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1 hour ago, BelfastVI said:

Thanks for that @BelfastVI. Looking at the graph, it does look like they keep the same trend historically. However more recently, looking at the graph from 2015 Q1 the trend is differing between the two results; UU shows that prices are stagnating and now on a downward trajectory, while NIRPPI appears to be climbing in that same timeframe - I find that really odd.

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13 minutes ago, whome_yesyou said:

 

Thanks for that @BelfastVI. Looking at the graph, it does look like they keep the same trend historically. However more recently, looking at the graph from 2015 Q1 the trend is differing between the two results; UU shows that prices are stagnating and now on a downward trajectory, while NIRPPI appears to be climbing in that same timeframe - I find that really odd.

From Q1 2015 to now both reports show an overall increase albeit at different rates.

The UUJ is more erratic ie in Q1 2015 the UUJ shows a -7% in the quarter only to reverse this with a +8% in Q3 of that year and followed that two quarters later with a -6%. I don't believe prices swung in that fashion and the NIHPI, which captures actual sales shows it didn't.

I am not trying to argue one over the other. The NIRPPI shows pretty well what has happened up to now (enen though I nit pick on the data it includes) but the UUJ may well be correct in predicting what is going to happen next.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next quarter reports are reversed.

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On 26/10/2017 at 9:45 AM, whome_yesyou said:

I’m a bit confused, the next NIRPPI is realased on 15th November. Is this just a rehash of what was released from the last NIRPPI report, which was released a couple months ago?

Yes I believe it is the same figures. Only benefit is they show a comparison with the other regions of the Uk whilst using the same model so we should be comparing apples with apples.

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Hi chaps due to personal circumstances and having friends in Ireland I was considering selling my pitiful house in the UK mainland and moving to NI.

What are your thoughts on brexit in that do you think it will effect NI prices in upward or downward direction?

My view is that London and the South East is due a huge correction but it remains to be seen if NI will get caught up in this again like in 2007. Like all of us here I'd like to time the market but maybe my personal circumstances will dictate I will need to buy anyway. I was thinking about Eniskillen.

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14 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Hi chaps due to personal circumstances and having friends in Ireland I was considering selling my pitiful house in the UK mainland and moving to NI.

What are your thoughts on brexit in that do you think it will effect NI prices in upward or downward direction?

My view is that London and the South East is due a huge correction but it remains to be seen if NI will get caught up in this again like in 2007. Like all of us here I'd like to time the market but maybe my personal circumstances will dictate I will need to buy anyway. I was thinking about Eniskillen.

You're all over the place about this in 269 posts. :rolleyes:

Although I enjoyed the post where you were returning from somewhere and the guy you sat next to was one of the best people you'd ever spoken to, and then you found out he was a highly involved BTLer - and not all bad eh.

On 10/01/2017 at 8:04 PM, bear.getting.old said:

Me too. I nearly caved in and bought in 2010. It went against my principles, houses still hadn't properly crashed and we were in a recession. Like 2003 when I thought about moving to a bigger house with a job move I didn't. I sold it. 2 big mistakes. I still won't buy into this madness. Which is why I bought in Ireland instead. They had a proper 50% crash. I still live here while I'm working here at least.

 

On 08/12/2016 at 12:02 AM, bear.getting.old said:

That was me, in 2003. I have been awaiting the crash ever since although I did nearly buy in 2010. I am fed up of waiting and also want to live my life. Although I have bought in Ireland as I can't bring myself to pay the inflated UK prices. I'm still annoyed though as I wouldn't have done that if we had got the required crash here.

On 08/06/2016 at 9:51 PM, bear.getting.old said:

This HPC or lack of it has defined my life since 2001 when I realised the market was going insane. High house prices was part of the reason my ex and I split up. She wanted us to buy a house in St Albans which is like the worst place in the SE for high prices. I refused. I don't want the same issue with anyone else and I know it will crop up again. So single. Its shaped my future, even today I refuse to pay these stupid prices. Maybe I'm wrong to change my life all because of these prices but its what I have done. I've bought a house in Ireland, at least the housing prices are not an issue there although in Dublin they are to the locals. At least there is a bank lending cap so things don't go out of control again. The weather is crap in the winter so I don't blame people looking in Spain.   ........

 

On 16/11/2015 at 10:38 PM, bear.getting.old said:

.........

I finally bought a house but not in this country, and didn't borrow any money. That's what the housing bubble has done to me, 15 years of scrimping and saving abeing derided over my views and can't bring myself to buy into the insanity of the SE bubble! Even loost a few relationships over my refusal to buy a house. High house prices are ruining lives.

 

On 17/05/2015 at 1:05 AM, bear.getting.old said:

Well I'm buying, just not in the UK. So I suppose I gave up in the UK. No work there though but its my plan B when my job goes tits up. I'll have a mortgage free house do I can do any old job and not worry.

 

On 28/04/2015 at 7:56 PM, bear.getting.old said:

Perhaps its time to give up and buy a house in cheapest Yorkshire and let it out. If you can't beat them....

On 28/04/2015 at 8:38 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Maybe it's time sad lowly paid hair gelled 2nd hand house sales men with too much time on their hands fecked off.

Edited by Venger
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Nobody moves from London to near the border. Not a great cover story for this lad to be sure.

Except soldiers in  their sangars- and they have bunks in barracks. 

Busted!

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Q3 2017 NIRPPI Report

NIRPPI Link

Standardised Price £132k

Quarterly Change +3%

Annual Change +6%

No of Sales:

-9% compared with Q3 2016

-4% Compared with first 3 quarters of 2016

From first look this report is heavily swayed by a large quarterly change in newbuild prices (+18%), whilst newbuild only makes up 14% of the market the change is enough to increase the an margin from 4% to 6%.

This 18% jump in newbuild prices can only be considered as a blip and likely to reverse itself or correct itself in the next report.

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Nationwide House Price Index - Dec 2017

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/Dec_Q4_2017.pdf

Nations – annual & quarterly price change

    Nation: N Ireland 
    Average Price (Q4 2017): £131,989
    Annual % change this quarter: 2.0%
    Quarterly % change*: -0.1%

* Seasonally adjusted

 

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23 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

Q4 2017 NIRPPI Report

Link

Quarterly Change +1%

Annual Change     +4.3%

What is everyone’s thoughts on this report, and the outlook ahead? Things have obviously slowed, but I’m wondering if we are moving towards stagnation or a mere percent or two rise annually in the future...

 

As an aside, looks like some surprising percentage rises in the sticks, according to that report.

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7 minutes ago, whome_yesyou said:

What is everyone’s thoughts on this report, and the outlook ahead? Things have obviously slowed, but I’m wondering if we are moving towards stagnation or a mere percent or two rise annually in the future...

 

As an aside, looks like some surprising percentage rises in the sticks, according to that report.

The sticks dropped more. The percentage rises will be bigger. Transaction numbers will Also play a part. Also explains why Derry looks to have increased so much. It's moving from a lower base. 

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On 3/29/2018 at 8:39 AM, whome_yesyou said:

Nationwide March 2018 

It’s showing NI as the strongest performer... what is that all about?

Mar_Q1_2018.pdf

The Nationwide has such a low market share in NI that their report is rarely reflective of the whole market here. Also they change their offerings so one quarter they might be seeking to attract mortgage movers (generally further up the property ladder) and the next quarter go with products/promotions targeting the FTBuyer. This too can influence the data pool.

In any event I think the headline is triggered more by a cooling in the UK market rather than a increase in prices in NI.

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On 23/05/2018 at 13:13, whome_yesyou said:

Number of sales is the lowest since 2013.

You could be right but you have to be careful when looking at the most recent quarter count. For example in the previous report Q4 2017 it listed the Number of Verified Sales as 5,501 for Q4 2017. You will see in this most recent report that figure has been revised up to 6,312. We will have to wait to the next report to get a more accurate reading on the trend in sales volume for Q1 2018.

Whilst Solicitors are to make their returns and registrations within 30 days of the transaction completion date some are late.

What we can say is that 2017, with almost 24,000 verified sales is the highest since 2007 (remember that year).

We also can see that 2017 achieved over twice the number of sales as any of the years  2008 to 2011.  

Edited by BelfastVI
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