silver surfer Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Today's news http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-fall-as-supplies-apf-2431049096.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode= Oil prices falling as supplies increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruffneck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 He's talking out of his ****. The USA peaked in their oil production decades ago http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant. In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubsie Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Aren't there about 1.5 trillion barrels of oil shale reserves that could be exploited if prices rose high enough and shortages became large enough that the environmental objections will get over ruled when desperation sets in? environmental costs are too high, very dirty way to extract oil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Yeah right, it's the way they tell 'em. Didn't y'all notice that 200 billion barrel oil field. Mind you it's only about 7 years global oil consumption or maybe 30 years US oil consumption at current rates so they'll still have to find a few more. It's still nice to have a potential of 30 years oil self sufficiency. But wait, it's shale oil so divide all the potential oil (extractable) figures by 20 as well as the self sufficiency figure. Edited February 10, 2011 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Relaxation Suite Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant. In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel. Let's cut their estimate down the middle and call the new supply 330 billion barrels. The uses about 8 billion barrels per year, so this would make the US energy dependent for nearly half a century. Australia and Canada also have similarly "untouchable" reserves as well, so this might allow them to access their reserves as well. This makes geopolitics totally and completely different for decades. IF it happens. All figures are on growth remaining static of course. Edited February 10, 2011 by Tecumseh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) The elephant in the room is the industrialisation of China and India and what they are prepared to pay for the same fuel. +1 Globalisation? Globalbastardisation more like. Edited February 10, 2011 by PopGun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PopGun Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 There is no problem with supply of oil..... there is a problem with supply of payment JOIN THE DOTS !!! If you had an oil well in your back garden would you accept paper promises for it ? Yes, you get a +1.5 for that. Only by the time you read this, it will only be worth 1.08! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Bear Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 It might have a future if solar technology imoroved to such an extent it could power hydrogen "factories". However the resources to put this infrastructure in place would be enormous. Plus we'd have to replace all the cars, lorries, combine harvesters, tractors etc The time to start planning for this was decades ago, not now we're on the "bumpy plateau" of peak oil. I'm sure history will judge Jimmy Carter to be a true visionary, he was talking about this stuff in the 1970s If I remember correctly Jimmy Carter was indeed a true visionary, he cut the funding for fusion research. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Bear Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hydrogen is a primary source of energy... look out the window.. if you can see the Sun you can see the biggest Hydrogen fueled nuclear reaction in the solar system. As far as I'm aware Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the entire universe... you don't produce Hydrogen you simply strip it from the other molecules to which Hydrogen has become bonded. As someone mentioned earlier the biggest problem with hydrogen is the fact that it's so "sticky"... it loves to combine with other elements. The most efficient chemical reaction known is that of combining two hydrogen atoms with one oxygen atom.. creating water and some energy. Hydrogen fuel cells use this ultra efficient process. The biggest challenge is finding an efficient way to start the cycle.... breaking water back into 2 hydrogen atoms and 1 oxygen atom.. once you've figured that out you've got a the perfect energy system... strip to H2 & O... combine back to create energy & H2O.... strip to H2 & O ad infinitum Endotherm, exotherm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Bear Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 The greenies wouldn't be pleased, makes shale gas look nice by comparison. What does please greenies? I suppose though that if greenies have their way and make us all a helluva lot poorer one of the results will be the eradication of greenies. Only a rich society can afford people like them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_K Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant. In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel. More like 5 billion barrels of recoverable oil, maximum. http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp http://www.green-planet-solar-energy.com/bakken-oil.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) I think we will see a noticeable increase in CNG cars as the next significant change in fuel source A mark on the calendar please, I agree with Bardon! The US and some other countries have shedloads of available gas. Oil is getting trickier. What's going to happen? Not sure how to profit from this though... Edited February 10, 2011 by swissy_fit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 (edited) There are indeed such reserves in Canada LO. However, the EROEI on them is terrible, the speed of flow is appalling, the amount of water needed in their processing is truly biblical in scale (they are mostly far way from large bodies of water) and the environmental polution caused by that processing is staggering. All of which means that they would not represent a viable replacement for light sweet crude (though they would undoubtably make a fortune for those who control and own their supply) and they would also not stop oil from breaching 200 dollars per barrel. I'm sure it wont have escaped your notice that 150 dollars per barrel was the price at which our global economy went into meltdown. When you build in the time lag between exchange price and delivery and remember that it only managed to stay above $100 for a few months then it's probably reasonably to imagine that it was much nearer $100 (perhaps even less) than $150. Spot still hasn't regained $100 and that's with zero rates, QE and all these asset purchase programs. Edited February 10, 2011 by Red Karma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 How do you know? Oh, you've seen someone else's graph..... Given how far US production has declined since 1971 it is pretty safe to say 'US production peaked decades ago. A 5 billion barrel resource in the bakken could lift US production by 1.2-1.4 Million BPD and this would be at max imum exploitation rate without the risk of damaging the reservoir. 1.2-1.4 million bPD wouldnt even bring the USA close to its 1971 production levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Correct. Howeveras we are expecting oil prices to rocket, these new sources will become viable. We haven't run out of oil, we've run out of CHEAP, easily extractable oil. Sounds to me like they aren't increasing the amount of oil in the ground, they are just finding ways of pulling it out faster. To be fair EOR does increase the overall recovery rate from a field. The injection of CO2 makes the oil more fluid and extractable. This is why you now see some specialist operators going back to commercially depleted fields and sucking out the dregs that were left. But yes - its also a way of suck the oil out faster and when the field pays out the decline will be much steeper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I read a similar claim about Saudi overstatement of reserves years ago. Seems like a panic is being induced before oil prices spike and collapse as China slows down later in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General Melchett Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I think you mean Steve doesn't know what he is talking about? Professor Stephen Bennington, the project's lead scientist, said: 'In some senses, hydrogen is the perfect fuel. It has three times more energy than petrol per unit of weight, and when it burns, it produces nothing but water. 'Our new hydrogen storage materials offer real potential for running cars, planes and other vehicles that currently use hydrocarbons.' Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1DSC6srX0 I know nothing of this story, however, two things you might want to consider, RB: First, the Daily Hate is not a credible scientific journal Second, and I speak from 25 years working in the biotech/pharma industry: There's normally a fairly high correlation between lofty public pronouncements from these sort of academic spinouts and their sudden realisation that they have run out of money and/or their idea has run out of tarmac (wont ever work), and that's it's thus time to find a Greater Fool. Remember: For every Cambridge Antibody Technology (which incidentally, despite being the biggest success in UK biotech, no longer exists), there are hundreds of British Biotechs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Take Me Back To London! Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 As far as Saudi goes oil production will plateau for some time to come. The problem for others is its exports are falling because more and more oil is being used internally in value added industries (plastics, fertilisers, metals, chemicals) and domestic consumption. The Kingdom is actually short of gas and using more oil for power generation. A sensible plan would be to import gas from Qatar to free up the oil for export. (Far more sensible than conversion to LNG, sending it halfway around the world, to be converted back into gas). However politically KSA wont be seen as an importer of gas. 'Face' issue which is a big deal in the Arab World. Efficiency is an unheard of word - I can't even turn off my office lights when I go home......there is no switch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Take Me Back To London! Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 $200 oil Bring It On That will be good for producing things in this country again, as the end of cheap oil makes it uneconomic to ship goods from the other side of the globe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 That assumes that there's not much more to be found. That assumption on the balance of probabilities is correct. The US land and continental shelf has been extensively prospected since the 1860's. Given the advances in exploration techniques it is highly unlikely any major formations remain to be found. Gas will be the predominant player in the USA in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Take Me Back To London! Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 That assumption on the balance of probabilities is correct. The US land and continental shelf has been extensively prospected since the 1860's. Given the advances in exploration techniques it is highly unlikely any major formations remain to be found. Gas will be the predominant player in the USA in the future. http://newmexicoindependent.com/68766/gov-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-gas-shortage-cold Gov declares state of emergency due to gas shortage, coldBy Matthew Reichbach | 02.03.11 | 2:15 pm Gov. Susana Martinez declared a state of emergency Thursday afternoon due to record-breaking cold and shortages in natural gas throughout the state. Towns and cities throughout the state have been without natural gas including Taos, Questa and portions of Santa Fe. Martinez also announced that the heat would be turned down in all state buildings and sent all non-essential employees home to save natural gas and electricity. The New Mexico Gas Company issued a press release at noon which said, “Due to rolling black outs in West Texas and other problems, the delivery of natural gas into New Mexico has been impeded. States in the southwest are experiencing similar issues.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 http://newmexicoindependent.com/68766/gov-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-gas-shortage-cold A localised issue that is down to supply constraints during high demand. That does not reflect the USA's relatively rich endowment in natural gas, especially shale gas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 A localised issue that is down to supply constraints during high demand. That does not reflect the USA's relatively rich endowment in natural gas, especially shale gas. They need to pull their fingers out and start re-engineering their infrastructure to use it though instead of oil. I should think the oil lobby will block this if they can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 They need to pull their fingers out and start re-engineering their infrastructure to use it though instead of oil. I should think the oil lobby will block this if they can. Better still use the natural gas endowment (which is a limited blessing) to transition to a nuclear - renewable economy. Alternatively go for the old tried and tested method of piss it up the wall and hope something else comes along to save the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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