Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 The Boom IS Back Oil Metals Commodities Banking Shares UK Stock Market US Stock Market Global Stock Markets UK Property (according to Halliwide Indices) However it is a CRACK UP BOOM The above are early sign of people getting out of cash First signs of massive inflation as a consequence of money printing in US, Europe and UK House Prices will not fall much more in Nominal Terms however to reassure you they will fall in Real Terms over next 10 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Is disagree. The inflation will be in everything that will drain spare money from the purse of every person - goods, services, basics in particular. Under those circumstances extreme debt WILL BE RUINOUS, whatever the base rate. Foreigners will not pay more money for goods and services to bail out failed UK economic policy. There is no wage bargaining power. The BOE are on a pathetic attempt to devalue our way to competitiveness without dealing with the real issues which is ludicrously overpriced land prices and associated cost of living / working - which they are trying to prop up. They will fail miserably and create a ever bigger problem in the medium and longer term. They created this mess, they are certainly not going to provide any policy which cures it - they are feckless wasters who have never done a days productive work in their lives. They measure growth via the expansion of the money supply, they are delusional fools gambling with other people's futures and kowtowing to whatever incumbent political party stands in power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mammon Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 (edited) (12 Aug 2009) Bob Prechter , who famously predicted the 1987 stock market crash, tells Tech Ticker "the march towards depression, which is being fueled by deflationary trend, is pretty well intact." So forget all you've heard about recovery and inflation, "we've only seen the first phase," of the downturn according to Prechter. Next to come, is "a credit implosion" that will once again destroy the value of stocks, commodities and especially real estate. "The biggest area of overvaluation because of credit extension is the real estate area," he says. "And if you'll notice that’s the area that's had the weakest of any kind of attempt at a recovery." When this next phase of "deflationary depression" happens the only investment advice he can give is: safety first. "Make sure as an individual you're in the safest possible investments so you can ride this out." And as discussed in a previous segment, that means investing in dollars or dollar equivalent assets. Edited August 12, 2009 by Mammon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 (12 Aug 2009)Bob Prechter , who famously predicted the 1987 stock market crash, tells Tech Ticker "the march towards depression, which is being fueled by deflationary trend, is pretty well intact." So forget all you've heard about recovery and inflation, "we've only seen the first phase," of the downturn according to Prechter. Next to come, is "a credit implosion" that will once again destroy the value of stocks, commodities and especially real estate. "The biggest area of overvaluation because of credit extension is the real estate area," he says. "And if you'll notice that’s the area that's had the weakest of any kind of attempt at a recovery." When this next phase of "deflationary depression" happens the only investment advice he can give is: safety first. "Make sure as an individual you're in the safest possible investments so you can ride this out." And as discussed in a previous segment, that means investing in dollars or dollar equivalent assets. that means investing in dollars or dollar equivalent assets. Yeah right ! It's not 1980! So the dollar gets stronger -whats that going to do for US economy (exports & debt)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilroy Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Yeah right ! It's not 1980!So the dollar gets stronger -whats that going to do for US economy (exports & debt)? decrease exportsand increase debt defaults, which has a deflationary effect and I believe is termed a deflationary spiral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 the boom exists in the unreal world of finance. it has been bailed by the real economy. course, the money has poured into finance...it is booming...now ask why....Ill give you my guess FWIW.....THEY ARE KEEPING THE MONEY TO THEMSELVES. No Boom, just re-arranging the chairs on the Titanic.( bankers and politicians first) any claims to a real boom are therefore nonsense. in reality, a plug has been pulled on the real economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 decrease exportsand increase debt defaults, which has a deflationary effect and I believe is termed a deflationary spiral decrease exports and increase debt defaults, Right we are getting there - and what is this going to do to the US dollar? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Yeah right ! It's not 1980!So the dollar gets stronger -whats that going to do for US economy (exports & debt)? Are you aware that much of debt outside the US is denominated in $? And what's the implication once there is a credit crunch and no more rolling available and it needs to be paid back? US may not be able to do much about it. A poster recently cited his father on this site: you've got to sleep in the bed you made, +/-. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Are you aware that much of debt outside the US is denominated in $? And what's the implication once there is a credit crunch and no more rolling available and it needs to be paid back? US may not be able to do much about it. A poster recently cited his father on this site: you've got to sleep in the bed you made, +/-. Yeah.. PRINT PRINT PRINT DEVALUE THE DOLLAR "INFLATIONRY DEFAULT" ON DEBT (so not a real default) MASSIVE INFLATION Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boredwithforum Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 they are feckless wasters who have never done a days productive work in their lives. This is the simple reason why the country is fooked, more and more people had and still have similar ideas, namely the buy to let brigade. People were sold a dream, you don't need to do manaul work, just sell stuff to others and rent them property, easy way life In the end the UK will just be a place to live, so to speak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 "It's levels stupid - not growth rates" Mervyn King 12th August 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilroy Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Right we are getting there - and what is this going to do to the US dollar? As dollars disappear due to defaults they become more valuable as taxes and non-defaulted debts, plus interest needs to be repaid. If they could have printed their way out, they would have by now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Yeah..PRINT PRINT PRINT DEVALUE THE DOLLAR "INFLATIONRY DEFAULT" ON DEBT (so not a real default) MASSIVE INFLATION Admit you are talking your book Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Admit you are talking your book ? As dollars disappear due to defaults they become more valuable as taxes and non-defaulted debts, plus interest needs to be repaid. If they could have printed their way out, they would have by now. No Just getting going - it will increase exponentially Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Admit you are talking your book What is unclear? The way you communicate suggests you should know what "talking one's book" stands for. Or, are you indeed a stealth bull as classified by Bruce Banner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Daddy Bear Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 What is unclear? The way you communicate suggests you should know what "talking one's book" stands for. Or, are you indeed a stealth bull as classified by Bruce Banner? A statement made by a trader or hedge fund manager expressing his or her opinion that a stock or other investment is a good buy. The statement is made without expressly stating that the trader him- or herself owns the stock and stands to profit if the stock price goes up. Book is another term for a traderÂ’s portfolio of investments. With regards to housing ...for the 23,7000,000,000,000th time I keep saying housing will fall in real terms for the next 10 years. So I am not a stealth bull. In nominal terms it will of course rise just like in the 70's when we had a big crash but it was masked by inflation. So am i "talking ones book" - no - just advising people that cash will be trash in a few years and to be aware of being sucked in by this deflation baloney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roman holiday Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 (edited) Are you aware that much of debt outside the US is denominated in $? And what's the implication once there is a credit crunch and no more rolling available and it needs to be paid back? US may not be able to do much about it. A poster recently cited his father on this site: you've got to sleep in the bed you made, +/-. That's right. As my dad said; "Well, you made your bed, now you gotta sleep in it!". I didn't have a bailout dad, rough justice instead but it did teach me a bit about life... Deflation is also rough justice for a profligate country. Forget about the fundamentals of the currency, forget about the mysteries and dogmas of monetarism [a supposed refuge for the economic scoundrels], the reality is that once the great contraction starts it is unstoppable. The economists with all their theories thought they could ignore human behaviour [ceretis paribus or some such delusion]. and gambled on a monetary system which was supposed to create continual debt fuelled growth. Another ideological experiment going into the dustbin of history. Get liquid and stay liquid. Diversify your currencies. Commodities? Stocks? Property? Run a mile because they will only crash again. The idea that inflation can be created just like that is naive in the extreme, only the idiot mainstream CNBC watching investor would be foolish enough to believe it and run out and spend in the markets. Do not be duped by monetarist dogma. Deflation it will be, and debtors will be "crucified" by a strong currency until they declare bankruptcy. Edited August 12, 2009 by roman holiday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffy666 Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 This is the simple reason why the country is fooked, more and more people had and still have similar ideas, namely the buy to let brigade. People were sold a dream, you don't need to do manaul work, just sell stuff to others and rent them property, easy way life In the end the UK will just be a place to live, so to speak Everyone can make a living by renting houses to each other and mewing endlessly rising house prices. We can always import people to do essential jobs like estate agency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pindar Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Is disagree.The inflation will be in everything that will drain spare money from the purse of every person - goods, services, basics in particular. Under those circumstances extreme debt WILL BE RUINOUS, whatever the base rate. Foreigners will not pay more money for goods and services to bail out failed UK economic policy. There is no wage bargaining power. The BOE are on a pathetic attempt to devalue our way to competitiveness without dealing with the real issues which is ludicrously overpriced land prices and associated cost of living / working - which they are trying to prop up. They will fail miserably and create a ever bigger problem in the medium and longer term. They created this mess, they are certainly not going to provide any policy which cures it - they are feckless wasters who have never done a days productive work in their lives. They measure growth via the expansion of the money supply, they are delusional fools gambling with other people's futures and kowtowing to whatever incumbent political party stands in power. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roman holiday Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 (edited) With regards to housing ...for the 23,7000,000,000,000th time I keep saying housing will fall in real terms for the next 10 years.So I am not a stealth bull. In nominal terms it will of course rise just like in the 70's when we had a big crash but it was masked by inflation. So am i "talking ones book" - no - just advising people that cash will be trash in a few years and to be aware of being sucked in by this deflation baloney. I half agree with you here. I agree that housing will fall in real terms, but I think it will also fall in nominal terms. And here we get into the murky depths of the relative values of currencies. Say asset prices depreciate against the currency. That's fine, but it is also possible for the currency to depreciate itself against stronger currencies [this has nothing to do with hyper-inflation, just devaluation]. If someone had managed to hold on to their deposit in pounds/dollars they will be in a better position to buy property. Of course, if they had bought a stronger currency such as gold, or perhaps Yen, they would be in even a better position. Liquidity is the key, and then in a strong currency. Edited August 12, 2009 by roman holiday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcojo Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 I suspect the values will come down. I suspect they will go up as they have been. There's nowhere to live in the UK. Look at London, lack of supply means the the prices go up as the people with the money bid higher for the premium property. Same thing will happen when people realise there isn't in fact any houses in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confounded Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 That's right. As my dad said; "Well, you made your bed, now you gotta sleep in it!". I didn't have a bailout dad, rough justice instead but it did teach me a bit about life...Deflation is also rough justice for a profligate country. Forget about the fundamentals of the currency, forget about the mysteries and dogmas of monetarism [a supposed refuge for the economic scoundrels], the reality is that once the great contraction starts it is unstoppable. The economists with all their theories thought they could ignore human behaviour [ceretis paribus or some such delusion]. and gambled on a monetary system which was supposed to create continual debt fuelled growth. Another ideological experiment going into the dustbin of history. Get liquid and stay liquid. Diversify your currencies. Commodities? Stocks? Property? Run a mile because they will only crash again. The idea that inflation can be created just like that is naive in the extreme, only the idiot mainstream CNBC watching investor would be foolish enough to believe it and run out and spend in the markets. Do not be duped by monetarist dogma. Deflation it will be, and debtors will be "crucified" by a strong currency until they declare bankruptcy. Got to be the best stance until proven otherwise, follow this advice and stay nimble. This is a good analogy of the current economy. http://www.ugotgames.com/action/kitty-cannon.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 So am i "talking ones book" - no - just advising people that cash will be trash in a few years and to be aware of being sucked in by this deflation baloney. What I meant was: "To talk one's book is to speak favourably or unfavourably about an instrument depending on whether one is long or short of it. " Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 I suspect they will go up as they have been. There's nowhere to live in the UK. Look at London, lack of supply means the the prices go up as the people with the money bid higher for the premium property. Same thing will happen when people realise there isn't in fact any houses in the UK. I get it now. You think you are doing comedy. You're not. Or if you are; it's rubbish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 I suspect they will go up as they have been. There's nowhere to live in the UK. Look at London, lack of supply means the the prices go up as the people with the money bid higher for the premium property. Same thing will happen when people realise there isn't in fact any houses in the UK. This is hilarious It's almost sarcastic! You have a potential to write scripts for some black humour shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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