If Anyone's Interested

[R K]

Brave call with Noel.

You must be feeling either pretty certain or pretty angry with him. I hope it's the former - I'm looking forward to seeing the proprietary trading system in action. Can you do something about oil for me while you're at it?

Good Lord no. Tongue firmly in cheek.

Oil - Same old really isn't it?

[R K]

Btw, I think Jazz club may be using a monthly (and weekly) SAR (Stop and reverse) as the basis (or even perhaps just as it is) buy/sell trigger (what he calls trade triangles).

http://stockcharts.c...s:parabolic_sar

He mentions it in some of the videos.

http://club.ino.com/...000000-dollars/

'Perfect Portfolio'. SPX (SPY); Gold (GLD), WTIC (USO ETF), EURO/USD (FXE ETF) - simply weighted 25%.

Edited October 17, 2009 by Red Karma

[R K]

http://blogs.ft.com/economistsforum/2009/10/zero-interest-rate-policy-treatment-may-be-expensive-as-the-crisis/

Spamming - ho hum.

Volaflation oh wise one..............

It strikes me they're doing exactly what they did going into this crisis. i.e. All on the same side of the trade. In that case it was securitisation. In this case it's ZIRP and transferring debt onto the taxpayer.

Without wanting to go all NWO, we would appear to now have a de facto one world (or perhaps Two World - with China) govt. by the central banks, nominally supported by their placeman in govt. I am more and more of the opinion that globalisation of capital flows is 100% incompatible with National or even regional govt. These boys are going to serve up some sort of agreed 'fix' which will no doubt include China and India as a fait accompli on the basis that since the govts. are more or less democratically elected they have a mandate (Similar to EU policy).

I just can't see how free capital flows are compatible with democracy. See Iceland, Ireland, Eastern Europe (and as the article mentions - Latin America) for details.

I guess we may see some CBs move slightly earlier or later than others, but for all intents and purposes they're all the same. Banksters now (if they didn't already) rule the world.

What's to be done eh?

[R K]

Well I still like this one........CPC MACD - (ignore the actual price chart itself).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32323342302

As I pointed out at the time it had a look of 13th July about it, which was why I was cautious. We can now see what happened. Price tends not to fall heavily with the red line below the horizontal (famous last words haha). But ultimately price is everything.

Also UPS:SPX has not yet turned up having fallen for several weeks now - so if that continues to lead by a few weeks, then the bottom is still at least 2-3 weeks off.

Sticking to our cycle low timeframe.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Ive been watching the markets from the sidelines the last couple of months apart from a long term put to see how it develops and looking for a decent high probability area to start putting non option shorts on. I think theres a good chance we may see the end of this bear rally this week. If i was a betting man id be looking at around thursday. To me nearly all the western markets are developing an ending rally or C wave since mid July. but there are a few tell tale signs that im looking to confirm this week.

Fridays close created a number of potential RSI divergences on most of the weekly time frame indices

Mid Sep thru start Oct most of the western markets CAC,DAX, FTSE have traced out clear triangles which are always penultimate moves in the trend and are clear warnings of an upcoming reversal in trend of the same degree.

FTSA 250 since Dec 08 has traced out a text book impulse wave that can be channelled perfectly at the bottom of W2 & W4 with a parallel line thru W4 and W5 targetting circa 9960 - Its also pretty much identical to the 61% Fib retracement target of the entire down move since 2007

Nikkei I cant really put a proper count to this one but will be looking for it to double top at 10770 at same time as FTSE250 reaches target

Dow - ive been watching this wondering whether it would be possible to fill it and it looks as if it may well do so at the same time the other markets are reaching their targets. The dow has an unfilled candle gap down Oct 3rd/5th 2008 at 10.303. Hopefully this will get filled

If all the above targets are reached at around the same time along with Dax and Cac reaching Fridays highs again to Double top it will be too strong a coincidence for me not to go heavily short

Also from a pure phsychology point of view this site is a great barometer, there are so many bears who have turned bullish or are now doubting themselves for various reasons, that to me is a great sentiment indicator of an imminent reversal ahead.

Edited October 18, 2009 by Tamara De Lempicka

[R K]

As no one is watching our speculative nonsense I'll post something for the brothers.

Excellent!

The wrong one, obviously.

I was going to see your Pete Seeger and raise you a Bob Dylan but looks like he's got youtube covered.

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

Had I said that NYSI had gone back to a 'sell' too? Daily crossed back under 10 dma. Giving too many conflicting signals right now but the shape still looks good.

Slow sto looks menacing.

http://www.aleablog.com/technical-analysis-around-the-world/

[Mr. Cholmondley-Warner]

As you know I don't know anything about technical analysis and all that but watch this thread with interest

Just been looking at is anything happening thread on the main forum and question raised about which forecaster commanded respect and Free Trader mentioned Jeremy Grantham

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=128205&st=30

Did a bit of googling as well and post link to a quarterly letter its very interesting, sometimes useful to look back and put some context to the last few months. I rather liked his comments about investors waiting for a turn in the market and the paragraph on Plan A, B and C for investing. Just food for thought

BTW you can also read the end of the letter which comments on resources constraints, that rather than the current financial crisis ios what is truly scarey. I am trying to stop reading Steve Cooks post to stop me shitting myself

Edit: Link added http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_2Q09.pdf

Edited October 21, 2009 by Unknown

[Mr. Cholmondley-Warner]

Couple articles form Shedlock also for RK on Dollar/Gold

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/on-us-dollar-europe-sings-classic.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/three-yahoo-tech-tickers-deflation-gold.html

[R K]

As you know I don't know anything about technical analysis and all that but watch this thread with interest

Just been looking at is anything happening thread on the main forum and question raised about which forecaster commanded respect and Free Trader mentioned Jeremy Grantham

http://www.housepric...ic=128205&st=30

Did a bit of googling as well and post link to a quarterly letter its very interesting, sometimes useful to look back and put some context to the last few months. I rather liked his comments about investors waiting for a turn in the market and the paragraph on Plan A, B and C for investing. Just food for thought

BTW you can also read the end of the letter which comments on resources constraints, that rather than the current financial crisis ios what is truly scarey. I am trying to stop reading Steve Cooks post to stop me shitting myself

Excellent link and paper from Jeremy Grantham. I'd missed that in the main forum (it's so much less readable now sadly and easy to miss stuff) - thanks to Freetrader too.

Thanks for posting that - one of the most interesting and well thought out articles I've read for months. So in essence he called a top of around 1000-1100 by year end (my words) which is where we're at now, followed by a long slow death and unlikely to see new inflation adjusted highs for up to 20 years! (When younger readers are grandparents).

Looks like I need a new day job!

I'll read the resource stuff and Mish's links tomorrow. (But for the record I mostly sh1t myself on a daily basis even without reference to Steve Cook's threads).

[R K]

Thanks. Shouldn't encourage me.

RK's FTSE:XBP ratio looking good (macd that is).

http://stockcharts.c...id=p53219705828

Oh go on. You know you wan't to.

I'm wondering where the next cycle low may be on that chart. Somewhere between 27 and 29 looks plausible if we are still in a rising market. That fits with 4600-4800 with sterling around current levels. I'd imagine we'll see sterling move too though. It's starting to get more interesting.

Edited October 21, 2009 by Red Karma

[R K]

Crazy folk hippy.

I was originally looking at various ratios looking for evidence of swing cycles (to tie in with the apparent average 17 week swing cycle), as one does, FTSE relative to gold, WTIC and so on, and wanted to adjust the FTSE for the effect of movements in sterling. I thought the simplest way was FTSE:XBP. Mostly because it's readily available. So that's the well thought out logic behind it I'm afraid. Ham and I had some rather tortuous discussion a couple of weeks ago about the validity of this but in the end my A levels maths failed me and I went for a cup of tea instead. If you really want to punish yourself it's still back there on this thread.

What it appears to do is amplify the effect of the cycles. One could delve into the fundamental reasons for that. Please do. All thinking and criticism welcomed. I was simply looking at the pictures. I think I originally put up a bog standard 20ema/50sma chart but I do 'borrow' chart templates and switch the subjects around frequently so it's easy to end up with various settings (you should see my desk).

In any event, we appear to have had a succession of lower low/highs into '08 as you'd expect and now higher low/highs into '09. One interesting current aspect is how the recent jump in sterling has coincided with FTSE staying higher but suppressed the ratio so we still appear to be developing a cycle top. I'm obviously interested in where/when we get the next low.

http://stockcharts.c...id=p91030692959 daily

http://stockcharts.c...id=p33378986948 weekly

Edited October 21, 2009 by Red Karma

[R K]

That's it, any credibility we might have left is completely wrecked now.

I was going for the Mervyn King approach. Put it out there in the historical record just in case................no-one can say they weren't given ample warning.

Edit: Just thinking forward - Since sterling's rise is bringing the ratio down, we have the next BoE meeting on 4/5th November, and Freetrader has pointed out a sizeable gilts auction the next day in his gilts thread. May be relevant to the sterling part of the equation in the cycle? First two weeks in Nov again.

Edited October 21, 2009 by Red Karma

[R K]

Jack's Wrap interesting for the change today....

http://www.swingtrad....com/jackswrap/

Do you think he's reading our stuff?

"These events put together tell us the likelihood is for some weeks of selling overall. Not every day but overall."

He had a pretty strong bearish bias there didn't he?

Twitchy twitchy.

I don't know if you read this blog that I link to on mine but I like the counter balance it provides....

http://financialphil...her-people.html

Are you suggesting this thread is like our 'Hotel' in No Exit?

Edited October 22, 2009 by Red Karma

[R K]

Ive been watching the markets from the sidelines the last couple of months apart from a long term put to see how it develops and looking for a decent high probability area to start putting non option shorts on. I think theres a good chance we may see the end of this bear rally this week. If i was a betting man id be looking at around thursday. To me nearly all the western markets are developing an ending rally or C wave since mid July. but there are a few tell tale signs that im looking to confirm this week.

Fridays close created a number of potential RSI divergences on most of the weekly time frame indices

Mid Sep thru start Oct most of the western markets CAC,DAX, FTSE have traced out clear triangles which are always penultimate moves in the trend and are clear warnings of an upcoming reversal in trend of the same degree.

FTSA 250 since Dec 08 has traced out a text book impulse wave that can be channelled perfectly at the bottom of W2 & W4 with a parallel line thru W4 and W5 targetting circa 9960 - Its also pretty much identical to the 61% Fib retracement target of the entire down move since 2007

Nikkei I cant really put a proper count to this one but will be looking for it to double top at 10770 at same time as FTSE250 reaches target

Dow - ive been watching this wondering whether it would be possible to fill it and it looks as if it may well do so at the same time the other markets are reaching their targets. The dow has an unfilled candle gap down Oct 3rd/5th 2008 at 10.303. Hopefully this will get filled

If all the above targets are reached at around the same time along with Dax and Cac reaching Fridays highs again to Double top it will be too strong a coincidence for me not to go heavily short

Also from a pure phsychology point of view this site is a great barometer, there are so many bears who have turned bullish or are now doubting themselves for various reasons, that to me is a great sentiment indicator of an imminent reversal ahead.

Welcome - You'll fit in well around here.

[R K]

An interesting article from Adam Hamilton (Zeal) on 'Relativity' and the 200 dma. Something to ponder whilst the market paint is drying.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14272.html

[R K]

Oh dear we are still in recession. What a surprise. NOT.

Longest recession since records began etc etc. Even the Beeb headline has used the 'recession' word again instead of 'downturn'. Brown facepalm this morning I suspect, followed by calls for more stimulus, extension to the VAT cut perhaps, more bankster lending bashing....Just in time for the crucial Xmas retial period too. Gift for the Tories though.

Okay I've done the hard work - do you want to fill with a plot of rSPX over time?

Too kind. I'm wondering how it differs from a 200dma bollinger band (i.e. roughly 40 weeks). What's the difference between a standard deviation and a % deviation? How's your maths? (I'm going for a cup of tea obviously)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p74914984751

[R K]

Well clearly that's obvious. The standard deviation is the deviation from standard.

It is a measure of volatility. It's a bell shaped curve of distribution. The wider the Bollinger bands the greater the distribution or variation of expected prices in any one day. Because historically that is the behaviour that the prices have displayed...and therefore it is based on more than one days' price readings.

A % deviation is a % difference at a point in time. The graph will be jaggedy - not smoothe like standard deviation.

(put my overheated o-level brain away now)

I was rather hoping you'd have found a ready made indicator by now. . Ok, so my calculator says gold for instance is currently around +12.5% (near the 'extreme' point of 15%, but obviously with a rising 200 dma of approx 1.5% rise per month). rSPX is around +19.7% but I'm beggared if I'm going to work out the entire series so I have no context. I'd almost rather subscribe to Zeal. I suppose I could take a few snapshots at various points.........(for my own personal use obviously).

Edit: Ok, the rSPX intermediate tops since 13th July have been at 16%, 18%, 20% and now 19.7% - roughly.The Oct and March lows around -35%. The more normal swing variations in 07/08 no more than a few % up to 17.5%. So we're still way over the 'norm'. If the 200 dma flattens it will look worse, as I've mentioned quite a few times in the past.

Edited October 23, 2009 by Red Karma

[R K]

lol - I wasn't really expecting you to do that - but that is a good solution to look at previous tops.

Good on yer.

So what's going on with FTSE? Last hurrah? It was up on stronger sterling last week now it's up on weaker sterling and lower gilt yields. Final hurrah or something else?

[R K]

Expectation of loose monetary policy lasting longer on economic weakness.

EDIT: And Sterling weakness could make companies more attractive for buying to johnny foreigner, and overseas earnings by ftse100 companies boosted.

Hmmm.....US stocks 40% overvalued according to this guy. Using cyclically adjusted PE ratio.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/23/79346/the-us-stock-market-is-overvalued-by-40/

[R K]

Roubini - 'crash coming'.

Pretty close to what I think but I think the bubbles will last quite a bit longer before they come crashing down in the face of trend change - (speculative excess moves in opposite direction simply as a result of trend change).

http://www.businessi...in-gold-2009-10

Hasn't he sat on quite a few fences there? No inflation, no depression, at least for 3-4 years, gold won't go up 20-30% it has nowhere to go.

The GLD ETF will, I think, cause the bugs some problems, not least because I'm sure the CBs and their agents will have their fingers in that particular pie.

Did you see the Canadians are now talking about currency intervention? So that's the Asians, Brazil and now Canada. (Can't find the link - think it was FT)

Oh and Russia needs to sell gold to finance its deficit.

http://www.forbes.co...A-UPDATE-3.html

The only driver I see for gold near term is Iran or Pakistan.

EDIT: Is that RK I see dancing along about half way through?

I wish - Like the hat though.

Edited October 24, 2009 by Red Karma

[R K]

Don't think too much - Nadeem (he has several other recent trading 'tips' there too if you search by author)

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14284.html

[R K]

He's not referring to this sort of thing is he?

http://www.hussmanfu...c/wmc091019.htm

Of course they can both be right - but I think nadeem is more likely to get the trade and the timing right.

I couldn't make it to the bottom of that article. I tried. Is that a failing in me or in Mr Hussman, Phd I wonder?

I think what he meant to say was "It'll go up or down - pick one" but I suspect he couldn't charge people very much for that.

[R K]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6xNhksHyXI&feature=PlayList&p=507806734B2E4A7F&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=17

[R K]

Good man!

I'm off to see them tonight in Holmfirth after we beat Liverpool.

She's playing a right handed guitar left handed but still strung right handed. It's not easy when you first borrow other people's. I did that with my first guitar, but my Les Paul is a left-handed one. Pianos are somewhat more tricky............