okaycuckoo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 That's a very good point and goes beyond the trickle-down aspects of capitalism I referred to above. There have been large scale protests against the existing system since at least Seattle 1999 and 13 years later it's still business as usual. You have to admire the resilience of the system. It proposes all the same remedies (austerity) as 20 years ago, although all the evidence clearly shows there are superior alternatives (e.g. Russian default in 1998). Those countries in control are exempt through the mechanism of QE. These people will not let go easily, then again neither did Hussain or Suharto to name a just a couple. QE seems to be the best option for powerful interest groups to manage the relative economic decline of the west against the east. I think Nadeem's right, there is a very long programme of QE ahead. No idea about east & west and relative decline. I guess the virus is global, and the emphasis should be on what will happen to people at the bottom. I think China has the same dynamic internally. Came across this from a Marxist called Zizik - he describes what's happening in class terms, but also addresses euro's concern about psychology and how people delude themselves. I've only read it once, and I tend to jump out the window when the word bourgeoisie enters the room, but it's just 4pp and only published last week. Also addresses the protests. Wonder what others think of it: The Revolt of the Salaried Bourgeoisie - http://www.lrb.co.uk/v34/n02/slavoj-zizek/the-revolt-of-the-salaried-bourgeoisie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Tim Bond on equities and possible causes of valuation... http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz1msMaokja Bull run to be powered by low valuations Short term I think this is helpful - unless I'm one of his less smart readers and have misread it: http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/ But macroman doesn't see it happening: 2) Equity Bears will NOT stop trying to argue that earnings will fall as a result of margins contracting from multi-year peaks, but S&P earnings growth will NOT disappoint the consensus of 5.5%.If TMM had a Pound for every time they have heard the argument that earnings have to fall as a result of margins peaking from multi-year peaks, they would have little need to stay in the hedge fund business. http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2012/02/2012-non-predictions-equities.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 The real immorality (if there is one, rather than just a general self inflicted social **** up) is that we have been misinformed as to the actual nature of how the world and money works, under the hood. Once again though, blaming this on TPTB having lied to us is perhaps evidence of people still wanting to wallow in the self delusion that someone is in control of all this. I think the majority of establishment wonks and interest groups have been as surprised by recent events as everyone else and are suffering from the same dissonance as hard working prudent families. It's not the actual events such as Lehman that display who is in control (or not), it is the response to those events. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, simply pointing out that the powerful in any market are in a position to manipulate outcomes to their advantage. A process that has accelerated in the past three years. Take Egypt as an example. It all started off with popular protests but I think I can guess what the outcome will be, and it won't be determined by the protesters who are back on the streets now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 No idea about east & west and relative decline. I guess the virus is global, and the emphasis should be on what will happen to people at the bottom. I think China has the same dynamic internally. Came across this from a Marxist called Zizik - he describes what's happening in class terms, but also addresses euro's concern about psychology and how people delude themselves. I've only read it once, and I tend to jump out the window when the word bourgeoisie enters the room, but it's just 4pp and only published last week. Also addresses the protests. Wonder what others think of it: The Revolt of the Salaried Bourgeoisie - http://www.lrb.co.uk/v34/n02/slavoj-zizek/the-revolt-of-the-salaried-bourgeoisie Maybe the proles are too busy with bread and circuses (X Factor, Facebook etc) to notice? The middle classes are better educated about the situation and have something to lose? IMO for all the talk of the information revolution, both capitalism & communism advocate top-down control (whether corporate or state) and I just see them as two variants of the same model. If communism didn't work then why should I expect capitalism to work either? CEOs are just bureaucrats employed by shareholders instead of the state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 'Osborne urge to cut taxes on business' By, of course, (Atlantic Bridge sponsored) Liam Fox. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/73176578-5cad-11e1-8f1f-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F73176578-5cad-11e1-8f1f-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer= With corporate coffers overflowing one wonders what possible argument he can have for this nonsense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 OK, enough theorising, back to stocks. Nadeem's latest is out, I like his style. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33237.html My favourite quotes: FEAR SELLS, Which is why most of what you read and gravitate towards is fear related at least 90% and perhaps as high as 99% of what is written is by those that do not trade or invest, instead it is written by salesmen of one type or another be it a CEO selling his company on CNBC or a an academic selling his theory or a failed trader selling his latest book or service. All that ordinary people can do is to ride on elite's coat tails, such as riding the great stock market inflation of 2009 onwards and what I see but have not had time to write about is the Great Inflation of the housing markets of the UK and USA of 2012 onwards Stock Market Trend Scenario Forecast ConclusionThe stock market appears to be targeting a trend towards Dow 14k by early May 2012. The immediate trend implies a relatively mild correction is imminent that targets the support trendline of Dow 12,650, which if breached would target a deeper retracement towards Dow 12,300. As things stand the most probable outcome is for a correction towards 12,500. Whilst the big picture is that of a continuing trend higher to Dow 14k at which point the Dow can be expected to experience significant resistance as it approaches a new all time high the subsequent trend for which will become much clearer by that time but which currently implies a significant correction is likely during May which matches both the seasonal tendency (sell in may and go away) as well as likely approaching the finale to the Greek Tragedy (markets act before the event) namely exit from the euro-zone and a deepening Euro-zone recession. This supports the very long-term technical analysis which currently implies it will take some time for the Dow to break and hold to a new all time high. BOTTOM LINE - Short-term correction followed by Uptrend to Dow 14,000 by Late April / Early May 2012. So the crash is always coming crowd will be wrong for a few more months. My strategy - I have already cut my net long exposure to the stock market from about 38% of assets (Dec 18th) to 18% today (as I said I would in December), and will likely continue to cut towards about 12% by late April / Early May as it does look like its going to get a lot tougher for stocks from then onwards, after all we are now in a maturing 3 year bull market. Now watch the bears continue to turn bullish over the next few months as small investors start to pile in just as the market puts in a significant peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 ayeee Been accumulating April puts over the last couple of weeks, overall the risk reward is great, the lack of volatility makes them cheap as chips and the majority of risk is on the downside at around these levels and the technical divergences are potentially kicky as in May 10 with the so called flash crash. I guess we'll see whether it turns out to be an April fool There seems to be very fine line between modest pullbacks, full-on corrections and the conditions required for another so called flash crash. The window for a possible repeat of May '10 looks to be the next 5-15 trading days. Perhaps first week of March as best guess - is that more or less what you're seeing too? (Own prop. research) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 (edited) The stock market started its reverse today. I think you'll find that last year - May 1 - when they murdered Osama, it was the high in mkt for a few years. Same as today. FTSE, as of right now, is same as 6 Feb, even though AAPL parabolic* and Greece, er, sorted. *Maybe because its gone parabolic. Edited February 22, 2012 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 OK, enough theorising, back to stocks. Nadeem's latest is out, I like his style. My favourite quotes: Quote All that ordinary people can do is to ride on elite's coat tails, such as riding the great stock market inflation of 2009 onwards and what I see but have not had time to write about is the Great Inflation of the housing markets of the UK and USA of 2012 onwards I can relate to US. But not UK. No way. How dare I comment on house prices on this thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Impact of the rising oil price on China/India. Asia overtook North America as biggest consumer in 2007 and consumes twice as much as Europe. (it appears article was written just before China cut RRR) http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/02/17/guest-post-beware-oil-at-120-a-barrel/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I can relate to US. But not UK. No way. How dare I comment on house prices on this thread? I can't see how the largest ever housing boom could be followed by another without first deflating the original (like has occurred in the US). I think the best outcome for UK HPI optimists is stagnation. Of course the best outcome for me is somewhat less rosy than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Michael Pettis - When will China emerge from the global crisis? http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02/when-will-china-emerge-from-the-global-crisis/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/22/892201/why-mmt-is-like-an-autostereogram/ MMT and 'that' chart (Sceppy's already on the case) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 the creeping phenomenon of 'nothing left to say' http://macro-man.blo...%28Macro+Man%29 Either everything goes to hell in a hand basket (quote ZH all day) or it isn't and quote err... Actually this is another important point -The blogosphere has a massive skew to end-of-the-worldness. Those that have lost all interest just don't even bother with reading blogs at all. How many people actually have their opinions changed by what they read, rather than reinforced? Maybe it's just us but at the moment there appears to be little interest in either reading or writing and opinions of quality are either not being expressed or people have nothing to say. Like us.So what do we do? We aren't going to write reams of boring research, that's what research people do and get paid for, so we will leave it to them. We aren't going to list our portfolios because that's our business, so we are left either with the light-hearted pieces to fill the time (which, to be honest, are the bits we enjoy most) or we don't write anything. As you might have guessed this is why posts have dried up to an extent. Sounds like a plan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Obama corporate tax plan: Cuts rate to 28% from 35% Economic commentary 16:30 22-02-2012 Says: - Reduce deductibility of interest for corporations. - Pay for lower corporate tax rate with cuts to oil and gas benefits - Proposes to cut ‘LIFO’ accounting method, insurance company deductions, carried interest break for private equity fund managers - Proposes reducing deductibility of interest for companies to cut bias toward debt financing - Plan would require companies to pay a minimum tax on overseas profits earned in low-tax countries - Plan would remove tax break for moving production overseas, while giving companies 20% tax credit to move operations back to the US Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 There seems to be very fine line between modest pullbacks, full-on corrections and the conditions required for another so called flash crash. The window for a possible repeat of May '10 looks to be the next 5-15 trading days. Perhaps first week of March as best guess - is that more or less what you're seeing too? (Own prop. research) Disappointing LTRO2 on Wednesday 29th Feb? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 (edited) the creeping phenomenon of 'nothing left to say' Hypersensitivity to perceived reality is a hallmark of autism and schizophrenia. Its a widespread social disease right now, but I reckon its just all of us previously relatively isolated humans getting used to 24/7 internet and the hugely increased velocity of opinion. Experiencing 'nothing to say' and 'don't care right now, more interested in my petunias' moments, is IMO a sign of a healthy mind. Macroman will be back with new insights and witticisms before too long, I'd wager. [Edit to add: Sometimes I worry that you guys spend too long looking at charts and trying to map the unknowable, but then again I get the sense you are not taking it all that seriously anyway. On a scale of 1 to 10, how much do you guys really care?] Edited February 23, 2012 by scepticus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 how much do you guys really care? About.......? Can I refer you to my post of the majestic Mont Blanc a couple of pages ago. I know nothing except the fact of my ignorance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 (edited) Cameron attacking anyone who criticises the warped incentives, the cartels, the skimmers and scammers, the socialisation of losses, the multi-million bonus pools, the destruction of real wages, the criminality, the phone hacking, the slave labour and so on David Cameron is to mount a defence of business in a speech later, saying attacks on wealth creators are motivated by "snobbery".The prime minister will urge people to resist the "dangerous rhetoric" of those who say business is inherently self-interested and cannot be trusted. Business is the "most powerful force" for social progress, he will argue. A very shabby attempt to change the narrative by attacking those who dare hold the corporates to account. He's completely out of step on this, and if he cared to read Andy Haldane's papers on the banks and their warped incentives he'd realise this. One must conclude he's being very badly advised (or attempting to placate idiots like Redwood and Fox). http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-17136069 Edited February 23, 2012 by Red Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I only make our living that way. But I know it's not important. Sure, but I don't for example worry about every possible facet of the semiconductor industry and diligently scrutinise the likely future path of my career therein - because its impossible! I restrict my focus where it can make a difference. Not so easy for you - what is your coping strategy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 He is thinking back to the glory days of the Tories in 70's and 80's where the issue was considered to be the Unions. Well he is a Tory MP! That's what tory MPs do. Comes back to what we were saying earlier about people of all ideological stripes being adrift in a world which has invalidated their foundational assumptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 (edited) Faisal Islam @faisalislam Companies > countries. How multinationals are rated better credits than nation states. Via @davidmwessel pic.twitter.com/kiSKA43F Great chart. Perhaps Cameron meant to say 'it's time for corporates to stop this snobbishness and get behind nation states' What is their purpose? Why do they have a hegemony afforded to them in the tax system, limited liability, actual or pseudo monopolistic power, Prime Ministers at their beck and call, exemption from criminal prosecution, and so on........ Perhaps it's time to dispense with this silly notion of nation states and democracy altogether and instead replace it with a global model of Corporate States, with periodic elections by the demos to determine their boards, annual budget setting, annoint their Chairmen as Heads of Corporate States and redefine the map of the world not around national boundaries but around corporate resources. Then Cameron and Osborne would be better aligned with their constituencies. Edited February 23, 2012 by Red Knight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 snip Very good, thanks. I really must watch the entire film sometime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 (edited) Great chart. Perhaps Cameron meant to say 'it's time for corporates to stop this snobbishness and get behind nation states' What is their purpose? Why do they have a hegemony afforded to them in the tax system, limited liability, actual or pseudo monopolistic power, Prime Ministers at their beck and call, exemption from criminal prosecution, and so on........ Perhaps it's time to dispense with this silly notion of nation states and democracy altogether and instead replace it with a global model of Corporate States, with periodic elections by the demos to determine their boards, annual budget setting, annoint their Chairmen as Heads of Corporate States and redefine the map of the world not around national boundaries but around corporate resources. Then Cameron and Osborne would be better aligned with their constituencies. ahh you mean http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YbQIut3iuw&feature=related&showinfo=0 Edited February 23, 2012 by Tamara De Lempicka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Very good, thanks. I really must watch the entire film sometime. which film is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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