Does Any One Still Believe A Hpc Happened In 2004-05

[property guru]

As we approach the end of the year.Is any one still in denial who STILL thinks that a HPC happened in 2004 or 2005 ?

If you look at the front page of this site you will see 6 out of 7 suveys show that house prices are higher now than a year ago.

Financial Times house prices 3.2% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Halifax house prices 3% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Land Regustry Q2 house prices 5.4% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Nationwide house prices 1.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

ODPM house prices 2.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Rightmove house prices 1.5% higher now in 2005 than a year ago

and a glimmer of hope hope / consolation goal for the bears home track minus 3.7% YOY.

So clearly the HPC did not begin in summer 2004 and in fact there was no HPC in 2005 either.

I correctly predicted there would be no HPC in 2004 and 2005.(when all those "experts" / plonkers at Capital Economics got it wrong)

I will now correctly predict there will be no HPC in 2006 as well.

Why ? Because we have (low interest rates,historically low levels of unemployment / low levels of repossessions,massive pent up demand,mortgage approvals back to summer 2004 boom levels, immigration + 200,000 and a economy still growing). THESE ARE NOT SYMPTOMS OF A HPC.

So Property Guru the man who correctly predicted no HPC in 2004, 2005 now confirms there will be no HPC in 2006.

(of course the nervous ones amongst you can keep paying of your land lord mortgage for ANOTHER year as you "wait and see").

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

Edited October 26, 2005 by property guru

[Starcrossed]

<sigh>

[BearLite]

*Yawn*

[theChuz]

As we approach the end of the year.Is any one still in denial who STILL thinks that a HPC happened in 2004 or 2005 ?

If you look at the front page of this site you will see 6 out of 7 suveys show that house prices are higher now than a year ago.

Financial Times house prices 3.2% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Halifax house prices 3% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Land Regustry Q2 house prices 5.4% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Nationwide house prices 1.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

ODPM house prices 2.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Rightmove house prices 1.5% higher now in 2005 than a year ago

and a glimmer of hope hope / consolation goal for the bears home track minus 3.7% YOY.

So clearly the HPC did not begin in summer 2004 and in fact there was no HPC in 2005 either.

I correctly predicted there would be no HPC in 2004 and 2005.

I will now correctly predict there will be no HPC in 2006 as well.

Why ? Because we have (low interest rates,historically low levels of unemployment / low levels of repossessions,massive pent up demand,mortgage approvals back to summer 2004 boom levels, immigration + 200,000 and a economy still growing). THESE ARE NOT SYMPTOMS OF A HPC.

So Property Guru the man who correctly predicted no HPC in 2004, 2005 now confirms there will be no HPC in 2006. Well I hope not.(of course the nervous ones amongst you can pay of your land lord mortggae for ANOTHER year as you "wait and see").

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

At the risk of sounding like a broken record .. it takes longer than a year for the housing market to crash.

How would you personally define the start of a HPC?

[munimula]

Financial Times house prices 3.2% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Halifax house prices 3% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Land Regustry Q2 house prices 5.4% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Nationwide house prices 1.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

ODPM house prices 2.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Rightmove house prices 1.5% higher now in 2005 than a year ago

and a glimmer of hope hope / consolation goal for the bears home track minus 3.7% YOY.

So clearly the HPC did not begin in summer 2004 and in fact there was no HPC in 2005 either.

Jeez, somebody switched you onto spin overdrive cycle PG

I'll adjust those figures for you in real terms (inflation 2.5%)

Financial Times house prices 0.7% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Halifax house prices 0.5% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Land Regustry Q2 house prices 2.9% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Nationwide house prices -0.7% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

ODPM house prices 0.3% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Rightmove house prices -1.0% higher now in 2005 than a year ago

and a glimmer of hope hope / consolation goal for the bears home track minus 6.2% YOY.

so you can see actually the ratio is 4:3 (rising HPI:falling HPI) and 0.3%, 0.5% and 0.7% is hardly positive inflation. And these are VIs so imagine what the true picture is.

[Who Knows]

As we approach the end of the year.Is any one still in denial who STILL thinks that a HPC happened in 2004 or 2005 ?

If you look at the front page of this site you will see 6 out of 7 suveys show that house prices are higher now than a year ago.

Financial Times house prices 3.2% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Halifax house prices 3% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Land Regustry Q2 house prices 5.4% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Nationwide house prices 1.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

ODPM house prices 2.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Rightmove house prices 1.5% higher now in 2005 than a year ago

and a glimmer of hope hope / consolation goal for the bears home track minus 3.7% YOY.

So clearly the HPC did not begin in summer 2004 and in fact there was no HPC in 2005 either.

I correctly predicted there would be no HPC in 2004 and 2005.(when all those "experts" / plonkers at Capital Economics got it wrong)

I will now correctly predict there will be no HPC in 2006 as well.

Why ? Because we have (low interest rates,historically low levels of unemployment / low levels of repossessions,massive pent up demand,mortgage approvals back to summer 2004 boom levels, immigration + 200,000 and a economy still growing). THESE ARE NOT SYMPTOMS OF A HPC.

So Property Guru the man who correctly predicted no HPC in 2004, 2005 now confirms there will be no HPC in 2006.

(of course the nervous ones amongst you can keep paying of your land lord mortgage for ANOTHER year as you "wait and see").

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

Ctrl A Ctrl C Ctrl V

Hope that helps

Edited October 26, 2005 by Who Knows

[boom_and_bust]

As we approach the end of the year.Is any one still in denial who STILL thinks that a HPC happened in 2004 or 2005 ?

Hi,

Funny that, that was exactly the line Marketeer was talking for a year while he was quietly disposing of his portfolio in the backgound. So, c'mon, is that your game?

Hope that helps,

Boomer

[property guru]

If you adjust the figures for inflation you can also adjust the mortgages of every one for inflation ie in real terms mortgage debt has been eroded by inflation in the past year. So the adjustment for inflation arguement is a red herring.

The point is that a year ago on this site the wisdom amongst the "experts" was that a HPC began in summer 2004 and this would be proved in 2005 by massive YOY drops in 2005. This has now been shown to be totally wrong.

As I have proved everyone here called the market wrong and now you say the HPC is "begining now" a year and a half later from when you "promised" it began ie in summer 2004.

You are in denial there was no HPC in 2004 or 2005 and there will not be a HPC in 2006.

Yes its hard for you to accept, yes it makes you angry to discover the HPC that you were "promised" and "guaranteed to happen" has been cancelled but accept it and move on.

I notice from the responces that no one disputes my assertion that a HPC did NOT happen in 2004 or 2005. Good we all agree.

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru

Edited October 26, 2005 by property guru

[Tentpeg]

I'll admit I haven't seen any signs of a crash starting in West Sussex, but there has been a huge amount of upwards momentum, which will take time to erode. The worst case scenario for bears is stagnation, which appears to be contrary to all the historical pointers. Further price rises? Irrelevant to me, I can't buy now, I still won't be able to buy.

Best case scenario, major correction. Just think how many more places you can snap up cheap if there is a crash PG. It's actually in your interests, unless you've been buying near the top.

[OnlyMe]

Hi,

Funny that, that was exactly the line Marketeer was talking for a year while he was quietly disposing of his portfolio in the backgound. So, c'mon, is that your game?

Hope that helps,

Boomer

LOL, how true.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

You are in denial there was no HPC in 2004 or 2004 and there will not be a HPC in 2006.

You forgot 2005.

[Goat]

Don't normally bother with timewasters but I am confident that end 2005 will in hindsight (by most, foresight by HPCs) be seen as the start of the crash with the bulk of the falls in the calendar years 2006 and 2007.

The crash is coming a bit later than expected but that does not mean it is not coming.

Anybody who doubts this should read Andrew Farlow's series of four papers on the fundamentals of UK house prices (will probably post the link in a separate thread shortly)

[munimula]

You are in denial there was no HPC in 2004 or 2004 and there will not be a HPC in 2006.

Are you in complete denial of what is actually going on in the 'real' world or do you simply rely on VI stats to make your assumptions?

For example http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm

My house was repossessed a month ago. At the height of the property boom in early 2004 I splashed out far more than I could actually afford on a large property with the intention of selling it on at a profit. It wasn't long after that the property slowdown started but I kept hold of the property and financed the mortgage by getting myself further into debt, I was certain that the housing market would take off again and I would realise my gains. Following two years of quite harsh housing market drops in the south west I have been forced to admit defeat.

I blame myself for everything that has happened but I also think there are a lot of companies around who like to put a rosy outlook on the housing market and try to make everyone think it will always go up (estate agents, surveyors, mortgage companies), they should take part of the blame for lying to the public.

Edited October 26, 2005 by munimula

[Goat]

If you adjust the figures for inflation you can also adjust the mortgages of every one for inflation ie in real terms mortgage debt has been eroded by inflation in the past year. So the adjustment for inflation arguement is a red herring.

Property Guru

I have no idea what you are talking about here and am pretty confident that neither do you.

Key point: real interest rates remain at approximately average historical levels, the argument that low interest rates have generated a sustainable increase is not supported by the facts.

[Ignorant Steve]

PG I agree with you about there not being a crash yet.

Pockets of repricing, a few anecdotals of distressed selling. But no crash.

[BearLite]

You are an insult to the word guru.

You are in denial - the only argument you have left is that the crash was called too early by some members. So what, I'm sure they agreed (mabye not to you, but you read the posts here don't you?) that it was happening slower than they anticipated.

Property - - - - (fill in the gaps people as you see fit)

I'ts happening.

[Free Thinker]

I feel quite happy that prices are coming down. You can keep looking at the NATIONAL yoy figures if you like, but if houses have gone up by 20% in Wales it really makes sod all difference to me.

I was looking at properties in the summer (even put an offer in on one before I thankfully lost my bottle) in an estate of identical houses that were priced at around £175K, they are now priced at £165K, so that's a 6% drop in just a few months.

Still, you keep buying houses based on your beloved figures. I'll keep renting at way below mortgage rate, get someone else to pay the buildings insurance do maintenance etc. I'll pocket the difference and they can take the hit on their property value.

If only my rented place had an extra bedroom. Hmm rents are dropping in my area too, so pretty soon I'll get that extra room for no more money.

Thanks to people like you, there's never been a better time to rent.

Cheer PG.

Edited October 26, 2005 by Free Thinker

[Michael]

no, not at all....it'll take 5 or 6 years if it goes down at all..................Many people in here think stagnation is not possible but it's happened many times before...........eg throughout the 60s Hps were level against a backdrop of 3 or 4% inflation.......and in the North and Scotland and Wales prices were generally static from 1988 to 99........without the crash you saw in the SE.

''Money illusion''....is an important part of the home seller's psychology............eg most wouldn't sell for a 20% discount now but would be quite happy to sell for today's price in 5 years' time after 5% or even 10% per annum inflation ......house prices since the 1930s have always risen in spurts followed by periods of stagnation.........you see, unlike rents which only rise steadily house prices are asset prices so you get speculative and panic buying once an upswing has begun.....and the market overshoots....

This usually corrects itself by prices remaining level for a long time while rents continue to rise steadily........

Edited October 26, 2005 by Michael

[binbag]

"inflation a red herring" - by this logic you would borrow £100,000 at 5%, put it in a bank account yielding 4.5% and claim that the value of the debt is being eroded by inflation, therefore all is well.

[property guru]

PG I agree with you about there not being a crash yet.

Pockets of repricing, a few anecdotals of distressed selling. But no crash.

Thank you Steve. All my arguements are based on facts (see my low level of repossesions thread).

My proof / facts for the no HPC is THE STATISTICS ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THIS WEBSITE.

Of course all the people can do is repond with sarcastic,abusive, irrelevant comments rather than coherent arguements.

You know why because deep down they fear and know I am right there was no HPC in 2004 or 2005 and they know that for the reasons in my first post in this thread there won't be one in 2006.

PG

[teddyboy]

I do hope you keep your portfolio.

When the prices drop that much that renting is more expensive than buying.

Please come back and visit us. Just bookmark us next to www.samaritans.co.uk

Hope that helps (bring on the crash)

CAN I ASK YOU A QUESTION? You think the crash aint happening, and wont happen in 2006 - When do you think its gonna happen, or do you firmly believe that house prices will never fall less than 93% of asking price?

TB

[Control Freak]

"If you adjust the figures for inflation you can also adjust the mortgages of every one for inflation ie in real terms mortgage debt has been eroded by inflation in the past year. So the adjustment for inflation arguement is a red herring."

Perhaps PG is alluding to wage inflation. This will erode the mortgage debt as a % of take home pay.

Note that it will not decrease the total mortgage debt (in real terms) unless the mortgagee decides to use his pay-rise to increase the mortgage repayments.

[munimula]

I do hope you keep your portfolio.

TB

It's unlikey he will. If he has no concept of the idea of house prices falling and he hasn't factored that scenario into his financial planning as it seems clear from his posts he hasn't then it it unlikely this person will be the owner of any property beyond 2007-2010. He/she seems to base everything on the VI stats and refuses to look at any other evidence.

Any smart investor would recognise what is going to happen and would act accordingly, the smartest would be out of the market already. The smarte investor would welcome a drop in house prices so they could start to purchase again and get better yields. Only somebody very highly geared with very low yields would be spouting the bullsh*t that PG comes out with. He's not convincing anybody here but he's convinced himself that if he keeps repeating the same thing over and over again then just maybe it won't happen. Just maybe those nice little house price fairies will come and make it all better.

Edited October 26, 2005 by munimula

[BearLite]

The statistics on the front page you shout.

What, Halifax et al......ha ha ha

your funny

[lypsey]

As we approach the end of the year.Is any one still in denial who STILL thinks that a HPC happened in 2004 or 2005 ?

If you look at the front page of this site you will see 6 out of 7 suveys show that house prices are higher now than a year ago.

Financial Times house prices 3.2% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Halifax house prices 3% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Land Regustry Q2 house prices 5.4% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Nationwide house prices 1.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

ODPM house prices 2.8% higher now in 2005 than a year ago.

Rightmove house prices 1.5% higher now in 2005 than a year ago

and a glimmer of hope hope / consolation goal for the bears home track minus 3.7% YOY.

So clearly the HPC did not begin in summer 2004 and in fact there was no HPC in 2005 either.

I correctly predicted there would be no HPC in 2004 and 2005.(when all those "experts" / plonkers at Capital Economics got it wrong)

I will now correctly predict there will be no HPC in 2006 as well.

Why ? Because we have (low interest rates,historically low levels of unemployment / low levels of repossessions,massive pent up demand,mortgage approvals back to summer 2004 boom levels, immigration + 200,000 and a economy still growing). THESE ARE NOT SYMPTOMS OF A HPC.

So Property Guru the man who correctly predicted no HPC in 2004, 2005 now confirms there will be no HPC in 2006.

(of course the nervous ones amongst you can keep paying of your land lord mortgage for ANOTHER year as you "wait and see").

Hope that Helps.

Property Guru