R K Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Covered remainder of FTSE shorts. May spike lower but we're in the area I'd expect support soon if bull market to continue. Gold and miners getting hammered too. If equities do bounce here they'll be taken out and shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 (edited) Graeme Wearden @graemewearden Athens main stock index has lost 89% of its value since October 2007 (closed at near 20-year low today). Graph: http://******/JbBMtT Georgia's sort of numbers in Athens. (ahh I spot reinforcements - Can I have a break now? ) Edited May 8, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) There are quite a lot of ugly looking head and shoulders You're watching Shrek Live on the telly aren't you? The billionaire landowner has dropped by to remind everyone who they're working for. Edit: Xstrata is the 'classic' bubble chart both in shape and timescale. Which suggests we're in the post-bubble deflationary bust stage (similar to gold in 80s for instance) Edited May 9, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 IBEX having another go at support I think this is where we're either at/close to the interim low or going to see another August '10 panic. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=es%3Aibex&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=7&x=41&y=17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) The excellent John Authers iviews GS chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer 50 year buying opportunity http://video.ft.com/v/1629210541001/50-year-buying-opportunity (interesting timing!) Includes the chart of 30years of globalisation depressing returns to labour whilst increasing returns to capital. Marx would have a field day. Edited May 9, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) Kite flying cover for Merkel? DJ FX Trader @djfxtrader A shift in attitude? Top Bundesbank economist Ulbrich says Germany might consider allowing more inflation. BoE tomorrow, Ben speaking later........... Am looking to start getting long here. Bull market dip. Edited May 9, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 [/url] Linda Yueh @lindayueh 10-year UK bond yield drops to record low 1.881%, lowest since at least 1989 when BBG data began, after new all-time lows in German yields Debt, what debt? https://twitter.com/#%21/lindayueh' rel="external nofollow"> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 [/url] DJ FX Trader @djfxtrader Our exclusive: sources say euro zone debating delaying EUR5.2 billion May 10 payment to Greece. Euro at new three-month lows. The EUSSR equivalent of placing Tsipras' testicles in a vice https://twitter.com/#%21/djfxtrader' rel="external nofollow"> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Macro man seem to be chasing their tails. Now seem to have changed their mind on things. Reacting to immediate news doesn't seem very Macro to me. Oh well, it seems no one is perfect we're finding - even the ones we like. http://macro-man.blo...%28Macro+Man%29 Papandreou's gambit last autumn should not have been so heavily crushed by the EU powers, for that was to be marketed as a referendum on the Euro. The Germans reap what they sow... Best bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) If this call is for a 50 year Bull now, and it works, would you mind if I became your first adherent. I'd readily volunteer to be your foot stool if the job is still vacant. My first?! pah........ I think it's worth noting Mr Goldman Sachs referred to 'long term' not 'short term' quite a few times. I'm not calling a 50 yr bull just yet Perhaps a 2-3 mth interim bounce. But then it could still turn out to be a first wk August '11 bull trap. That one was nasty. p.s. I think the word you're looking for is acolyte and don't forget that I'm following you so there could be some circularity going on here. What I think Grantham might call 'career risk'. Edited May 9, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 TLT:SPY Healthy correction or imminent panic? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT:SPY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54028039697 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Adherent is good. If you want some candles lighting then I'm I'm your man. So acolyte's good too. Anyway, there seems to be a whole litter of Puplava's: http://www.financial...es-setup-bottom I'll take whatever I can get. 'Tis a bit like the Osmonds isn't it. You might be about to get a dead cat bounce and your money back on those GDXJ longs. Y'days gap covered, and a bullish reversal http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p45509258271 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Well, my puts on ung and calls on gdxj are like a perfect storm gone wrong! So I daren't really advise anyone of anything. Just spent an hour watching CNBC on the small telly, while cooking. Incredible shoutiness - "YOU don't want to hear about Spain - THIS is how to make money ..." Then break for gold ads. Back to the shouters. Nat Gas has to be called by its first name - "Nathaniel" - hohoho. Charts showing small producers up ... like alot (no long term reveal). I don't understand how UNG works, but what a fugly sales pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl1 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) The excellent John Authers iviews GS chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer 50 year buying opportunity http://video.ft.com/...ing-opportunity (interesting timing!) Includes the chart of 30years of globalisation depressing returns to labour whilst increasing returns to capital. Marx would have a field day. Does the graph at 4:20 (I was going to paste it but I won't as it's FT), show the stunning redistribution of wealth from labour to corporates since the 2009 crash? That's ubelievable. Edited May 9, 2012 by pl1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WageslaveX14 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Does the graph at 4:20 (I was going to paste it but I won't as it's FT), show the stunning redistribution of wealth from labour to corporates since the 2009 crash? That's ubelievable. Where are the mainstream commentators to bring these developments to a wider audience? The columnists in the Guardian don't have the technical knowledge or sufficient perspective, the Times, Wail, Express and the Telegraph clearly have their corporate, anti-people agenda, and while the Independent sometimes comes out with refreshingly honest articles, I can't work out Lebedev's motivations. Peston gets it, but he's got to maintain the trust of his stellar insider contacts, so he can't go for the kill. I realise that the FT has a bigger print circulation than many of the papers mentioned above, but no matter how political the FT gets, it's not going to change public opinion, or educate those who don't already follow finance. Who's left? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Bundesbank signals softening on inflation - Ralph Atkins ($$$) http://www.ft.com/cms/s/54fa4006-99ed-11e1-accb-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F54fa4006-99ed-11e1-accb-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=#axzz1uRsi7ogx As per my post y'day. The problem I guess is the timing of this. Immediately after Napoleon is binned and during the Greek negotiations. Do they mean it or are they just trying to keep the thing from imploding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) For equities enthusiasts. http://econompicdata...r-long-run.html okay - I feel better now. Must walk dog. . Edited May 10, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) before I go... http://theshortsideo...-condition.html He's still bottom picking metals. He's picked up on the GDXJ reversal I posted y'day. He might finally be getting lucky for a bit of a bounce. Btw, I posted (and tweeted) $40 as a downside target on the GDX a couple of months ago. It's fallen from $57.91 on 29th Feb to $41.10 y'day for a capital obliterating 30% loss in just 10 weeks. 20 Mar Red Knight @redknighttrader #Gold miners GDX continues to make lower highs/lows. Targetting 40 into Q3/4? #gold #gld to follow? #miners 3 Apr Red Knight @redknighttrader #gold now just $10 away from a serious liquidation. In any event needs to add $80 in next couple of weeks to avoid #deathcross #FTSE #boe http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72032861749 #hubris Edited May 10, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) Home equity and household income. Interesting charts on the divergence of house prices v household income post 2000, but even more interestingly the benefit went to higher earners far more than lower income group. http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9211?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SM&utm_campaign=Twitter While the first chart uses aggregate data for the U.S. economy, a more interesting comparison uses disaggregated data for income groups.3 Using Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1995 through 2007, the second chart shows the increase in mean home equity and income for households in three income groups: high income (90th to 100th percentile), middle income (40th to 60th percentile), and low income (0 to 20th percentile).4 Over the period, home equity increased more than gross income for all three groups. The disparity is largest for the high-income group (home equity increased at an annual growth rate of 11.03 percent, compared with 6.86 percent for income) and smallest for the low-income group (home equity increased at an annual growth rate of 7.13 percent, compared with 4.93 percent for income). To the extent that factors other than fundamentals caused the sharp increase in home equity during the early 2000s, this disparity across income groups would suggest that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the housing boom appears to have disproportionately affected higher-income households. However, it is important to remember that low-income households are more likely to have extracted home equity by using nontraditional mortgages and home equity lines of credit, which would also explain the disparity across income groups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Now you've seen it - can you delete that para please. Excellent calls on miners. I wonder how my November calls will do in the end. Can you perhaps tell me? Well if you were to believe that momentum was important then I guess you'd want to wait for a pullback in an uptrend. For the moment we appear to have a retracement (bounce) in a downtrend. Of course if that persists it may eventually turn into a positive uptrend. #timing v momentum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 [/url] 59m spanish stocks +3%, biggest rise in 6 months Corrr............. https://twitter.com/#%21/ReutersJamie/status/200558249974579200' rel="external nofollow"> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) Home equity and household income. Interesting charts on the divergence of house prices v household income post 2000, but even more interestingly the benefit went to higher earners far more than lower income group. http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9211?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SM&utm_campaign=Twitter Is it a sign of growing inequality. More money concentrated at the top means more demand for those type of houses so that bids prices up more? It would be interesting to see the UK version of this one: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-04-06_chart.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 time to dust off the nirp thread sceppie.... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/10/993921/buiter-says-bring-out-the-helicopter/ I know, I know (haven't even managed to read that post yet) - but am run off my little feet right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Hammer on the gdxj chart would be a good signal looking at previous times: 200ma will be down around 25 in a couple of months where it'll probably meet the dead cat bounce. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) http://yanisvaroufak...-trouble-spain/ So, here we have it: Spain is being screwed into the ground so as to, supposedly, impress upon it the 'precarious state of its public finances'. What claptrap! Spain had a surplus in its budget in 2008 and has had a debt-to-GDP rate less than Germany's. Behind Mr Weidmann's subterfuge hides an unfathomable truth: Having gutted the rest of the eurozone for years, by squeezing German price and wage inflation below agreed limits, German policy makers are misrepresenting the cause of the Periphery's woes. Rather than acknowledging the need to europeanise banking supervision, and a part of the eurozone's public debt, they are offering trinkets in the form of an above average inflation rate. Why trinkets? Because, in view of the deflation that is coming to the deficit countries, having German inflation rise above average is as inevitable as it is useless. Edited May 10, 2012 by Banana Monarchy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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