Cardiff On The Up!

[TylerDurden]

This link on the property watch section of BBC is saying Cardiff prices have risen in the last quarter by 3.5%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/houses.stm

This is bad news for me. I, like most of us on here am waiting to buy. It also shows overall they are down 3.4% anually. so the trend is down. What could possibly be pushing the prices up in the last few months? I dont think unemployment levels have hit Cardiff to hard so maybe thats factor. Or maybe us Welshys realy are thick? I'm really hoping to see a drop in the next few months.

How long do people expect these rises to last? As if really fancy a change of scenery andsome better furniture, i may look for somewhere nicer to rent.

[Dopamine]

I noticed this as well. Maybe an artefact of higher volume low end sales to FTBs able to scrape together £10-£15K deposits?

I can't see any prices going up where I'm looking in CF. Trouble is, it gives the idiot vendors ideas and means that their properties will be 'on the market' even longer.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...s-its-roar.html

[Pricia Thai]

Just had a look at the Land Registry website for Cardiff. Here are some average prices:

March 2008: £157,181

December 2008: £143,602

March 2009: £139, 583

So they seem to be going down significantly, over the last year and the last quarter. But the BBC says that their figures (which are very, very different) are supplied by the Land Registry.

Can anyone explain the difference?

[carrera]

Just had a look at the Land Registry website for Cardiff. Here are some average prices:

March 2008: £157,181

December 2008: £143,602

March 2009: £139, 583

So they seem to be going down significantly, over the last year and the last quarter. But the BBC says that their figures (which are very, very different) are supplied by the Land Registry.

Can anyone explain the difference?

Cardiff is beginning to drop significantly - let's not forget that repossessions and auctions are not included in the stats.

I have been looking at two houses recenlty in the upper brackets and the prices being batted around are at least 20%-30% below 2007 peak.

Personally I think Wales has one of the biggest bubbles around - you look at what you can buy in Bristol (where wages are on the average higher) for similray money; Cardiff etc then look very over valued ... which means ones thing ... a massive relaignment which is exactly what happened in the later part of the 1990's crash once the public sector cut backs began..

[Mal Volio]

Just had a look at the Land Registry website for Cardiff. Here are some average prices:

March 2008: £157,181

December 2008: £143,602

March 2009: £139, 583

So they seem to be going down significantly, over the last year and the last quarter. But the BBC says that their figures (which are very, very different) are supplied by the Land Registry.

Can anyone explain the difference?

It's because the LR trend data track the fate of specific houses. The BBC just compare the LR average sold price at different times, which is very mix-sensitive.

[Pricia Thai]

Thanks Mal Volio. Following your suggestion, I found this site, which explains things quite well:

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...&cat=44-0-0

But if the Land Registry's HPI is the most accurate, why does the BBC use what seems to be a less sophisticated and less useful way of calculating prices? The LR website certainly suggests that its HPI is better than the system the BBC uses, even if the BBC uses raw LR data.

[The Masked Tulip]

Personally I think Wales has one of the biggest bubbles around - you look at what you can buy in Bristol (where wages are on the average higher) for similray money; Cardiff etc then look very over valued ... which means ones thing ... a massive relaignment which is exactly what happened in the later part of the 1990's crash once the public sector cut backs began..

Ditto Swansea.

[sparkle-space]

Personally I think Wales has one of the biggest bubbles around - you look at what you can buy in Bristol (where wages are on the average higher) for similray money; Cardiff etc then look very over valued ... which means ones thing ... a massive relaignment which is exactly what happened in the later part of the 1990's crash once the public sector cut backs began..

Ditto Swansea.

Ditto Aberystwyth area. I have several friends in the Manchester area (and not just the scummy bits) and am shocked at how low house prices are there compared to Aberystwyth. In terms of size etc. they are not comparable towns, but the jobs market in Aber is limited, wages are low etc. which you would have expected to keep prices lower. Second home owners are partly to blame or is it another case of paying for the view?

[carrera]

Ditto Aberystwyth area. I have several friends in the Manchester area (and not just the scummy bits) and am shocked at how low house prices are there compared to Aberystwyth. In terms of size etc. they are not comparable towns, but the jobs market in Aber is limited, wages are low etc. which you would have expected to keep prices lower. Second home owners are partly to blame or is it another case of paying for the view?

What surprises me is the number of quality houses that are lying empty and up for rent but not for sale in the Cardiff area - there are also a few that are for sale or to let - which leads me to think the owner needs to bail out as they either can`t remortgage, have to relocate, or can`t afford to sell at a lower price and are awaiting the recovery - by renting it the logic is that they would keep their heads above water..

Turning to Swansea I see a few quality properties are starting to come down to realistic values - and some unfinished new builds are up for auction (on John Francis wesbsite) - perhaps the ripples are lapping at the Welsh shore ??

Had a phone call the other day about a house we viewed in March at £990k, they will now take £800k ... told them take off another 25% pay the duty and i`ll come and have another look. "oh it won`t drop that low ... then I pointed out that they have dropped the price nearly £300k since peak in 2007... and the sale price may be out of their hands if the market continues to drop... "

I really think that we are about to take the next leg down in a big way - and a few developers are about to get their collars felt by way of a margin call ... in the meantime i`ll just keep building my deposit .. the mortgage free dream house may yet be a possibility !

[Dopamine]

Bump on this post. I'm now seeing price increases on properties where I'm looking in Cardiff. Also a lot more going SSTC.

House prices have stabilised and further significant falls, if any, seem unlikely for at least 6 months. My resolve is wavering and I will probably buy in the next few months - worn out with it all to be honest.

[gus]

Bump on this post. I'm now seeing price increases on properties where I'm looking in Cardiff. Also a lot more going SSTC.

House prices have stabilised and further significant falls, if any, seem unlikely for at least 6 months. My resolve is wavering and I will probably buy in the next few months - worn out with it all to be honest.

And to add to the pain ; did you see the article in the prop/sec of the FT on the week-end ? . About the moving to St Athan of an educational establishment and add-ons, aligned and associated with the army/navy so bringing in thousands of jobs to the Vale. The effects on prices which are already high in places like C'bridge, Ogmore, Barry etc. I really don't want to think about at the moment.

[ScaredEitherWay]

And to add to the pain ; did you see the article in the prop/sec of the FT on the week-end ? . About the moving to St Athan of an educational establishment and add-ons, aligned and associated with the army/navy so bringing in thousands of jobs to the Vale. The effects on prices which are already high in places like C'bridge, Ogmore, Barry etc. I really don't want to think about at the moment.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/72c4506a-7ca2-11...bdc0,s01=1.html

Seems to be a lot of opposition to it though.

[gus]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/72c4506a-7ca2-11...bdc0,s01=1.html

Seems to be a lot of opposition to it though.

That's the article, but it said nothing, as I recall, about local opposition. Assume you mean from the local residents, who are likely well-heeled and well connected, with some clout. Certainly hope they can tightly contain.

House prices from Penarth to Ogmore along that coast (and inland to C'bridge) are already totally insane. No further boost needed or wanted.

[Dopamine]

Update on Cardiff for those interested. Where I'm looking (CF15), there is a definite increase in both activity and asking prices, with most back to 2007 levels (above in some cases, since the peak here seems to have been 2006).

There's very little for sale and most that is is too compromised to be attractive (location, condition). The market does seem incredibly frothy to the extent that I've seen two instances where asking prices for 2 identical properties have been 30-50K apart - madness. There does seem to be a real attempt by one agent to push asking prices right back up to peak levels on the back of a recent pick up in interest.

Sold prices on the LR are scant - hardly anything is actually going through - those that are seem to mainly be lower end terraces or £400K up stuff. At my wits end with it all tbh.

[reggie]

There does seem to be a real attempt by one agent to push asking prices right back up to peak levels on the back of a recent pick up in interest.

Wouldn't happen to begin with m and end with a y by chance? They do seem to have the monopoly round here. I'm seeing the same as you - it's pretty depressing. There is very little coming on the market and that which does around CF15 seems overpriced and often needing considerable work. I've given up trying to fathom out why this little part of Cardiff appears immune from any drops.

[mikew]

im looking in north cardiff and its frustrating to say the least.. not a lot coming on the market and lots of crap been sitting for a long time with prices not lowering. Viewing a 5 bedder for 400k thinking of making a cheeky offer for 300 to see what happens.. think I know what will happen, but tbh thats all its worth. I can't see how the relatively poor local incomes support such high prices.

[reggie]

im looking in north cardiff and its frustrating to say the least.. not a lot coming on the market and lots of crap been sitting for a long time with prices not lowering. Viewing a 5 bedder for 400k thinking of making a cheeky offer for 300 to see what happens.. think I know what will happen, but tbh thats all its worth. I can't see how the relatively poor local incomes support such high prices.

We viewed a house last week in similar area- on for 350k, needs lots of work; realistically should be going for 270k max. Tempted to put in an offer - mentioning that an identical one went for 280k in 2007 (bit baffled by that as it didn't come on open market and at that price would have had a lot clamouring for it), plus the amount of work needed. However, like you I can guess the response.

[Dopamine]

Crazy but I can't see a trigger for a fall.

CF15 is as expensive as some london suburbs (and certainly on a par with most of the south east).

Radyr in particular is ridiculously expensive - as people have said a lot of stuff is estate disposal and often needs a lot of work - but by god they won't negotiate.

[reggie]

Radyr in particular is ridiculously expensive - as people have said a lot of stuff is estate disposal and often needs a lot of work - but by god they won't negotiate.

We viewed a 2 bed bungalow in a village near Radyr - part of an estate - has been on for the best part of a year - you could almost say it needs demolishing or total gutting and extension. The word 'potential' was mentioned time and again; but they want £250k for it (after originally putting it on at £300k) and they do not seem to be budging from that figure. Like you I've given up wondering how long this can go on, it just seems to be defying all logic.

[steveljohn]

The prices are houses in cardif is gets high.i was trying to move somewhere else.

[Dopamine]

We viewed a 2 bed bungalow in a village near Radyr - part of an estate - has been on for the best part of a year - you could almost say it needs demolishing or total gutting and extension. The word 'potential' was mentioned time and again; but they want £250k for it (after originally putting it on at £300k) and they do not seem to be budging from that figure. Like you I've given up wondering how long this can go on, it just seems to be defying all logic.

I've just bought one. Fed up with waiting. I reckon that finding a 'bargain' in CF15 might take years and you'd have to be in the right place at the right time. The turnover here is just too small, and seems entirely dependent on deaths and divorces, with the odd 'trade up' here and there. Not a gamble I feel I can make, especially given the fact that most of the property here would be out of my price range even if the economy was so bad that everyone became unemployed, overnight.

I got it for 2003 price, although it needs quite a bit of work. I suspect that in some period in the next few years it may be worth 2001 price, but my stress levels can't take this ongoing uncertainty and insecurity.

Hope you get what you want at as low a price as possible. I'll continue to hang around here because I'm a masochist at heart!

[Fuzzy Duck]

Dopamine,

I guess congrats are in order.

I think most people end up buying more for personal reasons that economic ones. We had to buy several years ago, to satisfy OH's nesting instinct.

[reggie]

I've just bought one. Fed up with waiting. I reckon that finding a 'bargain' in CF15 might take years and you'd have to be in the right place at the right time. The turnover here is just too small, and seems entirely dependent on deaths and divorces, with the odd 'trade up' here and there. Not a gamble I feel I can make, especially given the fact that most of the property here would be out of my price range even if the economy was so bad that everyone became unemployed, overnight.

I got it for 2003 price, although it needs quite a bit of work. I suspect that in some period in the next few years it may be worth 2001 price, but my stress levels can't take this ongoing uncertainty and insecurity.

Hope you get what you want at as low a price as possible. I'll continue to hang around here because I'm a masochist at heart!

Good Luck to you - if we could get one at 2003 prices we'd probably go for it. Did you end up buying in Radyr or one of the niehgbouring villages? I agree with you regarding bargains in this area - they seem few and far between.

[Dopamine]

Thanks for the congratulations (you haven't seen the size of my mortgage )

It's just outside Radyr, Reggie.

I now have a happy wife and an unhappy savings account! I feel the fear whenever she sits down with a catalogue and as for John Lewis......