Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

foxytrader

Members
  • Posts

    213
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by foxytrader

  1. Was this day one of the Foxtons training course?
  2. Wish you would at least attribute your data Christine. This is shabby stuff. And look what happened to Oz house prices and Sydney in particular after the Olympics. The Fox
  3. Excellent Christine so why are you posting on this website? If you believe this then surely you should be rushing to get hold of as much property as you can and keeping the "good news" as far as possible to yourself? That's the way to get the bargains isn't it? I would suggest your employer's branch wasn't open today or if it was no-one was looking at the pictures in the windows. If even the most optimistic vested interest quoted in all the year-end reviews isn't expecting the growth this year to cover a purchaser's stamp duty and legal fees (0-5%) then why should anyone except an estate agent or an optimistic vendor say anything else? Why would a quarter point interest rate cut 5 months ago interest anyone now? "The property market is expected to be lively come January" - sounds like the minutes from the local NAEA meeting. It's called "whistling in the dark" Christine and it is because you are scared. "Compared with the same time last year, prospects are looking healthy." Am afraid not. This time last year you had "the Sipps bonanza" to look forward to. Keep trying love. The Fox
  4. That is a pretty big shift in the price for a 6 month contract. The Halifax index was always very lightly traded when I was in the business but if there is another company offering the index to trade they will only make dramatic changes to the price very carefully to avoid being "arbed". I assume the other company's price has moved as well. If not give me the link and we could make some money! The Fox
  5. Of course there will be. Just like there was this year. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4389637.stm
  6. Interesting. He cites that in areas that "only" constitute 25% of the market (East and West coasts) a family requires to put 50% (!!) of the annual median income towards their mortgage repayments. That is astronomical. The average affordability of Nowhere Indiana and Hicksville North Dakota is going to be higher but this is spin by the side door. If the average median income was normally distributed then the article would work but the East and West Coasts will have the highest average income pushing up the national average. A Wall Street bankers income of $2m will pump up the average but won't mean that Mary-Lou and Billy-Bob earn any more in Cousinmarry Tennessee. Sorry Yankee not able to help on UK stats. Affordability was always cited as a reason for the market going up but like cheap money it has to get MORE affordable in order to continue the stimulus. Static affordability and increasing prospect of capital loss leads to market falls. The Fox
  7. Agreed. The sheer lack of viewings struck me and the desperate hope for a spring bounce. Thought "dinny" sounded like a HPCer or spouse of one! Think this is where the VIs stand to take the biggest kicking and slow elimination of their credibility for an entire generation. There are people seeing and reading one thing in the press but their own lives do not reflect the same reality. The BBC in particular has collapsed professionally IMO. The failure to question the received and constantly-reiterated wisdom that incessantly-rising house prices are "a good thing" is a serious failure of journalistic integrity. As is the reporting of spin and opinion as "fact". The Fox
  8. Londoner The bull or bear argument is a little academic. The bulls know that no market goes up forever so house prices will fall at some stage - the bears know that when the fall comes the market will subsequently rise. A dramatic rise in HPI without a substantial prior fall would simply cement my belief that the crash when it does come will be yet more vicious. A dramatic fall in prices would lead me to expect subsequent rises. So using your scenario if LR figures showed a 15% rise in HPI at the end of 2006 would I think that a crash had been avoided? The absolute opposite. A 15% fall in prices would make me believe the market is returning to a more rational basis but I wouldn't try to second-guess the bottom of the market. The Fox
  9. Just on these points 1/ Holland is a highly populated yet rich little country but doesn't have the same ridiculous bubble mentality. A 3 bedroom duplex overlooking Singel canal in beautiful Amsterdam for £350k or a 3 bed Barratt box in Hemel Hempstead. Mmmm. 2/ The dual income is out of necessity not a new source of wealth. People bought together before - in summer 1988. A pair of single FTBs have the same clout as a couple. The couple may also have the complications of childcare, maternity etc I also understood there were many more single parent families now than ever. 3/ The annual tax "take" rises every year and the amount of disposable income is actually shrinking. Besides 10 years ago people didn't buy £1500 plasma screen televisions on 23.9% credit cards. Any consumer boom that has taken place has been at the price of UK jobs, Asian sweatshops etc The rise in commodity prices has not assisted the consumer in any way. An investment does not depend on individuals suspending rational thought in the pursuit of speculative gains. That is gambling. A house ceases to be an investment if you live in it or if the rent generates less income than the costs of ownership including the opportunity cost of the equity. Thanks for bringing those up Tonification. I feel a lot better now. The Fox.
  10. Cheap money is relatively uncontentious as a partial driver of the bubble eek but maintaining that it will continue to push it higher is rubbish. I think that plus the contention that a 7.2% APR is somehow "cheap money" prompted the "Awooga". CheapER money might do it for a bit but it's no fun buying a £300k property at 4% interest rates if the house is worth £30k less than you paid for it a year later. You've saved 3k in interest and lost £30k in value - not a screamingly good deal.
  11. North Yorkshire - North Yorkshire Malcolm Parker Esq MRICS, Joplings Estate Agents “The market has slowed down as is usual in Nov. Sellers are anticipating an upturn in the market early in 2006 and many are reducing asking prices in readiness.” Why would you reduce your price when you anticipate an "upturn"? They are reducing their prices because they are hoping to "get it away" before the market seriously dries up and their estate agent has no volume at all.
  12. Your parents may have the property on the market in Somerset but the fact that they have looked at renting it out suggests it hasn't exactly flown off the EAs shelves at that price. Tell us when we can check it on nethouseprices. Until then its just a Wurzel EAs dream. The Fox
  13. Yep could happen. It will simply lead to a bigger fall later ES. What would the point of that be? Why delay the inevitable? Please don't confuse spin with "evidence". All the sources you mentioned have an interest in avoiding panic selling and market stagnation. This crash is being " managed" as carefully as possible. If they get away with 20-30% falls over 5 years the Treasury BOE and CML will be secretly very happy. Believe me it's a far better scenario than they are currently daring to postulate to each other behing closed doors. Please let me clarify - you walked into an estate agent with a view to considering instructing them to market your house and they said the market had dramatically improved in the last few months? Gosh I wonder why they said that? The Fox
  14. Oh come on. Any statistician worth their salt knows to predict a movement within a 5% point either up or down is no prediction at all. These are VIs voting for their jobs. This was their choice: Predict rapid house price growth - even the biggest EA chump is not going to put their head on the block for this one. What could it benefit you? If you are wrong (and isolated) you will never work again. If you are right you won't benefit. Predict rapid house price falls - if you are a financial journalist you will be in splendid isolation and as an EA you will be fired. Predict a bland non-committal but cosily-reassuring (and subsequently adjustable anyway) "slight upward trend" within a range that makes the change in house prices "statistically insignificant". This means that any prediction unwilling to exceed a 5% band IN EITHER DIRECTION contains no actual prognostication. It means nothing and simply fills pages. The Fox
  15. I am not sure this site will still be going in 2012 TTRR. Might have to be an email. Besides 5-10% on a market that has stood still for 5 years isn't that great shakes. Crash/slide/stagnation - call it what you like. Prices aren't going up and costs and inflation carry on so it's falling. Throw a 16% rise in the stock market into the equation - still offering a 3%+ yield - and it is looking very sick. All markets need a shakeout. It's how equilibrium is recovered. Why not take it now and get it out of the way? The weaker landlords will fold and the stronger ones will benefit. You could hope to delay the correction for longer but why would any investor want to continue participating in a market with systemic imbalances when market theory tells them time and again those imbalances must be corrected either rapidly (UK 1988-94) or protractedly (Japan 1990-present)? Either way they get corrected. The Fox
  16. It's like Santa Claus isn't it? Its so comforting to believe in a warm cuddly fiction that means all is right in the world. Of course there's no crash and you will be inundated with fresh-faced young investors keen to hear your patter in the New Year. After all a 0.1% rise in December would easily cover your costs....Oh. Also if you are going to quote a VI ("gloomy" was the giveaway) Splat please at least put the provenance. My report - weak, unattributed, derivative. And laughably palpably obviously wrong. The Fox
  17. Their (the owners) 6k pa will only have continued to service the interest component of a £100k mortgage. They will still owe £100k just as they did when they started. You have also chosen to ignore 10 years of maintenance costs which the renter avoids but the owner must pay. Say another £10k in total. If they had £100k in cash they could have generated an after-tax income of at least 3k pa. The owner loses that option. The score after 10 years would therefore be renters £69k in rent less 30k in interest so total cost = £39k. purchasers 5k initial costs (stamp legals etc) plus £60k interest plus £10k maintenance = £75k. So it costs £36k to have the privilege of not actually investing in anything because you still owe the same as you did at the beginning. Sure if there is a rise in house prices then the purchaser "might" be better off but it would need at least a 20% gain under this scenario just to break even. Agreed - people purchase (as I will) for reasons not totally related to the maths of it - schools, new jobs etc but the case for renting for purely financial reasons (in Yorkshire certainly) is made and won. The Fox
  18. "This is where your post falls down. The ingrained prejudice on this forum that puts private sector jobs on a pedestal and smears ALL public sector jobs with the same blackened brush is perverse in my opinion. Which adds more value to the economy, an NHS doctor who invents a new operation to cure blindess or a private sector street cleaner? Of course, the doctor. People who were disabled and unable to contribute to the economy are enabled, allowing more growth etc. Similarly workers cannot work if they are sick/diseased, public sector doctors remedy this. Sure, there are SOME non-jobs in the public sector, but writing them all off is woefully misguided." Off topic but... An NHS doctor is far more likely to invent a new operation during his "private practice" work. Think the massive growth in the number of public sector workers and the enormous burden it places on the private sector to pay their pensions and benefits from taxation is a very real and valid complaint. It is a little disingenuous to compare a private sector street cleaner with an NHS doctor. Why not compare a doctor in private practice - removing patients who would otherwise clog up an overstretched system/paying his tax/making his own pension provision etc - for a more accurate picture? The Fox.
  19. Ok as briefly as I can while not using too much jargon. Gold futures are contracts traded (New York and Singapore) for "delivery" on a specific series of dates in the future. They are bought and sold by open outcry and screen trading. Neither side has any obligation or generally intention of taking or making delivery of the contract (100oz). The price runs parallel to physical or "spot" gold. That is the underlying "number" a futures trader or spreadbetter is gambling on. The fundamental difference between buying gold this way and the physical commodity is gearing. If the June 06 Comex gold contract were trading at $525-$526 I could buy at $526 and for each $ move up or down I will be $100 up or down. However in order to open this position (which is actually worth $52600) I would only need to put up say 10% of that with the broker. Most spreadbetting companies offer credit accounts so you could avoid putting up any money. On the assumption you are a bull and anticipate gold will rise by a further 10% to $575 in the next 3 months you could close out the contract at $575 with a gain of $4900 ($575-$526x100). The guy holding £5k of physical gold will be £500 better off in the same scenario. Options are traded "rights" to buy or sell the underlying commodity for a specific price up to a specified date in the future. In the scenario above "call" or buy options would increase in value while "put" or sell options would fall. I could now list a litany of financial health warnings but in effect I would say the above scenario could have been reversed and the physical holder would only have lost £500 and you could be sitting on a $5000 running loss. Be very careful. These things can really ruin your day. Hope that helps. The Fox
  20. And read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre. First published in 1923 all of what he says still applies. IMHO. The Fox
  21. I do hope you are wrong Oxfordlite I'm not sure I can cope with 5 more years of this. Presumably sterling will be plummeting like a stone in the interim? Not sure BTLs are quite that sensitive to long-term interest rates but be assured that mortgage lenders will widen the differential between base rates and mortgage rates. The lenders won't be taking deposits in that environment and the gold bugs will be out in force. Thing is I am not completely convinced we are in a low-inflation environment at the moment. Think that is yet to come. The Fox
  22. BC You can't go to your mortgage lender and say "Look mate I know I am 3 months in arrears but the yield curve's gone negative and this bloke on a website said property will go up. Surely you can see that? You're what? Instigating repossession proceedings? But the front end is being lowered he says. The council tax? But the place has been empty since I bought it - no-one's been using the facilities. Don't they know that with the pressured private sector labour market I'm going to make a packet? Etc etc...." Punters know f*ck-all about yield curves but they understand the bailiffs. Macro-economic concepts are all well and good but the market bubbled on greed and fear - why are we all likely to become econo-wonks when it's crashing? The Fox
  23. Jesus. He has got a vested interest hasn't he? Dear oh dear oh dear.
  24. Think from A day all property transactions are reduced to 33% LTV from 75% LTV.
  25. The only reason the site might have disappeared BTL is because the event HPC.com was set up to discuss has occurred and anything after this is a form of mildly sadistic voyeurism. In fact if you dare come back in 6 months time you will find it terribly irritatingly smug. The HPC is now like a unfolding car crash - horribly fascinating to watch - and the only question is how many casualties there will be. Have you actually seen the flats at Kings Cross? A trophy property asset indeed. The Fox.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.