North West anyone??

[Keefter]

If you didn't buy, then I apologise. I thought I remembered you saying that yu were going ahead.

Nevertheless, 30% is OTT - there's no point rounding up to the nearest 10% just to make your point. Probably more realistic to round down to 20% (and now watch that paper profit slowly start to erode).

I really believe there will be a crash (slowdown/correction whatever you want to call it...) but that this will take years. It doesn't look like a crash until afterwards. 'Crash' is such an emotive word that people start to look for the Doomsday overnight 50% slumps - not gonna happen !!

Year on year data (excluding the first few months of 04) looks like returning some pretty conclusive figures, and IMO more importantly, sentiment has changed. Don't know about you but, everywhere I look, the feel-good factor has gone.

Taxes up, oil prices up, interest rates (probably) up, wage inflation low, debt spiralling.

Consumer spending down, MEW down, mortgage approvals down, BTL bail out, broken chains.

Do you honestly think now is a good time to buy and do you honestly believe in a constantly growing market ??

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

NO is the short answer, I just don't think it will be as bad as some of the bears are making out.

[George]

Nothing selling, some JCL cvnts still buying appartments to rent out to the masses of non-existent tenants. Some have been empty for months.

Hope they get burnt, greed is a sin. You need not two houses BTL cvnts.

Edited April 13, 2005 by George

[Keefter]

I'm actually looking for a property currently so some of the stuff I see for teh buyers point of view will be slightly different to you guys, also depending on where you live. I'm seeing nothing much new coming onto the market, but what is on the market staying on teh market for weeks, most of the time months. Anything that is priced 'fairly' is being snapped up.

I'm amazed at just how stubborn someone with 60k supposed equity can be. some of these houses have been on the market for 3 months and more and still haven't reduced.

[M21er]

... But places like Didsbury (m20), Chorlton (m21) and student areas (m14) doing well

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Apollo1966,

I would agree with those comments. I am surprised at the numberof SOLD sign in Chorlton (Beech Road area) I don't know the prices that have been achieved but the fact that they've sold at all is indication the market is doing better than I would expect.

Perversely, Chorlton is looking relativley cheap compared to other less desirable areas. You can get a reasonable 3 bed terrace in Chorlton for say £160k - £200k. Compare this to some of the new build flats in Moss Side / Hulme for similar prices and Chorlton doesn't look so expensive. (There is a conversion of a church in Hulme near Asda where 1 bed flats start at £169k!! Sorry - I don't have the link or: 2 bed flats on the site of the Little Alex pub at £160k )

Personally, I think prices in Chorlton will come down by say 30% - but where does that leave the 1 bed flat in Hulme? -80%??

Regards

M21er

[M21er]

Hello M21er do you mean http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-467..._t=buy&chnl=buy St George's Church ?  ....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Apollo1966,

No - that's on Chester (on the left as you drive into Manchester) it is imposing and at least you could claim to be part ofthe City Centre. The Church Conversion I'm referring to is opposite Loreto College - just past Moss Side Job Centre / Probation Centre before you get to Asda. If I can find the link I'll edit this post

With regards falls, you may be right 30% may be too steep for M20 / M21 - I just don't think salaries are that high in Manchester to justify these levels of prices and 30% doesn't seem a lot given the rises we've had - there must be some froth in the prices

M21er

[DTMark]

I'm actually looking for a property currently so some of the stuff I see for teh buyers point of view will be slightly different to you guys, also depending on where you live. I'm seeing nothing much new coming onto the market, but what is on the market staying on teh market for weeks, most of the time months. Anything that is priced 'fairly' is being snapped up.

I'm amazed at just how stubborn someone with 60k supposed equity can be. some of these houses have been on the market for 3 months and more and still haven't reduced.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There are five properties within half a mile of here that have been for sale for over a year now, some reductions, one actually changed EAs and put the price back up again (259 then 249 then 235 now 245). It's still for sale.

It seems like a question of not how many weeks or months it takes to sell these, but how many years the vendor is prepared to wait.

Edited April 14, 2005 by DTMark

[Keefter]

Apollo1966,

No - that's on Chester (on the left as you drive into Manchester) it is imposing and at least you could claim to be part ofthe City Centre.  The Church Conversion I'm referring to is opposite Loreto College - just past Moss Side Job Centre / Probation Centre before you get to Asda.  If I can find the link I'll edit this post

With regards falls, you may be right 30% may be too steep for M20 / M21 - I just don't think salaries are that high in Manchester to justify these levels of prices and 30% doesn't seem a lot given the rises we've had - there must be some froth in the prices

M21er

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Salaries probably are not that high Manchester but those who earn the most have congragated (sp?) in 3 or 4 areas. So M20/21 probably will not get the hitting that everywhere else does. 30% seems reasonable to me. I'm bearish about the market but not 30% plus bearish.

[europbaron]

ok - in that case I haven't seen the conversion in question

I get the impression that Didsbury in particular has been out of reach for FTBs for a long time (well before the boom) and that properties changing hands are between older Owner Occupiers or rich landlords (not likely to bail out because they have been doing it for a while) and people on various stages of the second or higher rungs of the ladder so again less likely to be shocked by drops like FTBs.  Also the average salary of Didsbury dwellers is quite high compared to the UK average (you just have to look at the flash cars parked outside).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anyone who has bought there in the last two years must be on a decent wedge, but the price rises seen there over the last 5 years are astounding. I sold at 10k under my asking price in Nov 04, but it was still double what we paid for the place 3 years earlier. And we paid about 70% more than the going rate of two years before. That was in a decent, but not premium, area of Withington (M20). Knowing quite a few people in Didsbury, I can say with certainty that at least some of those flash cars were bought through MEWing.

Prices have been pretty much flat so I think what you are seeing is that houses in M20/21 are being bought in preference to those in other areas simply because it is now a buyers market and they can. As has been pointed out these areas are "relatively" good value. Prices in neighbouring areas will have to fall unless the market as a whole picks up, because people are no longer afraid of "missing the boat". This will have knock on effects in M20/21 as well starting with the less desirable council estates etc. Good parts of the postcodes will suffer less, but they must surely also get dragged down.

[M21er]

Apollo1966,

No - that's on Chester (on the left as you drive into Manchester) it is imposing and at least you could claim to be part ofthe City Centre.  The Church Conversion I'm referring to is opposite Loreto College - just past Moss Side Job Centre / Probation Centre before you get to Asda.  If I can find the link I'll edit this post ....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Further to my promise above, I have found out the website (Sorry for the delay but I've almost been cured of HPC addiction)

The link is 1 bed flat Church Conversion in Hulme - From £170,000

Impressive conversion but I would struggle with the location. Any thoughts on monthly rental value?

M21er

[SarahBell]

Ooo that church is right opposite loreto college which is next to the probation centre - its just up from the cross roads where the little alex is/was and wheer another housing estatey thing is.

Its very close to moss side sports centre though

[THE WATCHER]

just a bit of an update,put myself on a few mailing lists today to see whats happening around here,got one reply so far 96k for 3 bed semi,thats come down from approx 115-120k but need refurb work?how much im not sure.

But i will keep you updated

[Robbrent]

I to live in Blackpool, the problem around here is that there are not many people on an income to fund the silly asking prices, there has been a bit of speculation, but I note that some of the speculators are getting a bit worried there seems to a lot of property going on the market, the prices will fall particularly in the 3 bed semi market where the asking prices have just become plain silly, I think the the terraced property will remain steady as it is typical first time buyer property.

As for the 2 bed flats it's anybodies guess but I would guess they are better value around here because of the number of retired people

[Catch22]

East Lancs town

Son-in-Law's mother has the odd BTL house, so has one of her other sons

If I heard it right , he has 11, how long he's had em I don't know, wife dragged me away. So mum asks Son if he wants to buy one she has for sale. No way says he, he lost money on last financial year on his BTL's. He owes the bank 400K on them, and is trying to off load them all, never mind add to them. Its a low price town, even in this over inflated market where you can pick two bed terraced up for 40/50K.

The rot is setting in .

[Keefter]

Been looking at houses for some time now and all I've seen are the same houses on the market. Some have shifted but not many - and the usual Rightmove, yourmove, fish4homes type websites bring up the same results they did 6 months ago, no-one seems willing to drop their price.

[Catch22]

Small East Lancs town is highly representative of other larger North West cities ... ? ... ich don't think so

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I never implied it does, the very fact I qualified the post with the heading "Small East Lancs town" would substantiate that fact.

However East Lancs is part of the North West, hence I posted it there. Would you prefer I make a new Sub Heading "East Lancs" ?

By the way, I'm doing as the forum requests, giving fed back, you stick to posting sarcastic one liner's it suits you.

[THE WATCHER]

Property prices rise at just 7%

Andrew Oxlade, This is Money

13 June 2005

GOVERNMENT figures today revealed a sharp slowdown in the UK property market with London leading the way. A fall in the price of detached houses in April was largely to blame.

OFFICIAL FIGURES: The price of the average detached home fell more than 3% in a month

The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) said annual house price inflation in April stood at 6.9%, down from 12.6% in March.

The price of the average home fell to £181,832, down 0.8% from £183,346 a month before – although the ODPM warns against a month-on-month comparison of the figures which do not take into account seasonal demand.

The annual rate of house price inflation was lower in all regions, with London recording the most dramatic slowdown. Values in the capital in April stood just 2.7% higher than a year earlier, down from a growth rate of 9.8% in March.

'The fall in UK prices between March and April can be largely attributed to a fall in the price of detached houses,' said the OPDM in a statement. 'Prices for detached houses fell by 3.5% and for flats by 0.4%, with slight increases for other dwelling types [such as semi-detached and terraced homes].'

Among the home countries, property price inflation fell from 12% to 6% in England, from 22% to 15.9% in Wales and from 16.1% to 14.3% in Scotland.

The English regions also saw a sharp slowdown – price growth was strongest in the North-West at 12.9% but it was down from 19.2%. Growth in the North-East was 11.9% compared to 19.4% before. Price inflation was just 4% in the South-East, down from 8.1%.

There was also more good news for those looking to get a foot on the property ladder. Prices for first-time buyers grew at an annual rate of 9.8% compared to 18.3% a month before.

p.s Come on Northwest people keep us up there.

Edited June 14, 2005 by THE WATCHER

[simon99]

"There was also more good news for those looking to get a foot on the property ladder. Prices for first-time buyers grew at an annual rate of 9.8% compared to 18.3% a month before."

Great, prices are just 10% higher, terrific news for FTB's , NOT. Great news for FTB's would be prices plumetting 50%

Who writes this stuff?

As for the NW being benign, I seem to remember the Capital Economics news item saying the northern regions would be whacked hardest in a crash. Let's hope so.

Edited June 15, 2005 by simon99

[George]

the nw is pretty dismal, why the silly house prices for market towns, and some old run down manufacturing towns?

[Mr Joe]

Just trawled throught the Lancs evening post (Fridays property night). Reduced is definately the buzz word. How many new > £100k properties are listed compared for a few months ago!

Prices are still inflated but the volume and reductions in FTB property makes me think its tipped and heading down no question.

Mr Joe.

[George]

saturated with BTL's. Winkley squares aparments cost like 168k for a 1bed LOL, fair play kinda nice but London prices in Preston. 2 bedroom cost 289k!

[simon99]

I remember those Winckley Square ones when they were built, they were a joke at around 140k + 10k for a parking space. Never mind 289k. 5 years ago flats would struggle to fetch over 30k in Preston.

[George]

www.rowland.co.uk

u can look on there, they are pretty big but 289k is absolutely taking the piss imo. For that you can buy:

a 2 bedroom condo -fully serviced with saunas the works at the torch in dubai totalling 1200sqft with massive balcony - faces the ocean and marina ffs.

+

2 bedroom condo in Florida.

Preston > Dubai+Florida = ********

england lost the plot a long time ago.

Edited July 12, 2005 by George

[George]

buckshaw villages - more houses for sale (straight after purchase)? and more BTL. LOL this is getting good.

[Noseyparker]

Hmmm, no more reduced priced I'm afraid.  Attached are the LR figures for the North West. Figures are very very good if you are a seller or a homeowner.  NO negative figures where in other regions there are bad figures aplenty.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sale prices may be up but transaction figures for Apr-June are down a third on 2004.Land registry

[Catch22]

Hmmm, no more reduced priced I'm afraid.  Attached are the LR figures for the North West. Figures are very very good if you are a seller or a homeowner.  NO negative figures where in other regions there are bad figures aplenty

All data is by definition historical, and in regard to Land Reg data this can be way out as to what is happening here and now. See OurProperty post

quote the post:

These were all the new records that the Land Registry gave us in its most recent update. As you can see, some of the sales go back as far as February 2004, which gives you an idea of how long it can take for some sales to be recorded with the LR.

Hence using raw historic data can be very misleading.

Edited August 20, 2005 by Catch22