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lypsey

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  1. Just a matter of time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAfltXhthX.4&pos=3 Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps Surge on Hungarian Debt Crisis By Kate Haywood June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Credit-default swaps on sovereign bonds surged to a record on speculation Europe’s debt crisis is worsening after Hungary said it’s in a “very grave situation” because a previous government lied about the economy. The cost of insuring against losses on Hungarian sovereign debt jumped 107.5 basis points to a record 416, according to CMA DataVision prices. Swaps on France, Austria, Belgium and Germany also rose, sending the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts on 15 governments 21 basis points higher to an-all time high of 174.4. Hungary’s bonds fell after a spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban said talk of a default is “not an exaggeration” because a previous administration “manipulated” figures. The country was bailed out with a 20 billion-euro ($24 billion) aid package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in 2008. “The comments out of Hungary have really spooked the market,” said Rajeev Shah, a credit strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Investors are interpreting it as bad sign for trying to tackle Europe’s debt crisis.” The euro dropped below $1.21 for the first time since April 2006, stocks tumbled and the cost of insuring against corporate default rose on speculation Hungary will weaken the EU’s willingness to rescue the region’s indebted nations. Credit markets were also roiled after data showed U.S. employers hired fewer workers in May than forecast, signalling slowing economic growth. ‘Something Serious’ Swaps on Spanish government debt jumped 32.5 basis points to 288 after earlier reaching a record 295.5, according to CMA. Contracts on Portugal rose 41 basis points to 380, Ireland was up 34 basis points at 294, and Italian swaps climbed 30 basis points to an all-time high of 264, before retreating to 260. Contracts on Greece rose 72 basis points at 798. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of swaps linked to 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings jumped 30 basis point to 586, according to Markit Group Ltd. “Are we on the brink of something more serious?” Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid wrote in a note to clients today. “We’ve little doubt that the authorities have no appetite for imminent peripheral defaults but we do see the situation getting worse before it gets better. This leaves markets vulnerable until there is more certainty surrounding the structure of the peripheral funding bail-out.” Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
  2. Sorry to be thick here Can someone please explain In two years time we will have 1.4 trillion debt?? Is this Governement Debt?? Is it deficit, if not how much is the deficit and what is the deficit Is it borrowing?? Sorry
  3. This story is a waste of time The CEO of Swale in Kent earns 130k basic plus 14k Ni plus 39k pension giving a total of 183k Anyone here can request this through Freedom of Information, it takes 3 to 5 days to get the info
  4. Flat Bear , if you were a member as you claim you would know that UKIP have policies on almost everything now from grammer schools to hospitals to defence to energy etc etc I think that you will find that UKIP pick up many many votes as a lot of people are completely dissatisfied about all the parties. If you want a party that stops unlimited immigration , stops giving 45 million quid a DAY to the EU , wants OUR parliment to make OUR decisions on law/policy/regulation etc then you will find they do the job for you . i DO NOT want an UNELECTED politician in Brussels telling ME what to do If a few more people like Farage had more pride in their country then we would have a better place to live in, we don't have unlimited hospital space , unlimited schools , unlimited water , the list goes on
  5. I have voted Tory for the last 25 years If Cameron doesnt keep his promise I will never vote for them ever again I will vote UKIP as it appears thousands of other people will
  6. Interesting article, in my mind they will have to raise IR's to defend the pound at some stage , although at the moment the Government seem happy for it to fall we must import inflation and then the whole viscious cycle will begin http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=491926&in_page_id=2&ct=5&expand=true#StartComments PS No 28 in the comments is me by the way, but look at all the positive UKIP voters on here, the Government is getting a kick from everywhere
  7. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8213504.stm It says " Massive fraud at building society The frauds have left a huge dent in the society's finances The Chelsea building society has revealed it has lost £41m as a result of mortgage frauds by some of its buy-to-let borrowers. The frauds are the main reason for the society staying in the red, with overall losses of £26m in the first half of the year. Last year, the Chelsea lost £39m, the largest annual loss yet recorded by any building society. Its finance director has now joined its chief executive in agreeing to resign. "The society has been through a difficult period and reporting a loss in the first half of the year is disappointing," said Stuart Bernau, the Chelsea's chairman and interim chief executive. "However, the underlying performance is strong, even though we have had to make provision for impairment and fraud losses." The Chelsea explained that the fraudulent loans it had discovered were mainly among buy-to-let loans made between 2006 and 2008. It said the frauds were mainly due to "the artificial inflation of property values by third party professionals involved in the transactions". Experts have now combed through all the society's mortgages, searching for actual or suspected frauds, and have come to the conclusion it has lost £41m. The society said it was now trying to recover the money "vigorously" Oh dear .... the first of many
  8. where can I view this graph please , is the Boe or CML or......................
  9. Can anyone help please The CML no longer has a free service and you have to be a member to get access to info Does any one here now where I can get the numbers of FTB'er and also BTL'er over the last 20 years in the mortgage market I am having an arguement with someone that compared to a few years ago FTB'er are now like Dodo's but need something concrete to show him
  10. [The way the article is worded I am not sure I agree with you They say that defaults are costing the company 92% more, not that the cost of recovering is 92% more Sorry maybe I am reading incorrectly
  11. What would be interesting but I don't know how to find out is what the cost of the 92% rise is??
  12. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegra...he-thought.html It says "There was a quiet shift in the news this week: we were confronted with not one but several indicators of economic recovery. It felt strange, but good, to hear predictions that pointed away from apocalyptic crisis. To recap. The banks reported unexpectedly solid half-yearly profits: Barclays Capital's doubled to more than £1 billion. Even Stephen Hester, the chief executive of the Royal Bank of Scotland, said he was confident that RBS shares, currently valued at 49p, were on their way to 70p, at which point he will collect bonuses of £6.5 million. Neil Woodford: 'UK economic green shoots look illusory'Moreover, car sales have lurched forward in a kangaroo hop worthy of a learner driver: a 24.8 per cent fall in June has turned into growth of 2.4 per cent in July. The value of commercial property has risen for the first time in two years, and most people believe that house prices will rise next year. The FTSE-100 has risen by 1,200 points (33 per cent) since its low in March. Some business commentators, having spotted green shoots ages ago, are now talking about an "economic springtime", with full-blown recovery next year. They are dismayed by the Bank of England's continuing pessimism, illustrated by its decision this week to continue "quantitative easing" (otherwise known as printing money). Now that the manufacturing sector is picking up, they argue, the worst is truly over. Yet there is another point of view, which does not contradict the evidence of rising profits but draws very different conclusions from them. Jeff Randall, writing in these pages yesterday, was scathing about the "public relations sophistry" of the banks. "While investment bankers were enjoying a knees-up at the doubling of Barclays Capital's profits… the party hats were kept tucked away in the bit of the bank that deals with ordinary folk," he wrote. A fall of more than 60 per cent in the profits of Barclays' retail division and a 92 per cent increase in the cost of Barclaycard defaults are not very spring-like. Encouraging headline figures can be misleading; or, rather, they tell only part of the story. There can be terrible pain in society even when share prices are rising, as the experience of the 1980s demonstrated. The number of companies going bust has fallen over the last quarter, but is still 23 per cent higher than a year ago. Personal insolvency, meanwhile, has hit a new record in England and Wales: there were 33,073 cases in the second quarter of 2009, the vast majority of which point to a career ruined by recession. These victims will derive little comfort from the "signs of recovery" – and neither should the rest of us, according to some analysts. The Bank of England's decision to increase its quantitative easing can be blamed on unnecessary pessimism; but another explanation – doing the rounds in the City yesterday – is that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee knows something that the rest of us do not about the long-term prospects for the economy. There can be a long delay between the first bite of a credit crunch and the emergence of long-term, even permanent casualties. Eric Daniels, the boss of Lloyds TSB, believes that unemployment will peak in the middle of next year at roughly the same level as in the recession of the early 1990s. If so, more than three million people will be out of work, or more than 10 per cent of the workforce. None of this means that we must discount this week's positive statistics; it does mean that we do not yet know how to interpret them. We are not facing two stark possibilities, "recovery" and "recession", but a messy combination. The business landscape of 2010 will not resemble the economy of the past few years, any more than politics can revert to the days before the expenses scandal. The era of cheap credit is over, too late. Governments have run up incredible debts to save banks (without a clear idea of how to pay them off); yet those banks are reluctant to help ordinary borrowers. In short, anyone expecting business as usual will be disappointed. " I was fascinated by the highlighted line about Barclaycard "92 per cent increase in the cost of Barclaycard defaults " This has hardly had a mention anywhere and they are our biggest credit card provider PS I hope this hasn't been posted before , couldn't see it anywhere
  13. I am having an arguement with a guy that says the "super rich" own large swathes of the UK housing (not corporate) stock, he gives this village (I think in Rutland) that is completely owned by one owner as an example I don't know but I have said that I think/guess most of our housing is owned by people like you and me - possible 80 -90%?? Some is owned by councils , maybe 3 % by the super rich (maybe London expensive homes) and then some with BTL portfolios Does anyone here know for sure or a fairly accurate guess Thanks in advance
  14. I just wonder how the banks are treating the loss's on their balance sheets, would they be assuming they are totally insured for Lehmans and not showing this as a loss?? Could set of another round of failures???
  15. I couldn't see this posted before so apolgies if it was I noticed this article in the FT and thought it warrented some further discussion http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49152b62-7a46-11...?nclick_check=1 It says "It expects that 7 per cent of the $2,467bn of consumer debt in Europe will be lost, with much of that falling in the UK, the continent's biggest nation of credit card borrowers" some more reading for you http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/910e5a20-7a45-11...144feabdc0.html It says "The real unknown, however, is to what extent a recession already on a par with the 1930s will be turned into something even worse by record levels of consumer debt. British consumers' leverage - how much they owe as a proportion of income - has been rising fast for a decade and for the past nine months has been running at a record high of more than 170 per cent - far bigger than anywhere else in Europe. " I am astounded by "7 per cent of the $2,467bn" - for those who didn't pick this up this is BILLION 7% of 2,467bn is 173 billion. In the overall scheme of things, is this a lot of money??
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