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Halifax House Price Index -0.1% Mom


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HOLA441
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HOLA443

Hmm... exellent outcome considering this is the busy season traditionally, I had resigned myself to small rises now through to September. Doubtless VI's will pin it on pre elecction uncertainties. Wonder how the Express will spin it.

Anyroads one swallow does not make a summer...but I am content with this news today.

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HOLA449

well said, I,m having an extra choccie McVities.

As you dunk, would you mind commenting on my mounting sense that change will prove so slow in affluent redoubts like mine that, absent a major gilts strike, I've got 2 more years of eggs for breakfast in a rental?

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HOLA4410

I like that a lot :) 3M/3M down to -0.7% now!

BBC NEWS FLASH!!

House prices rises slowed slightly in April the Halifax building society says. This is largely caused by last winters unseasonably wintery weather and the hurricane of 1987 combined with today's news of a hung parliament causing a temporary dip in prices.

We expect the recovery to recover by next month once the pent up demand comes out.

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HOLA4411

As you dunk, would you mind commenting on my mounting sense that change will prove so slow in affluent redoubts like mine that, absent a major gilts strike, I've got 2 more years of eggs for breakfast in a rental?

I think the bond market will vote no confidence and IR will have to rise. Add job losses as compulsory cuts are made. Its a recipe for 20% down by year end. More in 2011. I am near Brighton and things have been moving but mainly due to a chronic shortage of property. My local EA, who is a Realist like me, says supply is increasing rapidly and carnage is coming (mainly due to another BTL exodus) and to carry on renting. I like my EA.

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HOLA4412

I blame the election.

everything was great yesterday, rising GDP, Bail outs formed, Bankers record profits, unemployment stable.

This credit crisis is extremely fast moving.

well, not really, its been building since 2003...the faces turning blind eyes are the fast moving things....

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HOLA4421

This is starting to get pretty grim for pwoperdee, especially in light of the other news regarding personal insolvencies today. Seems that insolvencies(35k in three months) are running at about a third of the number of mortgage approvals(about 35k a month), which I suppose must be a very high proportion.

Anecdotally, it appears that many people are simply shuffling closer to the financial abyss with each passing month. A guy at my work asked if he could have a lift since he could not afford the petrol until payday. Desperate stuff.

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HOLA4422

I'm calling house price stagnation.

Certainly based on these figures that's what we're seeing.

Prices are now back at Nov/Dec 2009 levels .

The four months of 2010 data show basically:

(1) one small 'rise' [Jan, +0.4%];

(2) one chunky 'fall' [Feb, -1.6%];

(3) one chunky 'rise' [March, +1.0%]; and

(4) one small 'fall' [Apr, -0.1%]

Net - down 0.3% in four months, i.e. barely changed at all. None of the changes above are material enough, or based on a large enough sample, to dispel a presumption of anything other than completely flat prices at best.

To be honest, there could be much much worse things for the economy as a whole than for this to continue for another 5-10 years or so, i.e. let inflation restore affordability after the initial 15%[ish] nominal crash [although this time around it was more like an initial 25% fall followed by an instant 10% bounce back]. This is basically what happened in the 90s. It would, though, be stupid, of course, to make long-term predictions by extrapolating four mohths of data.

Another interesting thing is that, even based Halifax's bizarre data set, the price-earnings ratio has increased despite price falling. They reckon that wages dropped by nearly 2% in that month. Sounds to me as if employers might not be respecting the recovereh. Either that or the Halifax data is bobbins, take your pick.

Edited by the flying pig
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HOLA4425

Too bad there's no pretty graph in the report for us to admire..

A graph would be way to bearish using the halifax data, 3m on 3m down 0.7%. Obviously they can't graphicalise that! It might portray the dire state of the market!

prices up 6.6%. laa laa laa.....all is well everybodys happy......

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