes they do send money home but they still buy food here etc, etc. And compared with freezing conditions this time of year in Poland, they seem very pleased to be in Uk. Many work split shifts so to them overcrowding is not an issue. (just going on the ones i talked to @ local factories who just happened to be central/Eastern European)

Edited November 30, 2005 by beenhearingthisforyears

[Scooter]

YOU SAID "Why do you measure everthing in ££s?

I just got on and bought. I enjoyed the home and sold it in 2001 for a tidy profit.

I can honestly say I am not at all aware prices in my area wnet down after I bought. I do not recall any property in my road selling for less than the sum I paid. Another bear 'textbook economics' muddle no doubt."

You also said it was "hard and worrying" I think. This does not make you sound like a carefree owner at all.

Overall, you seem to have chosen a very emotional way to proceed, by effectively saying I want it now and I do not care about the (financial) sense or otherwise. Entirely up to the individual but my £££ are hard earned and I do not relish handing them to someone with a historically unrealistic idea of what their property is worth simply for the pleasure of instant or early gratification.

Edited November 30, 2005 by Scooter

[Pedro]

But the Poles i know are happy(ish) with the situation. (i did some research as wanted to know who was renting all the rooms in my local BTl area) Yes they share rooms, but they know it isn't for ever and are happy to save money to send home. And yes they do send money home but they still buy food here etc, etc. And compared with freezing conditions this time of year in Poland, they seem very pleased to be in Uk. Many work split shifts so to them overcrowding is not an issue. (just going on the ones i talked to @ local factories who just happened to be central/Eastern European)

Ok - maybe you're a good LL and actually care, and would do something if there were conditions in your properties which would adversely affect the health of your tenants. I don't know about you. The point is the Government can't really rely on the 'goodwill' of landlords to ensure their tenants have a reasonable standard of accomodation (if only life were so simple, and everyone was nice to each other!), so it looks like they might just do something about it (i.e. make it illegal to rent overcrowded properties).

IMO the argument that the standard of living in one country is 'better' than some other atrocious standard of living is not a sufficiently good argument for denying people a reasonable quality of life.

Your tenants may be 'happy' with the situation, but they may not be microbiologist / toxicologists / medics and they may not be aware of the health risks of overcrowding. As you'll see overcrowding has been scientifically linked with some very specific ailments - including TB - there is a reason TB is on the rise in many Western countries, and it's not just down to influx of immigrants - it's also down to public health issues e.g. overcrowding. Of course, communicable diseases affect rich and poor alike - which is about the best thing that can be said about them I suppose!

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Ok - maybe you're a good LL and actually care, and would do something if there were conditions in your properties which would adversely affect the health of your tenants. I don't know about you. The point is the Government can't really rely on the 'goodwill' of landlords to ensure their tenants have a reasonable standard of accomodation (if only life were so simple, and everyone was nice to each other!), so it looks like they might just do something about it (i.e. make it illegal to rent overcrowded properties).

IMO the argument that the standard of living in one country is 'better' than some other atrocious standard of living is not a sufficiently good argument for denying people a reasonable quality of life.

Your tenants may be 'happy' with the situation, but they may not be microbiologist / toxicologists / medics and they may not be aware of the health risks of overcrowding. As you'll see overcrowding has been scientifically linked with some very specific ailments - including TB - there is a reason TB is on the rise in many Western countries, and it's not just down to influx of immigrants - it's also down to public health issues e.g. overcrowding. Of course, communicable diseases affect rich and poor alike - which is about the best thing that can be said about them I suppose!

agree with your points - and by the way just to clarify i am NOT a landlord - i just have one property which i have mortgage on.

I read some of the overcrowding reports and obviously there are differing levels of overcrowding - a case study on one site showed children 3/4 per single room and others sleeping in kitchens - and sure everyone would agree that this is unacceptable.

The Poles i spoke to were 2 per room in single beds or one may sleep in the lounge if other mate was "entertaining" !

they honestly seemed pretty happy and ok about it and were earning good money with OT etc. (average rent they paid was £50 per week per person or £65 inclusive of all bills.....bet the heaters are on max 24/7 in those properties) One factory i went to was poulty packing plant for supermarkets so obv, if bird flu scares takes hold they could be out of work! and after xmas "rush" sure OT will be cut. These men expalined they are used to hard work and "challenging" conditions and of course i am generalizing but can only go on the ones i spoke to.

Edited November 30, 2005 by beenhearingthisforyears

[Pedro]

agree with your points - and by the way just to clarify i am NOT a landlord - i just have one property which i have mortgage on.

I read some of the overcrowding reports and obviously there are differing levels of overcrowding - a case study on one site showed children 3/4 per single room and others sleeping in kitchens - and sure everyone would agree that this is unacceptable.

The Poles i spoke to were 2 per room in single beds or one may sleep in the lounge if other mate was "entertaining" !

they honestly seemed pretty happy and ok about it and were earning good money with OT etc. (average rent they paid was £50 per week per person or £65 inclusive of all bills.....bet the heaters are on max 24/7 in those properties) One factory i went to was poulty packing plant for supermarkets so obv, if bird flu scares takes hold they could be out of work! and after xmas "rush" sure OT will be cut. These men expalined they are used to hard work and "challenging" conditions and of course i am generalizing but can only go on the ones i spoke to.

Yes, fair enough. I wasn't try to have a go at you - just that I think this is quite relevant to the issue of immigrant housing. Everyone seems to think they'll 'prop up' BTL, but they obviously can't afford to rent on their own & many immigrants do seem to be housed in pretty appalling conditions... but obviously not all (thank goodness).

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

OK point taken.

However, I did post originally a counter argument on a thread about BTL & how it was all going belly up.

So as of now out of 425 posts and 3 weeks of solid trolling you posted 1 counter agrument in a thread once...

Well done! PM me to receive your 'Gary Glitters Chocolate Starfish' award.

Edited November 30, 2005 by shakerbaby

[Mushroom]

Yes, so part of the "New Paradigm" is that, in this country, many of the indigenous population will refuse to work in jobs that they consider beneath them or as not paying enough and may be quite content to accept the largesse of the State.

So increasing numbers of employers will turn to immigrant or "guest" labour, apparently encouraged by a Government that hasn't the guts to make some of the indigenous population work.

Now, from an employer's point of view, great. In fact maybe 50% of the working population could be replaced by immigrant labour.

Look at your job, ask yourself, could I be replaced by a cheaper worker?

Out or insourced.

Perhaps BTL is the future!

[foxytrader]

This statement sums - up bear mentality. Sometimes life is hard for all of us. Bears whinge while the rest of us just find a way.

I bought my first home in 1991. The mortgage was £75000, but rates were abour 9%. I had to buy far away from my home town due to affordability.

It was hard, it was worrying. I recall bears back then whinging and fretting while the rest of us just found a way. My salary was'nt enough to afford the mortgage so like P Mandelson and the rest of humanity I had to be creative. Oh no, call the Police. Everyone speeds on the motorway sometimes, and many of us play the system to get a house.

Stop whinging and grow - up.

Oh come on Dogbox its not that simple and you are sounding like Norman Tebbit.

On the assumption that you think house prices will go on a permanent arc rising and rising then one must get on a ladder as soon as one can. Granted. However the "get on board at any price" mentality ultimately doesn't work. It feeds on itself.

Current house price average is 165k ish. Inheritance tax threshold is 275k. Gordon has little or no interest in moving this up for the simple reason that when average house prices reach that threshold (which will happen sometime in the next 10 years if I am right and in the next 2-3 if the bulls are) then of every £ that the average house rises above it 40% currently will ultimately be arriving in the Exchequers pocket. Yes people can choose to sell their house prior to that to go liquid and not pay tax on the gain but in a permanently rising housing market why would they do so? Similarly BTLs will pay 40% tax on sale or 40% income tax on rent. Basic rate taxpayer/owner occupiers will be as rare as hens teeth and squeezed out anyway because the average house price will be 8 times the HRT threshold and average rental yields half the basic rate band so anyone earning more than say 16k in their "other job" will be an HRT.

HMRC are eradicating any possibility of using the PPR in inheritance tax planning by challenging every creative scheme the financial services industry comes up with.

I am a bear not because of some sense of "the world owes me a living" but because reasonably if the market continues to rise uniformly we are effectively handing 40% of future house price growth to the state.

The only way houses will come on to the market is by repossessions death or forced sale for LTC.

It will become like an awfully self-satisfied little golf club where the only way to get in is by death or someone elses's misfortune.

Older readers may recognise this scenario from Japan in the early 90s and may then make their own extrapolations.

I may be wrong. I am not that doctrinaire that I believe I have a monopoly on being right as most bulls appear to feel. This may be a mentality that says like Thomas the Tank Engine "Keep it dark, keep it dark" and if enough people "keep the faith" it won't happen but one day I believe they will see they have been sold a pup that permanently rising house prices are good news for everybody. Ultimately they will see it isn't good for anybody.

A re-rating of house prices is essential if we aren't to devote far too much of our wealth to the upmarket caves in which we live. It's not (for me) an issue of lacking Victorian-style moral fibre but rather not wanting to cripple job mobility and aspiration.

JMHO.

[apom]

i was not stating fact but asking for opinions....the reason all my points were followed by question marks.

just so frustrated after all the years of waiting for a crash. (hence my sign in)

in london you can not even buy a phone box for less than £200k. Some ppl in london hav been waiting 3 yrs for a crash and latest figures in SOME good areas are showing increases. the city is awash with mega bonuses and some of these guyz are buying numerous BTL's instead of 1 penthouse.........

Depends where you are..

Devon the rent will not cost the interest against a mortgage if a 15% deposit was paid.

Usually 20-30% below.

A lot of the BTL mortgages have nothing to do with long term investments..

Many are the "last men holding" of a speculative market.

That the house market was very exciting for very many years as people made previously unheard of returns for no real investment..

they didn't need to make money first, merely borrow a lot.. sit on a property for a year and flip it.

No risk, that changes for people as the debt that was of no importance suddenly looks very real.

Mortgaged to the hilt, not covering their costs and in negative equity.

can't sell, can't afford to hold on for that long.

To pretend that most BTL Landlords were looking to have a long term investment is nieve and demonstrates the short term memory of many.

Many are now scared.

Edited November 30, 2005 by apom

[Ski Bum]

Pedro,

As regards your point about standards regulating the rented sector.....yes there are many many rules and regulations in place here in the UK which control standards. I think its better here than in most other countries.

Sure it can be better and there are certainly differences in quality between various properties, but it is regulated. In fact a new set of HMO regulations is in the process of being brought in. HMO stands for Houses of Multiple Occupancy which is where alot of lower income people live.

All of my flats are well above the minimum required standard, and they need to be to attract good quality tenants. This is another plus of the BTL boom of the last few years...ie bringing better accomodation into the private rental sector.

Ski Bum

[algor]

This statement sums - up bear mentality. Sometimes life is hard for all of us. Bears whinge while the rest of us just find a way.

I bought my first home in 1991. The mortgage was £75000, but rates were abour 9%. I had to buy far away from my home town due to affordability.

It was hard, it was worrying. I recall bears back then whinging and fretting while the rest of us just found a way. My salary was'nt enough to afford the mortgage so like P Mandelson and the rest of humanity I had to be creative. Oh no, call the Police. Everyone speeds on the motorway sometimes, and many of us play the system to get a house.

Stop whinging and grow - up.

Yeah you bunch of p**sies! Stop playing by the rules and start commiting fraud.

Oh. I'd better go now, got some money to collect from my ho's before my crack selling round (have to get that deposit somehow folks).

[apom]

Yeah you bunch of p**sies! Stop playing by the rules and start commiting fraud.

Oh. I'd better go now, got some money to collect from my ho's before my crack selling round (have to get that deposit somehow folks).

I had someone suggesting I try an interest only mortgage

Variable rate guilts for 50 years. hmmn... guess we won't be seeing any inflation..

That wasn't understood..

Okay...

Lets try this.

The Interest Only mortgage... take a look at the capital..

That would take me a decade to pay the capital of, a decade of every single penny of my take home salary... Struggling with the inflation.. no inflation to pay of my loan mate..

Just a big loan.. struggling.. struggling with the interest, waiting for the non existent inflation that never comes..

People say that they struggled for a few years.. then it became easier..

but we don't have the inlflation..

The games the same.. but if you pay attention.. you will notice that the rules have changed.

A new environment.. pay attention to it..

The whole mechics of the housing market has changed.. Low interest rates and massive prices are only hiding that from the foolish.

Edited November 30, 2005 by apom

[algor]

I had someone suggesting I try an interest only mortgage

Variable rate guilts for 50 years. hmmn... guess we won't be seeing any inflation..

That wasn't understood..

Okay...

Lets try this.

The Interest Only mortgage... take a look at the capital..

That would take me a decade to pay the capital of, a decade of every single penny of my take home salary... Struggling with the inflation.. no inflation to pay of my loan mate..

Just a big loan.. struggling.. struggling with the interest, waiting for the non existent inflation that never comes..

People say that they struggled for a few years.. then it became easier..

but we don't have the inlflation..

The games the same.. but if you pay attention.. you will notice that the rules have changed.

A new environment.. pay attention to it..

The whole mechics of the housing market has changed.. Low interest rates and massive prices are only hiding that from the foolish.

Err. Was that to me? I'm with you mate. I stay in one of he worst affected places places for HPI and I'm at the perfect age to have been caught out by it. Of the varied group of people I know in my age group only a few have been able to afford property on their own. One by buying from his sister in law. The other was and is very sensible but even he admits he will struggle if interest rates rise. I also know quite a few people have had flats bought in their name by parents although I think this is still the parents interest (inheritance aside). All of these people are ok just now but most could sit out a decline only if interest rates don't rise by much.

I could have lied to get a mortgage. I knew an advisor who was only too willing to help people exagerate their incomes, My most recently mortgaged friend used a self cert through this guy + his cc's and he IS struggling (but still sitting on a nice chunk of equity). I didn't buy despite getting hassled from mum/dad/aunts/uncles because it seemed and still does seem crazy and I felt it would tie me down before I'd even got a proper career sorted. Clearly I know nothing about the mindset of Joe UK as I'd of been quite happy selling after a year and doing something useful with the equity instead of sitting on a pile of laminate floored cash. I wish I could be more bearish but if there is anything I have learned it's I do not understand the mentallity of most people in this country.

On a slight tangent I remember someone saying Argentina had a "luck" index for their economy, does anyone know of a economic model or index that accounts for mass stupidity?

[London Landlady]

So as of now out of 425 posts and 3 weeks of solid trolling you posted 1 counter agrument in a thread once...

Well done! PM me to receive your 'Gary Glitters Chocolate Starfish' award.

Actually, I posted about 30 posts on the original BTL topic.

since then, I have also posted quite a bit of advice to people trying to decide a negotiation strategy for renting.

I also posted quite a few times in a discussion about what was happening at the top of the market.

What I particularly like about this type of post from you is it shows that you are in fact trying to goad me into being abusive.

Unfortunately you will not succeed - so I suggest you stop trying.

Also, i cannot use the PM facility (as Troll user group cannot) _ perhaps if i could then my posts would reduce.

[IPOD]

I bought my first home in 1991. The mortgage was £75000

And how much would that property cost to buy today, oh ingenious one?

I had to buy far away from my home town due to affordability.

http://www.cashquestions.com/forum/showpos...916&postcount=1

Today, when 92% of post-towns are unaffordable to FTB's, are you suggesting that EVERY ftb moves to the 8% of the country that is supposedly affordable?

This year's Halifax's Annual First Time Buyer Review shows that of the 597 main UK postal towns, 548 (92%) were unaffordable for the typical first time buyer (FTB) in 2004.

The affordability difficulties confronting FTBs have significantly reduced the number of FTBs entering the market. There were an estimated total of 361,000 first-time buyers in 2004, the lowest annual total since 1981.

There has been a significant increase in the number of towns that are unaffordable for FTBs outside southern England since 2002. The proportion of towns in the North unaffordable for a typical FTB has risen from 54% in 2002 to 95% in 2004. There have also been marked increases in Yorkshire and the Humber (72% to 92%), the North West (67% to 88%), Scotland (57% to 81%) and Wales (62% to 86%) over the past two years.

Come now Dogbox, even you must admit this situation is unsustainable.

[LazyDay]

I made no mention of any intentions to buy. I simply questioned the fact that by renting...... ARE you creating a demand?

There are, roughly speaking, two kinds of BTLs - those genuine BTLs with business idea based on rental income and those "fake" BTLs who are betting on capital gains and could not maintain their portfolios without them. It is the second kind of the BTLs who took over FTBs share of the market recently. By renting and not buying you are NOT making the "fake" BTLs happier since they have not invested in property based on thorough assesment of expecting rental/price income in the first place. So, not to worry. Capital gain property junkies are not going to feel any better because of your 3% yeild or something you pay them.

[beenhearingthisforyears]

A lot of the BTL mortgages have nothing to do with long term investments..

Many are the "last men holding" of a speculative market.

To pretend that most BTL Landlords were looking to have a long term investment is nieve and demonstrates the short term memory of many.

Many are now scared.

This was published tuesday and i think shows for now, SOME landlords are looking at things for the long term. And for tax reason it can actually work in their favour to make a loss in some areas. Who wants to pay CGT??? Spoken to an accountant and very surprised how you can "juggle" figures/properties to keep it legal (just) but still protect profits/investments.

"Pension fears boost buy-to-let

Tuesday November 29, 04:13 AM

The pensions crisis is boosting the buy-to-let market as investors opt to put their money into bricks and mortar, a trade body has claimed.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said many landlords viewed their rental properties as being a significant part of their pension.

It said the majority of people saw property as a long-term investment, with just 4% selling up when tenancies came up for renewal - half the level seen this time last year.

RICS spokesperson Jeremy Leaf said: "The strength of the market is demonstrated by the fact there has been no significant investor exodus in the past year, despite shrinking returns as house price rises stall.

"Many buy-to-letters are now choosing to stay in for the long haul, viewing their investment as a more significant part of their pension plan.

"For the time being at least, this looks set to continue, with public confidence in pensions at an all time low."

The group said demand for rented property was currently at its strongest since January last year.

It also reported that 23% more surveyors in Great Britain had seen a rise, rather than a fall, in people wanting to rent during the three months to the end of October.

It said this was being driven by rising employment levels, as well as demand from first-time buyers who were unable to get on to the property ladder.

At the same time increased immigration into the UK following the accession of the eastern European states into the European Union was also having an impact in some areas"

Edited December 1, 2005 by beenhearingthisforyears

[dogbox]

Oh come on Dogbox its not that simple and you are sounding like Norman Tebbit.

I was trying to get accross to the bears that it has always and will always be difficult to by a home and that your lot is no harder than mine was as a FTB in 1991.

Again I paid £75000 in 1991 as a FTB but RATES WERE OVER 9%, so the mortgage costed what a £150000 costs today AND I WAS A STRUGGLING FTB, GET IT?????????? On top of that I was made redunadant about 2 months after moving in, honestly.

Life is always hard.

The fundamental issue I have with bears is not whether or not prices will fall but thier over - amplified sense that they are a 'victim generation' unlike no other. Another thread today states 'life is harder than ever' - PATHETIC. TOTALLY PATHETIC.

Bears, people in 1000 years will say the same as you do now 'life is so much harder'. Bears 1000 years ago said the same.

Its all down to perception.

Life is life, go with it or play the victim.

[enworb]

Actually, I posted about 30 posts on the original BTL topic.

since then, I have also posted quite a bit of advice to people trying to decide a negotiation strategy for renting.

I also posted quite a few times in a discussion about what was happening at the top of the market.

What I particularly like about this type of post from you is it shows that you are in fact trying to goad me into being abusive.

Unfortunately you will not succeed - so I suggest you stop trying.

Also, i cannot use the PM facility (as Troll user group cannot) _ perhaps if i could then my posts would reduce.

LL, you are a LL and you offer free advice (from your experiences) which are 2 things many on this site won't ever be able to say for themselves - unless they open their eyes and admit that there will not be a HPC.

I've visited a number of forums - mainly to do with sport, and this site is the worst for advice.... Unless the subject is about a certain HPC.

[enworb]

I made no mention of any intentions to buy. I simply questioned the fact that by renting...... ARE you creating a demand? If FTB's, Sell to renters (which is actively encouraged on this site), and a quota of overseas workers who are coming to UK thru government agreed migration policy + people illegally entering the country all stacks up as people needing somewhere to live. So if many do not buy and rent instead, surely that will affect the market? (yes i appreciate that some ftb's can stay with family, etc)

I am not going to throw my toys out of the pram or get upset if people do not agree with my posts, (as this IS a price crash forum) but i do not understand why there has to be such vitriol just because i do not believe there will be a 60% country wide crash. To me the UK property market cannot be looked at as a whole. There are different dynamics. All the examples I have given have been shot down WITHOUT logical argument, so there is no point on THIS forum stating my case b/c CERTAIN people are so sure of a crash that it is like trying to convert an atheist to a Christian. I TRIED to ask q's. Only a small % even bothered to reference my posts. the rest MOCKED, SNEERED and shot me down. I am laughing b/c i find it so PATHETIC that they had no point of reason and are of the mentality "it's our way or the highway." Will save my energy, send private messages to SOME of the posters on here whose opinion I RESPECT, even though I may not agree with them.

It's shocking how difficult it is to get a simple answer.The words yes and no must be frowned upon.

The simple answer to your original question is yes. I would have posted the question myself but i'm a LL myself and didn't want them to realise that they are encouraging growth rather than a crash

But, whether the influx of il/legal immigrants will have any bearing at all on house prices in the future remains to be seen.

Good question, you've probably given a lot of the bears sleepless nights!

[eurows]

It's shocking how difficult it is to get a simple answer.The words yes and no must be frowned upon.

The simple answer to your original question is yes. I would have posted the question myself but i'm a LL myself and didn't want them to realise that they are encouraging growth rather than a crash

But, whether the influx of il/legal immigrants will have any bearing at all on house prices in the future remains to be seen.

Good question, you've probably given a lot of the bears sleepless nights!

But the answers no. I only need to rent one house. That I did 15 months ago. I notice their are 7 more BTL signs up this week in my town. There are as many lets as sales. There aren't enough takers.

20 years ago I rented sunbeds out to people at home. The cost was £20 a week. You can now have home rental for £15.00 a month.

Too many people jump in, the price goes down and everybody jumps out.

[dogbox]

Come now Dogbox, even you must admit this situation is unsustainable.

I I kinda agree that a crash could be on the cards, but what stops me from joining the bear club is the fact that so many FTBs now use pure interest only, which however you want to cut it, is affordable.

Where Im from 1 bed flats start about £115000. A 95% I/O mortgage costs £454 fixed for 5 years at 4.99% which is £15.00 per day.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER YOU THINK £15.00 PER DAY IS AFFORDABLE. I saw a young girl buy 3 mags, a can of Coke, some sweets and 10 B & H yesterday, which came to about £9.00.

[London-loser]

New to this site and confused. In parts Cambridgeshire BTL very buoyant as large quota of overseas workers due in New Year. If FTB's and many on here who say "do not buy" + the new "arrivals" (believe this is happening all over Uk) then surely more rental properties are needed therefore fuelling demand?

In London (where I live) I personally know people who are not legally entitled to be here/work but they are and all happily renting

They need to live somewhere? And how many actually are here? This must have some impact on the countries economy?

Plus because of tax liabilities many BTL's are looking at properties as their "pension fund" and hoping over time the properties will increase in value. Many of the overseas arrivals are happy to live in crammed conditions so landlords are able to up the rental yields and still give the tenants a good deal.

Just my own thoughts and interested to hear from others who can explain the situation more clearly as I must admit not a clue whether to buy or wait??

The reason you haven't received a glowing welcome is not that you are a "non-believer" it is because you choose an inflammatory name and then obviously post a question that has been addressed over and over again on this site (if you bothered to read previous threads - I know it's dull - you'd have answers to these points rather than needing to post them all over again).

You have two points - existing renters (STRs etc) and new immigrants.

As has been pointed out on this site, ad nauseum, existing renters DO NOT create NEW demand. Only NEW demand supports higher prices or further BTL purchases. Existing renters DO NOT support a new purchase (I rent... if my landlord buys a new place to rent out I am providing no NEW support for him). If I sell a place to a landlord and then rent it back from him for less than he pays in a mortgage I am NOT helping him. This seems to be too subtle an argument for most BTLs.

Immigrants (for example Polish plumbers) DO potentially create NEW rental demand. However, as you point out, they create demand for half a room in a flat... while increasing the supply of plumbers available and pushing down the average wage of a plumber in the UK.

So, while adding £50 per week (maybe) in new rental demand... they undermine the average wage an old-school UK plumber can charge to the tune of what... £50 per day?

TTRTR used to tell us how it was great for landlords that he could get foreign builders to work for half the price of English builders... while refusing to acknowledge that this in some way undermines the ability of those traditional English builders to pay high mortgages/high rents.

If six Poles come here and work as plumbers, all living in one three-bed flat (on split shifts or whatever), while they provide a SMALL boost to rental demand what effect are they having on the status quo? I would say they are hitting six existing UK plumbers very hard, driving down their incomes and making it very difficult for them to support high mortgages and high rents. I would argue that they are having a deflationary effect on the cost of UK plumbers, an therefore on average earnings of UK plumbers and therefore on the average rents/mortgages UK plumbers can support. The BTL "benefit" is a short-term gain with a long-term cost.

This is BAD news for the UK property market. WHY do BTLS think this is a fantastic result for the UK property market? It is convenient to focus on the one side of the argument that boosts what you want to believe (bull or bear) but both sides are important even if you choose to believe they are not. There seems to be a distinct lack of "joined-up thinking" in such arguments... could this possibly be because bulls only want to see one side of the argument? Surely not?

As for pensions and BTLs HOPING their properties will rise in value, you hit the nail on the head - it is HOPE not investment.

Edited December 1, 2005 by London-loser